Injury Gunston to miss 2-3 weeks

[Dixie Flatline]

So do we want the cats or freo to get up?
I assume we want port to get up.

Not really the right thread to forecast the last few rounds of the season, but I have Hawthorn finishing fourth on the ladder assuming that Hawthorn loses to Fremantle and Geelong. Win one of those two games and Hawthorn jumps to first in my ladder predictor, assuming Port Adelaide beats Sydney this weekend. If Sydney wins, I see Hawthorn finishing second a game behind the Swans as I don't think the Swans would lose a game between now and the end of the home & away season.

At this point, I don't see Hawthorn finishing lower than fourth, so it's a question of whether Hawthorn can win enough games in the run home to finish first or second.

If the Cats beat Fremantle and Port beats Sydney this weekend, then it's set up for Hawthorn to host Fremantle in a qualifying final on a Friday night assuming that Hawthorn loses to Fremantle but beats Geelong. If Hawthorn loses to both Fremantle and Geelong, then Hawthorn could end up traveling to Sydney to play the Swans in a qualifying final.

Scenario 1:

Round 20 
Port Adelaide beats Sydney
Geelong beats Fremantle
Hawthorn beats Melbourne

Round 21
Geelong beats Carlton
Sydney beats St Kilda
Fremantle beats Hawthorn
Port Adelaide beats the Suns

Round 22
Port Adelaide beats Carlton
Geelong beats Hawthorn
Fremantle beats Brisbane
Sydney beats Western Bulldogs

Round 23
Hawthorn beats Collingwood
Fremantle beats Port Adelaide
Sydney beats Richmond
Geelong beats Brisbane

Top eight - Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Essendon, Collingwood

Hawthorn plays Sydney in Sydney (probably ANZ Stadium) in a qualifying final

Scenario 2:

Round 20
Hawthorn beats Melbourne
Sydney beats Port Adelaide
Geelong beats Fremantle

Last three rounds end up with the same results as scenirio 1

Top eight - Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Essendon, Collingwood

Hwathorn plays Geelong at the MCG in a qualifying final

Scenario 3:

Round 20 as scenario 1

Round 21
Hawthorn beats Fremantle
All other results in round 21 as scenario 1

Rounds 22 and 23 as scenario 1 (eg., Hawthorn loses to Geelong)

Top eight - Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, NOrth Melbourne, Essendon, Collingwood

Hawthorn plays Sydney at the MCG in a qualifying final

Scenario 4:

Round 20 as scenario 1

Round 21
Hawthorn beats Fremantle
All other results in round 21 as scenario 1

Round 22
Hawthorn beats Geelong
All other results in round 22 as scenario 1

Round 23
All results as scenario 1

Top eight - Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, NOrth Melbourne, Essendon, Collingwood

Hawthorn plays Port Adelaide at the MCG in a qualifying final

Scenario 5:

Round 20 as scenario 1

Round 21
Fremantle beats Hawthorn
All other results in round 21 as scenario 1

Round 22
All results in round 22 as scenario 4 (eg., Hawthorn beats Geelong)

Round 23
All results in scenario 1

Top eight - Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Essendon, Collingwood

Hawthorn plays Fremantle at the MCG in a qualifying final

In my view, if Sydney beats Port Adelaide, it all but locks Hawthorn in to a top four position, but if Port Adelaide beats Hawthorn, it makes Hawthorn's quest to finish top two a tiny bit easier.

 

[MisterBean]

Vs Melbourne, I would consider having Smith cover Gunner's role, he is a good mark (not as good) and can do what Gunston does around the ground.

This would explain why we have included Hartung in the team for this week. Perhaps Smith will spend a lot more time forward covering for Gunston's role, while Hartung takes over what Smith normally does.

Exciting to have Smith, Hartung and Hill in the same side.

 

[dcutter]

This would explain why we have included Hartung in the team for this week. Perhaps Smith will spend a lot more time forward covering for Gunston's role, while Hartung takes over what Smith normally does.

Exciting to have Smith, Hartung and Hill in the same side.

Interesting scenario. It would seem like this could be a distinct possibility. @ $21/1 smith could be a smoky for most goals too. Hartung is an interesting selection. Another possibility could be that Hill is carrying an injury and/or hartung needs the added exposure should one of the outside runners go down or may also need the extra leg speed to run a labouring freo off their legs in perth. Would be classic clarkson to pull off something from left field like this. Will look on with interest.