Greyhound Thread

[IDIG]

Heading into The Meadows tomorrow night for my mate's bucks. He got to name Race 7 as well

Race 1 - No 2 Sydnie Allen ($10 win) 2nd
Race 2 - No 4 Aquired Taste ($10 win) x
Race 3 - No 5 Cosmic Pharoah ($5 e/w) x
Race 4 - No 6 Huey Sage ($5 e/w) x
Race 5 - No 2 Kandy Bale ($10 win) x
Race 6 - No 2 Eighth Wonder ($10 win) 2nd
Race 7 - No 7 Skye Surfer ($10 win) 2nd
Race 8 - No 7 Jamaican Bolt ($10 win) 2nd
Race 9 - No 7 Coulta Sky ($10 win) x
Race 10 - No 1 Yo Paulie ($10 win) 3rd
Race 11 - No 6 Manual Bale ($10 win) x

Out: $110
In: $0 LOL

EDIT: Race 10 Uno Tori scratched.
Amazingly not one favourite won last night. I was too pissed to care but disappointed i couldnt even pick one winner.

 

[Cruiser23]

Trifectas $24 for 100%

Race 1 - 1,3,5,8 5-1-8, 247.20
Race 2 - 2,3,6,8
Race 3 - 1,2,3,7
Race 4 - 2,3,4,8 4-8-2-3 Tri-145.40 F4-538.70
Race 5 - 1,2,3,4
Race 6 - 2,4,6,8
Race 7 - 8,5,3,2
Race 8 - 4,6,7,8
Race 9 - 1,4,5,7 5-4-1-7 Tri-80.90 F4-300.90
Race 10- 1,2,4,8
Race 11- 1,2,3,8 2-1-3 Tri-71.20

Total In - $264
Total Out - $1384.3
Up - $1120.30

So what bets did you put on each race?

 

[dr nick]

em.. I think he's adding the trifecta's AND the first fours winnings... but his "in" would suggest he's only been betting trifecta's

 

[bigbunyip14]

em.. I think he's adding the trifecta's AND the first fours winnings... but his "in" would suggest he's only been betting trifecta's

yeh sorry my bad, didn put in the f4 ins. lol i wa excited

 

[Lensen]

Testing out a new strategy to pick placegetters. Won't win big but hopefully it works as a steadily profitable method.

Testing with $1 bets for the first week or two to see if it's a goer.

Cranbourne
R2: 6
R5: 7
R6: 3
R7: 5
R10: 1
R11: 8
R12: 6

Geelong
R1: 7
R5: 4
R6: 3
R7: 6
R8: 4
R11: 6

Shepparton
R1: 1
R4: 10
R10: 7

 

[tazlgnd]

i like ronchi here

 

[Oaksnaf]

Hey Taz, have you ever tried to frame markets??

 

[tazlgnd]

Hey Taz, have you ever tried to frame markets??

i have not, i dont really understand what you mean by that. how would you work out a price for each runner?

i am a usually a pretty low end punter, just got the trifecta in the last at shepperton forgot to post it.

the bet was 1,2,5,6,7 box trifecta $6 for 10%, will usually look for open races and try and eliminate the 3 dogs and hope the roughie gets up, has worked ok but i do this for fun more than anything. trifecta payed 700 odd dollars so nice profit from that one, i sometimes narrow it down to 3 or 4 dogs to up the percentage and play around with some of the form.

Oct 12 2009, 05:27 PM
Shepparton Race 10 (Boxed Trifecta(UNI)) [1,2,5-7] @ 0.10
$6

anyway next bet is angle park race 3

1,8:1,3,5,6,8:1,3,5,6,8 $6 gets 25%

 

[tazlgnd]

anyway next bet is angle park race 3

1,8:1,3,5,6,8:1,3,5,6,8 $6 gets 25%

$15.80 back

Cranbourne race 2

1,2,6,7,8 box tri $6 gets 10% - nothing

Angle park race 4

(Boxed Trifecta(UNI)) [1-3,9] @ 0.2083 $5 gets 20.83%

 

[tazlgnd]

wish i put that last angle park bet as a first 4, payed $500, oh well profits still a profit

 

[tazlgnd]

also meant to leave race 4 alone accidentally put the race 5 bets in race 4

silly.... (Boxed Trifecta(UNI)) [1-3,9] @ 0.2083 $5 gets 20.83% will be repeated in race 5 will be very lucky to get up in race 4

nothing in race 4, see if it can get up in race 5 where i was supposed to bet it originally

 

[tazlgnd]

1,3,4,7 next at cranbourne. $5 gets 20%

 

[Oaksnaf]

It doesn't matter how much you punt. I ran a roughly $5 per race trifecta with $1/$2 bets earlier in the year with some handy returns.


The idea behind framing a market, is that you find the OVERS in your market and bet accordingly, but it also helps you lay out your own thoughts on paper.


A simple way to start framing a market. Would be to look at a race. And write down the order you think they will finish in.

So lets say...

Cranbourne Race 6

5
1
7
8
2
4
3
9

And then work your way from the worst runnner to the best.

So you would start with #9.

And analyse its chances. Don't try and think what odds it would start at in the race itself. Think of what chance you give this runner at WINNING and explore the reasons why.

Since we rate #9 the worst. We must find out why..... once we have found out why, we can then rate its chances of winning.

I would give it about a 2% chance of winning this race. So 2% = $50

Because


1
----- = %
odds

And if you ADD up all the runners %, it should equal 100 or 1. Whichever way you do it.



We start at the WORST animal. Because we don't want to start finding flaws in other runners so that we stick with our original thought on who will win in our quick look through.



Once you have done your market:

You can look at doing exotics, $1 or $2 exacta's and BACK the OVERS on your top 2-3 selections for $1 the win.



If you continue to do this all year and keep strike rates for your market odds. Then you'll be better off.


Because then you start to understand how you rate the runners chances and where they are finishing.

Ideally you want your $2 pops to be OVERS and win 50% of the time. Which is what they should do.

So think of it as. Every runner you mark down as $2. You think they will win 50% of the time.

 

[tazlgnd]

It doesn't matter how much you punt. I ran a roughly $5 per race trifecta with $1/$2 bets earlier in the year with some handy returns.


The idea behind framing a market, is that you find the OVERS in your market and bet accordingly, but it also helps you lay out your own thoughts on paper.


A simple way to start framing a market. Would be to look at a race. And write down the order you think they will finish in.

So lets say...

Cranbourne Race 6

5
1
7
8
2
4
3
9

And then work your way from the worst runnner to the best.

So you would start with #9.

And analyse its chances. Don't try and think what odds it would start at in the race itself. Think of what chance you give this runner at WINNING and explore the reasons why.

Since we rate #9 the worst. We must find out why..... once we have found out why, we can then rate its chances of winning.

I would give it about a 2% chance of winning this race. So 2% = $50

Because


1
----- = %
odds

And if you ADD up all the runners %, it should equal 100 or 1. Whichever way you do it.



We start at the WORST animal. Because we don't want to start finding flaws in other runners so that we stick with our original thought on who will win in our quick look through.



Once you have done your market:

You can look at doing exotics, $1 or $2 exacta's and BACK the OVERS on your top 2-3 selections for $1 the win.



If you continue to do this all year and keep strike rates for your market odds. Then you'll be better off.


Because then you start to understand how you rate the runners chances and where they are finishing.

Ideally you want your $2 pops to be OVERS and win 50% of the time. Which is what they should do.

So think of it as. Every runner you mark down as $2. You think they will win 50% of the time.

ahh thanks ill have a go at the next at angle park

 

[tazlgnd]

3: 40%= $2.50
1: 25%= $4
2: 12%= $8.33
9: 7%= $14.28
6: 6%= $16.66
7: 5%= $20
8: 5%= $20

 

[Oaksnaf]

Yeah that would be great Taz. Because I think once you find how you rate each runners chance and by what rating, you will find out how confident and how correct your confidence is in the race.

And long term, it stands up. Especially if you keep track.

Do a couple tonight and I'll give you a helping hand of what it means. If I can.

 

[tazlgnd]

oops forgot to include the 5

turned $6 into $70 this afternoon so pretty happy, hopefully can build the confidence to have a big go at tracks aside from mandurah

 

[tazlgnd]

gonna try a market for race 4 cranbourne

3:22% = $4.54
4:18% = $5.55
5:16% = $6.25
7:15% = $6.66
8:11% = $9.09
6:9% = $11.11
1:8% = $12.50
2:1% = $100

 

[tazlgnd]

RACE 5 CRANBOURNE

8: 29%= $3.44
3: 20%= $5
7: 15%= $6.66
4: 12%= $8.33
5: 10%= $10
1: 7%= $14.29
6: 4%= $25
2: 3%= $33.33

might take the overs on number 7 to place

 

[Oaksnaf]

Alright Taz. What are the results against your odds.

And what price did they run at.

 

[tazlgnd]

3: 40%= $2.50 1st $5.60, $2.30
1: 25%= $4
2: 12%= $8.33
9: 7%= $14.28 4ht $6.40, $2.20
6: 6%= $16.66 3rd $4.40, $1.20
7: 5%= $20
8: 5%= $20

gonna try a market for race 4 cranbourne

3:22% = $4.54 4th $1.60, $1.10
4:18% = $5.55
5:16% = $6.25 2nd $12.20, $2.40
7:15% = $6.66 1st $8, $2
8:11% = $9.09
6:9% = $11.11 3rd $28.10, $5.40
1:8% = $12.50
2:1% = $100

RACE 5 CRANBOURNE

8: 29%= $3.44 1st $1.80, $1.40
3: 20%= $5
7: 15%= $6.66 4th $34.20, $4.80
4: 12%= $8.33
5: 10%= $10 3rd $6.10, $2
1: 7%= $14.29
6: 4%= $25
2: 3%= $33.33 2nd $14.60, $2

might take the overs on number 7 to place

results

 

[Jose_Reyes]

I have a 'nice' selection for you lads.. angle park r9#3 uno madness

goodbye.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Great result on the top quote!

 

[Oaksnaf]

Imagine a 40% Strike Rate at $5.60 Taz. You would be on your way to profit heaven.

3: 40%= $2.50 1st $5.60, $2.30 = BACK
3:22% = $4.54 4th $1.60, $1.10 = DON'T BACK
8: 29%= $3.44 1st $1.80, $1.40 = DON'T BACK

So there is ONE bet for your top selections from those races with a profit of $4.60.

I noticed that you almost nabbed a HUGE place divi at Cranbourne Race 5 too.

Cranbourne Race 4, you had an open race in that market. Which would equate to a NO BET as your not quite sure on what is going to unfold.

So effectively you would of had a spendage of $3 including an exacta in Race 3, as Race 5 your odds were way undervalue so you wouldn't have tried to hit the exotics.

If you keep track of the Strike Rate to your odds, and if your strike rate is above the % of the market. Then Yahoo.

Play the VALUE races for exotics.

Sometimes when you find good value in your top selection (Race 3) you will go:

1/f for $3.5 (50c) exacta

 

[tazlgnd]

Imagine a 40% Strike Rate at $5.60 Taz. You would be on your way to profit heaven.

3: 40%= $2.50 1st $5.60, $2.30 = BACK
3:22% = $4.54 4th $1.60, $1.10 = DON'T BACK
8: 29%= $3.44 1st $1.80, $1.40 = DON'T BACK

So there is ONE bet for your top selections from those races with a profit of $4.60.

I noticed that you almost nabbed a HUGE place divi at Cranbourne Race 5 too.

Cranbourne Race 4, you had an open race in that market. Which would equate to a NO BET as your not quite sure on what is going to unfold.

So effectively you would of had a spendage of $3 including an exacta in Race 3, as Race 5 your odds were way undervalue so you wouldn't have tried to hit the exotics.

If you keep track of the Strike Rate to your odds, and if your strike rate is above the % of the market. Then Yahoo.

Play the VALUE races for exotics.

Sometimes when you find good value in your top selection (Race 3) you will go:

1/f for $3.5 (50c) exacta

oh i get it, thanks heaps for that should i keep it in an excel spreadsheet?