Greyhound Thread

[Oaksnaf]

If we become more accurate with our markets.

We can start to make some real gains with LAYING.

Not targetting low priced lay's. But long odds lays.

Because if we have our market set, and lay our bottom runners at what would seem 'ridiculous' odds to the general punter, who are more inclined to have their $5 on a 25-1 shot, just because its 25-1 without any knowledge or understanding on the race.


If we can successfully lay our bottom runners. Especially in the instances of Geelong Race 1 tomorrow, where there might be more VALUE in laying #1,2,3,4,5,6,7 than there would be BACKING #8.

If you think about it. Laying $15+ chances..... is gut wrenching and well, against our natural thought pattern. Because we see the exposure for a measly $5 and think..... gee I could win big with that $5 on exotic punting.

Which is where you have to realise. That if you think like everyone else. You will be like everyone else..... a long-term loser.

 

[dr nick]

I guess if you know the market well enough you could do it with success, but a couple things to note. The odds at betfair to lay are generally MUCH higher than the tote odds, so you are really risking a lot of coin. Also I have had quite a bit of success plucking the odd 100/1+ horse that i consider an outside chance with a couple dollars worth as a speculator bet.

Also last night, was considering putting $5 on India when they were 300/1 (and 500/1 to lay). Later on I realise they got themselves into a position where they needed 9 off the last over to win.

So yeah, laying is a scary game, and there's a very small gain to be had if you're attempting the longer odds, but hey, if you know that there's next to no chance of pulling off a win then it could work for you. Laying is certainly the only way to finish the day with every race in the green, and that's a pretty satisfying feeling too.

But then again I was having reasonable success looking at the 3 favourite runners, and laying whichever of those 3 i thought least likely to win. There wasn't too much at stake at any one time given the odds were around $5-8ish

 

[Oaksnaf]

It's not a matter of knowing the market itself at all. It's a matter of how accurate your own market is. If your market is more accurate than the public's market then you have room to play. If your market is simply incorrect and can't stand on its own two feet, then you will never make any profit.

Laying is only scary if you lack the confidence in your market.

Theoretically your overall risk factor is the close to being the same when laying/backing.

$1.01. Your risking $100 for $1 profit. Lay 100-1. It is the same. And in theory your bet has the same amount of chance to WIN and LOSE.

And since the betfair market favours lay punters considerably, maybe the long term value sits away from those who do what others do..... and that is BACK.

Maybe we should be looking at laying everything outside our Top Rater for value.

Look at the Derby market on betfair. The lay punters have a huge advantage. Not that I would know how to explain or use the advatange though....

I'm only relatively new to laying, but the advantage seems far greater over a longer period of time than it does with backing. But then again.... you need to get your markets right to start with. So lets concentrate on that!

And what suits me. May not suit you. And so on.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Well we were on target in Race 1. But Rebel Katie just wanted to go to the outside of the track in the home straight and ruined our perfect outcome.

They'll be onto OCTANE SPARK in Race 2. Expect odds on. Especially with the scratching of QUITE DASHING from Box 6. Plenty of racing room, Giles dog and should be too speedy for this maiden.

Should be plenty of value in laying all other runners here.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Geelong Race 4 #2-4-1-8

Early pace and breeding.

 

[tazlgnd]

how much do you make by laying all the other runners?

 

[Oaksnaf]

Depends how much you stake.

But you have to see whether they are value.

I would start by laying your WORST runner. And just see how many successful lays you have in a row.

Lots to think about isn't there!

 

[Oaksnaf]

Cranbourne

Download Rocket Scientist form-guide from www.thewatchdog.com.au

Skip the maiden race as for many it wouldn't be a viable betting option due to lack of knowledge. So that leaves us with a 311m scamper Grade 5.

We scroll up to the track map and find out that there is a short run to the first bend from the 311m boxes. And with these MUST ping kind of races..... it could be best to avoid them from a form analysis point of view.

So that brings us to Race 6. 520m.

The watchdog video's go back 2 weeks. Unless you have saved the files/links on your computer, or your a nut and can remember each dog's previous run.

Race 6... the only video's we wont be able to watch for the runners are #1,#5.

So lets see if we can find a race where all runners raced within the last 2 weeks.....and there isn't.

So what do we do? Do we completely ignore the video analysis and just stick to the form-guide analysis?

BUT.... if we do that. We already reduce our knowledge of the runners, as those who are going to study the race with video will have a better indication of how the runs went.

And in order for us to be a winner in the race, we need to not only know more, but we need to be accurate with our analysis.


The best form race for Cranbourne... is a 311m Grade 5 final.

Every runner raced on 19th October over this track/distance. So lets watch the video's in race order. Write down in order the WORST run to the BEST run.

Don't consider anything else but the performance in last week's heat.

Now do the form-guide study. Write down in order the WORST greyhound to the BEST greyhound.

By now you should be an instant expert and have a picture of how the race will unfold.

Now lets figure out why there are huge differences in our order. Lets factor in those influences and whichever we deem more important, we can factor that into the price.

Bad box. Increase Price. Good box history. Reduce Price. Recent winning form. Reduce Price. Etc Etc..... work out what factors are important to you, and more important what influencial factors are successful!


Now lets compare our worst selections with the tipsters best..... and if for instance your 7th worst dog is pick #1 for the watchdog. Go and have a look why, check Surepick Ratings. Check the race-callers tips.

If ALL of them have seen something you haven't, then you need to find out what it is and whether you need to re-do your form analysis.



Lets say:
Your order is:

5 $3.3
1 $4.6
3 $6.8
2 $7.6
6 $12
4 $18
8 $25
7 $33

And watchdog has 7-4-5-1

There must be something that you have overlooked. And if by race-start #7 is $5.50...... and #5 is $15.50.... then you need to understand why they are at those prices.

Not simply because.... you think #5 is JUST going to win.


If you become confused and don't believe you know enough about the race, then time to move on. Because there will always be a race tomorrow. Next week. Next Year. We don't need to bet today, especially if we are unable to find an unsuitable race.

IF that is our betting style of course.


Remember. We could spend 1-2 hours studying a single race. And in that race there is no suitable VALUE to make a bet. Surely with all that time and effort spent studying we can place one bet...... surely...... but is it necessary?

Or we could spend 1-2 hours studying 30 races and bet on every single one of them and rely on the big collects to get us through the meeting. We might win, but we don't really learn anything. Or understand where we were right or wrong or which races the public were wrong and whether we could of taken advantage.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Lets target $20 a day profit.

Cranbourne Race 1 #2,3,4,8 LAY Only #2,8 were matched bets +$10
Cranbourne Race 2 #6 LAY vNO MATCH
Cranbourne Race 3 #6,7,8 LAY
Cranbourne Race 4 #7,8 LAY
Cranbourne Race 6 #7 LAY
Cranbourne Race 7 #3 LAY

Couldn't be that hard....? Could it. A few lays at good prices here and there. And it won't take long to achieve the $20.

 

[dr nick]

It's not a matter of knowing the market itself at all. It's a matter of how accurate your own market is. If your market is more accurate than the public's market then you have room to play. If your market is simply incorrect and can't stand on its own two feet, then you will never make any profit.

You misunderstand what I say. Knowing the market is essentially the same as being able to form your own, more accurate market which is the cornerstone to working out which runners are overvalued/undervalued and hence worth laying.

What I was saying also is there's a lot more at stake if you do get it wrong, compared to backing... for those whose markets aren't completely accurate (somene like me for instance has much less to lose trying to pick off overvalued 100/1 shots) But if youre good enough to do it then go for it. You'll only find out by giving your system a run.

 

[dr nick]

Remember. We could spend 1-2 hours studying a single race. And in that race there is no suitable VALUE to make a bet. Surely with all that time and effort spent studying we can place one bet...... surely...... but is it necessary?

This is one of the essential skills you need to be a successful punter as opposed to a hobby punter. It takes a hell of a lot of self control if you've just spent 2 hours studying a race, can't find any value so decide to sit it out.

 

[Whacker]

Number 5 in the next at cranbourne

 

[Oaksnaf]

Number 5 in the next at cranbourne

Chaotic race there Whacker!

Better luck in the next.

 

[Whacker]

Shit was going everywhere lol

 

[Oaksnaf]

Lets target $20 a day profit.

Cranbourne Race 1 #2,3,4,8 LAY Only #2,8 were matched bets +$10
Cranbourne Race 2 #6 LAY vNO MATCH
Cranbourne Race 3 #6,7,8 LAY All matched, +$25
Cranbourne Race 4 #7,8 LAY Both Matched....+$35 if you want it
Cranbourne Race 6 #7 LAY Matched...+$40
Cranbourne Race 7 #3 LAY

Couldn't be that hard....? Could it. A few lays at good prices here and there. And it won't take long to achieve the $20.

Well there is out $20 profit today. Pretty fortunate though in R1 not to get matched on the $27 winner. BUT we layed half the field in a maiden. Not ideal at all. So lets consider Race 1 as a complete mistake. And consider our WORST ratings for each race..... some won't get matched. We could probably lay like this all day. With around 30% of races un-matched.

 

[Whacker]

So are you laying in betfair or what is this.

Forgive my n00bness

 

[Oaksnaf]

So are you laying in betfair or what is this.

Forgive my n00bness

Yes laying on betfair.

For what its worth, the inside boxes are the ones to beat at Cranbourne Race 4.

#1 $3.60-2 $5.00-5 $6.50-3 $8.00

 

[Whacker]

Yeah if the 1 gets out in front it wont lose. Im looking at number 6 for a little bit of value

Edit: Ah i suck again. Good time though

 

[Oaksnaf]

Have fun in Race 5 at Cranbourne. OPEN race.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Ballarat Race 6.... 450m MIXED 4/5.

#1 TOKEN ELITE is better suited out-wide as tends to trek wide pre-corner then cut the bend. Doesn't have enough early pace for these, and will have trouble coming from behind.

#2 SECRET SKULLS has definately dropped the form. Started in the Kel Greenough kennels, but had an injury. Well bred type with plenty of early speed. But just fades far too quickly.

#3 REV LIMITER youngster in the right camp, but is unproven coming from behind. So we have to bank of leading. Gets every chance here to lead as other favoured runners don't have the best of early speed.

#4 BULLICOURT ELITE just needs the perfect race to win..... won't get that here. OK beginner. That will help. But place is best as will find trouble and weaken.

#5 KING CYRIL - NO races wide and is slow out.

#6 TOMIC unplaced for the first time last start. Ignore run as check after check after check. Paper form says good enough to win as this isn't a strong race. Weaker than use too.

#7 RAWSON REASON great run last start when slow (again) out of the boxes. Momentarily held up, but found a gap (smart) and powered away in 25.52 win (0.01 slower than #3 REV LIMITER over track/distance who had PERFECT run).

#8 DEMONSTRATE well might just cross these as there isn't much pace on inside. With the race patten looks good. Paper guide, not so good. QUERY RUNNER.

MARKET
#3 $3.30
#6 $3.80
#7 $4.80
#4 $12
#1 $16
#8 $21
#2 $48 LAY
#5 $80 LAY


I think that #3 should lead here...... with that in mind. Gets every chance. #6 is naturally the stronger dog. But racing pattern and box is the query. #7 suited. But may fall short as wil be charging home.

EXOTICS in top 3.

 

[KarlHungus]

Hey Oaks, any further tips for tonight at the various dog tracks?

 

[Oaksnaf]

Hey Oaks, any further tips for tonight at the various dog tracks?

What are you looking for?

Mind you the above race took around 1 hour of study. So can't really replicate that for any of the other races tonight. But I can certainly do the normal 4 selections per race for exotic bets, or just a couple of shorties that should salute.

Ballarat Race 2...... #1 will be short because of trainer. They won't even look at the form. Whether someone knows something about this race or not remains to be seen.... Watch market for a FIRMER in the race, excluding #1,3.

#3-1-7-2

But yeah. I'll have a quick look around.

 

[KarlHungus]

Fair study there Oaks, certainly don't expect such anaylis.

Heading down to a pub tab with some mates, mobile phone in tow, so your four selections per race would be very helpful. Will probably give the exotics a big run tonight as the mrs is out of town and haven't had a bet for a while. Oh, and of course any certainties would be great!

Thanks mate.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Fair study there Oaks, certainly don't expect such anaylis.

Heading down to a pub tab with some mates, mobile phone in tow, so your four selections per race would be very helpful. Will probably give the exotics a big run tonight as the mrs is out of town and haven't had a bet for a while. Oh, and of course any certainties would be great!

Thanks mate.

Ahh. Well in that case.

Ballarat Race 4 #8-1-4-2
Ballarat Race 5 #4-8-6-7
Ballarat Race 5 #4 WIN
The Gardens Race 5 #8-1-7-5
The Gardens Race 5 #8 WIN

 

[KarlHungus]

Cheers Oaks, will have a crack.