Roast Grumpy Old Thread 2019- Summer Edition

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ferball

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Jul 24, 2015
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North Melbourne
I just had the catastrophic fire warning issued for my area for tomorrow.

Catastrophic fire danger is now forecast for the Greater Sydney and Greater Hunter areas on Tuesday 12 November 2019, due to worsening weather conditions.

High temperatures, strong winds and low humidity are forecast, making conditions dangerous.

Catastrophic is the highest level of bush fire danger. Homes are not designed to withstand a fire under these conditions.

If a fire starts and takes hold during Catastrophic fire danger conditions, lives and homes will be at risk.

Advice for people in areas of Catastrophic fire danger include:
Avoid bush fire prone areas. A safer area may be a large town or city, shopping centres or facilities well away from bushland areas.
Schools in identified high risk areas will be closed. Schools will notify affected students. Start making arrangements now.
If you are unable to leave, identify a safe location which may be nearby. This may include a Neighbourhood Safer Place.

Large areas of the state are also forecast to experience Severe and Extreme fire danger. This includes in the north coast and northern NSW areas, where there is a large number of fires already burning. These fires will not be contained in time and will threaten lives and properties.

Based on latest forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology, the following fire danger ratings are expected on Tuesday. These are subject to change as forecasts are updated:
Catastrophic – Greater Sydney and Greater Hunter (including the Blue Mountains and Central Coast areas)
Extreme – North Coast, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Central Ranges, Northern Slopes and North Western
Severe – Far North Coast, New England, Far South Coast, Southern Ranges, Lower Central West Plains

This is the first time since new Fire Danger Ratings were introduced in 2009 that Catastrophic fire danger has been forecast for Sydney.

A statewide total fire ban has been declared for all areas of NSW for all of Monday and Tuesday.
Are you okay with all that? Do you have a plan if fire impacts on your place? Is it likely to?
 

King Corey

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Jun 9, 2001
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I just had the catastrophic fire warning issued for my area for tomorrow.

Catastrophic fire danger is now forecast for the Greater Sydney and Greater Hunter areas on Tuesday 12 November 2019, due to worsening weather conditions.

High temperatures, strong winds and low humidity are forecast, making conditions dangerous.

Catastrophic is the highest level of bush fire danger. Homes are not designed to withstand a fire under these conditions.

If a fire starts and takes hold during Catastrophic fire danger conditions, lives and homes will be at risk.

Advice for people in areas of Catastrophic fire danger include:
Avoid bush fire prone areas. A safer area may be a large town or city, shopping centres or facilities well away from bushland areas.
Schools in identified high risk areas will be closed. Schools will notify affected students. Start making arrangements now.
If you are unable to leave, identify a safe location which may be nearby. This may include a Neighbourhood Safer Place.

Large areas of the state are also forecast to experience Severe and Extreme fire danger. This includes in the north coast and northern NSW areas, where there is a large number of fires already burning. These fires will not be contained in time and will threaten lives and properties.

Based on latest forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology, the following fire danger ratings are expected on Tuesday. These are subject to change as forecasts are updated:
Catastrophic – Greater Sydney and Greater Hunter (including the Blue Mountains and Central Coast areas)
Extreme – North Coast, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Central Ranges, Northern Slopes and North Western
Severe – Far North Coast, New England, Far South Coast, Southern Ranges, Lower Central West Plains

This is the first time since new Fire Danger Ratings were introduced in 2009 that Catastrophic fire danger has been forecast for Sydney.

A statewide total fire ban has been declared for all areas of NSW for all of Monday and Tuesday.
Geeze that's concerning. ferball summed up what I'd ask and unlike me has a clue what he's talking about.
 

Kangaroos4eva

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Are you okay with all that? Do you have a plan if fire impacts on your place? Is it likely to?
Yea, going to sit down with the family tonight to discuss it all.

Likely enough, unfortunately. Our crews are on constant call. We only had a decent sized fire two days ago.
 

ferball

Premium Platinum
Jul 24, 2015
13,710
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North Melbourne
Yea, going to sit down with the family tonight to discuss it all.

Likely enough, unfortunately. Our crews are on constant call. We only had a decent sized fire two days ago.
Good one. Talking it thru and making sure everyone is prepared and on the same page is really important cos if things go to shit quickly you'll have to fall back on what you've planned and focus on just doing it and nothing else. So take time and work thru everything you can think of.

Most if not all civillian bushfire casualties in Australia (apart from things like heart attack and other health related deaths) have occured within 100m of bush and most of them within about 30m of bush. But there are suburbs that pretty much qualify as "bush" thruout the country.

If you are in the suburbs even vaguely, which seemed to be the case from your photo the other day, and not directly uphill from large trees and woodland or bush then your odds of successfully defending a place increase alot.

But you have to be prepared. If you're not 100% confident and have plans and fall back plans and maybe some fire experience you are probably better off evacuating. Especially on catastrophic fire danger days. In fact on those days even with that stuff you should leave early. Catastrophic fire danger means the fire danger index is over 100. Before that point mosrt deaths occur outside actively defending property however after that point some 70% occur inside a structure so even a house might not provide protection and if the fire is big enough it'll suck all the oxygen that's available and you might asphyxiate even if your building protects you from the radiant heat.

If you think you'll need to leave make sure you have everything you'll need. Wallet, all valuables and cash. All your devices and data. Whatever photos and momentos you can't bear to lose. Changes of clothes. They might be the only ones you have if your place goes. That includes spare shoes. A few things that sre really important to kids cos they'll get thru it all better if they have a few of their favorite things to hang onto. And talk with the family about other stuff as well.

Have plans for pets and animals you can't take with you.

And rehearse everything so everyone has done everything at least once. That way if its scary, intense and sudden then that (even if its one the night before) rehearsal will give you all a plan to follow ... something to mentally hang onto ... as the adrenaline and potenial panic sets in. Especially if you have young kids. Kids get scared and act irrationally.

Good luck mate. I hope nothing happens.
 

koshari

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 24, 2011
10,236
12,339
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Mon. 11 NovTue. 12 NovWed. 13 NovThu. 14 NovFri. 15 NovSat. 16 NovSun. 17 Nov
Summary
Morning fog.
Showers.
Showers easing.
Shower or two.
Shower or two.
Shower or two.
Possible shower.

enough of the showers alreaddy.
 

ferball

Premium Platinum
Jul 24, 2015
13,710
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AFL Club
North Melbourne
This is how thick the smoke is, normally I can see the hills quite easily:
View attachment 777708
That's like our place. I hope your family's preparation went well and you're ready for whatever comes. Take care and good luck.

This website gives real time surface temperature readings from satellite data:


Its pretty good and works well with "fires near me" (The RFS app) or the RFS website and fire activity map (which are the same map but one's a phone app and the other is webpage.)

There is an app for it as well that actually seems a little bit better.
 

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ferball

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Jul 24, 2015
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North Melbourne
Thankfully, only a few smaller fires in my area.

Our local crews are sending as many trucks and personnel, that can be spared, north to support efforts in the Northern hinterland and Northern NSW coast.

Thanks to them too. It all went to shit at Bora Ridge and Mt Nardi today but could have been so much worse. We had crews from down south today and it made everything so much easier to have extra fresh bodies.
 

ferball

Premium Platinum
Jul 24, 2015
13,710
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Could it have been fire fighters filling up their tank?
Not there.

Its either my brigade or the one next door and neither of us have been active nearby or needed water that badly. Its not the only report of water going missing either. This guy found a spring at the back still flowing and rigged up a drip fill system in the last 3 weeks. He's recently moved into this place to renovate it for the owners. They were small tanks at the house so its obviously drinking and cleaning water.

You're out working hard for over 12 hours, hot, dry and thirsty, filthy and exhausted - you come home and there's no water. Whoever it is wouldn't want to get caught.
 

D23D

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Apr 27, 2008
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Not there.

Its either my brigade or the one next door and neither of us have been active nearby or needed water that badly. Its not the only report of water going missing either. This guy found a spring at the back still flowing and rigged up a drip fill system in the last 3 weeks. He's recently moved into this place to renovate it for the owners. They were small tanks at the house so its obviously drinking and cleaning water.

You're out working hard for over 12 hours, hot, dry and thirsty, filthy and exhausted - you come home and there's no water. Whoever it is wouldn't want to get caught.
Gee what a mongrel campaigner.
You’re right about not wanting to get caught, still a lot of space there for someone to go missing
 

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