Greyhound Thread

[sblack]

Huge value on the 6 in NSW. Currently $27 compared to 4.8 on UNI and 6.9 on STAB.

into 10

 

[tazlgnd]

fwiw i think that limburg pedro is amazing value, will have plenty of early room due to the empty box and if it stays in double figures im going to have a fair crack at it.

i dont think spader will win this one, too much pace on the inside.

4-3-6-1/2

 

[sblack]

Can't go past Spader here at Cranbourne. Anything over $2 is value

Dam, that was shit. Should stick to Gawler. Got squeezed early. Lost my Gawler winnings, about $50.

 

[tazlgnd]

fwiw i think that limburg pedro is amazing value, will have plenty of early room due to the empty box and if it stays in double figures im going to have a fair crack at it.

i dont think spader will win this one, too much pace on the inside.

4-3-6-1/2

$4 the place

 

[tazlgnd]

everlong bale to win, will win the start and get too far ahead

 

[sblack]

Gawler 10

The clear favourite, #2 is scracthed. Would of won easily. Leaves a very wide race.

Not much thats stands out.

I've quinella'd the 4-6. If 4 can clear the early trouble, then it could win here.

6-4-3-8

*May have understimated the #3 Will watch

 

[Oaksnaf]

Without looking at the form there sblack, I find it hard to see how you have left out TREKSET in your top 4 selections. Pace in the race is important. Especially considering how far Riverboat normally gets back in the running.

UNION RULES from the red, important box to have.

 

[tazlgnd]

next at cranny

1 should win most of the pace is taken out of the race

cant split the 8 and the 5 really lie the 5 at odds

disrption to fill the placings

 

[tazlgnd]

everlong bale to win, will win the start and get too far ahead

$3.20, $1.40

cant see anything beating the 3 in the next

3-1,5,6-1,5,6

will go fairly hard at that hopefully will pay $15+ for the tri

 

[sblack]

Without looking at the form there sblack, I find it hard to see how you have left out TREKSET in your top 4 selections. Pace in the race is important. Especially considering how far Riverboat normally gets back in the running.

UNION RULES from the red, important box to have.

I think I just overlooked it. Did it rushed. Wasn't looking at Cranbourne previously, but Spader interested me, and I then rushed looking into Gawler. Cost me in the end.

 

[Oaksnaf]

If Dark Secret starts over $2.30 then you are absolutely laughing. As would have been around $3.60 with Dan Flack/Hot Terrain.

I have been taken back by most dividends in exceptionally small fields. Not saying that 6 is a small field, but sometimes when there are only 4 dogs in a race there is plenty of OVERS to be had on the favourite as the pub punters find something else to back.

I find it hard to see the 6 beatin 4,5 and 8 to get a place dividend there Taz. Hard task.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Swallows tongue. The 6 ran a brilliant race.

But Dark Secret far too strong.

 

[tazlgnd]

the $2 was value was never going to lose!

lost a bit on the tri but picked it back up with the place divvy for the 6, i couldnt resist $6.20, even though i tried to show restraint as i wasnt certain it would run very well.

happy with the result but that was not good punting.

 

[tazlgnd]

turn to gold at wenty

 

[Oaksnaf]

the $2 was value was never going to lose!

lost a bit on the tri but picked it back up with the place divvy for the 6, i couldnt resist $6.20, even though i tried to show restraint as i wasnt certain it would run very well.

happy with the result but that was not good punting.

You picked the winner (at OVERS?). Picked the 6 to run second (which I assume would have been OVERS had you done a market).

Had you punted to your OVERS in the market, you could have ended up with a simple $4 Trifecta.

Dark Secret // #6 // Field returning $88.70.

Punt to the value. And you will get value in return.

 

[tazlgnd]

the next at cranny

the 8 likes this inside, dont think it can cross and will find trouble, most likely with the f who prefers the outside

6 should explode out the boxes and lead, i believe it will lead all the way with the 3 on its heels

the 7 is a good place chance

 

[sblack]

Gawler, 3-1-6 tri. Paid $29.10 Had $13 per line on it (through betfair, no flexi) Nice.

 

[tazlgnd]

You picked the winner (at OVERS?). Picked the 6 to run second (which I assume would have been OVERS had you done a market).

Had you punted to your OVERS in the market, you could have ended up with a simple $4 Trifecta.

Dark Secret // #6 // Field returning $88.70.

Punt to the value. And you will get value in return.

yeah i didnt frame a market for this one. but basically i eliminated the 4 and the 7 was amazed that the 4 was starting so short, completely outclassed.

still profited from the race but annoyed that i didnt go for the exotics.

fwiw the 1 would have been around $1.50 in my market

 

[tazlgnd]

haha god i was off with the fairies didnt do any exotics in that last at cranny
just got the payout and the trifecta got up, it was at gawler not cranbourne

confused myself and it paid nicely as you said sblack, nice job.

so that worked out well had the 6 to place and had a fair bit on the 1 to win, should have played the exotics but in hindsight thats easy to say

 

[Oaksnaf]

yeah i didnt frame a market for this one. but basically i eliminated the 4 and the 7 was amazed that the 4 was starting so short, completely outclassed.

still profited from the race but annoyed that i didnt go for the exotics.

fwiw the 1 would have been around $1.50 in my market

That's exactly why punting is frustrating. With so many options to take and with minimal study or understanding about punting process you can become lost in the way you punt, even if your analysis shows that it should be profitable.

Once we can understand the best way to punt. Then we will become clear on what is profitable and what is not.

$1 Quinella Cranbourne #6,7.

 

[tazlgnd]

last 2 at cranbourne

1,2,3 box exacta

race 12

#2 WIN

 

[sblack]

That's exactly why punting is frustrating. With so many options to take and with minimal study or understanding about punting process you can become lost in the way you punt, even if your analysis shows that it should be profitable.

Once we can understand the best way to punt. Then we will become clear on what is profitable and what is not.

$1 Quinella Cranbourne #6,7.

Nice pick with the #7, the #6 didn't get in it.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Nice pick with the #7, the #6 didn't get in it.

From my market the #7 was the value runner and therefore it should be the bet that you use based on your order.

So I had

6
7--OVERS
2
3--OVERS
5
8
9
4

I was reasonably confident in finding the winner in my top three. Yet if I was to punt all exotics revolving around #6. Who was UNDERS. Then I would be punting into a non-profitable situation.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Remember this:

If you don't know. Then you are guessing.

 

[Oaksnaf]

There was a F4 Jackpot at Cranbourne Race 11

and we invested something like this:

1-2,5,8-2,3,5,8-2,3,5,8 based our bets around those combinations. Hoping Eldurante wins.