Harness Tips

[Danger Mouse]

eh, crap nite, not suprised... not going to include the first race because i was late posting, so 11 selections for 2 winners 1 third, 1 fourth... winners paid 3.10 and 1.90 = 5

Come to a realistation tonight how markets are framed. Clearly the pros are going solely on times. I know this because if you look at most races tonight, the favourite is generally good draw plus ran good time last start. I have been generally ignoring times in most races, shrug. I find i actually do heaps better in low grade races compared to even fields as its easy to identify the good ones. In the metroploitan races, the only way to seperate them is by looking at the mile rate, last half, last quarter, where they positioned and how they finished off. It's far more difficult and requires a lot more work to make an educated guess. A 5 min squizz at the form isn't going to cut it.

The interesting winner tonight, Jack and Simon paying 20.00 plus... ran a 1.58.2 mile rate in front over the 2100 last start, weakening late beaten 11m in fourth.... Now thats actually not to bad as he was rated far to fast in front.... Now compare that to the favourite Visions of Clancy who sat 3 back back on the rails, in a 2.00.2 mile rate, 57.6 half but only 28.6 last quarter, couldn't reel in the winner doing no work yet pays 2.00.

It's all one big puzzle, i'll keep working at it. At least i have a better idea (well i hope i so) now how to seperate the runners in these sat night felds which i have been really struggling with.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Actually i want to post each race cos i find this really interesting this times idea. This post us about each races winner going on there previous run.

R1 - Maurice George led in 1.59.9, home in 57.4, was favourite and deserved to be.
R2 - Rapid Crusader led and won in 2.00.2 over the 2100, home in 57.6. Now he had a bad draw tonight BUT if you look at his previous 2 runs he sat 3 wide throughout in quick time and wasn't beaten that far at each run. Tonight he paid 7.00. The favourite Black Max sat in the death in a slow mile rate but quick last half, couldnt reel in the winner. At his previous run in a good mile rate, slowish last half, slow last quarter, he just won sprint laning.
R3 - Speed Neptune ran on stongly out wide from near last in a slow mile rate, quick last half. Paid 4 dollars and drew the pole tonight. The favourite Delvin Sonadoc was first up and could not make ground at his previous 2 runs in slowish mile rates, but quick last halves, his last win was in a very slow mile rate, very slow last half and final quarter.
R4 - Ex Are Six paid 3.10 and could not make ground at any of his previous uns in quick halves, he just won tonight and only because of the gun draw. The favourite Good Boy Disel ran on fairly well in a quick last half, slow mile rate. The Timely Trader should have been favourite though, had the draw and just missed in a photo, paid overs and backers unlucky.
R5 - The Market Minor paying an amazing 7.20 tonight won last start in a solid mile rate, solid last quarter from the 1-1. Costa Razoo the fave won last start having perfect run in a slow mile rate, slow last half, slow last quarter and won just!
R6 - Mentioned it above
R7 - Heza Wonder a horse i have been a big wrap for unfortunately won last start in slow time, slow last half. The favourite Woodlea Glenn had the gun draw to follow him, had been running against far better opposition and in quick time at his previous run. That was never ever going to lose. Heza Wonder improved on his previous run and still held second tonight. Benny Mac who the punters keep coming for every start is seriously overated against good opposition, that horse really needs a gun draw to beat anything decent.
R8 - Every horse in that field had been running pretty ordinary times. Not suprising to see the NSW raider take it out.
R9 - Stage Coach Kid the fave, was buried, ran on strongly although beaten 9m in a 27.2 zip up the str8. At his previous run, did a heap of work in a fast mile rate when beaten 2m. Deserved to be favourite and won accordingly. Turing my selection tonight i still believe is one to follow, good first up run for third.
R10 - What Ever you Like a squaregater beaten 9m against the pacers in a 1.57.3 mile rate, 58.8 last half.... nothing in that field could do even remotely as good. What was i thinking going Its Big Time Baby? WEYL was never going to lose that.

I think this is facinating personally, there has to be other people out there who look at the form similar, i just know it!

 

[brooklynbute]

Moonee Valley

Race 1 Number 1 - Calder Image (One dimensional sit-sprinter who has the draw) (4th - ran usual honest race, lost the race when the position behind leader wehn the speed went on one lap out)

RACE 3 NUMBER 9 - ULTIMATE MARK - BEST BET OF THE LAST CENTURY (My dear lord will you ever see another certainty in a race like this ever again)(2nd-This loss had to be seen to beleived. Ultimate Mark had every chance, he ran 4th in a victoria cup when made a move mid race, yet just gets beaten by a horse who struggles in C4 stand starts. Work that out)

Race 5 Number 1 - Howards Dilemma(One dimensional sit sprinter who has the draw and good form against the older horses) (2nd-This horse looked home for all money when just got touched off on the line, had every chance, take on trust in future

Race 7 Number 6 - Cincinnati Kid(Awesome win last start, can lead or take a sit on Smooth Crusa, either way he should win) (1st-Showed brilliant gate speed and just held off a late challange of Deanna Troy, good win.)

Race 8 Number 6 - Broadway Play - Could sit on the outside fence and win this race.(Not far behind of Ultimate Mark on the best bet scale) (1st-Regulation win by a smart mare.)
Harold Park

Paleface Adios Sprint - Race 5 Number 1 - Ebony Gem (Will get the back of Fluer De Lil and has an awesome turn of speed. Caldow can get her over the line.) (1st-Led all the way, brilliant drive, brilliant win)

Race 6 Number 5 - Make Me Smile (We are laying the grey flash here as he is an overated animal, Make Me Smile will cross to lead and if he doesn't hand up can he out-sprint the bullet) (1st, led all the way in a very good race where he held out the flash, always worth a ticket when off the front line)

Gloucester Park

Race 6 Number 8 - Sneakyn Down Under (Potentially the best horse in the west and will blow these away) (1st-Was short but i took the tomato sauce and got the money, won by 30 meters in slick time)

 

[brooklynbute]

Ballarat

Race 1 - Schultz and Very Chic Quinella(1st-3rd.This Shultz is no good at all never on it again, filly too good)
Race 2 - Ultima Chance(1st-Great Caldow drive yet again)
Race 4 - Three Docs Rocking(8th-Beaten 48 meters, had a gut buster, not suited to the mile)
Race 5 - Dance With Armbro(3rd-Ran a grat race at huge odds)
Race 7 - Armbro Excel at 100-1 will run a giant race but there is no third.(5th-I can't beleive these words came out of my mouth)

Globe

Race 4 - Dee Dees Dream(1st-a great FFA horse and it was a good tough win)
Race 6 - Oztreos(2nd-Beaten a nose, an AWSOME run, has to be followed, 4 wide, 3 wide, death, challenged leader, back to death and just got touched off on the line)

Albion park

Race 3 - Delvyn Sonodoc(11th. Galloped at start and lost all chance over the mile)
Race 6 - Cool Jasper(5th-Got stuck 3 back the pegs and it was over then)
Race 7 - Woodlea Glenn(1st-Could have had my house on this, was never going to be beat, could be a top class sit sprinter only.)
Race 9 - Stage Coach Kid(1st-Regulation win by a good horse down in class)

Wagga(never betting here again)

Race 2 - Urbane Bromac(11th, never again)
Race 5 - And May I say(Retired from race)
Race 6 - Holy Camp Boy (5th-Got a long way back but flew home, follow this horse)
Race 8 - Elixir(1st, too good)

 

[brooklynbute]

Australian Pacing Gold 3YO heats and theres money to be made here by having a simple parlay formula.

By doing this.

Race 2 - Maffioso - Win.
Race 5 - Muscle Beach - Place.
Race 6 - Whiskey And Ice, Rohan Home - Quinella.
Race 7 - Magic Operative - Win

For $50, your looking at getting back maybe $250.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Just reading your posts, didn't know there were good ones going around tomorrow. Anyway what do i see, Loosen the Load from the pole up aginst Maffioso.

Hows the heats work? Winner get into the final or first 2 or is it a points system?

How fast is Maffioso out of the gate cos Loosen the Load is a pretty smart leader (never lost in front) and been running brilliant time recently but he doesnt fly the gate...

 

[Island Bomber]

Maffioso will lead, very quick out.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Then you boys would be right in going Maffioso. I'd love to see how good LTL is against a real good one leading but not today i guess.

 

[brooklynbute]

LTL tried to lead but Maffioso was too quick out although LTL held him for a bit Gath had none of it and although it took him a while to cross he got there. LTL was beaten a long way into 2nd after having run of the race.
Hes not up to the Vics.

 

[gothedons]

keep up the good work Danger Mouse! like your tips and how u put an explanation makes for good reading, or makes me study the form a little bit longer when u have that! anything for today?

 

[Danger Mouse]

Albion Park - Haven't studies them at all so take these for what its worth...

R2 - King Galvinator place (flew home sitting back on the fence in a blistering fast final split)
R4 - Camber Lad to win (best bet and picking up free money, lead all the way)
R5 - Melton Next Bonny to win (made good late ground from last for third in an okay last half, previous run got overyn late when leading against 2 good ones)
R6 - Zennie Rose/Perfection on Ice quinella - Zennie Rose led the 3 wide line and just missed against 2 horses who both came out and won again. I'm gazza from that race won coming from last at his next start. Perfection on Ice will follow it everywhere and is far to good to dismiss.
R7 - Rivulet - Looks outstanding prospect against a bunch of horses with gate speed off the front row. Don't think lot will fly home breaking any records. Trails through nicely, should be charging home late.
R8 - Darkwing - Flew last start, must be on again. Good chance from the death, unbeatable if finds the front.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Menangle

R4 - Scarlet Shiraz - (likes menangle, never far away, been held up 2 of her last 3 runs when not far away and the other she won)
R7 - Atlantic Mission - Just like the times its been running
R8 - Ascana - Been running good times recently with not much luck and this is a big drop on her recent runs.

 

[Danger Mouse]

poor effort

9 selections over 9 races for 2 winners and 2 seconds

Winners paid 7.80 and 1.10 = 8.9

From here on out, i'm completing ignoring what i know about each horse. Scew that! I'm just purely going on times. No more blackbooking, no more raving on about any horse.... the times have to be there, thats all that matters, its the only thing pointer you have... plenty more value in say a C0 then you'll find in any metroplitan final, sometimes the winners are standouts, pay double figures because all anyone can think of was gee that horse is consistant, who cares if hes only running 59 halves, just have to be on it! ... meh... As each day passes, the more this sport annoys me but i'll beat it, even if it kills me!

Will do Bendigo tonight and Gloucester Park, i know nothing about them and i reckon its better that way, selections up soon.

 

[brooklynbute]

I did like 20 selections tip about 15 winners...and danger mouse gets the recognition...im 3-0 up on him in arguments and ive only been posting for 3 weeks...come on danger mouse lift your game kid.

Anyway, looking forward to some great racing and some good things running on Friday night with The Chariots Of Fire and the Australian Pacing Gold finals which will make for good watching..ill actually be down at Moonee Valley...ill be putting in my EVER SUCCESSFUL tips in later tonight, which again im very confident. Especially with Steven Duffy taking his exiting team to Harold Park.

 

[gothedons]

I did like 20 selections tip about 15 winners...and danger mouse gets the recognition...im 3-0 up on him in arguments and ive only been posting for 3 weeks...come on danger mouse lift your game kid.

Anyway, looking forward to some great racing and some good things running on Friday night with The Chariots Of Fire and the Australian Pacing Gold finals which will make for good watching..ill actually be down at Moonee Valley...ill be putting in my EVER SUCCESSFUL tips in later tonight, which again im very confident. Especially with Steven Duffy taking his exiting team to Harold Park.

lol sorry mate, havent been following the arguments too much, but saw u get a nice couple of winners there! i will follow your friday tips intently, and if u get me a few winners will give u more recognition

 

[brooklynbute]

MOONEE VALLEY

Race 1 - Motu Armbro Scott (this horse would be one of the best trotters we have but the driver is unable to use the whip on it, can breeze and beat these)

Race 2 - Cool And Casual (Juanita Breen runner who improves with every start and finally draws a gate, last 2 wins have been astonishing)

Race 3 - Broadway Play (Just a regulation win last start against own sex but will be driven with a sit and she thrives with that)

Race 4 - Real Life (Smart Webster runner who will end at 3 back the pegs at worst case scenario, but produces a giant turn of foot when held up)

Race 5 - Dazed And Confused (This filly is absolutely flying and if she gets across the markers and sits on Kept For Pleasure, the race, ladies and gentleman, is over, and at a price)

Race 7 - Maffioso (About 400 leaders are drawn inside of him but i think he has the speed to lead and if he cant get across Royal Steel, he will persist until he does, from there on he will win, one of the best front runners in this country)

HAROLD PARK

Race 2 - Village Warrior (My favorite horse has drawn perfectly for this over the mile, he can't lead or else he will choke down, therefore he always takes a sit, being no sprint lane at Harold Park poses a problem, all he needs is 50 meters of clear running and its all over, this horse's sprint down the straight has to be seen to be believed)

Race 4 - Make Me Smile (This forums favourite horses has drawn 1 over the mile, cannot be beaten when in front, the race seems is already over)

Race 5 - Ebony Gem (Will start big odds and looks out classed, but he defiantly is not, may lead or take a sit and at a price he can win, this race will be an amazing spectacle)

Race 7 - We Dare To Dream (Steven Duffy will be looking for a double here and if this loses I will never post on here again, he is a good thing)

Race 8 - Right Interest (Absolute class above then these one paced trotters, absolute certainty beat here last week but should atone for that here)

GLOUCESTER PARK

Race 4 - Ohakas Artsplace (Would be my favorite horse in the west if it wasn't for that superfreak Sneakyn Down Under. An astonishing win last start when sat 3 wide last lap and won by the length of the straight, he is a city maiden but looks better then these if he goes back or forward early)

Race 6 - Franco The Man (Being set for the Fremantle Cup, so he should step away fast as usual, run around to the front and take care of this field with ease)

Best Bets - We Dare To Dream
Ohakas Artsplace

Best Each Way - Dazed And Confused
Ebony Gem

Best Value - Right Interest
Broadway Play

Good Luck

 

[brooklynbute]

lol sorry mate, havent been following the arguments too much, but saw u get a nice couple of winners there! i will follow your friday tips intently, and if u get me a few winners will give u more recognition

haha good luck mate i hope u do well, im pretty confident friday night.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Bendigo - See how this fares, good test....

Race 1 - Tab One - won
Race 2 - Windinyasoup - was second in the home straight challenging for a win when galloped
Race 3 - Sonofagun lombo - won
Race 4 - Punt High - won
Race 5 - Glowing Jasper - second .... winner ran a 57.8 half (form didnt show that)
Race 6 - Mister Clancy - won
Race 7 - Advanced Crossing - fourth beaten a length ... little dissapointing, should have won with the run it had
Race 8 - Banking on Scotch - second .... winner went beserk in front going super fast splits (had shown nothing up to this point) setting up 40m lead half way through the race

Well that test proves my point. I know hardly anything about most runners from Victoria but by following only times i was right there in the finish in every race. Think i'll stick to going solely by times till proven otherwise.

Didn't mean to edit, meant to quote... oh well..

 

[Danger Mouse]

I did like 20 selections tip about 15 winners...and danger mouse gets the recognition...im 3-0 up on him in arguments and ive only been posting for 3 weeks...come on danger mouse lift your game kid.

I'm not trying to compete nor am i overally interested in going for short priced selections. If you haven't noticed i'm trying to go for longer priced winners and trying different things in very even fields while your just picking and choosing select races with obvious good ones.

 

[brooklynbute]

I'm not trying to compete nor am i overally interested in going for short priced selections. If you haven't noticed i'm trying to go for longer priced winners and trying different things in very even fields while your just picking and choosing select races with obvious good ones.

u pick ur fair share of shorties as well mate. but i agree with u tonight at bendigo with most of ur selections....3 of them being short priced favorites. so dont talk shit to me about it when u do it as well. This business has sent me to darwin, gold coast and got me a new car, so i guess those "shorties" work out well for me

As for arguments and shorties, i think be diligent and make me smile have sumthing to say about that

 

[sethlad]

Play nicely lads

Harness racing throws up plenty of shorties...we all know that
Tipping punters into $1.30 chances doesnt really take much effort though.

Im more interested in which shorties are under the odds,personally thats where the money is for me,eg Fleur De Lil at Redcliffe

seth

 

[brooklynbute]

In a race which be diligent won

 

[Danger Mouse]

Play nicely lads

Harness racing throws up plenty of shorties...we all know that
Tipping punters into $1.30 chances doesnt really take much effort though.

Im more interested in which shorties are under the odds,personally thats where the money is for me,eg Fleur De Lil at Redcliffe

seth

So i'm assuming you just lay false favourites?

 

[brooklynbute]

i dont understand how u could constantly win off laying false favorite's as u can never profit alot of money and most will get up anyway at that price. Ive done it a bit on betfair when i have herd a fav cant win but i cant understand how you make money of it at a constant rate. Care to explain?

 

[sethlad]

Ok,in short I price every race,its not that hard when youve been doing it a while.
My markets are not always right but if the results go wrong,at least I know it wasnt due to my lack of input.
People seem to trust them so thats important.
Thats why I stick to Vic harness only,easy to know the pool of horses.
I dont bother with the outer circuits like Nyah,Cobram etc or restricted meetings.
I take some notice of trials but not that much,TAB opening price is a giveaway.
I watch a lot of replays.

Most punters could be quite good at it if they didnt try to be good at everything.
If I bet on sports etc I take advice from people who do it for a living.

BB I dont understand why you dont believe laying false faves cant work.
Happy to lay virtually anything @$1.5 or under if its the right one.
Most punters will take unders because thats the way they were introduced to punting.
My goal is not to win big,its simply to consistently win.....thats where we are clearly different.
Good for you that you wanna tell us how successful youve been with the shorties......$1.2 or $1.3 chances arent for me.

DM I do lay but I mainly arb from my market.
Liquidity is an issue on Betfair but it will improve

seth