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yeah seth....broadways best lives next door to me and they have always had a huge opinion of it she gave them 50 at the top of the striaght in a trial one day and ran them down...

i didnt fall into the 1.40 but i fell in the 36 on debut when it lost to ananz...it looked as if she was disappointing today but she raced as rough as a robbers dog..forgive but dont forget


Not as rough as those that took the $1.40........
I knew she'd had a virus & it knocked her around recently,its tough to back up after such a big up effort.
Hopefully she'll improve into the semis where she'll be back to $20+

seth
 
underate be diligent at your own peril.u would have seen what he did to them at the redclif 4yo+5yo champs where he was 4 in the last lap and blew them away i think hes a very serious grand circuit horse

It's not that i underestimate him but i liken him a bit to Arkamigo in that hes tough, yes, no doubt but he lacks thats killer dash. He needs the races setup for him at the highest level. Thats the way i see it, i could be wrong, time will tell!
 
Wrapup!

5 winners!! ... Well yeah, still not so good, everything started way to short, i dunno why they are starting THAT SHORT, i mean geez...... and some stupid selections as pointed out earlier!

Saucy Legend won at 1.20
Lucky Elsie won at 1.30
Red Cruiser won at 1.20
Rapid Crusader won at 1.30
White Eye Markei won at 2.30

Still kicking myself for not including Mountain Rainbow at 7.20... man that was overs :(

Blackbookers!

Rapid Crusader is a gun leader, enough said
White Eye Markei is also a gun leader, had to work hard today early and still won!
Saucy Legend will win its next 5 or 6 starts, the Fitzpatricks always look for the easist race

Oh and Our Sir Rocky is a money burner, hes not a leader either, hes a sit sprinter in my opinion, cant do work early, was pressured early, then found nothing in the end!
 
It's not that i underestimate him but i liken him a bit to Arkamigo in that hes tough, yes, no doubt but he lacks thats killer dash. He needs the races setup for him at the highest level. Thats the way i see it, i could be wrong, time will tell!

to be fair...i think be diligent is a far superior horse to that of arkamigo..i no he was coming off a very hot speed but the "dash" he showed from the 500 and sustain it and go straight past arkamigo who was in front of it in the 3 wide line..was a fair effort..u are right in saying that he needs races set up at the highest level..no more going to the breeze, sitting 3 wide and outstaying them against ur johhnys and blackies..but as u say..time will tell.
 

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Tomorrow Maryborough
R4 # 5 Royal Steel
- Cant have this until it learns to race,its mad.cant pull like that against the A graders.
Will pull its head off & make the race for a runner on,probably C Castle

I obviously have no idea....gets handed the front by the fave@ $15 & jogs in??

seth
 
Harold Park - The form from last week can be ignored to some extent, there was a fast lane on the fence, everything all night struggled in the 1 wide line and 3 line respectively.

R1 - GotaShotaway/Yushenko Leis... Gotashotaway in top form, gun draw, is the one! Yushenko Leis could cross, if he does, hes the one! Really keen on Gotashotaway though!

R2 - Comet Prince... Hopefully can take the lead from Fourmoore withut to much hassle, the one to beat if that happens

R3 - Bold and Regal/Endeared... BAG will lead, Endeared will try run over the top (Whata Sandy will get the cheap run again)

R4 - Will Star... Sat 3 wide throughout and won last start, hes the one to beat

R5 - Ima Spicey Lombo.... Better draw then For Dear Life, should lead tonight, will give the fave a run for its money

R6 - Eddie the Eagle.... First up but hes a better horse then Candys Prince, the rest are garbage, just a matter of fitness!

R7 - Rohan Home.... Better draw then Magic Operative, should make use of it!

R8 - Montrose Kid.... Will lead and the one they all have to run down

Redcliffe

R1 - Star Operator.... Last 2 runs ended in second behind the flying Tafetta Black. Hes the one to beat

R2 - Quinella ... Herc the Merc/Als Passion... Als Passion to lead, Herc The Merc to follow, should fight it out

R3 - Prince Humperding.... Best horse here, hardest to beat

R4 - Ark De Ville... Will lead and will win if left alone

R5 - Bustinout Hanover.... Will lead and will win

R6 - Thats the Spirit/Arkamigo/I Am Sam... Dixons will drive each other here, no way will Very Cool get the front and get a soft run and the rest of them are not drawn well. I'm happy with those 3. If Arkamigo leads here by the way, expect a vastly better run.

R7 - Thunderbolt Cruiser.... Much easier then recent few, should win, no excuses

Gloucester Park

R2 - Aliveandwell will bolt in
R3 - Shoab, one of my favourite horses always gives you a run for your money
R4 - Stanley Moore to try and lead throughout
R6 - Precious Dylan go well here, leaders suck so should run on hard
R7 - Sneakyn Down Under is a gun, should win
R8 - Morganator is the best bet of the entire night, should win, leaders nowhere near as good as last week but


Best bet

Morganator - If its under 3.00, forget it

Other best bets

Sneakyn Down Under
Precious Dylan
Aliveandwell
Thunderbolt Cruiser
Bustinout Hanover
Monstrose Kid
Eddie the Eagle
Will Star

Best value bet

Gotashotaway - Really like its last few runs, really dissapointed if he doesnt go close
Arkamigo - Has to lead for this to come off
 
Tomorrow Maryborough
R4 # 5 Royal Steel
- Cant have this until it learns to race,its mad.cant pull like that against the A graders.
Will pull its head off & make the race for a runner on,probably C Castle

I obviously have no idea....gets handed the front by the fave@ $15 & jogs in??

seth

i wonder how much jimmy brown got paid to hand up..i couldnt beleive that...but great tip mate...
 
Yep the rules seem to go out the window when most are only trying to qualify.
Certainly changed the way we looked at our heat knowing a top 3 was enough.

seth
 
Wrapup!

Harold Park - 4 winners and 3 seconds from 8 races (10 selections)

Winners paid 1.80 3.50 1.80 1.30

Redcliffe - 2 winners and 3 thirds from 7 races (10 selections)

Winners paid 4.60 2.10

Gloucester Park - 3 winners, 1 second, 1 third and 1 fourth from 6 races (6 selections)

Winners paid 1.20 3.10 2.30

Hard luck stories? I have to put it in

Gotashotaway gets beaten 1m in a 28.3 final split, that sucks
Bold and Regal and the 3 other idiots who went crazy for the lead ran last, second last, third last and fourth last respectively
Star Operator runs a close up third with the leader breaking 30 every quarter
Himalayan Hawk who i went for on tuesday backs up here, improves lengths and wins at 30-1
Bustinout Hanover (Darel Graham) were clearly talking pre race. Obvious fake attempt to lead with the pole horse holding the lead with yep the stablemate Top Shelf Hanover who i blackbooked following it, that was never going to lose, hope they won plenty because Jeremy on Ice shouldnt have led that race
Thunderbolt Cruiser breaks gear and is retired while the horse i wrapped up last week, Gotta be Bing sails over the top at 8-1
Stanley Moore bolting behind the leaders, never gets clear running room, to the line hard held in fourth never seeing daylight
Morganator... this is the best one, the donkey Wayne Rooney walks every quarter in 33 second splits while the tool Woodley sits last on Morganator. The sprint goes on so he pulls out 3 then 4 wide coming from last and gets beaten a half head. Absolutely brilliant, the punters get that clearly wrong as that horses real price was 1.30 yet in the end it makes no difference

What was good and what wasnt?

Aliveandwell put up another tough win, gun horse!
Stanley Moore obviously
Precious Dylan brained them but the leaders were crap
Sneakin Down Under might end up a grand circuit horse, sick run
Morganator moral beaten
Gotashotaway flying, Franco Nestor just to fast
Scolari flying when he gets a good trail, Endeared is now considered a leader
Will Star terrible, stay away!
Ima Spicey Lombo gun leader
Rohan Home gun leader
The Upper Crust will win its next few i'd say, won easily tonight, now hes the best trotter in NSW.. they take turns!
Gold Pay will keep winning in weak grade, completely missed it, far to good, strong all the way
Ark De Ville gun leader and Another Joy is overated!
Top Shelf Hanover is just a good honest trier, never puts in a bad run
I am Sam brained them, everything behind him was embarassed and Arkamigo should be spelled, not racing nowhere near his real ability and i overated Thats the Spirit, i was wrong there

Frusturating night, i might give up, everything im selecting to is starting near favourite? like wtf.... see how i feel tomorrow but this plain sucks! :(
 
Red Sumarai 3rd at $3.60place
Dark Shadow wins at $2.20
Melpark Major wins at $2.30
Deeana Troy - i massively under-rated Keayang Hanover.
Albert Terrill Scr
Albert Jacka wins at $2.60
Presidential Lane 3rd at NTD!

8.1 units back results in a 0.9unit loss.
 

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Albion Park - tough meeting, very even competetive fields

R1 - The Twister/Redcourt...TT follow through Riversdale, should get a good spot, wont have to work so hard this time. Different horse since changed stabled. (Redcourt the other in form claimer)
R2 - Eden Burst... Will end up 3 back the fence, as long as Legeins Legend can hold its spot to the final bend, will be rushing home along the rails
R3 - Arnies a Fake.... drawn to lead and win
R4 - Good Lookin Guy... Drawn to have a war with Our Lexas Lad, should be a good fight
R5 - Natty Nitro/Winsomerama/Simon B Anvil.... Lot of gate speed on the front row, hoping they get tired late. If Simon B gets an easy lead, hes the one to beat, if not, then i'm looking for a couple roughies to get over the top
R6 - Tipsy Tollgater... Killed his rivals at the barrier draw, drawn to lead and win, standout! Hugely suprised if he doesnt win
R7 - Alwaysanadventure.... gun draw to lead or take a sit, will go close
R8 - It's Big Time Baby/Escape Claus.... She'll (IBTB) go straight around them into the lead or death, the one to beat hands down unless something beats her to the punch. EC if saved for a late dash at them can quite easily storm over the top, needs the leaders to work a bit though!
R9 - Franco Harvard/Presidential Bypass/Beckoning.... Tough race, the first 2 drawn to dictate and the other has a bad draw but rushes home
R10 - Classic Hero/Hal Thomas .... Classic Hero has biltering early speed but first up and Hal Thomas as always will always be in the finish

Best bet

Tipsy Tollgater

Other best bets

Its Big Time Baby
Arnies A Fake

Best Value

Classic Hero - If he produces anything near his best, win easily but again hes first up
Eden Burst - Should be zooming home along the fence
Escape Claus - The old warrior will be rushing home late
 
"If you want the best of best things running around its is on Friday Night

Gloucester Race 7 Number 5

Sneakyn Down Under"

This horse can be, really, Perths best open class horse, i think he is a freak.

Melpark Major is a freak as well his win was amazing, also look for Just Glorious to go through his classes in open grade, trainer/driver has huge opinion and he ran time

and the sunbury boy ghadasbest is a huge chance for the breeders crown and would be nominal favourite if not for the freakish talent of we dare to dream and living on fire, his come from last win was big.

Also follow up Ulitimate Mark, his run was huge

Also good to see prolific placegetter Albert Jaccka break his M0 status...thats now 17 placings in a row!

btw i tipped 4 winners and a 3rd from 6 selections over friday night!
 
Yep Brooklyn your on fire, the opposite to me! Well done man!

Wrapup of tonight

Well i went awful pretty much, no excuses, just tipped badly, iv'e examined it and i know where i'm going wrong apart from trying to find the winner every race, hehe...

My only saving grace tonight was my best bet won but then again everyone and his dog was on it.

17 selections in 10 races for 2 winners and 4 seconds

Winners paid 5.60 and 1.50

Now to why i went badly!

Current formula - barrier vs opposition vs recent reputation semi ignoring how they hit the line = wrong wrong wrong

New formula - barrier vs opposition vs likely position in run vs finishing sprint and that in the key to me finding more winners and exluding so many duds, grinders, horses who only just manage to find the line, horses who cant find the spot they need without doing to much work or horses who may have a kick arse sprint but will settle to far back against good leaders... all about finishing burst and the position they will be in when they make that run.

I'm going to aftertime here and noone can believe me, thats fine but i honestly found 3 of the last 4 winners excluding the trot which i thought i would win now i'll explain

Elzar at 25-1 finished powerfully behind Queen Latifah (how good does Queen Latifah look now by the way) after having no luck at Redcliffe, my selection tonight just battles away on the speed, hardly a strong chance and the rest were one paced as well and up he gets
Deal Us In has been racing in stronger company or should i say against much stronger leaders, he won tonight at 70.00 and i was seriously saying to myself before the race, i bet it wins and wouldn't you know it :( ... the leaders caved in, the rest battled away and he comes over the top
The last race, Initial Lee was going to get it much easier tonight with no leader that rolls along, now he wasn't a monty, i really thought classic hero and hal Thomas were in it in a big way but as it worked out, he got the lead easily, Classic Hero who incidently did fly the start and took the sit isn't right yet, hal thomas ran another second and he won.

Rest of the card SHOULD have went like this,

Redcourt/Nickys Falcon
Eden Burst
Visions of Clancy
Allentown
Good Catch
Tipsy Tollgater
The rest i mentioned

This is just one big work in progress for me and for Carlton i think although hes gone semi quiet, in time i hope i get it right. Got to stop getting peeved at individual results or even a bad night and look at the big picture! Poker works the same, at first i sucked, i tried a million different things and went up and down like a yo yo and now i'm like a wrecking ball. Horses will be the same!
 
Its a constant learning curve for us all Ron....
The harder you work,the luckier you tend to get IMO

seth
 
Albion Park

R1 - Clear Sky Lady
R3 - Our Sister Bliss
R4 - Heza Wonder/Miss Symonds... Heza Wonder has the same trainer as Smarty Jones...
R6 - Hula Gold
R7 - Mirfak Prince
R9 - Jeramiah Shannon

Menangle

R7 - Black Fighter
R8 - Lucky Elsie

Best bets: Clear Sky Lady / Hula Gold

Best value: Black Fighter
 

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Got a couple that I think will do well over the next few days.

Tonight Shepp
R4 # 11 The Negotiator 5th

Tomorrow Maryborough
R4 # 5 Royal Steel 1st $15.70

Terang Sunday
R7 # 4 Radical Assassin 1st $1.10:eek:

Horsham Monday
R5 # 7 Eastwood Countess 2nd SP of $8.20

Kilmore Monday
R2 # 9 Kalahari Prince 1st $6.70

Bendigo Tuesday
R8 # 9 Tab One 1st $13.00

One to go:)

Not bad!
Anyone get on???
 
and todays results,

5 winners from 8 races (9 selections)

Winners paid 1.80 3.90 7.10 3.70 1.20 = 17.7 units

Still not happy though, Miss Symonds bad draw, no cart into the race, finished nowhere.... Hula Gold i put in on repuation and barrier draw, continued her recent run of not finishing off... Jeramiah Shannon has no sprint, pretty ordinary, i got that wrong, full stop.... Black Fighter put in a shocker, soft lead, the sprint on, found nothing but the selection was right

Blackbook - Heza Wonder is a fast beginner who finishes off its races, good win again.

Also should of chose Bustinout Hanover, was so annoyed the other day when he didn't lead i let my bias get in the way.

Still got a long way to go to seperate myself from mug to having a clue.
 
Got a couple that I think will do well over the next few days.

Tonight Shepp
R4 # 11 The Negotiator

Tomorrow Maryborough
R4 # 5 Royal Steel

Terang Sunday
R7 # 4 Radical Assassin

Horsham Monday
R5 # 7 Eastwood Countess

Kilmore Monday
R2 # 9 Kalahari Prince

Bendigo Tuesday
R8 # 9 Tab One

6 selections for 36.5 unit return. You sir are a champion! :thumbsu:
 
Cheers DM:)

Might have a couple more by Thursday.

Pressure is on now though. How the hell am I going to match that effort.

Hey i got a question for you, you don't have to answer but do you consider the barrier draws the most important thing? I noticed with TAB ONE, he was always going to follow out the fast beginner and get the good trail yet most people overlooked that, paid huge overs.... Is that what you saw when you selected it? Or did you just think hes the best horse, screw the rest?

By the way, doesn't matter if you get a few wrong in the future, this is just a bit of fun and its turning out to be a good thread thanks to you and Carlton!
 
Hey i got a question for you, you don't have to answer but do you consider the barrier draws the most important thing? I noticed with TAB ONE, he was always going to follow out the fast beginner and get the good trail yet most people overlooked that, paid huge overs.... Is that what you saw when you selected it? Or did you just think hes the best horse, screw the rest?

By the way, doesn't matter if you get a few wrong in the future, this is just a bit of fun and its turning out to be a good thread thanks to you and Carlton!

great tip bernie keep up the good work guys
 

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