Harness Tips

[Danger Mouse]

Harold Park

Race 1 - The Dancing Posum - Went like a rocket last start! Going for this because of her overall mile rate she ran last start in 2.00.2 over the 2100 at Bankstown, home in 58 is flying at that track! The winner who sat on her back out came and won again on Tuesday and they smashed the rest of the field. Now there's one big but here, she must and i repeat must lead, doesnt lead then go have a beer and drown your sorrows! Something you might interesting Brooklyn, remember that race i showed you with all the horses who came out and won the next start or went close... she was in that race and Alfeido also came out and ran a game second last Friday to add to the list. Best form race iv'e ever seen.

Here is a replay of the race (remember the winner came out and won again and it got the cheap sit) - www.harness.org.au/video/nsw/BJC18080809.wmv
Here is the replay of Atlantic Mission at it's next start the horse who beat her, notice he beat some fairly good types - www.harness.org.au/video/nsw/MEC26080808.wmv

Gloucester Park

Race 6 - Korlim Garry ... Led from the stand then got into a speed war in front with Morganator going brutal speed, had to hand up, ran fifth beaten 4m in a 2.01.1 mile rate, 58.8 half which is absolutely flying from the stand! That was a hot field, this is miles easier. To put the lead time into perspective, they went 67.1 from the stand, the FFA pacers on the same card from the mobile went the lead time in 70.1 and only ran .6 of a second faster for the overall mile rate! That shows you what an amazing horse Morganator is and for Korlim Garry to stick to his guns behind him was a great job!

Race 8 - Mister Hannible ... Tough horse, really tough horse. Sat 3 wide for a large portion of the race when finishing hard first up and narrowly missing. Followed that up with another 3 wide all the way performance which was brilliant as the leaders rocketed out in 27.4 for an overall mile rate of 1.56.9. Sick horse going places!

Race 9 - High Chapparel ... Leaders went beserk last start going far to fast, did well to hold second considering the speed they went 1.57.9 overall mile rate. He easily acounted for the rest of the field. Big show from the pole.

Bunbury

Race 2 Anachroism ... Will absolutely brain them on his last run. Pretty much faces the same field. Only issue is i don't know if the tab is covering the first 2 races. Sat 3 wide and went down a lip in a 1.59 mile rate.

Race 5 ... Lord Matao ... Led, rated 1.59.4, home in 57.7, 28.8. Drawn wide, will push forward, looks extremely hard to beat.

Race 7 ... Sea Gale ... Led, rated 1.57.1, tiring late beaten 6m into fourth. Went to fast last start, an easier time in front should see her win. This is also a significant drop in class.

Mooney Valley

Race 3 - Decorated Jasper ... All these Jasper horses are good, anyone noticed? Anyway rocketed home last start beaten a lip in a 1.56.8, 57.1, 27.8 final split, mmmmm.

As for the chariots of Fire....

Ebony Gem - On a slow track, led rated 1.56.9, home in 56.6, 27.7.... No way will they beat this unless its taken on in front.

Best bets

Mister Hannible
Decorated Jasper

 

[sethlad]

Harold Park

As for the chariots of Fire....

Ebony Gem - On a slow track, led rated 1.56.9, home in 56.6, 27.7.... No way will they beat this unless its taken on in front.

Brilliant drive last week when nothing made ground but this is the Chariots.
Not only will it get taken on,Im not even sure its a certain leader.
Keayangs only chance is to lead then hand up so theyve gotta want the front.
These are usually last man standing affairs,as Gp 1's should be.

seth

 

[carltonblue]

My thinking behind the Chariots
EG will lead. FDL will get the death seat early and keep MM out 3wide momentarily before letting him go to the death. KH will keep the 1-1. PS will probably save ground along the pegs, will go back anyway. CUF will go back and save ground on the pegs as well. MM to go to the death (may lead) LPW will end up sitting outside MM at one stage, whether that be for the whole journey or if he goes back then comes 3wide but the same thing will happen as it did in the 4 and 5yo race at the Valley earlier in the year. Be Diligent will go back and hope to get the trail on LPW, otherwise he will have to go himself, maybe getting cover from KH or possible even FDL.

I think MM will win. Ebony Gem is the main danger as he will get a good run. MM has LPW beat because of the draw. Be Diligent is also beaten because of the draw. KH and FDL could certainly get cover and sprint over the top of them late as well. The other 2 are making up the numbers.

If i was driving:
EG would have to lead and only hand up to MM or LPW
KH would try and lead and then hand up to MM or LPW
FDL have a peak early and try and get the 1-1.
PS go back get a 3wide trail late in the race, stay ahead of CUF
CUF go back get a 3wide trail late in the race, stay ahead of PS
MM go forward and try for the lead but be happy with the death, dont hand up!
LPW go back and hope for a 3wd trail and that the leaders go crazy
BD hope for a 3wide trail that they go hard.

My Odds:
MM $2.20
EG $5.50
LPW $6.50
BD $7.50
KH $8.50
FDL $9.50
PS $101
CUF $101

Looking at Fixed Odds now. Only difference is I dont rate LPW and I must rate Be Diligent way too highly! Therefore I'll be backing MM the win and BD E/W!

In the APG fillies the money coming for Dazed And Confused is spot on imo!

Good night of racing tonight cant wait!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Definately see your point Seth but the horse has improved immensely at each run. Will be an interesting start to the race, if he does get crossed by Keyang Hanover, then i hope he pulls off the fence.

These selections below are for curiosity sake. Been studying the times hard, so this is a test, noone should follow these or put money on them! Not taking credit win or lose cos i may be way off, still learning here!

Redcliffe tonight

Race 1 - Miller
Race 2 - Disco Superfly
Race 3 - Flying Chev
Race 4 - Invincible Barnes
Race 5 - Ultimate Time
Race 6 - Shallow Tempest
Race 7 - Melton Lumber Mac
Race 8 - Faloshea

Harold Park - rest of the meeting

Race 2 - Village Warrior/Abercrombie Dexter (cant line up the victorian, so i put best of each state)
Race 3 - Merrywood Prince
Race 4 - Make me Smile/Tip Your Hat (Make Me Smile should be long odds on, so i included Tip Your Hat as i had him running home in around 27.7 last start)
Race 5 - Melpark Major (Should win on times if Ebony Gem cant lead)
Race 6 - Pacific Black
Race 7 - We Dare To Dream/Rip'n Burn
Race 8 - The Upper Crust - (Not worrying about the last quarter, he attacked the whole way, looks the best of good things)

 

[brooklynbute]

Mate, this goes to all of you, Ebony Gem will not hand up the lead, there is no way, no one, especially John Caldow is going to give the race to another horse, because thats what hes doing if he hands up, and to people who are saying they will run along, they wont, in typical Caldow fashion, he will jog them for at least a half and that should be enough to get him home. Horses like the grey and be diligent might struggle to get into the race.

DM, be wary of the times decorated jasper ran, the ran along at an absolute hectic tempo because Gath was desperate to get safari to the front from the 2nd line, he got a beautiful trail into the race behind ebony gem and flew home, but i could have made ground on safari he went that quick, with that run, he has the times on the board, but just be careful. Plus Bendigo is victorias menangle, its a fast fast track when races are run like that, he will probably win, but dont be stepping into short odds with this one.

As for that form race, that is the most amazing race i have seen, every horse has come out and won or ran blinders, just one of them races we see from time to time, but thats the best form race i have seen for a long time.

Those village jasper horses, i no alot of trainers that say they have absolutly no luck with them at all, despite the massive turn of speed, they either go very very fast or very very slow and dont make it to the races.

Sad to see trainer Jack Shelley call it a day at age 91, his last ever runner is in tonight at race 1 at moonee valley drivin by his son brian, alba rama, hopefully he gives him a good send off to a very good career in the business. My old man was the foreman for this stable for years, and many champions have gone through this stable in the last 70 years, Good luck.

 

[sethlad]

Mate, this goes to all of you, Ebony Gem will not hand up the lead, there is no way, no one, especially John Caldow is going to give the race to another horse, because thats what hes doing if he hands up,

You need to actually read what I posted BB:
"Not only will it get taken on,Im not even sure its a certain leader"

Not a mention of handing up there
I've only seen the horse in Victoria,he led in a stand & got run down in 59.2,then went better at Bendigo when they went mad & everything made ground.
Last week he had the B graders chasing him & he got a breather.
On what Ive seen,I doubt he can win with MM outside him...but I guess we'll soon see.

seth

 

[Island Bomber]

Melpark will give Ebony Gem wind burn. The smartest thing JC can do on Ebony Gem is to hand up and go for second, otherwise it won't run a place.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Wow, Decorated Jasper just might be the third best horse in the country behind Safari and Blacks a Fake. That horse is something else!!

 

[sethlad]

You lads are too good for me.

Just watched it again,still trying to work out how LPW didnt win with the run it had

seth

 

[Island Bomber]

Melpark will give Ebony Gem wind burn. The smartest thing JC can do on Ebony Gem is to hand up and go for second, otherwise it won't run a place.

Looks like l under estimated Ebony Gem. I haven't seen the race. Can anyone explain what happened? Maybe l just overrated Melpark.

 

[brooklynbute]

I really hate to say it but...


i told u so


If anyone saw the runs of we dear to dream and decorated jasper, your jaw would have dropped to the floor, that decorated jaspers run was absolutly astonishing, just amazing. And we dare to dream galloped twice, over a mile, got stuck 3 wide for god knows how long then got stuck in the death and went down a head, absolutly amazing run, but since i had all my selections at harold park going on to him as my good thing, in my last leg (for a couple of grand) i ended up with nothing, thank god for webster and genuine star!

As for the run of cool and casual, please look, u will be amazed.

 

[brooklynbute]

MOONEE VALLEY

Race 1 - Motu Armbro Scott (this horse would be one of the best trotters we have but the driver is unable to use the whip on it, can breeze and beat these) (7th - Had too hard of run, but no excuses, winner too good)

Race 2 - Cool And Casual (Juanita Breen runner who improves with every start and finally draws a gate, last 2 wins have been astonishing) (3rd - Was one of the biggest runs of the night, u really have to see this run to believe it DM, get this on replay and tell me that is a horse to follow!!)

Race 3 - Broadway Play (Just a regulation win last start against own sex but will be driven with a sit and she thrives with that) (2nd - Was going to win the whole way down the straight, and piped on the post by a great horse, every chance)

Race 4 - Real Life (Smart Webster runner who will end at 3 back the pegs at worst case scenario, but produces a giant turn of foot when held up) (8th - Never ever got a crack at them)

Race 5 - Dazed And Confused (This filly is absolutely flying and if she gets across the markers and sits on Kept For Pleasure, the race, ladies and gentleman, is over, and at a price) (1st - Run of the race, was too good for Kept For Pleasure, who has had enough this prep)

Race 7 - Maffioso (About 400 leaders are drawn inside of him but i think he has the speed to lead and if he cant get across Royal Steel, he will persist until he does, from there on he will win, one of the best front runners in this country) (3rd - Peter Tonkin, please spell this horse)

HAROLD PARK

Race 2 - Village Warrior (My favorite horse has drawn perfectly for this over the mile, he can't lead or else he will choke down, therefore he always takes a sit, being no sprint lane at Harold Park poses a problem, all he needs is 50 meters of clear running and its all over, this horse's sprint down the straight has to be seen to be believed) (1st - Cant beleive this led and didnt choke down, but was too good for this feild, a very good horse)

Race 4 - Make Me Smile (This forums favourite horses has drawn 1 over the mile, cannot be beaten when in front, the race seems is already over) (1st - Lead them over a mile and was too good, the run of cincinati kid was great, nearly getting Make Me Smile, but just fell short)

Race 5 - Ebony Gem (Will start big odds and looks out classed, but he defiantly is not, may lead or take a sit and at a price he can win, this race will be an amazing spectacle) (1st - Led these a merry dance, caldow kidded to them down the straight, an easy winner)

Race 7 - We Dare To Dream (Steven Duffy will be looking for a double here and if this loses I will never post on here again, he is a good thing) (4th - One of the biggest runs ive seen for a long time and one of the best things beaten ive seen as well, galloped twice and sustained a long and very hard run around them to go down a head)

Race 8 - Right Interest (Absolute class above then these one paced trotters, absolute certainty beat here last week but should atone for that here)(scratched)

GLOUCESTER PARK

Race 4 - Ohakas Artsplace (Would be my favorite horse in the west if it wasn't for that superfreak Sneakyn Down Under. An astonishing win last start when sat 3 wide last lap and won by the length of the straight, he is a city maiden but looks better then these if he goes back or forward early)(2nd - Had a very very hard run and did a great job to hold 2nd, well beaten)

Race 6 - Franco The Man (Being set for the Fremantle Cup, so he should step away fast as usual, run around to the front and take care of this field with ease)(9th - if this horse cant lead, he cant win, terrilble)

12 selections

4 winners
2 seconds
1 third

Three of these were certainties beat, $50 dollars all up on the winners got me up to $2027, but went out when we dare to dream lost the plot. If we dare to dream didnt do what he did, it was $5185 in the pocket, not a bad dividend for a $50 dollar bet, but thats the game we play and i cant complain.

Actually thought Genuine Star was one of the bets of the night although i didnt tip it on here, good odds on course!

Staying away from Gloucester Park in the future, cant win there unless the horse uve backed is Sneakyn Down Under, actually had a very good night at the valley, with some selections paying not bad under each way odds, but some serious bad luck i havnt had for a long time hit me tonight.

 

[Danger Mouse]

You guys should admit when your wrong, i do it heaps, good for the soul! Ebony Gem not good enough? puhlease!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Harold Park

Race 1 - The Dancing Posum - Went like a rocket last start! Going for this because of her overall mile rate she ran last start in 2.00.2 over the 2100 at Bankstown, home in 58 is flying at that track! The winner who sat on her back out came and won again on Tuesday and they smashed the rest of the field. Now there's one big but here, she must and i repeat must lead, doesnt lead then go have a beer and drown your sorrows! Something you might interesting Brooklyn, remember that race i showed you with all the horses who came out and won the next start or went close... she was in that race and Alfeido also came out and ran a game second last Friday to add to the list. Best form race iv'e ever seen.Ran near last, no gate speed out, then around to the death.... great drive di..head, she only ever runs good when she leads!

Here is a replay of the race (remember the winner came out and won again and it got the cheap sit) - www.harness.org.au/video/nsw/BJC18080809.wmv
Here is the replay of Atlantic Mission at it's next start the horse who beat her, notice he beat some fairly good types - www.harness.org.au/video/nsw/MEC26080808.wmv

Gloucester Park

Race 6 - Korlim Garry ... Led from the stand then got into a speed war in front with Morganator going brutal speed, had to hand up, ran fifth beaten 4m in a 2.01.1 mile rate, 58.8 half which is absolutely flying from the stand! That was a hot field, this is miles easier. To put the lead time into perspective, they went 67.1 from the stand, the FFA pacers on the same card from the mobile went the lead time in 70.1 and only ran .6 of a second faster for the overall mile rate! That shows you what an amazing horse Morganator is and for Korlim Garry to stick to his guns behind him was a great job!Ran worse then midfield, stand starts are about who leads, 90% of stands in W.A are won by the horses in the first 2 spots, was over at the start but i did miss the winner. Skimmed the form to fast, didn't pay attention to what Kingsford had been running. Sat near last and finished second in a 28.4 final split, followed up beaten 20m in a flying mile rate and last half of 57.0.... that should have been favourite.... In any case, i think the stand start races in W.A are very shifty, some of these drivers deliberately sit back then when they feel like it they'll fire it out next start. No integrity.

Race 8 - Mister Hannible ... Tough horse, really tough horse. Sat 3 wide for a large portion of the race when finishing hard first up and narrowly missing. Followed that up with another 3 wide all the way performance which was brilliant as the leaders rocketed out in 27.4 for an overall mile rate of 1.56.9. Sick horse going places!Shocking run, ran near last doing no work, ran the mile rate last start but the last half was crap, pointless backing horses who cant run a fast last split who don't lead.

Race 9 - High Chapparel ... Leaders went beserk last start going far to fast, did well to hold second considering the speed they went 1.57.9 overall mile rate. He easily acounted for the rest of the field. Big show from the pole.Led and won easily

Bunbury

Race 2 Anachroism ... Will absolutely brain them on his last run. Pretty much faces the same field. Only issue is i don't know if the tab is covering the first 2 races. Sat 3 wide and went down a lip in a 1.59 mile rate.Sat last, 3 wide around to the death, 28.4 off the back and still won, this is a good horse.

Race 5 ... Lord Matao ... Led, rated 1.59.4, home in 57.7, 28.8. Drawn wide, will push forward, looks extremely hard to beat.Not fired out of the gate, sat back, leader rocketed home in 57 something, no chance with the drive, finished well back. On the plus side, the winner Kiss me What is a very, very good leader who beat Anachonism at her previous start.

Race 7 ... Sea Gale ... Led, rated 1.57.1, tiring late beaten 6m into fourth. Went to fast last start, an easier time in front should see her win. This is also a significant drop in class.Couldnt lead, sat in the running line, pulled out early into the death, went down a lip in a 28.9 final split by the second fave who sat 3 wide the last lap... gay!

Mooney Valley

Race 3 - Decorated Jasper ... All these Jasper horses are good, anyone noticed? Anyway rocketed home last start beaten a lip in a 1.56.8, 57.1, 27.8 final split, mmmmm.Sat last, rushed over the top in a fast mile rate, blinding last half and won, hes a superstar.

As for the chariots of Fire....

Ebony Gem - On a slow track, led rated 1.56.9, home in 56.6, 27.7.... No way will they beat this unless its taken on in front.Led all the way in a super mile rate, fast last half, hes a superstar leader thats for sure.

Best bets

Mister Hannible
Decorated Jasper

9 selections
4 winners
1 second

What i learned from the above is. Don't select horses who are leaders if they have other leaders underneath them. Don't bet in standing starts unless something has been winning or been getting beaten in brilliant halves and even then is it worth it? Trot races are different... Don't select horses who run on unless they can run a super half compared to the rest of the field.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Definately see your point Seth but the horse has improved immensely at each run. Will be an interesting start to the race, if he does get crossed by Keyang Hanover, then i hope he pulls off the fence.

These selections below are for curiosity sake. Been studying the times hard, so this is a test, noone should follow these or put money on them! Not taking credit win or lose cos i may be way off, still learning here!

Redcliffe tonight

Race 1 - Miller third, carted up the 2 favourites leading the 3 wide line, hit the front but was then swamped, a victim of circumstances. Left out Lively Highlander because he had a month off as i hate horses after a letup/spell but on his previous run he wins this easy. I think this teaches me unless a horse has a long spell, just go the last run. Was never going to lose.
Race 2 - Disco Superfly won sprint laning
Race 3 - Flying Chev third, every chance, just beaten
Race 4 - Invincible Barnes led and won
Race 5 - Ultimate Time led and won
Race 6 - Shallow Tempest sat in the death and ran third
Race 7 - Melton Lumber Mac fourth, was held up, never really saw daylight
Race 8 - Faloshea led and won

Harold Park - rest of the meeting

Race 2 - Village Warrior/Abercrombie Dexter (cant line up the victorian, so i put best of each state) Village Warrior led and won/ Abercrombie Dexter fourth
Race 3 - Merrywood Prince second beaten a head
Race 4 - Make me Smile/Tip Your Hat (Make Me Smile should be long odds on, so i included Tip Your Hat as i had him running home in around 27.7 last start) Make me Smile led and won/Tip Your Hat leads the 3 wide line and drops out, great drive luke!
Race 5 - Melpark Major (Should win on times if Ebony Gem cant lead) Seth talked me into this, i was happy with Ebony Gem but then he worried me into tipping this who ran third from the death
Race 6 - Pacific Black led and won, was a sick win to, ran really fast in front
Race 7 - We Dare To Dream/Rip'n Burn We Dare to Dream fourth, moral beaten, refer to brooklyns post/ Rip n Burn woful, shoot it.
Race 8 - The Upper Crust - (Not worrying about the last quarter, he attacked the whole way, looks the best of good things) Sat miles back, only took off at the 400m and got beaten around 6m into third. Stupid drive as the horse has good stamina but was driven as a sit sprinter.

18 selections
7 winners
1 second
5 thirds
3 fourths

Consistancy was better tonight. Even though this test went well, the more and more i'm leaning towards horses who are times specials. Leaders, NOT maybe leaders, almost definate leaders (big difference) who run good time should be profitable as well.

Only 4 horses tonight who qualified on times that i saw

Lively Highlander
Kingsford
Faloshea
Anacronism

As for the leaders

Make Me Smile
Pacific Black
Ebony Gem
Kiss Me What
High Chapparel


These should have been the only selections tonight. I'll keep working on it. Might tip the card tomorrow night at Albion Park just to keep me entertained then from here on out, i really should stick to what i said above.

 

[sethlad]

Perfect reminder as to why I only bet in one state.
Tracks.drivers,times,gate speed....too many unknowns for me.

All credit to the winner,we all have different opinions,thats why they let you bet on them I guess.

seth

 

[carltonblue]

I was wrong, good for the soul!

Ebony Gem cant get near Changeover and Gotta Go Cullen. Our aussie 4yos are in trouble!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Watched the run of Cool and Casual. Very unlucky but the quarters were not strong but then again they are 2 year olds! I liked the run of Lady Lexus, gee shes a tough horse, flying last half of 55.9, really fought it out, never gave in! Reverse the barriers with Kept for Pleasure and she wins!

Albion Park - Last time i'm tipping the card. Previous weeks i have gone shocking on these saturday night cards. Albion Park is the hardest card of the week without question. So without saying, noone should put money on these!

Race 1 - Il Tenore ... (Reason being, Rapid Crusader will lead (well he should hold out Simon B Anvil, if he doesnt the drivers a cheat!) but i havent seen him reel off a final quarter faster then around 28.6 closing sectional which SHOULD see I'l Tenore go very close from the trail with a cheap run. Looking back through his career, hes stuck on in very fast last halves against far better horses when he gets a cosy run. On his last run, was fired out into the death, 28.2 first split, stuck on beaten 4m in a closing 28.6 split. Much better run tonight. Hes not a good thing, he needs to get that run)
Race 2 - Good Boy Disel ... (sat in the death in a slow mile rate, blistering last half of 56.7, 27.9 beaten a head, then again sat in the death in a 2.00.8 mile rate, 57.3, 28.6 again beaten a head, clearly the one to beat as Maid Easy and Ex are Six should be spotting him a tidy start)
Race 3 - Jack and Simon/Jaylock Vinny ... (JAS led, got his own way, rated 2.00.9, 57.1, 27.8... now where these horses position will play a big role... I have it as The Market Minor leading then handing up to Torbello, which should see Jack and Simon trail through and take a good spot, not the death i hope, he doesnt like working.... Jaylock Vinny was a real eyecatcher last start, sat back and rattled home in a 56.7, 27.9 half which means he must have ran something like a 27.3 last quarter but the draw and distance is realllllly against him. I refuse to go Torbello because hes first up, if he leads and rattled home in 57, so be it and The Market Minor should get the best run his times are not as good as the other 2)
Race 4 - By the Left ... (I don't like this race, these claimers are f'n hard at Albion Park. Redcourt and The Twister were the 2 best runs last week. However if Riversdale is driven like he normally is, he will spear out and lead then hopefully hand up to By the Left and that effectively puts By the Left as a 50/50 chance to win... Of course, Disco Lemonade might spear across like a rocket then throw the race wide open for a swooper like Falcons Legacy)
Race 5 - Top Shelf Hanover/Turing ... (TSH stuck 3 back the fence, got out late, flew, just missed in a 57.3 half, 28.3 ... Bad draw for him as he will have to go back ... The leaders will have to come home in around 28.8 for him to be able to make up the ground which is kind of unlikely. Turing sat on the speed last start first up in QLD beaten 4m in a 28.1 final split, looks the likely winner on that)
Race 6 - All Our Lad ... (Very tough run last start, caught 3 wide, into the death, beaten 1m in a 1.56.8 58.5, 28.6 mile rate. Has 3 walkers underneath him, should lead tonight. Very confident he can win.)
Race 7 - Good Catch/Darkwing ... (Good Catch sat last, pulled out off the track and was charging home beaten 4m in a 2.00.8 mile rate, 57.1, 27.8 final split. He must of reeled off a 27.2 split, wow! As for Darkwing, was given no chance last start, idiot drive. Sat last in the 3 wide train, leader home in 28.4, he made some ground beaten 6m. If she finds the front, shes a big chance.
Race 8 - Heza Wonder ... (Led, walked them, rated 1.59.4, 57.2, 27.4 beaten a head. Hes a brilliant beginner so he will lead. Only worry is, if Woodlea Glenn OR Benny Mac get the spot behind him as they both finish hard with the cheap sit.)
Race 9 - Elzar ... (Goodaz Promised will lead, Elzar will have to ease back to last or death seat which makes Goodaz Promised nearly a good thing. Okay maybe not, just noticed Hanky Panky is a leader and drawn underneath it. Okay Elzar it is then!)
R10 - Hal Thomas ... Lot of speed on the front row, The Mirage loves a mile in front, but shes got 2 quick horses underneath her in Tafetta Black and Evening Class. So Hal Thomas is definately looking a good bet here on his last run. Sat miles back, swept home in a 28.4 final split beaten a head. As long as The Mirage doesnt lead, he will zoom over the top 100%, will not lose. Zane Patrick was a good run last start, blowout chance

Best bets - These 3 i'm quite confident can turn a profit.
Good Catch
Hal Thomas
All Our Lad

 

[brooklynbute]

Great tipping Danger Mouse, 5 thirds lol, unlucky, great consistency though, very nice, ill be following you at albion park tonight.
Ill put selections in for Geelong later on.

 

[brooklynbute]

Geelong

On the back of a fairly successful night at Moonee Valley, I'll be loading up onto these selections at Geelong.

Race 2 - Franco Newsman (Would have gone close to winning the breeders crown final if the horse in front of it didn't have a heart arrhythmia and didn't lose the driver after he finally got clear, weak field and this horse can do it tough out 3 wide with no cover)

Race 4 - Ohoka Georgia (Will trail the odds on favorite and has a good turn of speed when held up and he should be sprint laneing home to victory at good odds)

Race 5 - Ip Game Of Chance (A good little David Murphy sit-sprinter who loves this track and should be hitting peak form, a great chance at good odds)

Race 6 - Christian Melody (Should gain a nice trail behind the favorite Gilt Bromac, although Christian Melody doesn't have a lot of gate speed she should have enough to hold the prime position and sprint lane home again, is a talented horse)

Race 7 - Count De Lira (is a good horse and can do it tough if he doesn't lead here, close to a good thing, others need a lot of luck from there draws)

Good Luck

 

[brooklynbute]

Geelong

On the back of a fairly successful night at Moonee Valley, I'll be loading up onto these selections at Geelong.

Race 2 - Franco Newsman (Would have gone close to winning the breeders crown final if the horse in front of it didn't have a heart arrhythmia and didn't lose the driver after he finally got clear, weak field and this horse can do it tough out 3 wide with no cover) (1st - Did all the hards and went for home very early, was a good tough win)

Race 4 - Ohoka Georgia (Will trail the odds on favorite and has a good turn of speed when held up and he should be sprint laneing home to victory at good odds) (1st - Got the trail predicted and never looked like losing, paid very good overs)

Race 5 - Ip Game Of Chance (A good little David Murphy sit-sprinter who loves this track and should be hitting peak form, a great chance at good odds) (5th - Had to sit 3 wide with no cover which is not his go at all, not a lot of luck)

Race 6 - Christian Melody (Should gain a nice trail behind the favorite Gilt Bromac, although Christian Melody doesn't have a lot of gate speed she should have enough to hold the prime position and sprint lane home again, is a talented horse) (1st - Couldn't believe the overs of this, backed from 14 into 8 then into 6, never looked like losing and was traveling better then anything in the race, too good)

Race 7 - Count De Lira (is a good horse and can do it tough if he doesn't lead here, close to a good thing, others need a lot of luck from there draws) (Failed to finish)

4 selections
3 winners

For 50 dollars all up on the winners got me up to 1500 before i bummed out on Count De Lira who broke gear, 2 very bad hard luck stories over 2 nights but thats the game we play.

I don't no if i should count Count De Lira as a selection as it didn't finish the race. Got some very good dividends which happend to be a very good an easy night of punting, gotta love the sprint lane.



Well done to danger mouse and jaylock vinney..although the drive helped you enormusly, the dividend was great!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Watched the run of Cool and Casual. Very unlucky but the quarters were not strong but then again they are 2 year olds! I liked the run of Lady Lexus, gee shes a tough horse, flying last half of 55.9, really fought it out, never gave in! Reverse the barriers with Kept for Pleasure and she wins!

Albion Park - Last time i'm tipping the card. Previous weeks i have gone shocking on these saturday night cards. Albion Park is the hardest card of the week without question. So without saying, noone should put money on these!

Race 1 - Il Tenore ... (Reason being, Rapid Crusader will lead (well he should hold out Simon B Anvil, if he doesnt the drivers a cheat!) but i havent seen him reel off a final quarter faster then around 28.6 closing sectional which SHOULD see I'l Tenore go very close from the trail with a cheap run. Looking back through his career, hes stuck on in very fast last halves against far better horses when he gets a cosy run. On his last run, was fired out into the death, 28.2 first split, stuck on beaten 4m in a closing 28.6 split. Much better run tonight. Hes not a good thing, he needs to get that run) unplaced, finished midfield garbage result. Rapid Crusader not hunted out, Simon B Anvil went far to quickly in front, took the sting out of everything on the pace including Il Tenore. The rubbish swoopers came over the top.
Race 2 - Good Boy Disel ... (sat in the death in a slow mile rate, blistering last half of 56.7, 27.9 beaten a head, then again sat in the death in a 2.00.8 mile rate, 57.3, 28.6 again beaten a head, clearly the one to beat as Maid Easy and Ex are Six should be spotting him a tidy start) second, again went to quickly in front, got bloused by Maid Easy. Ex Are Six third... Trifecta in one!
Race 3 - Jack and Simon/Jaylock Vinny ... (JAS led, got his own way, rated 2.00.9, 57.1, 27.8... now where these horses position will play a big role... I have it as The Market Minor leading then handing up to Torbello, which should see Jack and Simon trail through and take a good spot, not the death i hope, he doesnt like working.... Jaylock Vinny was a real eyecatcher last start, sat back and rattled home in a 56.7, 27.9 half which means he must have ran something like a 27.3 last quarter but the draw and distance is realllllly against him. I refuse to go Torbello because hes first up, if he leads and rattled home in 57, so be it and The Market Minor should get the best run his times are not as good as the other 2) Jack and Simon 4th and Jaylock Vinny coutesy of a great drive sprint lane and won. Torbello second, The Market Minor third. First four in one!
Race 4 - By the Left ... (I don't like this race, these claimers are f'n hard at Albion Park. Redcourt and The Twister were the 2 best runs last week. However if Riversdale is driven like he normally is, he will spear out and lead then hopefully hand up to By the Left and that effectively puts By the Left as a 50/50 chance to win... Of course, Disco Lemonade might spear across like a rocket then throw the race wide open for a swooper like Falcons Legacy) Unplaced, midfield, couldnt lead, worked hard in the death. Redcourt won, i said his run was the best last week, top win, led in a brutal lead time and still finished it off.
Race 5 - Top Shelf Hanover/Turing ... (TSH stuck 3 back the fence, got out late, flew, just missed in a 57.3 half, 28.3 ... Bad draw for him as he will have to go back ... The leaders will have to come home in around 28.8 for him to be able to make up the ground which is kind of unlikely. Turing sat on the speed last start first up in QLD beaten 4m in a 28.1 final split, looks the likely winner on that) Top Shelf Hanover unplaced midfield, average run, shows he cant work at all, needs to be driven cold. Turing led and won.
Race 6 - All Our Lad ... (Very tough run last start, caught 3 wide, into the death, beaten 1m in a 1.56.8 58.5, 28.6 mile rate. Has 3 walkers underneath him, should lead tonight. Very confident he can win.) Led and won, bolted in.
Race 7 - Good Catch/Darkwing ... (Good Catch sat last, pulled out off the track and was charging home beaten 4m in a 2.00.8 mile rate, 57.1, 27.8 final split. He must of reeled off a 27.2 split, wow! As for Darkwing, was given no chance last start, idiot drive. Sat last in the 3 wide train, leader home in 28.4, he made some ground beaten 6m. If she finds the front, shes a big chance. Really annoying race. Darkwing just ambled into the death, why doesnt this idiot driver ever drive her correctly? On top of it, the leader rolls off and lets Prince Humperding through, a very good leader who did no work. Darkwing runs a close second. Unreal.... As for Good Catch, she leads the 3 wide line up, lol, another idiotic drive. This horse can only run for about 300m, needs ti be driven freezing cold but she can unwind like a superstar. Finished unplaced, midfield.
Race 8 - Heza Wonder ... (Led, walked them, rated 1.59.4, 57.2, 27.4 beaten a head. Hes a brilliant beginner so he will lead. Only worry is, if Woodlea Glenn OR Benny Mac get the spot behind him as they both finish hard with the cheap sit.) Second, led, Benny Mac got his back, nutted him right near the line. Xile made sure he worked just enough in front to get overun.
Race 9 - Elzar ... (Goodaz Promised will lead, Elzar will have to ease back to last or death seat which makes Goodaz Promised nearly a good thing. Okay maybe not, just noticed Hanky Panky is a leader and drawn underneath it. Okay Elzar it is then!) Can't be the same horse. Ran near last, never passed a horse. On previous form, storms over this rubbish and wins easily. I hope they stand the horse down because that was a pathetic effort and ran miles below its best. Feel sorry for the people who backed it.
R10 - Hal Thomas ... Lot of speed on the front row, The Mirage loves a mile in front, but shes got 2 quick horses underneath her in Tafetta Black and Evening Class. So Hal Thomas is definately looking a good bet here on his last run. Sat miles back, swept home in a 28.4 final split beaten a head. As long as The Mirage doesnt lead, he will zoom over the top 100%, will not lose. Zane Patrick was a good run last start, blowout chance Third, beaten in a 3 way photo finish, had every chance, really dissapointed he didnt get home, thought he would win this for sure, sigh.

Best bets - These 3 i'm quite confident can turn a profit.
Good Catch
Hal Thomas
All Our Lad

13 selections
3 winners
3 seconds
1 third
1 fourth

Jaylock Vinny paid 18.00
Turing Paid 4.80
All our Lad paid 1.60

So it wasn't all bad even though i'm extremely dissapointed in some of the runs and drives tonight.

The only selections tonight were if i was going to do it how i plan to would have been...

On times

Jaylock Vinny - I did point out his blinding last quarter, so this isn't aftertiming, i really expected him to be charging home...
Hal Thomas
Good Catch

Leader

All Our Lad

Which would have been a lovely result. Still a winning night, not impressed though overall. So now i'll just pick and choose races with the standouts. This is why you can't play every race. Must be choosy to win long term. Also there are no best bets. Nothings a good thing, this is horse racing, to many factors which can get any horse beat, no matter how good it is. Just got to follow my plan and hopefully that equates to winning long term.

Nice shout Brooklyn with Christian Melody, paid lovely!

 

[Jasper29]

Yeah g'day fellas,

Im only new to this forum, but I see most of you are fair battling in the tipping department.


I specialize in WA Harness and will give my thoughts on each meeting, other than outer country meetings in the West, starting monday at Pinjarra.

A couple of interesting triallers today at Pinjarra and Byford respectively.

Nice FFA horse No Blue Manna at Pinjarra and a seven year old son of Cams Card Shark and almost $600 k earner- Spirit Of A Shark. Now being trained by Ross Oliveri. He has been a solid trainer over a long time with Saab being his best horse. He trained the 2008 WA Derby winner Argent Treasure and also trains handy type, Formulaone.

 

[Danger Mouse]

I'm a big fan of Spirit of a Shark. He rated a 1.53.9 mile rate at Albion Park not long ago. He absolutely must lead in his races and likes to roll along. Gloucester Park will suit him perfectly. Expect some amazing mile rates from him when he hits peak form!

 

[stressless]

Geelong

On the back of a fairly successful night at Moonee Valley, I'll be loading up onto these selections at Geelong.

Race 2 - Franco Newsman (Would have gone close to winning the breeders crown final if the horse in front of it didn't have a heart arrhythmia and didn't lose the driver after he finally got clear, weak field and this horse can do it tough out 3 wide with no cover) (1st - Did all the hards and went for home very early, was a good tough win)

Race 4 - Ohoka Georgia (Will trail the odds on favorite and has a good turn of speed when held up and he should be sprint laneing home to victory at good odds) (1st - Got the trail predicted and never looked like losing, paid very good overs)

Race 5 - Ip Game Of Chance (A good little David Murphy sit-sprinter who loves this track and should be hitting peak form, a great chance at good odds) (5th - Had to sit 3 wide with no cover which is not his go at all, not a lot of luck)

Race 6 - Christian Melody (Should gain a nice trail behind the favorite Gilt Bromac, although Christian Melody doesn't have a lot of gate speed she should have enough to hold the prime position and sprint lane home again, is a talented horse) (1st - Couldn't believe the overs of this, backed from 14 into 8 then into 6, never looked like losing and was traveling better then anything in the race, too good)

Race 7 - Count De Lira (is a good horse and can do it tough if he doesn't lead here, close to a good thing, others need a lot of luck from there draws) (Failed to finish)

4 selections
3 winners

For 50 dollars all up on the winners got me up to 1500 before i bummed out on Count De Lira who broke gear, 2 very bad hard luck stories over 2 nights but thats the game we play.

I don't no if i should count Count De Lira as a selection as it didn't finish the race. Got some very good dividends which happend to be a very good an easy night of punting, gotta love the sprint lane.



Well done to danger mouse and jaylock vinney..although the drive helped you enormusly, the dividend was great!

i am confused