Had a crack at the Bendigo quaddie:
1,4/1,3,7/5,6,8/1,2,4
Good to beat the very short fav in the first leg
1,4/1,3,7/5,6,8/1,2,4
Good to beat the very short fav in the first leg
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Greyhound Thread
- Thread starter danielz_23
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KarlHungus
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You are the man Oaks. Good result. Loaded up on the #8 and got the exacta. Will be hitting the Jack Daniels now!
Nothing beats a free/semi-free night on the piss.You are the man Oaks. Good result. Loaded up on the #8 and got the exacta. Will be hitting the Jack Daniels now!
yep. raceclub bars love it when a few favourites get up.
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tazlgnd
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masssive value in the quaddie tonight i reckon
wish the punters club was up and running im so tempted to take the quaddie wide but when i do that i always screw it up so i think my $20 limit will do makes me think about it more because i have to take out a few runners to up the percentage
anyway here is what i think for mandurah. will do the short one which i will put on and a wider one in case anyone wants to follow who has a little more money than a uni student!
SHORT
leg 1: will take google one out after last weeks crushing win
leg 2: Sudoku Man by a big margin
leg 3: terrible leg will take 1,2,3,5,6,8
leg 4: 2,5,6,7 look like the winners to me again not a good field
$15 gets 62.5% 100%=$24
LONG
leg 1: google should win but new runner from SA Porplyzia could test although first run so i wont include in the short quaddie, value will come from box 1 although i dont think that it will win if it gets tight in the middle between the 2 and 4 then Annmala Mefix has the ability to open up a big lead. just saw porplyzia scratched take the 4 if looking for a bit of value.
leg 2: Sudoku man by a long way, babyteeth rogers and kristy maree just to be safe!
leg 3: take the field'
leg 4: take 1,2,5,6,7
$240=100%
quaddie could easily pay over 2k with the lottery in race 7 and the tough race 8
wish the punters club was up and running im so tempted to take the quaddie wide but when i do that i always screw it up so i think my $20 limit will do makes me think about it more because i have to take out a few runners to up the percentage
anyway here is what i think for mandurah. will do the short one which i will put on and a wider one in case anyone wants to follow who has a little more money than a uni student!
SHORT
leg 1: will take google one out after last weeks crushing win
leg 2: Sudoku Man by a big margin
leg 3: terrible leg will take 1,2,3,5,6,8
leg 4: 2,5,6,7 look like the winners to me again not a good field
$15 gets 62.5% 100%=$24
LONG
leg 1: google should win but new runner from SA Porplyzia could test although first run so i wont include in the short quaddie, value will come from box 1 although i dont think that it will win if it gets tight in the middle between the 2 and 4 then Annmala Mefix has the ability to open up a big lead. just saw porplyzia scratched take the 4 if looking for a bit of value.
leg 2: Sudoku man by a long way, babyteeth rogers and kristy maree just to be safe!
leg 3: take the field'
leg 4: take 1,2,5,6,7
$240=100%
quaddie could easily pay over 2k with the lottery in race 7 and the tough race 8
sblack
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- Apr 23, 2007
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Porplyzia scratched from R5...
Good luck Taz!
You might find that in the OPEN races where your not sure of where the winner will come from you can take many quaddies for different %. Just look at the tipsters selections and have more $$ on the favoured combinations.
I know it is a bit of a piss around. But in the end, you wouldn't have the same amount of money on a $50-1 shot as you would a $2.00 pop.
So you might end up with 10-20 different quaddies.
You might find that in the OPEN races where your not sure of where the winner will come from you can take many quaddies for different %. Just look at the tipsters selections and have more $$ on the favoured combinations.
I know it is a bit of a piss around. But in the end, you wouldn't have the same amount of money on a $50-1 shot as you would a $2.00 pop.
So you might end up with 10-20 different quaddies.
The first greyhound meeting kicks off at 12:50 at Lismore and you can download the free-form guide from www.thedogs.com.au
Race 1 Is a maiden race with quite a few first starters and thedogs has tipped #7 COOL BONANZA as one of the favuorites for this race from the Azzopardi kennels. Well bred type too, but will need to be quick out of the boxes here as Lismore is right on the bend. #3 PICCOLO BACIO is the quickest beginner based on video evidence and gets a good box today as there doesn't seem to be a GREAT deal of pace around. #6 BARCAROL has plenty of race experience and most recent efforts suggest he is ready to battle at the front of the field. Will need to continue his good box manners here today as tends to fade in the final stages of the race. So can't win when coming from behind.
#3-7-6-1
**But this is a maiden race with some first starters, so it's not the best race to put your house on. Unless you have inside knowledge. So lets keep out bets to a minimum.
Exacta
#3-7 $2
#3-6 $1
#7-3,6 50c
Trifecta
#3-7-6 $1.5
#3-6-7 $1
#3-6,7-1 50c
#7-3-1,6 50c
OUT $8.50
Race 1 Is a maiden race with quite a few first starters and thedogs has tipped #7 COOL BONANZA as one of the favuorites for this race from the Azzopardi kennels. Well bred type too, but will need to be quick out of the boxes here as Lismore is right on the bend. #3 PICCOLO BACIO is the quickest beginner based on video evidence and gets a good box today as there doesn't seem to be a GREAT deal of pace around. #6 BARCAROL has plenty of race experience and most recent efforts suggest he is ready to battle at the front of the field. Will need to continue his good box manners here today as tends to fade in the final stages of the race. So can't win when coming from behind.
#3-7-6-1
**But this is a maiden race with some first starters, so it's not the best race to put your house on. Unless you have inside knowledge. So lets keep out bets to a minimum.
Exacta
#3-7 $2
#3-6 $1
#7-3,6 50c
Trifecta
#3-7-6 $1.5
#3-6-7 $1
#3-6,7-1 50c
#7-3-1,6 50c
OUT $8.50
Lismore Race 2
Quite a hard race to predict here. Major players are #2,3,6,7,8. #8 YORKLEA MOUNTAIN is going to be a favoured runner in the betting here. But you would want $3.50. Why? Well because he has to cross some good/consistent beginners on his inside, who are suited out-wide. He does however perform well in the good boxes, and with box 8. Gets a good chance to run around the 24.40 mark again, which is good enough to place.
Perhaps we should frame a market with the major players, and try and find some value. Or we might just aim to LAY the poor runners. #1,4,5.
Laying seems an easier option than backing in this race.
Quite a hard race to predict here. Major players are #2,3,6,7,8. #8 YORKLEA MOUNTAIN is going to be a favoured runner in the betting here. But you would want $3.50. Why? Well because he has to cross some good/consistent beginners on his inside, who are suited out-wide. He does however perform well in the good boxes, and with box 8. Gets a good chance to run around the 24.40 mark again, which is good enough to place.
Perhaps we should frame a market with the major players, and try and find some value. Or we might just aim to LAY the poor runners. #1,4,5.
Laying seems an easier option than backing in this race.
OUT $8.50
IN $34.70
A good start to the day.
Lismore Race 3
Distance races are meant to be the races in which the form-guide tends to paint a true picture. Because the longer the race goes, the less likely a small bit of interferance is going to make. As the good dogs, have enough time to make up the difference. And the bad dogs, well if they get a lucky break, they still need to run some reasonable time.
If we stick with outright distance performances on this track based on times. We are left with #5,6.
BUT #2 COOL ROCK HERO has been in great form and even with a bit of interferance and some OK starters, he has been able to surge away from the fields at Lismore in the final stages of the race. That is always a good sign. The main problem is that there are a few dogs who are proven at this distance. So unproven Vs proven. You know which way you are always going to go.
Nothing wrong with #4 LIGHTNING BIRD especially based on recent 10l win here.
Perhaps the best option is to LAY #3
Major players #2,4,5,6
With that in mind. We have been able to do further study and rate them:
#5-2-6-4
Looking for some $4.00 for #5 KEROMA GALORE
With the open race in mind. Exotics:
EXACTA
#5-2 $1
#5-4,6 50c
#2-5,6 $1
#2,6 50c
TRIFECTA
#5-2-6 $2
#5-2-4 $1
#5-6-2,4 50c
#2-5-4,6 50c
OUT $8.50
LISMORE RACE 4
If your new to form-study or even video-study. These FINALS are the best races to do. Because all these greyhounds have recent form at this track and they all raced last week.
THere is a good S/R for BEST winning Heat time in finals. So you cannot ignore that. Well its not the statistic that you can't ignore. But you can't ignore the run of a fastest heat winner.
However. If we look at #2 ELUSIVE ANGEL who absolutely flew home in the heat to finish second after copping some bumps and being pushed back to the rear. Showed great race sense for an inexperienced runner and the time of the race wasn't slow. This leads me to believe that #1 BARSHY will once again need a PERFECT race to perform. Gets a great box to do again. And since returning from a break has begun on both ocassions.
#3 SO SEDUCTIVE was the fastest heat winner from Box 1 and really did show a strong finish when railing right throughout the race. Must consider. But we want a price.
#5 PERFECT STUDENT was far from perfect in the heat and faces a tough task from this box, especially with so much speed on the inside. Looking at the form and ignoring video you give him a chance. A good one at that. But needs a better box today.
#2-3-1-5-4
EXACTA
#2-3 $2
#3-2 $1
#2-1 $1
#2,3-1,5 50c
OUT $6
LAY outside boxes.
If your new to form-study or even video-study. These FINALS are the best races to do. Because all these greyhounds have recent form at this track and they all raced last week.
THere is a good S/R for BEST winning Heat time in finals. So you cannot ignore that. Well its not the statistic that you can't ignore. But you can't ignore the run of a fastest heat winner.
However. If we look at #2 ELUSIVE ANGEL who absolutely flew home in the heat to finish second after copping some bumps and being pushed back to the rear. Showed great race sense for an inexperienced runner and the time of the race wasn't slow. This leads me to believe that #1 BARSHY will once again need a PERFECT race to perform. Gets a great box to do again. And since returning from a break has begun on both ocassions.
#3 SO SEDUCTIVE was the fastest heat winner from Box 1 and really did show a strong finish when railing right throughout the race. Must consider. But we want a price.
#5 PERFECT STUDENT was far from perfect in the heat and faces a tough task from this box, especially with so much speed on the inside. Looking at the form and ignoring video you give him a chance. A good one at that. But needs a better box today.
#2-3-1-5-4
EXACTA
#2-3 $2
#3-2 $1
#2-1 $1
#2,3-1,5 50c
OUT $6
LAY outside boxes.
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sblack
Brownlow Medallist
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Missed the start slightly, but too strong.
Now we didn't nab an exotic bet. Sometimes you need to understand the difference between an exotic race (A race that you have confidence in) and a race where you are looking for value (A race that you have confidence in).
Oh hang on a second......
We need to have confidence in that we can PICK the winner. But also have the confidence in who we think will fill the placings behind the winner. If we rate many chances.... then chances are we arn't confident.
We can only have one TOP selection. And if they are above our assessed price. Then we are finding VALUE. And VALUE tells us that betting on this race for WIN/PLACE is a good option.
We picked the well priced winner at our odds too.
Same with RACE 4. But we didn't pick up the exotics.
ALL LAY bets are saluting. So that tells us that we KNOW the difference between a dog who is in contention. And a dog who isn't. Which is the basics to start with.
Now we come to the LISMORE CUP heats. With dogs venturing across from many states. Ok, these are strong races.
But at the same time, we need to realise which states we know best. Sometimes we ignore the other states form as we don't understand enough about their dogs or their times.
With this in mind, we are never going to analyse this race properly. Especially if we don't know a large amount of the dogs.
So sometimes you can look at a race, and mark down 0-10 in your rating of knowing a runner.
If the race adds up to a poor number. For instance. Lets say for all 8 runners, your points add up to 15. Then you don't know much about this race AT ALL.
But if we watch these races. And come CUP time. We might have a better understanding. The CUP is more suitable, than these heats. Depending on your knowledge.
Stick to dogs that YOU KNOW that don't have a winning chance. And lay them. That way your not laying a dog you DON'T KNOW. Because that would be silly.
But at the same time, we need to realise which states we know best. Sometimes we ignore the other states form as we don't understand enough about their dogs or their times.
With this in mind, we are never going to analyse this race properly. Especially if we don't know a large amount of the dogs.
So sometimes you can look at a race, and mark down 0-10 in your rating of knowing a runner.
If the race adds up to a poor number. For instance. Lets say for all 8 runners, your points add up to 15. Then you don't know much about this race AT ALL.
But if we watch these races. And come CUP time. We might have a better understanding. The CUP is more suitable, than these heats. Depending on your knowledge.
Stick to dogs that YOU KNOW that don't have a winning chance. And lay them. That way your not laying a dog you DON'T KNOW. Because that would be silly.
r5 kallan bale
Look at the difference between Race 5 and Race 6 matched bets on betfair. Huge difference.
This is consistent with the whole meeting, and many more meetings. There is normally a race that has a heck of a lot more $$ matched.
In this instance you may have been able to find more value in LAYING all except #1 ROBO RAPTOR. But would you get your bets matched??
It almost seems that if you want to back a $1.50 runner in a greyhound race, there will be plenty of money on offer from the LAY punters. Which is hard to work out, because there was hardly enough money on Race 5 with Bogie Bomber in Race 4 from the LAY punters. Which leads me to believe, that these LAY punters are simply that. Not looking for the value.
If everyone lays under odds on. Then maybe the value is left in backing the fav. Or laying the field.
This is consistent with the whole meeting, and many more meetings. There is normally a race that has a heck of a lot more $$ matched.
In this instance you may have been able to find more value in LAYING all except #1 ROBO RAPTOR. But would you get your bets matched??
It almost seems that if you want to back a $1.50 runner in a greyhound race, there will be plenty of money on offer from the LAY punters. Which is hard to work out, because there was hardly enough money on Race 5 with Bogie Bomber in Race 4 from the LAY punters. Which leads me to believe, that these LAY punters are simply that. Not looking for the value.
If everyone lays under odds on. Then maybe the value is left in backing the fav. Or laying the field.
Lismore Race 8
A couple of smart types travelling to this CUP. Market will reflect that with a solid betting race amongst the top 3 #1,4,6.
There is a big discrepency between those greyhounds who have a chance in this race, and those who don't. This should be reflected in your exotic bets.
A couple of smart types travelling to this CUP. Market will reflect that with a solid betting race amongst the top 3 #1,4,6.
There is a big discrepency between those greyhounds who have a chance in this race, and those who don't. This should be reflected in your exotic bets.
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