Greyhound Thread

[Oaksnaf]

yeah its great just comparing the two totes you can get $20 plus winners that are 7 or 8 over here on the tote.

im gonna have a break for a while got burnt pretty badly tonight unfortunately was 1 number off about 4 of the trifectas, difference between 1k and -$150.

will turn around soon, will hit a big quaddie for the punters club

oaks im not sure if you have looked at any mandurah form but any advice on what i missed on those 2 races in the quaddies over the last 2 nights would be great

struggling to see where i went wrong. very frustrating week

That's a bit of a bugga Taz.

One way you can understand where you went wrong:

When you have your initial quick glance at the form-guide, you already have a rough idea of your selections.

So write them down in order. From best to worst.
Now study the form extensively, video and paper. Write them down from best to worst.
Now look at the stats that make you consider certain runners. Whether it be "Track/Distance Form" or "Early Speed" or "Win S/R"
Write them down in order again.

If the winning selection pops up inside the top 3-4 in any of your assessments, then clearly you have overlooked something you have seen. Our wonderful memory tends to forget certain things when we are studying. That's why writing them down enables you to have a clearer look at the race, rather than just relying on your memory through study.

Because if you study the race and by the end of the race have forgotten which runner is in which box, well you haven't really given them much thought.....


For instance Traralgon Race 2 yesterday:

1-2-5-8-6-7-4 *paper
5-8-1-6-2-7-4 *video
1-2-8-5-6-7-4 *stats

Then you look at the expert tips and see their comments to find whether you have still missed something.

At the end of the day, you need to understand what is influencing you to make a decision. And if you are overlooking your influences, just because you believe #1 is going to win..... then your selling yourself short of proper analysis. You cannot be bias and you need to be consistent.




The problem is. How much weight do you give to each part of assessment? Welll that will depend on how well they go in the long-term. If your form analysis is incorrect, but your video is good. Then give more weight to your video. If your video is bad (poor results from your market order) but your form and stats are excellent, then take more credit from them.

It's just a matter of understanding what are your major influences when doing the form, and whether they are POSITIVE or NEGATIVE influences. And whether you take them into account enough.

Like Traralgon R8. The winner had 10/12 placings over this track/distance. Yet I ignored it (my influencial stat) because I hadn't seen a recent video. It was still OVERS in my market.... but initially they looked like this:

1-2-7-3-9-4-6-5 (paper)
1-3-6-9-2-7-5-4 (video)
1-2-7-3-6-9-4-5 (stats)
1-2-4-3-7-6-9-5 (experts)


The $20 winner was inside my top 3 on TWO occassions. And I party ignored that.......



BOX stats, Early Speed, Track stats, Interferance, Recent Form, Purple Patches.

Early Speed is a huge factor for Sale 520m boxes, but not so much for 440m. Why? Because 520m starts on a bend, 440m, you have a LONG run until the first corner.

Something to look at......

 

[Oaksnaf]

It would be so much better if they combined their video section into the main form.

Love The Watchdogs 'Browser' form. Very helpful

Yes that is something that they need to include in their Rocket Scientist form-guide. A Race # for the video's.

Good to see a bit of action in the greyhound thread too!!

The Meadows tonight so there is plenty to study for after work.

 

[footyman18]

Dont worry taz! ill keep following your quaddies, you will hit one very soon keep it up

 

[tazlgnd]

cheers for the advice guys

footyman i hope i do i keep getting pretty close

heres one fore cannington tonight only putitng 5 bucks on it just as practice so im sure it will get up haha

2,6:4,8,2:4,8:5,6,7

 

[sblack]

Very disappointed with Devine Ruler in Wentworth Race 3. Dropped in grade and looked a shoo in. Blitzed them from the gates and opened up about 7 lengths, but couldn't run out the distance.

 

[Oaksnaf]

The Meadows Race 5
#4-1-2 $1
#4-2-1 50c
#1-4-2 50c

 

[sblack]

Really like the Blue here.

My insignificant Meadows Quaddie. Tried to get value with 4, one out.

Leg 1: 4
Leg 2: 1,4,5
Leg 3: 1,5
Leg 4: 3,4

 

[sblack]

Gone. Only put $1 on it.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Unlucky in the run there. Fitzy Bale got the clear racing room and jumped perfectly to suit this race.

 

[sblack]

Cannot split 1 and 6 in the next at Wentworth.

Dammit, missed the race. Can't tell what went wrong.

 

[Oaksnaf]

The Meadows Race 6
#5-1-4 $1
#5-1-3 50c
#1-5-4 50c

 

[sblack]

That's better. 6-3 quinella at Wentworth. Should pay nicely with the $6.5 winner

Should be $20+ $5.5 on it, not bad

Double Got S-TAB odds, and got $30.90. Paid $169.95

 

[Oaksnaf]

Monday Greyhounds

Lets study:

Sale Race 8
Cranbourne Race 8
Shep Race 8


That gives us plenty of studying to do.

And the more time we spend studying, the less time we start to look at other bets that are unlikely. Remember though, if we study those three races and we are none the wiser as who is going to win. Then we ignore the exotic bets and focus on the OVERS based on our markets.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Cranbourne Race 8

Now we are going to write our comments for these dogs without looking at the form.

THOUGHTS

#9 Don't really know this dog
#8 Raced well at Traralgon last start
#7 Cat
#6 From memory best is behind
#5 All class
#4 Just keeps on going strong
#3 Don't really know this dog
#2 SCR
#1 Don't really know much apart from can lead

Now we are going to study the form-guide. www.thewatchdog.com.au Rocket Scientist and write a few important factors.


PAPER


#1 Has proven early speed. Looks suited out-wide though. Has 5/8 placings track/distance. Not on form.

#2 SCR

#3 Hasn't really done much of late except burn punters pockets. On the 520m at Cranbourne he will need clearly early as just doesn't have the strength to finish it off.

#4 23/26 placings over track/distance with 12 begins wins. THATS FANTASTIC!! Been racing against strong dogs, and won here recently in 30.48 running home Mantra Lad. Doesn't have the best early speed, but Cranbourne turn is a while from the boxes so won't matter.

#5 3/4 wins at this T/D. Great win at Geelong last start over 600m and you need to be a strong dog to win here at Cranbourne. Also racing against better types recently. Looks good.

#6 3/3 placings T/D. But has been well off the mark recently.

#7 4/5 placings T/D and has been in the money recently. Doesn't have much class and rarely wins/ Needs a lot of lucl.

#8 3/19 career wins. Was strong at Sandown in Sept. Seems suited out-wide and will get plenty of clean racing room early. Will appreciate Cranbourne.


So we are getting a clear picture that #4,5 are going to feature in the money while our 3rd selection is uncertain. Now lets look to the videos' of their last couple of starts. For those that don't save the video's I will show what is available on the website.

VIDEO

#1 2nd Oct Cran R8 #4
#2 SCR
#3 1st Nov Sale R6 #7
#4 2nd Nov Cran R8 #1 // 5th Nov Sand R2 #1
#5 30th Oct Geel R7 #3
#6 No Video's
#7 26th Oct Cran R6 #5 // 30th Oct Horsh R5 #6 // 3rd Nov Sand R10 #3
#8 30th Oct Trara R4 #2
#9 28th Oct Sand R12 #7 // 2nd Nov Geel R6 #2

And now it's off to to view video's and make the comments. And then we can go through the factors to help form a market. C'mon it will be fun!!

 

[bigbunyip14]

the shootout is on this thurs at sandown. im going. i cant wait. who will win?
515m

1) Velocette

3) Turanza Bale

5) Queen Lauryn

7) Cosmic Rumble

I prefer velocette, it loves the box 1.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Since we have watched our video's. Lets write a rough assessment of their box ability.

Early Speed

#1 Middle
#2 SCR
#3 Steady
#4 Steady
#5 Pinger
#6 Middle
#7 Middle
#8 Middle
#9 Good

Racing Pattern

#1 Wide
#2 SCR
#3 Railer
#4 Wide
#5 Railer
#6 Middle
#7 Middle
#8 Middle
#9 Wide

Video Ability

#1 Ran home ok.....
#2 SCR
#3 Fades over 520m at Sale...
#4 STRONG finisher who only needs early luck
#5 Pinger and Strong, can't go wrong.
#6 ???
#7 Keeps trying, which is great.
#8 Ran home ok in 30.06 at Traralgon. Goes straight.
#9 Might lead, but will run off the bend and from box two, might get into trouble.

Racing Patter

Early

>>>>>1
>>>>>>>>9
>>3
>>>>4
>>>>>>>>>5
>>>>6
>>>>>7
>>>>>>8

Middle

>>>>1
>>>>9
>>>>>>3
>>>>>>>4
>>>>>>>>5
>>>>>6
>>>>>>>>7
>>>>>>8

End

>>>>1
>>>>9
>>3
>>>>>>>>>>>>4
>>>>>>>>>5
>>>>6
>>>>>7
>>>>>>>8

 

[Oaksnaf]

Now comes the part where we decide what are influencial factors and come to a conclusion on who we rate from best to worst.

How we do that, and why we give certain odds to certain runners..... well it's subjective. And the only way we will know if we are right, is if we do this over and over and over and over, and the runners that win, win at OVERS in our market. Which means we have assessed a runner and given it a better Win % than the public.

So lets have some thoughts. Spader is strong, loves Cranbourne, but won't lead, so can find trouble. Unlike Lynlea's King, who leads, thats the best spot to be in. All Our Mob, gets good box for early speed, but tends to trek wide on the bend. May have enough room. Pure Range, should be going ok in the middle of the race. Arov's Sphinx.... probably the runner who can upset for 2nd/3rd place here. I give #3,6 no chance.

Only two winning chances in my mind, Spader #5 and Lynlea's King #5.


MARKET:

#5 Lynlea's King $2.50
#4 Spader $4.70
#7 Pure Range $8.50
#9 All Our Mob $10
#8 Arvo's Sphinx $12
#1 I'm All In $18
#6 Really Sweet $33
#3 Salegrey's Gold $65

EXOTIC $2 BET

#5-4-7 $1
#5-4-9 50c
#4-5-7 50c

 

[sblack]

My tips

4-5-1-7

 

[Oaksnaf]

My tips

4-5-1-7

And your thoughts??

 

[half_back_flank]

Hey Oaks, wondering how you work out the early speed, do you just go by the maps on watchdog or do you use the splits as well (or something else)?

 

[Oaksnaf]

Hey Oaks, wondering how you work out the early speed, do you just go by the maps on watchdog or do you use the splits as well (or something else)?

My early speed is based on a number of factors.

Video: Where the dog is positioned early, regardless of how fast early split is

Form: Looking for consistency

Watchdog: This is only an AVERAGE first split map, and each track has a different first split and each distance, this AVERAGE is some-what skewed in my opinion. But is still taken into some consideration

Surepick: They go by PERFECT race scenario's. Good indicator.

Splits: I compare the dogs first split against all first splits on that day, and I try and compare the dogs first split against average first splits for that box


Since I am only just getting enough data, the SPLIT data hasn't really come into a credible source.

 

[sblack]

And your thoughts??

Before my thoughts, the 5 isn't really a railer from what I can see. Seems to like the middle of the track, with a tendency to go wide. In his last start, he lead, but never really got onto the rails. And the previous start to that, got very wide. Don't really see him getting to the rails if he gets his lead, unless he is squeezed down there by an outside box.

I like the 4 to start moderately and then come home over the top. 1 to lead from 5. 5 to take the lead through the middle where it excels.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Before my thoughts, the 5 isn't really a railer from what I can see. Seems to like the middle of the track, with a tendency to go wide. In his last start, he lead, but never really got onto the rails. And the previous start to that, got very wide. Don't really see him getting to the rails if he gets his lead, unless he is squeezed down there by an outside box.

I like the 4 to start moderately and then come home over the top. 1 to lead from 5. 5 to take the lead through the middle where it excels.

Good work.

 

[sblack]

#6 at Richmond R7

Missed the start where he should of lead. 3rd by about 2 lengths

 

[half_back_flank]

My early speed is based on a number of factors.

Video: Where the dog is positioned early, regardless of how fast early split is

Form: Looking for consistency

Watchdog: This is only an AVERAGE first split map, and each track has a different first split and each distance, this AVERAGE is some-what skewed in my opinion. But is still taken into some consideration

Surepick: They go by PERFECT race scenario's. Good indicator.

Splits: I compare the dogs first split against all first splits on that day, and I try and compare the dogs first split against average first splits for that box


Since I am only just getting enough data, the SPLIT data hasn't really come into a credible source.

Thanks Oaks, great answer.

I havent got a surepick subscription, so i've worked out the distances for the first split at watchdog for most tracks...yet it still isn't that accurate. Might look into getting one, or at least trying if for a couple of meets. What other info does surepick have?