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2 winners, 2 seconds and still ended up -3 units, sigh... overall + 13.6

Redcliffe tonight

R1 Il Tenore W
R2 Left Zone W
R3 Misscilla W
R4 Navajo Candy W
R5 Wobbly Archer W / Tri 1-2,7-2,7 (5x=1 unit)
R6 Guy in a Hurry W
R7 Unplaced W
R8 Vincent Van W
 
Wobbly Archer late scratching so both bets in R5 are void. Change my bet..

Redcliffe
R5 Quinella 2,7 (10x=1 unit) / Shady Falcon W

Probably best bet of the year to the quinella. It can't miss barring mistakes.
 
Friday
Maryborough
Rc2Mystic Hush W
Rc5Andys Favourite EW
Wagga
Rc1 May I Say W (this ones something special)
Rc2 Carcoar W (at his best wins easy)
Rc3 Scooting Armbro W
Rc4 Sunshine Daisy EW
Rc5 Mister Skye Rocket W
Rc6 Lord Eros EW
Rc7 Rolmeo W

Harold Park
Rc1Fourmore EW
Rc2Julius Appollo EW
Rc3Comet Prince EW
Rc4Just For Keeps EW
Rc5Lucky Merrywood EW
Rc6Mel Karamea EW
Rc7Irish Rip EW
Rc8Merry Lamb EW

Moonee Valley
Rc1Unojoe EW
Rc2Knowlies Crown EW
Rc3Little Sonny Bill EW
Rc4Gloria Lombo EW
Rc5Bold Cruiser EW
Rc6Miss Hazel EW
Rc7Burning Stature EW
Rc8Rib N Burn EW
Rc9Jubilee Ball EW

Gold Coast
Rc2 Secretagent Cullen EW

Saturday
Albion Park
Rc6BeGoodJohnny EW (great race)

Ballarat Rc7 Count De Lira EW
Rc8 El Cigaro Lombo EW

Sunday
Maryborough
Rc2Earls Jewel
Rc5Will Trapper EW
Rc7Down Under Muscles EW
Rc8Save A Sixpence EW
Rc9 Lord Of The Gym EW
Rc10Armed Guard EW

Menangle
Rc1The Lightning Ridge EW
Rc2Merrywood Duchess EW
Rc3Hairy Mclary EW
Rc4For Dear Life EW
Rc5Aldebaran EW
Rc6Wreck Tangle EW
Rc7Shanthailiatrailblazer EW
Rc8Special Albert (going against the Molly Darling MMS quinella!)

$860outlay. :eek:
$984Down! :eek:
Sunday night will be interesting :cool:
 

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4 winners, 3 seconds and still ended up in the red, lol... Even when i win everything starts unders. It's a combination of the punters pooling togeather coupled with the TAB taking to much cut. Extremely hard to find value. I might retire soon. :)

9 unit outlay for 7.7 unit return for 1.3 loss and overall +12.3 unit :(
 
Danger Mouse said:
4 winners, 3 seconds and still ended up in the red, lol... Even when i win everything starts unders. It's a combination of the punters pooling togeather coupled with the TAB taking to much cut. Extremely hard to find value. I might retire soon. :)

9 unit outlay for 7.7 unit return for 1.3 loss and overall +12.3 unit :(
Click to expand...

Have been watching this thread with interest lads & the last comment grabbed my attention.
Just wondering if you have a staking plan because finding winners doesnt seen to be a problem?
Sadly its only half the battle as we know,especially in harness racing with smaller pools.

Good to hear youve given up betting e/w...that will certainly help.

seth
 
Gold Coast

R2 Faloshea W
R7 Brave Toli W

Penrith

R3 Cant Bluff Me W
R5 Franco Nester W
R6 Hey Rock W
R8 Im Esio Trot W

What staking plan do you suggest Seth?
 
Danger Mouse said:
What staking plan do you suggest Seth?
Click to expand...

Thats hard to answer without knowing a couple of important things DM:

1.Your bank & 2.detailed results history

Happy to chat about it sometime if you like,there are some useful plans out there

seth
 
3 winners and a second... 6 unit outlay for 4.1 return, overall +10.4

Yesterday the horses i liked were paying 1.60 1.20 1.30 1.50 1.50 2.50

Seriously, noone in the world can beat those prices, Franco Nester aside everything else started way unders.

I might cheat saturday night, might be time to break the shackles and toss 100 units on Be Good Johnny! :)

Harold Park
R1 Fourmoore W
R2 New Age Connection W Abercrombie Dexter W

Gold Coast
R1 King Terra W Winsomerama W
R2 Stage Coach Kid W Very Cool W
R4 Motu Fella W
R5 Thunderbolt Cruiser W
R6 Eden Burst W
R7 Cortillion W - Best of the night (2 units)

Gloucester Park
R2 Hombre Higgins W
R5 Mister Odds On W
R6 The Warp Drive W

Northam
R5 Cumbria Warrior W
R8 The Hunter W
 
17 units outlay for 18.4 unit return overall + 11.8

Going to do a wrap up of last night cos i thought the racing was very strong excluding Mooney Valley as i don't follow the form. Also i definately can learn from this entire excercise about value, about ignoring horses on old form, ignoring horses first up!! thats a real killer lately! and ignoring races which are to competetive unless your horse can sit in the first 2 or somethings paying huge overs off the backrow.

Harold Park - Will Star of old is back. Hasn't been the same since he left John Tapp, sat 3wide throughout and still beat them in good time. About time too! Fourmoore the favourite is just no good when it cant lead. Might have been a chance if driven cold but that driver doesn't learn, he does the same thing over and over. Abercrombie Dexter wins easily in low grade and last night he got it, usually a monty in these type of races. New Age Connection ran some good races behind good horses a couple of years ago but hes lost the plot i think, won't be near him till he shows more and Julius Apollo is a dud, i layed that for plenty last night, that horse is just no good against anything even remotely decent.

As for the the rest of the card, Ted Butler shows once again, hes nothing unless he can lead. Candys Prince is a good leader against nothing opposition. Anitom got the right split at the right time, can't read to much into that. Thest of the card... meh

Gloucester Park/Northam

Hombre Higgins = dud, not much more to add to that. Jilsander can be forgiven the way the race was run. Tylo is overated! Mister Odds On has a wonderful sprint for 400m but wouldnt want to be driven that way against better opposition.The Warp Drive was horrible, stay away! Precious Dylan beat nothing so dont read to much into that, was a slow last half. Demoralizer and Fac Et Spiro as usual never finish off there races. Formulaone is an excellent horse when he can find the front and Beena Buster is overated! Morganator is flying against garbage opposition but prerhaps that has more to do by being trained by the in form Peter Anderson, a trainer of the future. Cumbria Warrior strong winner again against nothing opposition, he loves the stand when the leaders are awful, always a good thing. The Hunter was going to win unil it broke on the final bend, thats racing!

Gold Coast

Follow Taffeta Black in these low claimers only, hes to good for these. Winsomerama won well under the Turpins 3 starts back, Richard Hooper took over and now the horse has gone backwards while King Terra his stablemate isn't going much better! Very Cool rated 1.56.2 burning the whole way, tough win! Second and third will be winning races shortly in the name of Stage Coach Kid and Our Brahman Boy, both top runs under the circumstances. Top Shelf Hanover was a very solid win in solid time, can lead or take a sit, hes hard to beat against weak opposition. Viking Beachgirl is a horse to follow when shes drawn to lead, the winner had all the favours so meh, while Motu Fella will win when he finds a race with nothing leaders in it. Thunderbolt Cruiser and Gotta be Bing both got the runs they wanted, Gotta be Bing is a better sit sprinter though and just got there. Our Lexus Lad = very good leader who doesnt quite finish off his races, Eden Burst = sit sprinter or leader, that definately cant do work. Cotrillion beat nothing there, cant read to much into that.

Was good nights racing and tonights even better at the gold coast!
 
Bunbury
R3 Bulla W
R4 Box Trifecta 7,8,9 (2x = 1.2 unit) - Cracking race!
R6 Constellation Easton W
R7 Dusty Rose W
R8 Shoab W - Big fan of this horse, not saying hes great, hes just very honest

Parkes
R7 Four Dollars W

Albion Park
R1 Nickys Falcon W - Last chance, leaders are average at best, every chance here
R2 Good Boy Diesel W - Hoping he can ride home thats the spirit
R3 Simon B Anvil W /Quinella 5,10 (10x = 1 unit) - Will lead but will he hold on?
R4 Fancy Cardshark P - Drawn behind the favourite but could end up 3 back
R5 Da Svidanyia W - Drawn to follow the favourite, good chance to overun it
R6 Be Good Johnny W / Box Trifecta 1,2,8,11 (1x=2.4 unit) - If he leads game over, if he doesnt lead, probably still game over!
R9 Jack and Simon W (2 units) - Will lead and will win, best of the night
R10 Boris Reigns W Hal Thomas W - Hardest race of the night

The big race is interesting, i only rate 4 winning chances. Be Good Johnny, Good Lookin Girl, All Promises and Slipnslide. If GLG holds the lead, we'll see a much better spectacle.
 

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Wow time to find some rope and arsenic after that effort! So many pea hearted efforts there it sent me spinning! Lots of seconds to fifths but that is no excuse, woful night!

19.6 unit outlay, now i'll add up the huge return! ... 8.9 unit return overall +1.1 units

Think i'll give it up when Carltonblue passes me, any day now!

Tougher horses needed!

Menangle

R2 Yushenko Leis W - Hasnt looked close to losing when led and has looked dangerous against better horses when sitting back in the field
R3 Maybe Hall W - Has won many a time making long sustained 3 wide run.
R5 Aldebaran W - Perfect example of what im talking about. Drawn perfect, is a leader, can do it tough, doesnt give in, how does it lose?
R7 Merrywood Prince W / Quinella 3,9 (10x=1 unit) - Mister ironhorse of NSW pacing. Put him anywhere, when hes in form, fights on with the best of them. Unlike Shanthaliatrailblaza who is weak as piss whenever tested, that will start favourite an if gets it easy for the first half of the race will probably win but show it an ounce of agression, it will go down.
Race 8 Endeared W / Quinella 3,7 (10x=1 unit) - Upon further reflection of the last time these horses raced, Make me Smile got an easy lead and was left alone in front. I hope they back it in to a stupid price and Special Albert takes it on. Endeared is flying and was the second best run of that race. If there's a speed war i know who i want to be on. Besides one will start 1.50 the other should start around 15. I'll take on Molly Darling, i'm hoping it works to hard early or gets buried 3 back the fence. Special Albert is the key here, he must be driven out!
 
Furious at the results today and i officially give up! All up to you Carlton to show us how its done!

I do have a rant though for each race.

Yushenko Leis was following Virage against a garbage leader in Maudie. Why go around and death seat when he could have been saved for one quick dash at them following the perfect horse to give him a ride into the race. Better still if he was so determined to go around and death seat then why wasn't he speared away at the start to lead? runs a battling third while Virage wins easy - 2/10 drive

Maybe Hall - The leader is rolling along breaking 31 every quarter over 3000m trip. So whats Blake the genius do? Decides to start the 3 wide line then gets caught when some 1000-1 shot pulls out in front of him, takes the deah seat, pours the speed on and won't let him in. Has ever a race been setup more then for Monstrose Kid there and that wasn't mpressive either, no sooner had it hit the front whe the leaders collapsed then the donkey Yankee Megastar looked like it might still fight the race out with it. Unplaced 1/10 drive

Aldebaran was to good, armchair drive, anyone could have won on that even Blake and thats saying something.

ShanthaliaTrailblaza driven by the brother Cameron this time drives the horse exactly the way it shouldn't be, agressive early, first beat, ran 100m last at 1.90.The driver on Merrywood Prince decides to make his move early for the death when the leaders are still rolling and worked hard to get it, hits the front around the corner but not suprisingly had little left when the sit sprinters made there charge, slightly dissapointing regardless.

-10/10 drive Shanthaliatrailblaza 5/10 drive Merrywood Prince

Last but not least all the morons here drove exactly to plan excluding Special Albets driver who drive his horse correctly. Make me Smile at 2.10 driven out like a rocket and cant cross Special Albert, gee what a suprise, Molly Darling takes the sit behind them. Now for my biggest rant here. Blake Fitzpatrick.... From gate 3, somehow doesnt get the back of MMS, how the f could you drive so bad but wait its not so bad, he still ends up 1-2 back on the back of Scolari, not a bad spot in striking distance of the leaders. 600 to go, Lucky Elsie pulls out 3 wide and gos around while the genius stays put on Endeared putting it in a pocket, Scolari pulls out in front of Lucky Elsie and and charges around them and hits the lead when Blake was following it but decides its better to ease here and look for the gap around Lucky Elsie which only appears half way down the straight when the bird is flown. Gets warmed up late but what can you do when they run home in 27.3 when the race is over. Then he fires in a protest against Sequoiahs Spirit for god knows what reason. Could any driver, anywhere f a race up more then he did there. If he originally takes MMS back from the good draw, she wins, if she follows Scolari through, she wins, If she goes first in front of Lucky Elsie, she wins.

-100/10 drive

meh harness racing and the Fitzpatricks can kiss my arse! :)
 
And people still ask why the Kay/Van Ren/Gadsby group took their horses away from Fitzpatricks.......

Im no huge wrap for Lance,certainly not as big as you DM but at least he puts them in the race.

seth
 
Seriously Seth, do you think i have a point or do you have a different perspective? What did you think of some of the drives today at Menangle? Did you see the run of Captain Joy, sick run!

Maybe after i have cooled down, i think i might just work on speed mapping races from now on and try and get that more right. Might be the best value in that alone, what do you think? I think half the battle is trying to work out what these idiots ar going to do in the first lap!

Sorry for the questions but things have got to change, thats for sure!
 
sounds like ive missed some intriging racing :(

And May I Say $30!
Scooting Armbro $28
Lord Eros $57

Comet Prince $18
Mel Karamea $24
Irish Rip $54 (spewing, papers had him paying a lot more)

Bold Cruiser $17
Miss Hazel $46
Rib N Burn $10
Jubilee Ball $23

SecretAgent Cullen $20 (scr)

BeGoodJohnny $28

El Cigaro Lombo $56

Earls Jewel $13
Will Trapper $10
Save A Sixpence $28
Lord Of The Gym $17
Armed Guard $19

For Dear Life $21
Aldebaran $28

$547 total return :(
$437 down :(. If I get to $500 down I'll give up !
 
Nah didnt see Menangle...it was Redwood day at Maryborough which is a track with well established patterns.

I dont really bet away from Vic harness & personally I wouldnt be betting at any track until I had 12 months of results...just my preference.
As bad as MV is,there are a lot less variables...a lot less cowboys too.

From the little Ive seen of Menangle it looks like a velodrome.
The other problem Ive heard is that Sky show a head on view of the back straight...is this true?
Makes it impossible to clock last halves if it is.

seth
 

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lol don't worry about it Carlton, tough weekend! I got one of the funniest things i have ever seen to cheer you up, watch the slow motion of the guy on the outside horse s he passes the leader, you'll piss yourself laughing! ... Fair enough Seth, seems like you put a lot of work into it!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6Qy4g6sy_Y

and watch this thing go, best pacer in the world?

[YOUTUBE]cfk5FLQVtnI[/YOUTUBE]
 
Yes & no,cant do anything about how they drive them but I do think harness racing form isnt that hard to do.
Last lap videos are available for every track & it's obvious which horses have trialled well from the price they come up on the tote.
Betfair is great because you can seriously back your judgement.

There's no way I could keep up with the form from more than 1 state like you guys do

seth
 
Come on Carlton, you can't give up yet, so we had a bad weekend, lets get back to the drawing board! If things still go bad, just keep fighting on till we get it right!

Theres a race in 5 minutes at Albion Park in 5 minutes, time to test my new theory!

Rating horses now in 3 categories SPEED TOUGHNESS LEADER - All 3 = ding, ding payday

Race 7

Strathfire - speed, leader
Eden Burst - speed, leader(?)
Our Advancealot - speed
Bulletproof - toughness, speed
Stage Coach Kid - Toughness, speed

With 2 minutes to go heres a fast wrapup. Strathfire should lead but will he he hand up to Eden Burst. Eden Burst showed last start, hes got zero stamina so one would think that would have to lead and get a soft run to win. Our Advancealot will need to get up into the death or 1-1 cheaply to be close enough overpower them. Bulletproof hasnt been trying yet, at his best, he kills the front row. Stage Coach kid has form and the right ingredients to beat these but a bad draw. Should be driven agressively around them.

Stage Coach kid / Bulletproof best chances
 
Okay that went okay! Didn't win but the 1.60 shot Eden Burst didn't win either. Both Bulletproof(fifth 17-1) and Stage Coach kid(third 6-1) death seating and leading the 3 wide line were right there till the end but got overun late by Lively Highlander(ugh) who got the perfect trail behind Stage Coach kid. I will get this right eventually!

Rest of the card

R8

Red Harmony - leader
Miss Drama Queen - leader, speed
Lulu Nitro - speed
Fancy Cardshark - leader, toughness, speed

The way i see this. Red Harmony ex NSW pacer in the market but looks a very average leader. Miss Drama Queen chance only if finds the front. Lulu Nitro follows Red Harmony, chance here if Red Harmony takes it to the corner. Fancy Cardshark big, big drop in class in here, the won to beat.

Fancy cardshark on top and should win

R9

Jacka Blyton - leader, speed
King Galvinator - toughness
Mad Mel - speed

Jacka Blyton to the front, king galvinator sits outside. Mad Mel will try to sweep home.

Jacka Blyton or Mad Mel

R10

Cook Town - leader
Tenderloin - toughness
Anothermax - toughness

Cook Town and Anothermax both overs on early market
 
Fancy Cardshark wins! Good all around horse in slightly weaker grade!

R11

Nathan Armbro - leader
Jag Courage - leader
Colours Flying - leader (?) , speed
Perfection on Ice - Leader, toughness, speed

Nathan Armbro sucks and Jag Courage is only slightly better. Colours Flying has made good ground on 2 occasions in slow last halves against slightly better horses. Perfection on Ice though looks a standout though against these!

Perfection on Ice should get around to the death and should win easily on recent form!
 
I'll have a go friday at a couple of meetings.
A friend said menangle times are too good to be true even if it is a 1400m track. Done some looking at the quarters on the results section of the website and have some differneces between my maths and there maths.


29/6 Earl of Mots trotters mile.
29/6 How convenient no times for Smoken Up record.
1/7 Slippery Nemo - just odd most race times go up 0.1 of a second instead of down.
8/7 Fighting Irish - no way could a precious 2yo not break 2.00 today we better say its 1.59.9
8/7 Captain Joy, quarters have him at 1.55.8 instead of sites 1.55.9, didnt they want him to beat Hurricane Jetts record at a smallish meeting?
14/7 Artesian Bay - again just odd they normally add time instead of deduct if they tinker with it.
After just 3weeks of tiny misdemeanors every now and then theyve started to get serious:
20/7 Gotashotaway
20/7 Aldebaran. Heres the main one. I have her at 1.55.8 they have her at 1.55.6, have they went one step to far and made the others look worse?
22/7 Dream Craft

Also 20/7 For Dear Life 2yo went 1.55.9 by my maths but they have her down as 1.55.8, hence claiming 2yo record. Backtracking to 29/6 NSW Sires Stakes 2yo MR should be 1.55.8 for Hurricane Jett instead its 1.55.9. 2yo record went to Captain Joy later in the day anyway.

Pedantic about nothing? Maybe. But maybe its impossible to clock last halves for a reason? Any where we can watch Smoken Up race on replay?
 

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