Harness Tips

[brooklynbute]

dont no the trainer of cherokee chief but have to agree with you on that one last two runs have been quiet good and if he puts him in again at 6000 fair chance he might lose him

Yeah, theres periods there where his horses just fly and race above their normal form...but u r right in saying his claiming price is pretty lol im surprised he hasnt been claimed yet hes not a bad horse when hes going.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Canberra - One selection tonight

Race 4 - Ace Hare

 

[Danger Mouse]

Canberra - One selection tonight

Race 4 - Ace Hare - Second, followed the leader, got out, charged at the leader, missed by a half head in 29.0 so hes ran around a 28.7 final section. So unlucky ...

So many races i'm going down by centimetres on horses at nice odds. My luck has to change soon i hope!

 

[brooklynbute]

Like always still testing, do NOT put money on these! Going on times + barrier

lay = I think it can't win and it will be in the market (betfair)

Menangle

Race 3 - Sea Of Roses (win) Bella Angela (lay)
Race 6 - Black Fighter (win) Bucks in the Bank (lay)
Race 7 - Bee Jay Gem (win) Monorama (lay) Mercurio (lay)

Very very good day of tipping DM....it shoulda been 3 though i have no idea how Bee Jay Gem lost...that thing just came from the clouds.

 

[Embers]

These arnt tips. Just what im gonna do for the day.

Race 1 - Miss Saab
Race 2 - Tramore - Place
Race 3 - Bucks Luck
Race 4 - Jackmandoo
Race 5 - Blush Justice
Race 6 - Damon Ross
Race 7 - Tricky Vic
Race 8 - Bergerac

Haha 1 3rd out of 7 races. Thats why I never go to races. All the talk at the track was about Scan Air in race 4 and every one was hammering it big (surprise it still ended up paying 8.90). I mean every single person there was on this horse so i joined the party which saved me a little. Still down 100 bucks

 

[Cupper]

any tips for today guys ??

 

[Danger Mouse]

Albion Park

Race 1 - Shez Allrighty (win)
Race 2 - Treasure Ball Zee (win) Atoms Exit (lay)
Race 3 - Heza Wonder (win) Trifecta in order (1-3-8) Say Again (lay)
Race 4 - Polar Flight (win) Lightning Cove (lay)
Race 5 - Cheers Robbie (win)
Race 6 - Aussie Patch (win) Courageous Cam (lay)
Race 7 - Depend On Davey (win) AMysteriousEagle (lay)
Race 8 - Miller (win)
Race 9 - Mirfak Prince (win)

Do not put money on them, if the wins lose or the lays win, it's not my fault!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Couple of horses going around in race 7 Albion Park who might go around cricket score odds who are blowout chances to win and big chances to fill a place.

Race 7 - Our Hell Boy / Khans Tiger ... Both ran around 28 last start and both should get a cushy run on the fence behind Double Chef. Of course this is assuming they stay on the pegs where they belong!

Maybe box up 1,3,8 and 9 and hope for the best? Of course if that happens, the favourite way will then be guanteed cos i know how unlucky i run, prolly end up 9-3-1 and pay 6 bucks!

Edit: Our Hell Boy is short in early markets so meh, Khans Tiger looks like he'll start massive odds though!

 

[The Kernel]

Would just like to start by saying that I have been following this thread for a while and really enjoy reading everyone's contributions, tips and opinions on the races. Keep up the good work, gents.

DM, just looking at your tips today I just have a question about Race 6. I can't see how you have come up with Aussie Patch as your tip here. Looks outclassed here by just about every other runner, something like Perfect Pegasus was almost beating I Am Sam after sitting in the death last prep and won 1st up last prep also.

Aussie Patch's only good run lately was sprint laning from barrier 1 at big odds. Are you solely tipping it for the value, hoping it can get leader's back again and run a good last quarter?

 

[Danger Mouse]

Aussie Patch went to the line badly held up beaten 11m in a 28.1 split. If he finds a good spot on the pace, i can't see why he can't be there in the finish. Of course it's an open race and most here have some claims.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Godamn i hate standing starts, i got to stay away from them. Leader dominated every time. grr!

 

[The Kernel]

The race you talk of they ran a 2:01.8 mile rate over 1600 with a 64.1 first half at the Gold Coast. Every horse should have been looking for somewhere to fly home in the straight. The horse's fastest ever winning mile rate in 121 starts is 1:59.9. You'd think it would need to improve greatly on that to win this.

I'm not trying to talk it up, I am just a mug punter and really enjoy your summaries, but I'd be amazed if it wins. Then again, anything can happen in racing.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Menangle

Race 4 - Dummossie
Race 5 - Irish Rip
Race 6 - Blue Nevada
Race 7 - Guisallcon
Race 8 - Comical Star - First up so i'm going against myself by default. Perfect draw to follow Denzel Washington and this track should really suit as hes a big finisher on his day. Like all horses first up, can easily run a shocker.

Warnambool gallops - O'Leary has sent 1 runner today to the meeting. Race 6 - Scenic Scene... I know nothing about it, last time he used Hokai all his horses ran nowhere but i'm a fan of him and might be worth a look.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Albion Park

Race 1 - Shez Allrighty (win) Sat back in the field, home in 60.5, unplaced, had no chance from where it positioned. Wasn't a good selection though. I'm Mumbo Jumbo was obvious.
Race 2 - Treasure Ball Zee (win) Atoms Exit (lay) Treasure Ball second, beaten a head / Atoms Exit unplaced
Race 3 - Heza Wonder (win) Trifecta in order (1-3-8) Say Again (lay) Heza Wonder galloped on the final corner when he was going to win, still ran second but was diaqualified, Number 3 Xile won. / Say Again unplaced
Race 4 - Polar Flight (win) Lightning Cove (lay) Polar Flight sat in the death and won / Lightning Cive second
Race 5 - Cheers Robbie (win) Came from the 1-1 and bolted in. Won easily.
Race 6 - Aussie Patch (win) Courageous Cam (lay) Aussie Patch unplaced, they were all hacking up the straight / Courageous Cam unplaced
Race 7 - Depend On Davey (win) AMysteriousEagle (lay) Depend on Davey third, EVERY chance / AMyseriousEagle unplaced
Race 8 - Miller (win) Led and won
Race 9 - Mirfak Prince (win) Unplaced, last, shocking run. Running miles below best.

Race 4 - Dummossie Led, weaked into fourth. This race annoyed me as i was tossing up between this and Googygoodygumdrops and of course the latter flies over the top.
Race 5 - Irish Rip Led, weakened, unplaced, terrible run
Race 6 - Blue Nevada Sat on the fence, pulled out, hit the lead but got swamped into fourth
Race 7 - Guisallcon Trailed the leader, zoomed through and won
Race 8 - Comical Star - First up so i'm going against myself by default. Perfect draw to follow Denzel Washington and this track should really suit as hes a big finisher on his day. Like all horses first up, can easily run a shocker. Sat in the death and won, wasn't expecting that!

Warnambool gallops - O'Leary has sent 1 runner today to the meeting. Race 6 - Scenic Scene... I know nothing about it, last time he used Hokai all his horses ran nowhere but i'm a fan of him and might be worth a look. Ran third after missing the start by 2 or so lengths

Do not put money on them, if the wins lose or the lays win, it's not my fault!

Pretty crap day. Consistancy not good today but still found a few winners. Punters generally moronic today, lining up to back to odds on shots and shorties overall, they never learn. It's like they see a horse with OKAY form who will settle near the lead and they just unload every time. Most of these punters have to be serious donators surely. I don't like leaders in races for 2 reasons thinking about it. 1. Every expert wannabe looking for an easy win backs them and they pay unders, like massive unders (everyone thinks the same, so easy to predict markets) and 2. In many races the leader has to work just to damn hard.

Still have to study today to work out why some horses ran so poorly.

5 lays for 5 losses
15 selections for 5 winners 1 second 2 thirds

Meh, pretty poor...

 

[Rough_Edges]

Geelong tonight

R1 - Paris Rose
R2 - Barneys Eleven
R3 - Laughncry
R4 - Masie Mouse
R5 - Canomodine
R6 - True Verdict
R7 - Hei Houdini (Should be a second favourite behind #1, but it's last 2 runs have been awesome! Just about my best pick)
R8 - Great Saint

 

[Colin D'Cops]

Touch Of Flair still going around..? Remember it last year dominating the harness scene, classy horse.

 

[carltonblue]

went to USA after being beat in Inter by Uncle Petrika. Succesful, ran in heats possibly final of major trotting race in sweden. havent heard too much lately but still think he is running around in the better usa trotting races

 

[Danger Mouse]

So looked over the meetings again today. Definately 3 things to consider,

1. Price - under 3.00 is generally garbage no matter how good the horse is.
2. Barrier - Okay so fine, barriers like won EVERY race today just about.
3. Times - Still mighty important, not as important as price but equal with barriers.

Have to combine the 3 when looking for future winners. Some races today where it was so obvious the punters were going to crunch certain horses in to unbackable odds and incidently they all lost, which i find funny! So really i find punting comes down to combing those 3 points to find the best possible selection. If any one of those is out, then its no bet. Some horses can win from any barrier but you'd need a pretty mighty time advantage to offset the draw.

Anyone ever watched the camera angle of the above shot on big race days in Melbourne. Ever noticed when looking from above good horses don't seem to make that much ground even on avergage horses. Just seems like a slow grind over the top! Well think in harness racing, you got 2 wheels to add to the burden, makes it harder again.

Probably need 1-1.5 seconds minimum advantage on the closing sectional to exclude barrier draws. Not many of those races around!!

Had a look at Supertab at the prices today, i still manageed to finish up +5 units. Can't believe it, thought for sure i was down!

End rant/discussion/talking to myself/repeating myself.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Kalgoolie tonight

Race 2 - Billys Gold

Continued in a bit...

 

[Colin D'Cops]

went to USA after being beat in Inter by Uncle Petrika. Succesful, ran in heats possibly final of major trotting race in sweden. havent heard too much lately but still think he is running around in the better usa trotting races

Thanks for the reply mate.

 

[Danger Mouse]

race 3 - Assert (win) Headhunter (lay) - If Headhunter wins, then i'm giving up tonight

 

[Danger Mouse]

Alright i'm done tonight, excellent drive Woodley, haha, i'll stick to what i know QLD and NSW.

If anyones interested, Headhunter bolted in! lol

Good luck Rough Edges with Geelong tonight!

 

[Clean Heels]

Headhunter was damn impressive aswell...

Anyone know much about a horse called Yucatchim? Its the only
harness horse that ive followed with confidence, I think its the best talent
since Earlier not Later, which, I dont know what happened to either..

 

[Danger Mouse]

Actually i'm back for one more race! Redemption!

Race 5 the Kalgoolie Cup - Morganator

Anyone who follows this sport just has to cheer on Morganator. Its a huge ask from 40m handicap but if any horse can do it, its him. If either Total Defiance or especially Dilinger Whitby find the front, it's going to be a big ask to come over the top but hey don't most of us live for the huge runs this sport provides. He will probably have to put the best run of his career to to knock off the leader here!

Even if he loses, he should give a huge 3 minute buzz!

He shouldn't be under 5.00, hes set a herculian task, noone should forget that!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Okay to hard a task, thought he could get closer but hes not a machine i guess! Gee i sucked badly tonight! Total Defiance won by default!