DM, I use a system involving trials and times, and usually follow that horse for about a month. Barrier draws don't really come into it. The worse the draw, the better the price most times. As you can see, you can get a few "overs" sometimes.
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Harness Tips
- Thread starter carltonblue
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DM, I use a system involving trials and times, and usually follow that horse for about a month. Barrier draws don't really come into it. The worse the draw, the better the price most times. As you can see, you can get a few "overs" sometimes.
a4brianp
Club Legend
Very much the same as my system but you missed Jalj on Monday well done.We had all of these on insiderail.
Barney
I would have thought you might have. I was once on Insiderail. Good sight.
Well done for getting those as well. Some great prices!!
Great work bernie....
Just goes to show,again that harness racing gives you a chance to make a profit.
Majority see the shorties & give the same old line about no value in harness
Yet we have two guys here going ok off their own trial systems which throw up $10+ winners.
Imagine trying to make a living from following thoroughbred trials.
Both racing channels have a trials program for a start.......
IMO barriers are still important in harness but not as important as the tote reflects.
I notice Royal Steel got the Maffioso semi Sat night.
seth
Just goes to show,again that harness racing gives you a chance to make a profit.
Majority see the shorties & give the same old line about no value in harness
Yet we have two guys here going ok off their own trial systems which throw up $10+ winners.
Imagine trying to make a living from following thoroughbred trials.
Both racing channels have a trials program for a start.......
IMO barriers are still important in harness but not as important as the tote reflects.
I notice Royal Steel got the Maffioso semi Sat night.
seth
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Danger Mouse
Club Legend
Alright cool, i can't guage trial form personally, doesn't seem to come into play whenever i notice it expecially in W.A where they give the trial form in the guide. Example, Glencadm, Tee Pee Village and a couple of other good ones dazzled home in a trial then were in that stand last week first up. Azerbijan (spelling) from the better draw, led walked them, dashed home and paid double figures. It's good though that someone can work them out though!
DM,
I only follow the trials in Victoria. I follow that state most. Also, i rarely look at trials with fast class horses in them. I use a mile rate system that is good for each track. Also the barrier the horse came out of gives me a good indication. Also take in to account the number of horses in the trial.
Seth,
I dont think Royal Steel will beat Maffioso. Not with that draw. You know where B Gath will be heading!!
Danger Mouse
Club Legend
2 races last Friday come to mind, the Redcliffe Oaks and the Pink Bonnet at Harold Park. The punters sent out Another Joy and For Dear Life out odds on from bad gates. In both races respectively the main danger drew better, led and won.
We can even look at Good Lookin Girl in the big race a couple weeks ago. Punters send her out favourite inside the back row, she could only manage fourth, yet imagine she drew the front.
Very Cool vs Be Dilligant in that big race as well. I think Be Dilligant went out like 1.50 off the back row. Very Cool leads, dashes home in 57, Be Dilligant gone before the final bend leading the 3 wide line. Then the irony, he wins next start when the leaders go ballistic at each other at 20-1
I know what your saying Seth in a lot of horses with questionable ability start far to short from good gates but in the good races i think the opposite is true in that the punters overvalue the best horse ignoring the gate and undervalue horses that finally get a favourable draw to show there true ability. Cannot count the number of times a horse has a couple of duck eggs next to its name, draws a gate, wins at a massive price and the punters are like wtf just happened!
Make sense? Prolly not! heh
Danger Mouse
Club Legend
Redcliffe tonight
For starts, Dixons could win 6 races tonight, they have by far the best quality horses going around and on top of it, the stable is blitzing at the moment...
R1 - Stars Are Blue.... One of the best runs on the card last week. Sat last, they ran home in 58.8 (29.8) 2.01 mile rate and finished a fast closing fourth, second in a couple more strides. Times might not look crash hot but at Redcliffe thats quick and to come from last out wide is zooming. Outside the front row though hurts but the horse is hitting peak form.
R2 - River Valley Rocket.... Going for value here and the horse is going to need to get the breaks. The race will go like this.... Sunopal will lead, Captain Jujon will sit outside... Now if they don't take each other on, those 2 will fight it out but from evidence to this point, Captain Jujon does roll along even in the death. Heres where RVR comes into play, if Truth or Dare somehow doesnt hold the leaders back and River Valley Rocket gets that spot, hes a certainty! but chances are he will be sitting 1-2 back. If he can be saved till the final corner, he can rush home over the top. Remember hes a fast horse, fastest in the field but he cant work at all, hes all speed and no stamina, if he pulls out 3 wide to early, forget it, he will run nowhere.
R3 - Sir Creasy.... Impossible to go past, hes not as good as people think but again he draws a poor line up. I'll be watching Roma Tee though from the good gate, interested to see if they try lead here
R4 - Navajo Candy..... Impossible to oppose Navajo Candy in any way at all. Should be winning this, really should be winning this, terrible performance if he cant beat these.
R5 - Art of Steel.... Impossible to go past as well, same draw as its first start, finishes strongly. As long as its not attacked early then i cant see it being outsprinted on the way home. Oh i blackbooked Invinsible Barnes last week after he lost 40m at the start and still ran fourth, was a top run but not today against this leader
R8 - Victree Reign.... Sat last, off the track on the final bend, made good late ground in decent time, better draw here, i''ll be very interested to see how it performs especially if he can get the 1-1 spot.
Best bets
Art of Steel - Drawn to lead throughout, finishes solidly
Other best bets
Navajo Candy - Class edge
Sir Creasy - Class edge
Best performance last start
Stars are Blue - Made huge ground in a quick last half
Best Value
River Valley Rocket but must secure 10.00+ ... single figures isnt value
For starts, Dixons could win 6 races tonight, they have by far the best quality horses going around and on top of it, the stable is blitzing at the moment...
R1 - Stars Are Blue.... One of the best runs on the card last week. Sat last, they ran home in 58.8 (29.8) 2.01 mile rate and finished a fast closing fourth, second in a couple more strides. Times might not look crash hot but at Redcliffe thats quick and to come from last out wide is zooming. Outside the front row though hurts but the horse is hitting peak form.
R2 - River Valley Rocket.... Going for value here and the horse is going to need to get the breaks. The race will go like this.... Sunopal will lead, Captain Jujon will sit outside... Now if they don't take each other on, those 2 will fight it out but from evidence to this point, Captain Jujon does roll along even in the death. Heres where RVR comes into play, if Truth or Dare somehow doesnt hold the leaders back and River Valley Rocket gets that spot, hes a certainty! but chances are he will be sitting 1-2 back. If he can be saved till the final corner, he can rush home over the top. Remember hes a fast horse, fastest in the field but he cant work at all, hes all speed and no stamina, if he pulls out 3 wide to early, forget it, he will run nowhere.
R3 - Sir Creasy.... Impossible to go past, hes not as good as people think but again he draws a poor line up. I'll be watching Roma Tee though from the good gate, interested to see if they try lead here
R4 - Navajo Candy..... Impossible to oppose Navajo Candy in any way at all. Should be winning this, really should be winning this, terrible performance if he cant beat these.
R5 - Art of Steel.... Impossible to go past as well, same draw as its first start, finishes strongly. As long as its not attacked early then i cant see it being outsprinted on the way home. Oh i blackbooked Invinsible Barnes last week after he lost 40m at the start and still ran fourth, was a top run but not today against this leader
R8 - Victree Reign.... Sat last, off the track on the final bend, made good late ground in decent time, better draw here, i''ll be very interested to see how it performs especially if he can get the 1-1 spot.
Best bets
Art of Steel - Drawn to lead throughout, finishes solidly
Other best bets
Navajo Candy - Class edge
Sir Creasy - Class edge
Best performance last start
Stars are Blue - Made huge ground in a quick last half
Best Value
River Valley Rocket but must secure 10.00+ ... single figures isnt value
ChuckNorris
Team Captain
Will have a look at some of these tonight DM. Gonna throw a couple of quaddies on. Any recommendations for the 6th and 7th? Cheers and good luck!
Danger Mouse
Club Legend
race 6 - With Diamonds first start with a top driver. Frostfire is okay, will start short but hardly a good thing from that draw... The bottom one might be interesting Bullybullville, still learning and in the Dixon stable. Don't like Detrimental, don't think you should include that.... but hey iv'e been wrong before
Race 7 - Godamn shocking field... Seriously put the field in... its that bad... No horse here is without a chance
Danger Mouse
Club Legend
Wrapup - 1 winner, 3 seconds and 2 thirds from 6 races (6 selections)
Navajo Candy paid 1.80
One of those nights, so close yet so far. Last race was gay, should have won that, Victree Reign was attacked non stop and narrowly went down(1m). Of course the donkey that poured the speed on early was gone 600m out and finished tailed out. As for my best bet, the horse that sprint laned was just to quick, no excuses.
Oh and i'm really getting annoyed at some of these drivers if you call then that. Seen many horses recently dropping out doing no work carting good horses back in the field. Many are burning there horses early refusing to give up the first 2 spots at any cost even if it means there mounts finish last, just as long as they don't let the other bloke in. I think as Seth put it, lot of cowboys driving far to agressive for there horses ability screwing up there chances and a number of other runners in the process for no other reason then being a hero? As for the trainers bringing there horses to the track in an unfit state and causing intereference, why don't the stewards do there job and stand them down for like 3 weeks as punishment instead of the 1 trial bs...
Navajo Candy paid 1.80
One of those nights, so close yet so far. Last race was gay, should have won that, Victree Reign was attacked non stop and narrowly went down(1m). Of course the donkey that poured the speed on early was gone 600m out and finished tailed out. As for my best bet, the horse that sprint laned was just to quick, no excuses.
Oh and i'm really getting annoyed at some of these drivers if you call then that. Seen many horses recently dropping out doing no work carting good horses back in the field. Many are burning there horses early refusing to give up the first 2 spots at any cost even if it means there mounts finish last, just as long as they don't let the other bloke in. I think as Seth put it, lot of cowboys driving far to agressive for there horses ability screwing up there chances and a number of other runners in the process for no other reason then being a hero? As for the trainers bringing there horses to the track in an unfit state and causing intereference, why don't the stewards do there job and stand them down for like 3 weeks as punishment instead of the 1 trial bs...
Danger Mouse
Club Legend
One bet only today!
Penrith
R5 - Miss Adriana... Drawn to track through from the second line and end up in a lovely spot. In form, hits the line hard if she doesnt have to work during the race, enough said. Can take as short as 1.50, her real price.
Penrith
R5 - Miss Adriana... Drawn to track through from the second line and end up in a lovely spot. In form, hits the line hard if she doesnt have to work during the race, enough said. Can take as short as 1.50, her real price.
Danger Mouse
Club Legend
Wrapup - Booooom! She wins easily paying 2.20... thought she might start around 3.50 or so but i continue my run of everything i like starting short. I mean i know the horse is a 1.50 but i didn't expect your regular dude at the tab to get stuck in!
A couple of observations iv'e made today. Punters continously back questionable horses with limited stamina/sprint drawn close to the fence. Don't these guys ever learn? This is how the whole industry is funded yet day after day they keep getting stuck in. My other observation is odds on runners. How many times do they just go down? Quite frequently i say BUT the point i'm getting at is why not bet the place? Okay you run the risk of the horse paying 1.00 money back but frequently the place will pay the same as the win or close to it, sometimes the place pays more then the win! Opportunity there i think and it elimates risk significantly by giving you three chances instead of one!
A couple of observations iv'e made today. Punters continously back questionable horses with limited stamina/sprint drawn close to the fence. Don't these guys ever learn? This is how the whole industry is funded yet day after day they keep getting stuck in. My other observation is odds on runners. How many times do they just go down? Quite frequently i say BUT the point i'm getting at is why not bet the place? Okay you run the risk of the horse paying 1.00 money back but frequently the place will pay the same as the win or close to it, sometimes the place pays more then the win! Opportunity there i think and it elimates risk significantly by giving you three chances instead of one!
Nice Tip last night and great punting Danger Mouse.
Bit of a one way forum here so I will try to contribute.
Gold Coast tonight looking forward to your tips.
Race 1 - Winsomerama - should get a nice trail through from the 2nd line was impressed with its win a couple starts back.
Race 2 - Banking on White Eye Markei getting to the pegs and giving Il Tenore a run for its money not sure tho.
Race 5 - Jimmy to lead from go to woe.
Race 6 - Another lefty see above.
Would love to hear your thoughts DM. Crank out.
Bit of a one way forum here so I will try to contribute.
Gold Coast tonight looking forward to your tips.
Race 1 - Winsomerama - should get a nice trail through from the 2nd line was impressed with its win a couple starts back.
Race 2 - Banking on White Eye Markei getting to the pegs and giving Il Tenore a run for its money not sure tho.
Race 5 - Jimmy to lead from go to woe.
Race 6 - Another lefty see above.
Would love to hear your thoughts DM. Crank out.
carltonblue
Cancelled
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Race1-Striking Spirit (got to forgive last couple)
Race2-The Ultimate One (hoping he can step up)
Race3-Eagles Blood (from the front gives him and advantage over the better backmarkers)
Race4-Howards Dillemna (real liked how this filly got home last start)
Race5-Melpark Major (was the best run last week should win despite draw)
Race6-Viva La Fever (best in this field)
Race7-Karlsruhe (hoping he can use the sprint lane, think thats his go)
Race8-Ruthless Knight (very speedy should lead and win)
8 unit outlay.
Race2-The Ultimate One (hoping he can step up)
Race3-Eagles Blood (from the front gives him and advantage over the better backmarkers)
Race4-Howards Dillemna (real liked how this filly got home last start)
Race5-Melpark Major (was the best run last week should win despite draw)
Race6-Viva La Fever (best in this field)
Race7-Karlsruhe (hoping he can use the sprint lane, think thats his go)
Race8-Ruthless Knight (very speedy should lead and win)
8 unit outlay.
carltonblue
Cancelled
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35.9down
Good luck to everyone tonight!
Good luck to everyone tonight!
The Rat33
Debutant
race 1: albert jaccka
race 2: alberado(bet of the night)
race 3: loves to rock
race 4: sledging(good value)
race 5: melpark major or keyang hanover cant decide quinna them lol
race 6: sundonds tiavon
race 7: cincinnati kid
race 8: shackleton(my roughie)
race 9: the power of healing
race 2: alberado(bet of the night)
race 3: loves to rock
race 4: sledging(good value)
race 5: melpark major or keyang hanover cant decide quinna them lol
race 6: sundonds tiavon
race 7: cincinnati kid
race 8: shackleton(my roughie)
race 9: the power of healing
The Rat33
Debutant
harold park race 4 number 8 too bad nz would be my bet of the night will be easily to good for the field, also race 5 number 3 damage conrol should get a very easy run
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Danger Mouse
Club Legend
Harold Park
R3 - Jarendan... 2 starts ago, i'll describe the race. He and the fave came out in a 48.3 lead split. To put that in perpective, it would be similar over a marathon trip to coming out running the first 2 splits in 28.5 and 28.5 at Harold Park respectively,first split in 30.2... How many horses would not be tailed off after running those sectionals in the entire country? ... Anyway they then proceeded to finish off in 32, 32 and 29 yet he still finished fourth beaten 4m while the odds on favourite finished last. Interesting to note, on the same card, the FFA horses came out in 50.3 lead time and the favourites were gone on the final bend! Came out next start start, sat outside Second Dollar, ran it along in 30.7 lead time 31 31 28 off the back, came home in 28.6... Got overun by Lombo Pocket Watch by 6m who did no work and even got the sit on Jarenden when the sprint went on. Today he has Bold and Regal to contend with, a dream scenario on his recent runs!
R5 - Damage Control... Just needs to find a spot without doing any work, can sprint like a champion but cant work at all
Gold Coast
R5 - Wobbly Archer... Tough run last start start, led the 3 wide in quick time and just got overan late, start before led throughout in quick time defeating Shady Falcon who has since came out and ran some awesome races
R6 - Another Lefty... Wasn't rated very well last start on top of being pressured by My Precious. Definately deserves another chance.
Gloucester Park
R4 - Stanley Moore... Forget it went around last start, was hard held in fourth with no clear running room, hes good enough to rush over these.
R6 - Ruling VC... This is a good horse when right, hes far better then these. Hes first up but he did run a close second in a 1.58 trial.... thats actually one of the fastest trials i have ever seen....
R7 - Jacobs Well/Morganator/Fac Et Spiro.... Tough race, 1,4,7,8,9,12 and 14 have a chance but even then i could miss! Have to have a play though as this race is like a Melbourne Cup! Time and time again i see in these high class stands, the horses on the pace win. In fact iv'e seen longshots from the front win these continuously over the last 2-3 years. Jacobs Well might be first up but hes a Gary Hall horse, respect! Morganator owes me, he'll be rushing home late hopefully. Fac Et Spiro sucks when used up early, he can burst at real high speed is saved for one dash though! I will be screwed if Glencadm finds the lead though!
Best bet
Ruling VC - On his trial time and previous excellent form, he'll win without to much hassle.
R3 - Jarendan... 2 starts ago, i'll describe the race. He and the fave came out in a 48.3 lead split. To put that in perpective, it would be similar over a marathon trip to coming out running the first 2 splits in 28.5 and 28.5 at Harold Park respectively,first split in 30.2... How many horses would not be tailed off after running those sectionals in the entire country? ... Anyway they then proceeded to finish off in 32, 32 and 29 yet he still finished fourth beaten 4m while the odds on favourite finished last. Interesting to note, on the same card, the FFA horses came out in 50.3 lead time and the favourites were gone on the final bend! Came out next start start, sat outside Second Dollar, ran it along in 30.7 lead time 31 31 28 off the back, came home in 28.6... Got overun by Lombo Pocket Watch by 6m who did no work and even got the sit on Jarenden when the sprint went on. Today he has Bold and Regal to contend with, a dream scenario on his recent runs!
R5 - Damage Control... Just needs to find a spot without doing any work, can sprint like a champion but cant work at all
Gold Coast
R5 - Wobbly Archer... Tough run last start start, led the 3 wide in quick time and just got overan late, start before led throughout in quick time defeating Shady Falcon who has since came out and ran some awesome races
R6 - Another Lefty... Wasn't rated very well last start on top of being pressured by My Precious. Definately deserves another chance.
Gloucester Park
R4 - Stanley Moore... Forget it went around last start, was hard held in fourth with no clear running room, hes good enough to rush over these.
R6 - Ruling VC... This is a good horse when right, hes far better then these. Hes first up but he did run a close second in a 1.58 trial.... thats actually one of the fastest trials i have ever seen....
R7 - Jacobs Well/Morganator/Fac Et Spiro.... Tough race, 1,4,7,8,9,12 and 14 have a chance but even then i could miss! Have to have a play though as this race is like a Melbourne Cup! Time and time again i see in these high class stands, the horses on the pace win. In fact iv'e seen longshots from the front win these continuously over the last 2-3 years. Jacobs Well might be first up but hes a Gary Hall horse, respect! Morganator owes me, he'll be rushing home late hopefully. Fac Et Spiro sucks when used up early, he can burst at real high speed is saved for one dash though! I will be screwed if Glencadm finds the lead though!
Best bet
Ruling VC - On his trial time and previous excellent form, he'll win without to much hassle.
Danger Mouse
Club Legend
Nice Tip last night and great punting Danger Mouse.
Bit of a one way forum here so I will try to contribute.
Gold Coast tonight looking forward to your tips.
Race 1 - Winsomerama - should get a nice trail through from the 2nd line was impressed with its win a couple starts back. Hard field, i think Scarecrow, Winsomerama have big shows as dooes the likely 3 wide line which should consist of, Star Operator, In Town Tonight and Speed Amber
Race 2 - Banking on White Eye Markei getting to the pegs and giving Il Tenore a run for its money not sure tho. I was thinking about adding it tonight but i don't want to see Il Tenore working him the whole way, on top of that The Ultimate Peg is in good form. Big chance though regardless WEM
Race 5 - Jimmy to lead from go to woe. I hope your wrong!
Race 6 - Another lefty see above. I hope your right!
Would love to hear your thoughts DM. Crank out.
Just added some comments!
Danger Mouse
Club Legend
I thought the same about Too Bad but i don't like the draw, also thinking Drumfire might lead and if he was completely left alone, could be a blowout. Too Bad gets racing room though, should be over! but its a big IF!
Danger Mouse
Club Legend
Anyone having trouble with the tab.com.au website? So f'n slow the last few days, now i keep getting server busy message! grr
carltonblue
Cancelled
- Thread starter
- Banned
- #199
mmm...wagga i would have lost just over 1unit.
after the 1st at HP i would have been just about square.
but at the meeting that matters
sportivo an old blackbooker of mine wins against an obviously over-rated hack!
over-rated next two
didnt catch first3 races!
howards dilemna got to far back
melpark major is good isnt he, chariots invite for sure!
after the 1st at HP i would have been just about square.
but at the meeting that matters
sportivo an old blackbooker of mine wins against an obviously over-rated hack!
over-rated next two
didnt catch first3 races!
howards dilemna got to far back
melpark major is good isnt he, chariots invite for sure!
The Rat33
Debutant
so far going okz with only one of my selections unplaced, how is eveyrone else going?
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