Harness Tips

[Danger Mouse]

Kilmore Tonight

Race 2 - Kamwood Pete - Hows this for a run. Speared out at the start, couldnt slot in, dragged all the way back to last. Was badly held up spotting the leader a good 25m. Found daylight half way down the straight, under the horses own steam charged down the middle beaten 7m closing very fast on the leader. Leader finished off in 30.1 so must of reeled off a 28.6 split and was full of running untouched by the driver. Now this wouldn't be a bet BECAUSE the horse underneath Richrocknrustler also finished off from back in the field beaten 2m in a 28.6 split BUT i'm banking on Kamwood Pete leading EXPECIALLY with Kerryn Manning taking the drive tonight. Richrocknrustler hasn't shown any gate speed in his 4 runs and on there last runs, he will be struggling to pick up this Kamwood Pete.

Judge for yourself, hes near last, runs third - www.harness.org.au/video/vic/CHC21080807.wmv

Interesting to looking at the Victorian form. Seems like horses are mixing there form quite frequently. Happy i follow QLD, the form seems to stack up far better. Less shiftyness prehaps?

 

[sethlad]

Interesting to looking at the Victorian form. Seems like horses are mixing there form quite frequently. Happy i follow QLD, the form seems to stack up far better. Less shiftyness prehaps?

What makes you say this?
Do you have recent examples?

seth

 

[brooklynbute]

Yeah g'day fellas,

Im only new to this forum, but I see most of you are fair battling in the tipping department.


I specialize in WA Harness and will give my thoughts on each meeting, other than outer country meetings in the West, starting monday at Pinjarra.

A couple of interesting triallers today at Pinjarra and Byford respectively.

Nice FFA horse No Blue Manna at Pinjarra and a seven year old son of Cams Card Shark and almost $600 k earner- Spirit Of A Shark. Now being trained by Ross Oliveri. He has been a solid trainer over a long time with Saab being his best horse. He trained the 2008 WA Derby winner Argent Treasure and also trains handy type, Formulaone.

lol geeze mate thats pretty harsh its a hard game this and i think a few of us a tipping a fair few winners at some good prices.

But watch out for spirit of a shark over there he is a very fast when in front, but only when in front, as DM said, should be a good horse at Gloucester park.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Kilmore Tonight

Race 2 - Kamwood Pete - Hows this for a run. Speared out at the start, couldnt slot in, dragged all the way back to last. Was badly held up spotting the leader a good 25m. Found daylight half way down the straight, under the horses own steam charged down the middle beaten 7m closing very fast on the leader. Leader finished off in 30.1 so must of reeled off a 28.6 split and was full of running untouched by the driver. Now this wouldn't be a bet BECAUSE the horse underneath Richrocknrustler also finished off from back in the field beaten 2m in a 28.6 split BUT i'm banking on Kamwood Pete leading EXPECIALLY with Kerryn Manning taking the drive tonight. Richrocknrustler hasn't shown any gate speed in his 4 runs and on there last runs, he will be struggling to pick up this Kamwood Pete.

Judge for yourself, hes near last, runs third - www.harness.org.au/video/vic/CHC21080807.wmv

Interesting to looking at the Victorian form. Seems like horses are mixing there form quite frequently. Happy i follow QLD, the form seems to stack up far better. Less shiftyness prehaps?

Fifth. From gate 2 no gate speed, 3 back the fence and never travelled. Richrocknrustler from gate 1 eased back to last! Held up, flew when it was all over. The Brian Gath runner who struggled last start in the SAME race as Kamwood Pete who incidently went straight past him doing more work and with no luck all of a sudden grows a leg and leads throughout.

Seth - Don't play dumb mate, you know as well as i, it's shifty racing in Victoria. I saw around 6 runners tonight who ran great time and followed that up not being able to break 30 secnds for the final split at there next run. Or Lances horse who was running like a dog, leads and runs home in 57, 28.0 while he could hardly go a yard at his previous runs, right!

What really got me was the semi heat for the 3 year olds when Gavin was just sitting there on Captain Joy fu.king around letting the horse go to the line with heaps under him. Next start in the final? Comes out and wins like champion and of course Gav declares it a certainty. Well what about the poor punters who backed it in the heat? Victorian harness = sad.

Never get away with that crap in QLD.

Ever wondered why i'm based in Melbourne but never cover the races in Victoria?

Brooklyn - Your finding winners better then anyone going around, don't let Jasper put you off!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Can anyone here tell me she was trying one inch on Kamwood Pete. Not once, not once did she even shake the reigns at him. Every other driver in the race had the whip out and there mounts were going flat out. Shes just sitting there weaving between horses full of running. Now please, if i'm wrong, someone please enlighten me.

www.harness.org.au/video/vic/KIC31080806.wmv

 

[sethlad]

Seth - Don't play dumb mate, you know as well as i, it's shifty racing in Victoria. I saw around 6 runners tonight who ran great time and followed that up not being able to break 30 secnds for the final split at there next run. Or Lances horse who was running like a dog, leads and runs home in 57, 28.0 while he could hardly go a yard at his previous runs, right!

I own horses that race in Victoria,I pay their bills.
I give them to trainers who try.
Cant speak for everyone but IMO Vic racing is as clean as its ever been.


What really got me was the semi heat for the 3 year olds when Gavin was just sitting there on Captain Joy fu.king around letting the horse go to the line with heaps under him. Next start in the final? Comes out and wins like champion and of course Gav declares it a certainty. Well what about the poor punters who backed it in the heat? Victorian harness = sad.

For a start Captain Joy is a 2yo
Half the field fell in that final,did Gavin organise that?
I agree semi finals make drivers drive to qualify but if I know that,Im pretty sure you do too
Simple answer is dont bet when theyre driving to finish first 5.



Never get away with that crap in QLD.
Ever wondered why i'm based in Melbourne but never cover the races in Victoria?

No idea,I thought you were new to harness racing?
Ive raced horses in Qld within the last 3 yrs & happy to tell you stories about what goes on there.
This is why I now race in Victoria.

seth

 

[Danger Mouse]

Yeah i know hes a 2 year old, wrote that when i was a bit furious, clouded my mind!

Well thats great Seth but then explain to me the run of Kamwood Pete. I want your opinion on that drive. Is the horse no good or was the driver not trying. Be honest. You say the sport is clean but that doesnt explain that race does it. I do respect though that your in the loop and have a good idea of what happens inside.

Okay so you agree some of the drivers are not trying in heats. Does the punter not fund the entire industry? Isn't it the stewards job to make sure the drivers, drive there mounts out? Or is this an insiders sport with some drivers picking and choosing when they want to have a fair crack?


Been following harness racing for years but never seriously until now. In fact hardly followed it all until recently where i'm now trying to take it seriously vs entertainment.

I can tell you a story, then maybe you can share yours.

My old mans mate had a horse a few years ago. One of the Langs drove it, no prizes for guessing which one. Anyone one certain night, Lang tells the owner "not tonight" which was replied with "what do you mean not tonight" which was followed with "not tonight" .. The horse drew the pole and was a leader for reference... Anyway my dads mate had to be restrained as he wanted to kill him (not literally) ... Then went to the stewards who were not interested....

I repeat Victorian harness = sad

 

[sethlad]

I didnt see the race as I dont work restricted meetings.
I will watch it later & let you know but my initial thought is:Its a 2yo
It had run in a restricted 2yo & at Charlton (dont do form there either)
People accuse Kerryn of a lot of things but I have never heard her accused of giving one a soft run

I dont claim to have inside knowledge but I do know the industry ok
I prefer not to mention it....there are 3 people here who know which horses I own because I actually trust & respect their opinion....

Im so sick of the general public bagging harness racing...its such an easy target.
Everyone knows someone who knows how crooked it is.
Like its the only code with cowboys in it???? Gimme a break
All I can repeat is,if you are willing to give your horse to people who wanna pull it up then you deserve all you get
No disrespect to anyone.
I wont be telling stories here for the above reason (happy to PM you)

Is the structure of heat & semis right?
Debatable but everyone knows how it works
We had a horse in the Sires & BC series & we drove him to qualify.
As for stewards....only time I see them is when they swab mine
It happens a lot,almost every race either pre or post in the last 12 months

This thread is fantastic because you tell it as you see it.
But honestly,youve been doing serious Vic form for a minute.
Do it for 12 months then let me know if you feel the same.

seth

 

[Danger Mouse]

As always Seth, your posts are well thought out and level headed. I always respect the counter arguement!

 

[brooklynbute]

Ok, im happy to put in 2 sides of the argument here, my old man was a trainer until the showgrounds closed down and went to gallops, i am now involved with a good honest stable who have there fair share of winners and are lucky to have the good honest owners and drivers they do. and ill tell it how i see it. I cant think of how many stories ive herd of drivers who remain nameless have pulled up a horse, or handed up the lead, and thats the tip of the iceberg, the worst i have actually seen with my own eyes was..

(driver of favourite) "hey mate can you hand up the lead" (the driver i was with that night) "yeah"
[we were going to hand up anyway, from gate 1]...that was it....5 minutes later the fav rounded up the field and led and won easily we had an extra 1000 bucks in our hand....if ur trying to tell me its a clean industry, it certainly is not, its a well known fact lang pulls up horses frequently, and there is no way this is the only state that does it, i no it certainly happens in south australia, and bookies are into it there as well....there is no way we can get around it. Although the stories i have herd are from a long long long long time ago, stewards are more on top of it today but it still happens ever so slightly, we all no it goes on but theres nothing u can do, just stop betting in heats and semis of races and ull be fine.


i did see the run of kamwood pete, and she didn't move on it what so ever, maybe she was just teaching it something, but i dont think she was trying, if u look at the last few replays of a horse called motu armbro scott, the driver has never moved on this horse ever,, maybe kamwood is one of these horses that cant be hit with the whip at all or it goes besurk.

Now can we please stop talking about this because this is not why we are involved in the industry, lets go back to talking about everything else but people throwing races, and go back to tipping some winners and talking about other events in trots.

 

[Bayonet]

As always Seth, your posts are well thought out and level headed. I always respect the counter arguement!

Danger
1. Have you ever sat behind a mobile?
2. If so, you would know some horses are not robots especially 2yo's.
3. i must admit k manning drive tonight left a few questions such is why didnt she trail on the horses back from the 1000 to the 400? That's when the stewards should ask questions but they seem to look just for interference.

 

[Jasper29]

Gday all
Tips for Monday at Pinjarra.

1: 7,8,3
2: 10,5,9
3: 6,3,7
4: 11,3,6
5: 8,9,6
6: 3,11,8
7: 2,7,6
8: 3,9,8.

I really like Gransagenic in the 4th. He is a lovely Village Jasper four year old and should go through the grades this prep.

One to watch is Columbus Cullen in the last. Laden with ability and is first up today. Id probably just watch him today.

Andrew De Campo should have a good day out with Mister Albert, Jackmandoo and KJ's Rocket very good chances. Jackmandoo is first up from NZ in the 6th. He has won 1 from 11 over there but has been placed behind very nice typed Cut and Style and the classy Badlands Jewel.

On another note, im not sure if GP will suit Spirit of A Shark, with the size of the track and the racing style. Like the leader in FFA's gets it served up from the 1200. There are a couple of nice FFAers here at the moment. Washakie was super last prep and looks the horse to beat in the good races. Former NZ gelding, Spirit Of Tara isnt too far away and will suit GP right down to the ground. No doubt master trainer G Harper will have him firing.

Cheers,

Jasper.

 

[Jasper29]

sorry, it was late last night when I posted, i meant Power of Tara.

 

[brooklynbute]

Well when one of your FFA horses runs sub 54 then u can say ur washakies and scruffys are better horses then spirit of a shark. Even if he does get taken on like most do in the west, he will be able to outstay them cos if u can run 1.53 u can stay till the cows come home. He could potentially be ur best FFA horse when in front.

 

[Jasper29]

No disrespect mate, but have you been to Perth?

Now the track record at GP is 1.54 flat. Horses such as Pure Steel, Preux Chevaliar, San Simeon, Baltic Eagle, Falcon Strike, Classic Garry etc.. who have won most of the major races in Australasia could not crack the 53 barrier. So id suggest that time is near impossible to run at GP.

Spirit of A Shark ran 1.53.9 at Albion Park which apart from Menangle is the fastest track in Australia. I'd say thats equal to about 1.56 and change here. Also, SoaS's form in races further than the mile is pretty average- unlike in qld, there are very few mile races here, there is one race at xmas time worth 50k and thats about it. The WA Pacing Cup is 2500 and the Fremantle Cup 3200.

Home For Jack went 1:53.3 at Albion Park in 2005. I bet you have never heard of him. Whats that saying?

Look, im not bagging the horse- im looking forward to seeing him in the flesh; but what does annoy me is that horses that arent up to grand circuit or even QLD top class are assumed that they would be top WA horses and very little credit is given to WA horses.

And when people refer to Scruffy Murphy- he won a couple of FFAs at the weakest point of the year- soon after the good races here when all of the better horses went for a spell. Just look where he ran in the group races.

On another topic, theres a horse here called Sneakyn Down Under who could be anything. His point to point speed is like nothing i have ever seen.

Cheers,

Jasper

 

[Jasper29]

Results from today at Pinjarra: all on nsw tab.

R1: Ten To Zero- won and paid 5.10
R2: Punk Rocker- unplaced
R3: Jackmandoo- was short and won well at 2.10
R4: Gransagenic- shorter than i would have thought at 1.80 but just bolted in
R5: Exceedingthelimit- won and paid 4.30
R6: KJ's Rocket- 2nd
R7: Mister Albert- unplaced and sin bin
R8: Mr Beam- midfield. maybe hasnt came back as well this prep.

So 4 winners and a second- a solid start. As usual at Pinjarra the ones that I was confident with were short, but you cant complain with winners.

 

[brooklynbute]

Hey mate if u have even red the last 10 pages of this forum you would see that i nothing but praise for sneakyn down under and i rave about him everytime he runs and wins, he has amazing cruising speed, but there are chinks in the armour, ill never forget when he got outstayed by steuben of all horses. btw i think bendigo is the fastest track bar menagle, by a long way.

And spirit of a shark ran 2nd in an interdominion heat to reba rajah who is one of our best, over 2200, so that says he can run that journey as well, plus he pulled the entire way and still finished off well. but i have good respect for just jasper sneakyn down under and washakie, that is it.

 

[Jasper29]

Sorry for not reading the last ten pages.
Yeah SDU isnt the toughest horse around.

But if SoaS is that good, why did it go so badly against the good ones in qld? maybe thats why they sent it to Perth?

Just Jasper? Really?

So you dont rate Glencadam? who toyed with Just Jasper a few weeks ago? or Mr Yankee? or Village Ruler?

 

[sethlad]

Well thats great Seth but then explain to me the run of Kamwood Pete. I want your opinion on that drive. Is the horse no good or was the driver not trying. Be honest.

Ok,just to close this chapter,Ive watched its last 2 runs.
Obviously the replays only show last lap so that doesnt tell the whole story.
The common denominator in both drives is that they are both "un Kerryn like"
She never moved an inch on the horse in either race,in the last laps anyway
It looks as though she thought it could break at any time,even when it couldnt hold the back of the horse in front....nothing

I notice that the stewards report says :Raced roughly after start which may explain some of it.

Its easy after the race but C S Lombo basically finished with it at Charlton after coming 5 wide.
Had since been beaten 10m at Cranbourne in a stronger race,chasing a 58.5 last quarter so it was hardly a shock it could get home in 60 after leading.

KP wont be starting $1.7 again soon but Im sure it has its share of ability although its had 3 run & has looked unlucky in at least 2 of them
As an aside,Im a fan of the Kamwood broodmares,not sure why they went to Nuke of Earl though?

seth

 

[Danger Mouse]

wow good day Jasper, fantastic effort! but your arrogance is extremely uh yeah....... ! Going to be difficult having any sort of conversation with you i think! Brooklyn is a super accurate judge, you might do well to listen...

 

[Jasper29]

Yeah I should be giving him some credit, but I cant agree with what he says about Spirit of a Shark.

Like anything tomorrow at Shep? My favourite driver, G Lang should get a couple of wins.

 

[brooklynbute]

Sorry for not reading the last ten pages.
Yeah SDU isnt the toughest horse around.

But if SoaS is that good, why did it go so badly against the good ones in qld? maybe thats why they sent it to Perth?

Just Jasper? Really?

So you dont rate Glencadam? who toyed with Just Jasper a few weeks ago? or Mr Yankee? or Village Ruler?

didnt just jasper run like a 25.9 first quarter and still win a FFA race over there...danger mouse maybe u could get the info of that race..he ran some kind of record for a first quarter or sumthing and still won..i cant remember...i give u that glencadam is a good horse especially last week where he sat 3 wide the last lap and still won i couldnt beleive that...but didnt that horse come from victoria as like a c5 or sumthing and now he is one of your best horses im not sure on that either...im just not rating ur form atm, when u have lombo pocket watch absolutly braining ur best 4yos including waskakie by 20 meters and 30 meters who then goes out and brains ur best horses,,,then a few starts later the bullet gets out stayed by melpark major, who is not our best...im just not lineing up the form any good at all..thats y i think SoaS can go over there and win a fair few races,,,only when he leads,

but to finish this i would rather have decorated jasper, ebony gem and smoken up in my stable instead of glencadam mr yankee or village ruler

 

[Jasper29]

The way you reason sounds like you take the form too strictly mate, they are horses. Not machines. They improve, they have problems, they train on and train off, find confidence, lose confidence etc.. etc..

And times arent everything. I look back at champion horses and see what their best times are- Safe and Sound won five thousand short of a million dollars. His fastest time was 1:57.0. Does that mean he wasnt all that good? Im sure others could name better examples.
There was a horse last year that went 1:53 something at Pinjarra. I cant even remember his name- he hardly won a race after that.

And to extrapolate further, there was a horse at GP called Davey T a few years back, useful horse at best, m3 or 4, on his mark. One night he galloped from the stand at GP, chris lewis fell out of the bike and had both feet on the ground, got back in and he ran second. Was one of the biggest runs you would ever see anywhere- it was all over in the Gig etc.. and there are great photos of Chris Lewis from the race. He started odds on next five or six starts, I dont think he won another race.

How do you line that up? How do you explain it? I dont know, and that is what makes the sport so good.

If we could all do the form and horses would race to that week in week out, we would all be professional punters.

Yeah Just Jasper went something like 35.9 for the lead time, yeah it was a good run, mid winter FFA race. Can he do that week after week- no way- just look what he beat- roydon holmes, demoralizer, hitlon adonis etc.. etc.. will they be around in the summer time? No chance. Sure JJ might snag one or three more when he gets the chance but he is compeditive only. Can he do that week after week- no way.He's not going to set the world alight.

Okay, Washakie- have a look at his New Zealand form. 11 from 32 and placed in 9. In his last NZ start, he thrashed Palomine and got home in 56.8 and just won easy. He ran fourth in the Jewels- Beaten 1.14 metres- he ran 1.55.9 himself- as a three year old. Look who finished in front of him and only beat him by again 1.14 metres- Changeover, Mr Molly and Gotta Go Cullen- do you know how good these horses are? GGC and Changeover would blow Ebony Gem, Pocket Watch etc.. away.

Washakie got here for the nugget and got straight off the plane and straight into hard work. He simply need a break and he peformed like he needed one- couldnt get warm, i think he was going at about 50%.
And look who was training him, Bruno Marrone. He doesnt have too many winners at all.

So he has a break and goes to WA's premiership trainer of the last three of four years- Gary Hall. He wins double the races of his closest opposition. So hes gone from a trainer who may have 10 metro winners a year to one that may have 100. Now add the improvement he would have gained due to the new trainer, and the improvement that he had from the good spell, as well as a bit of natural improvement with the weather etc.- hes flying and as expected.

Im sure the owners would have loved to have had him going like this against Pocket Watch- he would have given him a fair fright.

And then you talk about Glencadam. You are suggesting that hes gone straight from country class in victoria to now a very good horse here and that is because wa racing is so weak and the victorian c5 class is strong. Now look who was training him over there, and as it has been published- D.Milecki recommended him to his current trainer. Id suggest Dan has a pretty good eye for a good horse. He is a typical gangly Live or Die. The good trainers know how to train the Live Or Dies- they are all the same-work them harder and harder and harder and harder. He has obviously responded, relished being trained out of a paddock and has improved out of sight.

Your final comment is laughable. Mr Yankee, Glencadam and Village Ruler. One is a m3 yet to be proven in top class, Glen is a nice free for aller but definitely no superstar and VR is a m1 problem horse with ability. You have compared these horses with Decorated Jasper- future g1 horse who has won like 16 from 35? Ebony Gem- who could claim to be the best 4 year old in Australia and Smoken Up- he doesnt need an introduction- okay well hes in the top 3 horses in Australasia.

Come on mate, now you are a Hawthorn fan- thats like comparing Buddy Franklin to your local club full forward.


Jasper.

 

[SpecialComments]

im a racing fan of all kinds, and have recently just come back on here to see if more people would use this forum more and im glad to see some people have with good opinions and some good knowledge of the industry.
i'm your typical punter i'd say (win on the odd occasion), but outside the idea of winning money, i just like following the horses and see how they go, and try to pick winners when im not betting, just to see if my reads or predictions are right.

Jasper seeing as though u are the WA expert, do you know what has happened to Silent Five, and where is Out To Kill?

 

[Jasper29]

hey mate,
hows it going?

Im pretty sure Silent Five broke down and would say he is finished.
Not so sure about Out To Kill. I have a funny feeling that he might be in the US but i could be wrong.