The recruiters got it right? GC had pick #1 (Swallow) and #2 (Bennell) in that draft - it doesn't matter at all to them which order they picked them in - no more or less risky. I personally think Bennell was (and still is) far more talented as a footballer than Swallow and therefore should have been pick #1. Based purely on football output (for GC) to this point that is also true. So even making this debate a retrospective one I still disagree with you.
On what basis are you evaluating Swallow having been so much more valuable to GC on? Just the fact that he is still there and Bennell isn't? He had a pretty good 2014 but his 2012, 2013 and 2015 certainly weren't amazing. The stats are pretty clear that Bennell has had greater impact on-field since being drafted. Maybe in 2016 Swallow will live up to expectations with Ablett back but that hasn't happened yet. Or maybe his form will drop further, or maybe he'll pack his bags as well at the end of 2016 and move on just like Bennell. But likewise Bennell might continue spiralling out of control and end his career in the next few months.I don't know the future just like the recruiters didn't at that draft - picking Swallow and Bennell were the right choices at the time, I just think it should have been the other way around.
Swallow had the biggest raps on him that any player has ever had heading into a draft. He won the Larke medal as the best performed player at the 2009 under 18 champs as an underage player. It is a big accomplishment to make the state under 18's team as an underage player, let alone to not just be your teams best player, but to also be the best player of the entire competition - something that I believe is unprecedented.
In the following season - his draft year - he played just 15 games in the VFL and yet ended up finishing 4th in the Liston trophy (VFL equivalent of the Sandover) as a 17 year old. He was the clear no. 1 pick at the time, when considering the unprecedented body of work that he had produced + his exemplary attitude. Just revisionist history to say that Bennell was the better prospect at the time. Swallow was the consensus no. 1 pick at the time, and would have been picked first by every club, no doubt whatsoever. Bennell at the time, had question marks over his attitude and had been criticised for being inconsistent, two things which in time proved to be right on the money.
In the years since Bennell has certainly shown that his ceiling is higher than Swallow's, but he needs to address his propensity to having off-field brain fades, and also the rarely spoken issue of his continual calf injuries - think he has strained his calf about 6 times in the last 3 years? Swallow has had his fair share of injuries as well, suffering 2 season-ending injuries in his 5 years in the AFL, which has no doubt effected his progress. I think time has shown though, that Swallow was probably a player who's mature physique allowed him to compete with older players in 2009, and then with adults in 2010. With that being said, I don't think that it's outside the realms of possibility that he could still go on to become one of the premier inside mids in the comp, but considering the current profile of our list, another inside mid is the last thing that we need.
Bennell pretty much has it all, he can play everywhere on the ground and dominate there. He can play inside/ outside, up forward in a pocket, or off half-back, where as Swallow has really only shown that he has an A-grade game at AFL level as an inside mid, despite playing mainly at half-back in 2009 when he won the Larke medal. Bennell's leg speed, elite kicking of both feet and goal kicking is going to benefit us a lot more than anything that Swallow could offer us, as it would for any other team in the comp, we just have to hope that he can screw his head on and stop acting like a child when he is away from the club.
I would take the risk on Bennell over Swallow everyday of the week if we were offered the option of one of them. Bennell is capable of having a cameo season one year, where he is the best player in the comp, like a Cooney, and could be the deciding factor which is the difference between us winning or losing a premiership.