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Greyhound Thread
- Thread starter danielz_23
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If you box the selections for any exotic, you would be making profit after over 500 races. Thats Quinella, Exacta, Trifecta, F4. So either one of them if your wanting to follow a race.
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Cheers mate, ill give it a shot. Good luck.
Results After-----DAY 16-----
1st Selection:
477 races:
139 winners
$395.70
275 places
$415.06
2nd Selection:
472 races:
95 winners
$392.60
239 places
$428.62
3rd Selection:
474 races:
64 winners:
$411.70
202 places
$403.96
4th Selection:
475 races:
55 winners
$421.50
209 places
$446.46
Quinella:
OUT $2777
IN $3018.90
Exacta:
OUT $5554
IN $5821.40
Trifecta:
OUT $10848
IN $11594.70
F4:
OUT $10584
IN $15370.60
Quaddies (16/45)
OUT $11520
IN $11074.90
1st Selection:
477 races:
139 winners
$395.70
275 places
$415.06
2nd Selection:
472 races:
95 winners
$392.60
239 places
$428.62
3rd Selection:
474 races:
64 winners:
$411.70
202 places
$403.96
4th Selection:
475 races:
55 winners
$421.50
209 places
$446.46
Quinella:
OUT $2777
IN $3018.90
Exacta:
OUT $5554
IN $5821.40
Trifecta:
OUT $10848
IN $11594.70
F4:
OUT $10584
IN $15370.60
Quaddies (16/45)
OUT $11520
IN $11074.90
I'm in. I've boxed your numbers for $5 tris. Probably not worth my while but let's see what happens
Results
------DAY 17----
1st Selection:
507 races
147 winners
$414.20
299 places
$453.58
2nd Selection:
502 races:
98 winners
$400
249 places
$446.82
3rd Selection:
503 races:
67 winners
$446.40
216 places
$438.06
4th Selection:
505 races
56 winners
$426
217 places
$462.96
Quinella: (238/515)
OUT $2954
IN $3143.70
Exacta: (240/515)
OUT $5908
IN $6074.40
Trifecta: (108/513)
OUT $11550
IN $12248
F4: (34/470)
OUT $11280
IN $16109.20
Quaddie (16/48)
OUT $12288
IN $11074.90
TOT:
OUT $43,980
IN $48,650.20
Yesterday was also the first day where all 1st selections were place-getters. In a place all-up for $1. The return was $181. Which means we have 181 meetings of this all-up before we receive a loss. Long term it is.
I will also get the balll rolling on some LAY stats starting next week. As I think at the moment we have enough of a guide to start making some money through betfair. Not only laying our UNDERS odds on selections, but also laying those short priced runners that arn't in our TOP 4.
At the moment 368/515 winners is 70% roughly. Most of the races that we lose on are from rough results. Like yesterday at Traralgon.
I'll try and write up an easy way to follow the betfair proceedings on what, who and when to LAY.
Nice size BIG 6 jackpot tonight. Hopefully can nab it!
------DAY 17----
1st Selection:
507 races
147 winners
$414.20
299 places
$453.58
2nd Selection:
502 races:
98 winners
$400
249 places
$446.82
3rd Selection:
503 races:
67 winners
$446.40
216 places
$438.06
4th Selection:
505 races
56 winners
$426
217 places
$462.96
Quinella: (238/515)
OUT $2954
IN $3143.70
Exacta: (240/515)
OUT $5908
IN $6074.40
Trifecta: (108/513)
OUT $11550
IN $12248
F4: (34/470)
OUT $11280
IN $16109.20
Quaddie (16/48)
OUT $12288
IN $11074.90
TOT:
OUT $43,980
IN $48,650.20
Yesterday was also the first day where all 1st selections were place-getters. In a place all-up for $1. The return was $181. Which means we have 181 meetings of this all-up before we receive a loss. Long term it is.
I will also get the balll rolling on some LAY stats starting next week. As I think at the moment we have enough of a guide to start making some money through betfair. Not only laying our UNDERS odds on selections, but also laying those short priced runners that arn't in our TOP 4.
At the moment 368/515 winners is 70% roughly. Most of the races that we lose on are from rough results. Like yesterday at Traralgon.
I'll try and write up an easy way to follow the betfair proceedings on what, who and when to LAY.
Nice size BIG 6 jackpot tonight. Hopefully can nab it!
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DAY 18
THE MEADOWS
Race 1 525m GRADE 5
Race 1 525m GRADE 5
#1 OROLOGIO Had no luck last time out at Sandown in a mid-week run over the 515m as was crunched between two runners then spat out wide on the first bend. Was one of the first runners to leave the boxes as the lids opened and after the huge interferance never stopped trying. So you can forgive that run. Gets inside box today which will be beneficial. Has won at Geelong in 26.02. And was nicely placed there in 26.29.
Overall: Some chance. Will be at nice odds.
#2 DANCE FLOOR DIVA Is returning from a month break. Is in excellent kennel and has won at Cranbourne in some handy times. 30.52 and 30.47. Both starts at Sandown she was slow out of the boxes and found plenty of trouble. That is the major concern here, as if she misses the kick then her race will be over. If she does begin, she should easily cross the inside box and be on the bunny. That will give her a great chance at winning. And form at Cranbourne holds up well at The Meadows.
Overall: Hit and miss. If begins. Should win.
#3 SON OF SENNA Needs the perfect race to come into the picture here. Is unlikely to get that here as won't be leading this field and with some fierce runners in this race, he doesn't stand a chance. Add to that, he has only won 3 from 85 starts.
Overall: A plodder who needs too much luck.
#4 HEY KOBYBOYNE Needs to have the inside draw to be of any chance. Gets the squeeze box today and is inside Kandy Bale, which doesn't help at all. Has won over the 600m at this track in 34.93 after leading all the way. His recent form has been of solid status, but nothing to get too excited about, especially considering the draw and class today. Although you must taken into consideration that has lead all the way on several ocassions and if Kandy Bale can't muster across, then is a realistic chance.
Overall: This one is risky business. I'm more inclined to ignore.
#5 KANDY BALE It looks like Kandy Bale enjoys racing on the rail and isn't too comfortable with dogs on her outside. She won well at Sandown from box 1 despite not leading. Only ran a 30.44 time with little interferance. Which is down from her debut run at Sandown in 30.27. She really does need the rails I believe and will find a little bit of trouble in this race as I don't believe she can lead here. Will be running on nicely enough to get into the placings though.
Overall: Place hope.
#6 WHERE'S FREDDO Might appreciate this draw to some extent. Will begin on terms with them and his race will be decided by the first 50m as Kandy Bale should go left, while the 8 runner Path Blazer is going to charge across the field to try and get the rail. If he can steer clear of this early carnage, he should be able to wip around them, especially judging by his last run at Warragul 424m.
Overall: This is your long-shot.
#7 CHLOE ALLEN Has only missed the money on 3 occassions from 13 starts and seems to begin OK. In her three attempts at this track and distance she has found a fair amount of trouble. If she can keep out Path Blazer, then she will be a good chance this race. Hit the rail last time out, and found trouble before and after that incident. So there is a lot of improvement to come from that run.
Overall: Must include for F4's
#8 PATH BLAZER Well last week he didn't cross the maiden final field. But was still way too strong for them in the finish over this track and distance. When he did cross last week Wednesday, he ran a strong 30.13. Has to cross the field again this time around as wouldn't want to give some of these too much of a head start. Especially since this is against graded company. The odds are going to be too short for a dog that is unlikely to catch these runners after failing to cross.
Overall: Likely favourite. But needs to cross.
The punters are likely to come for KANDY BALE and PATH BLAZER in this race. But they are the ones who are going to be charging to the rail. If Path Blazer does cross, the race should be over. In theory. But if you look at the speed-map provided by thewatchdog. It doesn't seem that either will cross. But that is AVERAGE speed. So hit-and-miss dogs never come up as good early speed. Because they either lead, or find trouble before the first split.
On that basis this race we can risk a few runners and go for an outsider. And a few at that. What we will we also do, is have a few bets to cover those involving the favourites.
My market is going to be no-where near the actual starting market. But that's not what we are trying to do.
Let's consider the experts tips:
Race caller Ron: 4-2-8-5
The Watchdog: 5-2-8-7
Hot Dogs: 5-2-4-8
Sure-Pick Ratings: 7-8-5-2-4
So we can see that 2,4,5,7,8 are the likely numbers according to the above sources.
MARKET:
#1 $7.50
#2 $4.50
#3 $61
#4 $18
#5 $6.50
#6 $12
#7 $5.50
#8 $6.50
100%
Selections: 2-7-8-5
We take consideration of our current stats after over 500 races.
1st seletion has a 59% place s/r. Last 50 selections is shooting at 74% place and 30% win.
Open race. Exotics should pay ok.
I haven't done any markets for today's meeting. So no.
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