Harness Tips

[brooklynbute]

Ok,in short I price every race,its not that hard when youve been doing it a while.
My markets are not always right but if the results go wrong,at least I know it wasnt due to my lack of input.
People seem to trust them so thats important.
Thats why I stick to Vic harness only,easy to know the pool of horses.
I dont bother with the outer circuits like Nyah,Cobram etc or restricted meetings.
I take some notice of trials but not that much,TAB opening price is a giveaway.
I watch a lot of replays.

Most punters could be quite good at it if they didnt try to be good at everything.
If I bet on sports etc I take advice from people who do it for a living.

BB I dont understand why you dont believe laying false faves cant work.
Happy to lay virtually anything @$1.5 or under if its the right one.
Most punters will take unders because thats the way they were introduced to punting.
My goal is not to win big,its simply to consistently win.....thats where we are clearly different.
Good for you that you wanna tell us how successful youve been with the shorties......$1.2 or $1.3 chances arent for me.

DM I do lay but I mainly arb from my market.
Liquidity is an issue on Betfair but it will improve

seth

Mate uve got me all wrong i dont constantly back them shorties id be lucky to have 1 or 2 a week in an all up and thats it, thats not the way i win. but im just saying in trots, alot of shorties run around and alot win, so i presume it would be hard to make money out of cos a majority would get up and win.

And what u said about not winning big but consistently winning is exactly what i do...i have never collected a massive dividend but seem to collect alot of smaller ones more often..clearly exactly like u..i no nearly every trotter running around in victoria and i no how most of them like to run what draws they like and i even take into account what a drivers preferance is, barriers and mostly times mile rates and last halfs. and if the horse i come up with is 1.50 or 30 dollars ill jump on it...and 1 thing i cant stand is taking unders on a horse...but as long as we win who cares how we do it, agree?

 

[Danger Mouse]

I summarised last nights results on the previous page. Anyway that proves times are the most important factor in trots.

Gold Coast

R1 - Top Shelf Hanover ... sat 1-1 in a 57.1 last half, final split 27.8 running second beaten 4m. Best part was the horses hugging the rail couldnt make any ground nor could some really good ones trailing in the one wide line except Good Catch. Looks a special and i will also say if he reproduces his last run, he cannot lose. These horses up front, cannot run anywhere near that last half on what they have shown thus far. Sunrain is one to be wary of, last 2 runs have been superb working very hard in the lead 2 starts back then sitting in the death in a brutal last half when going down by a small margin.

Race 4 - Mountain Rainbow ... comes out of a strong form race. For one, All Our Lad, Depend on Davey and Jeramiah Shannon ran the trifecta yesterday at Albion Park spacing the rest of the field. Secondly Our Sister Bliss who got the best run in the race couldn't outsprint MR yet ran second from the death chair last saturday night and also recorded a win at her previous start over Sunopal. Anyway he sat 1-1, leaders rocketed home in 57.3, 27.8, a little outsprinted into fourth. Now the favourite here Sunopal has the gun draw to follow the leader so it must be respected also.

Best bet - Top Shelf Hanover

 

[sethlad]

I summarised last nights results on the previous page. Anyway that proves times are the most important factor in trots.

Never a truer word spoken here,very little difference between most tracks (in Vic anyway) so times/tempo are all important.

BB,who cares what I think of you?
Pretty sure we are all happy doing it the way we do now.
Its worthwhile sharing ideas but to be honest,neither of us are gunna learn much at this stage.

Just trying to keep this board civilised.
Every year we get a couple of clowns in Spring coming on here talking themselves up when they clearly have no idea.
This is one of the few racing forums that is worth posting on,everyone is welcome to tip/discuss or whatever.
No judgement here....unless you make ridiculous claims that are impossible to back up..(No Names needed)
No-one here cares how fantasticly wonderful these new posters claim to be....its an internet forum.

So lets just keep this thread going...results will speak for themselves

seth

 

[sethlad]

Mister Swinger out of the Chariots...throat infection
Awful luck for the Bannockburn boys

seth

 

[brooklynbute]

lol im with ya well spoken mate...
too bad about mister swinger, and for the owner peter plummer who is on the harness racing board at NSW, would have been a nice touch for his horse to win in his home state.

On the punting side, Ebony Gem now gets less pressure as mister swinger was going to go to the death, even more of a chance to win now. I think they will walk in the first half, which will help the horse as well, my speed map has now gone to shit, ive got melpark major in the death and be diligent moving up without cover mid race.

if that happens MM gets the one one and its over, any other scenario, ebony gem wins. it might be hard for the swoopers to get into it. its a hard race to work out now.

 

[Island Bomber]

I summarised last nights results on the previous page. Anyway that proves times are the most important factor in trots.

I find that yes times are important but they are not the be all and end all of harness racing. Different tracks, different drivers, the way a horse is driven are all factors in the time a horse runs.

A horse for example may sit 3 back the running line while the leaders run a quick lead time and a quick first 3 quarters and outsprint the leaders over the final quarter hence clocking a time that is somewhat misleading. That same horse may lead and knock up running those times.

I agree with you in that a horse that can consistently run sub 2 minute mile rates is usually going to beat a horse that runs plus 2 minutes.

I just wanted to say that in my experience (and l don't mean any disrespect to you guys) times aren't the most important factor.

I find that draws and drivers and more important. If a horse is drawn 2 vs a horse drawn 11 that runs slighty quicker times. l would be more likely to back the horse drawn 2 every time.

Anyway good luck and good punting. (Hope everyone's cashed up for Friday night)

 

[Exhale You]

Gold Coast

R1 - Top Shelf Hanover ...

Race 4 - Mountain Rainbow ...

Well done, buddy.

This is my first post on this board, but i read it everyday and despite not being a huge fan of harness racing i've taken a keen interest in your tips.

I finally decided to lash out and have a bet on your tips (i usually only bet on the gallops and sport) tonight and i'm glad a did.

For those who haven't seen the results, Top Shelf Hanover ran second whilst Mountain Rainbow won at the very nice odds of $10.10.

Anyway, just wanted to thank you, both for tipping me into a very nice collect, and for the always interesting tips and analysis you give.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Boooooooooooom!

First let me say, i want to make this clear, i'm not betting. I haven't had a bet for over 2 weeks. This is all research till i get it, really get it and can prove to myself i can find value and be consistant enough to turn profits long term.

Top Shelf Hanover was held up, got out, rushed at the leader and missed by a lip BUT thats okay! Thats the game as Brooklyn said, the selection was right, the price was overs but just ran out of time.

Mountain Rainbow, sat last all the way, pulled out right off the track and rushed over the top and won paying 8.60. Was paying 25.00-30.00 with 5 minutes to go, but someone crunched it in late. Whoever you are, damn you!

I also missed a selection and it won, argh! I skimmed the form to fast and missed the winner of the third. How effin ******ed is this... Polar Flight leads and wins in a 2.02 mile rate 59.7 half and pays 1.80.. Well Caught Marsh leads and wins a 1.59.2 mile rate, home in 58.3 AND PAYS 6.20!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Headbutt wall!!!!! Take one guess who won. I cant miss these, i knew at the start of the race when he said WCM speared to the front i was thinking, isn't that the horse who led and brained them last start.... sigh

Other thing i was happy with was i left out Arnies a Fake cos i hated his last halves, boooooooom he went down at long odds on! Oh that was great cos the old me would insta tip it!

This sport is definately all about the times, anyone can do it! Now i got to see if i can keep this going.

I'm more happy now then i have ever been doing this even when iv'e won a few grand!

 

[brooklynbute]

I find that yes times are important but they are not the be all and end all of harness racing. Different tracks, different drivers, the way a horse is driven are all factors in the time a horse runs.

A horse for example may sit 3 back the running line while the leaders run a quick lead time and a quick first 3 quarters and outsprint the leaders over the final quarter hence clocking a time that is somewhat misleading. That same horse may lead and knock up running those times.

I agree with you in that a horse that can consistently run sub 2 minute mile rates is usually going to beat a horse that runs plus 2 minutes.

I just wanted to say that in my experience (and l don't mean any disrespect to you guys) times aren't the most important factor.

I find that draws and drivers and more important. If a horse is drawn 2 vs a horse drawn 11 that runs slighty quicker times. l would be more likely to back the horse drawn 2 every time.

Anyway good luck and good punting. (Hope everyone's cashed up for Friday night)

Ur spot on mate, im big on barrier draws as well and id rather back the horse in 2 with gath behind it with slightly slower times then the one in 11 with a cowboy on the back with slighty faster times..

good tipping tonight DM, specially with the $10 one...keep it up.

Mate, ur stupid if ur not cashed up for Friday night. going to be a great night of harness racing.

 

[brooklynbute]

I just ate my words then...with that horse coming from last and still winning yet had the best times...well done mate...maybe u shoulda backed it instead of only tipping it...thats the game we play though.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Thanks Exhale but punters like Brooklyn in on fire, hes better at this them me as well. You would make more following him no doubt. I'm just trying to learn at this point in time!

Island, i pay little attention to runners who win sitting on the pegs. I have repeatedly noticed even crap horses can run fast splits following the leader yet do nothing from any other position, hence why i ignored Inoperative tonight who beat Mountain Rainbow home yet ran nowhere tonight, no suprises there! I know that wasn't the point to your post though! I'm not going on mile rate as much as i'm more looking at the last half compared to every other runner in the field.

If something say holds its spot in a 57.5 half, while the favourite say won in a 59.2 regardless of draws surely the horse that was in the faster half is overs by default right? If all the times are similar then sure, i agree barriers play a huge part. As you said though "slightly quicker times" .... better to ignore those races i say and look for horses with a formline of 355 who ran the time last start against a bunch of horses at its next run who can barely get out of there own way!

I'm on a bit of a buzz now, i'll reread what you said again tomorrow and try to incorporate your advice into my strategy! If you still feel i'm wrong, feel free to tell me!

Brooklyn, i got plenty in my poker balance and i can withdraw a % and unload on the horses but with my past record, it's just not profitable for me yet regardless of me having a good night.

 

[Island Bomber]

Danger, no worries mate. I agree with what you say. I just wanted to express that in my opinion times are not everything.

Maybe l look at form from a different angle to you as 3/4 of the bets l have are tri's or first 4's. I'm always looking for the leader behind the leader situation as l find that is where l have my best wins. Rails in those types of races are highly important to me. If l can find what leads and what sits behind it, l'm nearly there.

The thing l really like about punting on harness is the fact that after you get to know most of the horses racing pattens you can work out where 90% of the horses in the field will position. l find that this makes it a hell of a lot easier to find a winner as opposed to gallops.

Stands are another thing altogether.

 

[brooklynbute]

Ur a very smart kid ill give u that.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Art of Steel in the next, that thing is pretty rotten, only ran a ok final quarter when it could lead and was completely left alone. Looks like a lay to me..... if it wins though, don't blame me!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Art Of Steel - Second last!

 

[brooklynbute]

Definatly a smart kid weve got here.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Couple of more things going through my head (amazing but true) ... Quick last halves in slow mile rates are raced to prehaps ignore. See these from time to time. Even trash horses (well most) can reel off a very fast split if they crawl the whole way. So for example, you see a mile rate of 2.01.0 last half 57.0 isnt that strong compared to if the mile rate was 1.95.5, all it says is the horse can sprint but has no stamina. The other thing was that race last night with Top Shelf Hanover, the winner Destreos (who fell in)rattled home in 57.3, 28.3 from the death while at his previous start he went 58.3 from the death beaten 4m. I hate how horses improve! Those 2 horses are both horses to follow in a rather big way! Oh and the other 2 things i want to mention. Sunopal from the gun draw did little even when she got out, the times just were not there (previous start won in 60.4 half) while Sunrain who ran second at her previous start couldnt get into it last night. Okay not that suprising considering how fast they ran home BUT as i was pointing out, she ran second in a 2.01.3 mile rate home in 57.5.... What that tells me, she can zip really fast splits when the leaders walk and shes on the pace. The mile rate needed to be at least 1 second faster to consider her.

Albion Park today

Race 1 - I Like to Dance - Ran third beaten 11m in a 2.04.7 stand over the 2600m, home in 60.9, 29.3 which is very quick for squaregaters. Runs up to that, will win by a huge space.

Race 3 - Da Li Montee - Form looks crap but i'm only going on last run. Winner rated 1.59.1, home in 58.8, 29.0 and he was beaten 9m into 6th from the 1-1. Effectively ran home in around 59.5 29.7 in a good mile rate for this class. From the pole, has to be a big chance unless the driver does something effein ******ed and gets into a speed war.

Race 4 - Good Boy Diesel - Beaten a head last start in a stupid slow mile rate of 2.03.3, blinding last half of 56.7. I'm ignoring that race because of what i said above. Going on his previous run when he sat 1-3, they ran 1.59.8, home in 57.3, 28.3 beaten 4m. I'd prefer the horse eased at the start to make one run at them.

Race 5 - Tri Laughing - Showed gate speed which is good, showed worked early, got shuffled back to 1-4 position. They ran 1.59.5, home in 60.1, 29.3 beaten 2m. Now this is first up and i don't like horses first up, fequently they run shockers till they get fit but this stable does have a good record with horses fresh.

Race 6 - Materazzi - Sat on the pegs his last 2 in good mile rates, strong last halves not beaten far. I'll go on his run 3 starts back from 1-2 trail, leader ran 2.01.3 mile rate, home in 57.9, 28.8 beaten 10m which would have him running home in around 58.6, 29.5 which is more then good enough to take this out. Now this horse cant work so if they go dumb speed early and hes driven out he will get beat.

Race 7 - Vicious Villain - Sat behind the leader last start in a very strong race for this class beaten 4m into fourth 2.01.8, 58.3 half. Now i don't believe those times to some degree because some really good ones couldn't make any ground from the back of the field as the first 4 brained the rest. Livet Lady who had strong form in slightly weaker company who had the cheap run following Vicious Villain couldnt hold his back and dropped out while Destreos from that same race ran a 57.3 last half and won last night as we know. Now going in his run 3 starts back when he sat 1-4, leader ran 2.00.6, home in 58.5, 29.1 beaten 9m into 6th which would have him running home in around 29.8. Hes nowhere near a good thing on that but the rest of these are not running any better except Quickstep Miss who is clearly the best horse but is first up. In any case, if he cant run well here against this lot, i won't be following him no more! Minimum should run a place, no excuses!

Race 8 - Kind of undecided here as i like 2 horses. Beckoning sat last in a 1.58.7 mile rate, home in 57.6, 28.6 beaten 5m which clearly makes her a HUGE chance here. The other i'm really worried about is Woodlands Boy. I know he runs his best races in front going on his old NSW form. Hasn't had a chance to lead yet. Last start, showed gate speed, sat 1-2 in a 1.57.8 mile , home in 58.5, 29.0 rate beaten 7m into third. Clearly Beckoning looks better BUT if Woodlands Boy does get the lead easily as thats VERY likely and the horses underneath it are not leaders he might prove VERY hard to run down. On times though, Beckoning.

Best Bet - I Like to Dance

 

[xamol]

Hey troops,
good tipping by all.
Lets see if we can get a few more across the line.

Terang tonight
R 3 # 2 Boomshakalaka

Tomorrow Yarra Valley
Race 4 # 10 Coalmine Creek

Mooney Valley Tomorrow night
Race 2 # 1 Mad Macca

Geelong Saturday Night
Race 4 # 10 Rocketrod Cullen

Kilmore Sunday
Race 2 # 9 Prior Notice

Keep up the good work guys.

 

[Bayonet]

Hey troops,
good tipping by all.
Lets see if we can get a few more across the line.

Terang tonight
R 3 # 2 Boomshakalaka

Tomorrow Yarra Valley
Race 4 # 10 Coalmine Creek

Mooney Valley Tomorrow night
Race 2 # 1 Mad Macca

Geelong Saturday Night
Race 4 # 10 Rocketrod Cullen

Kilmore Sunday
Race 2 # 9 Prior Notice

Keep up the good work guys.

Race 7 Mildura Gary Grant

 

[Danger Mouse]

summary - 2 winners, quinella'd the last, 2 seconds, a fourth and 2 dud runs. I Like to Dance and Beckoning both paid roughly 2 bucks. My selections from here are going to be much more sparse, no more tipping the card, it's pointless, there simpily isnt enough between them to have an advantage, just going around in circles and in all honesty, just losing long term, they might run a place but thats still not winning! Half a second advantage over your rivals isn't going to cut it. Like last night, both horses i liked last night had over a second on there rivals on previous runs. I like to Dance had over 2 seconds on its rivals today, was a moral if ever i saw one. My other selections today Good Boy Diesel got knocked off by something which improved 15 lengths on its previous runs. Vicious Villain second but couldnt outsprint the winner, not suprising, i had him down running a 29.8 final split, its obvious in hindsight. Metarzzi the same, had him coming home in 29.5.. couldnt sprint home either, meek 5th... Da Li Montee home in 29.7.. couldnt sprint home either! Theres a pattern emerging! Tri Laughing first up found nothing but i did point out that possability, on top of it, only ran a 29.3 split at its previous run. Quickstep Miss first up, found nothing. As for the last, Beckoning home in around 29 last start, just beat Woodlands Boy.... wasn't enough time seperating the two which is why Beckoning fell in. She ran a good close up run in that 57.6 half BUT the last quarter was only 28.6, much different then say a 28.1... she never had that much over Woodlands Boy, wasnt a bet, she won but still no bet and i'll try not do it again.

All horses first up i'm ignoring for good until they actually do something. So many horses resuming being backed on reputation and doing nothing, it's staggering.

Anyway, punting can be about 2 things. Entertainment value? Play every race, speculate in even fields, have some fun win or lose. Or it can be about winning which means far fewer bets waiting for the clear advantage. So this means as much as it pains me to do so, i'm going to stop giving out horses i like if the times are not hugely advantageous over its rivals.

 

[CranktheAnchors]

summary - 2 winners, quinella'd the last, 2 seconds, a fourth and 2 dud runs. I Like to Dance and Beckoning both paid roughly 2 bucks. My selections from here are going to be much more sparse, no more tipping the card, it's pointless, there simpily isnt enough between them to have an advantage, just going around in circles and in all honesty, just losing long term, they might run a place but thats still not winning! Half a second advantage over your rivals isn't going to cut it. Like last night, both horses i liked last night had over a second on there rivals on previous runs. I like to Dance had over 2 seconds on its rivals today, was a moral if ever i saw one. My other selections today Good Boy Diesel got knocked off by something which improved 15 lengths on its previous runs. Vicious Villain second but couldnt outsprint the winner, not suprising, i had him down running a 29.8 final split, its obvious in hindsight. Metarzzi the same, had him coming home in 29.5.. couldnt sprint home either, meek 5th... Da Li Montee home in 29.7.. couldnt sprint home either! Theres a pattern emerging! Tri Laughing first up found nothing but i did point out that possability, on top of it, only ran a 29.3 split at its previous run. Quickstep Miss first up, found nothing. As for the last, Beckoning home in around 29 last start, just beat Woodlands Boy.... wasn't enough time seperating the two which is why Beckoning fell in. She ran a good close up run in that 57.6 half BUT the last quarter was only 28.6, much different then say a 28.1... she never had that much over Woodlands Boy, wasnt a bet, she won but still no bet and i'll try not do it again.

All horses first up i'm ignoring for good until they actually do something. So many horses resuming being backed on reputation and doing nothing, it's staggering.

Anyway, punting can be about 2 things. Entertainment value? Play every race, speculate in even fields, have some fun win or lose. Or it can be about winning which means far fewer bets waiting for the clear advantage. So this means as much as it pains me to do so, i'm going to stop giving out horses i like if the times are not hugely advantageous over its rivals.

That is one thing Danger I do get caught up in is betting the card. I find the best days i've had (barring hitting a big tri or quaddie) is having 2 bets for the day playing footy or cricket come back check the results. Less bets.

 

[Danger Mouse]

You know what i just realised, with those horses i went for today saying they came home in 29.x seconds. Well thats all good and fine but then the only way they would win is if the leaders came home in 30.x seconds plus and how many horses finish off in 30s overall... For some stupid reason i didn't consider the ground they had to make up today, erm!Stupid, lol..... I'll put it like this, i'll use Mountain Rainbow as an example, beaten 6m? in a 57.3 half, 27.8 final split which equates to him running about a 28.3 final split. Sunopal the favourite came home in 60.4, 30.4 when he won. Mountain Rainbow beat him home by 16m last night. Any suprises? .... One things for sure, you never stop learning!

 

[brooklynbute]

Good work mate, even though u only tipped two winners. i learnt something after reading what u wrote over and over again so i got it completely. i saw that race where you thought that horse improved 15 lengths on its previous runs, but as i was saying, most of it comes down to times,, but some horses a completely different animals when they sit behind the leader compared to if there any where else, thats why u always have to be wary of the number 1 in the trots, because that kind of thing happens a bit. It helps when the walk up in front like they did in that race, the two favorites were very disappointing.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Can't agree on Good Boy Diesel being dissapointing. He sat in the death in a 2.00.8 mile rate, home in 57.3, 28.6. He ran as good as anyone would have hoped. How Aussie Patch improved that much to rail through puzzles me still! We both agree though, horses behind the leader improve lengths!

 

[brooklynbute]

i no there wasnt much in the pool at the time but with 13 minutes to go till the race, that winner was $108 and it came into 21 lol...fair effort...ur probably right in saying that the performance of good boy deisel wasnt dispointing but at those odds...never again...it was 1.04 at one point in time, i thought it was good enough to breeze and beat them.