Harness Tips

[brooklynbute]

Okay to hard a task, thought he could get closer but hes not a machine i guess! Gee i sucked badly tonight! Total Defiance won by default!

Default ur kidding...i loaded up on total defiance and won a stack. default or no default. ill take a good win like that any day...Morgantor cannot be ridden cold...off 40...too big a task

Yucatchim is a very good sit sprinter from Menangatang, he has been dubbed the Menangatang Marvel...he had a minor setback and is set to go to the trails this month and should be back in maybe 4ish weeks

A touch of flair is my all time favorite horse who rated 1.52.9 over 1600 at the meadowlands which is the 2nd fastest trotting mile of all time...he failed in the elitlopp due to a chest infection and has not been at his best since, he should be fine tho and although has been out a while he is being set for the major trotting races so it will be good to see him back at the track.

just for the record...noel shinn is the best front running driver around..his drive on our archangel was awsome...he just sums up his races so well and when in front hes nearly invincible.

 

[Jasper29]

Sorry guys, was too busy with the study today.

Nice work BB. Total Defiance was classes above esp off the front. I was going to get on TD but am still recovering from the average effort on monday, so a pretty weak effort on my behalf. Was a lot shorter than what I thought he would have been.

Spirit of A Shark is in on friday. Drew the back line over the 1730, should be interesting and I might even go to GP to see him. Gets his chance to beat Glencadam- drawn 9 over a mile. Not a very speedy horse so i think he is pretty vunerable.

 

[Danger Mouse]

This post covers this month of QLD harness from where horses positioned at the bell won from. This is going by the stewards report which is not always entirely accurate. What i'm guestimating is, 80% of winners come from the firsst 3 spots.

53 RACES:

Led x17
death x12
Behind the leader x5
Led 3 wide line x4
1-1 x6
1-2 x6
1-3 x2
1-4 x1

So from 53 races this month 29 of them have been won from the leader or outside the leader. A further 15 races have been won from behind the leader, the 1-1 or leading the 3 wide line. Only 8 hoses have come from further back then the first 4 spots.

So percentage wise guesstimate

Leader/death = 56%
Behind/1-1/W1 = 28%
1-2 or further back = 16%

Small sample but its staggering just how dominant on pacers are. Kind of makes the sport a joke in some ways as some horses cannot win from bad gates unless the leaders collapse or the driver shows some balls and circles into the death. Not 1 horse this month has won from 3 back on the fence or trailing the 3 wide line. So i guess i take back yesterday what i said about leaders BUT that still doesnt take away from the fact leaders only win one in three races yet in many of these races some are starting at ******* prices like 1.10 and 1.20 so you would need to win many races just to break even let alone come out in front and the percentages suggest for a leader $3.00 is the minimum price to come out ahead.

Obviously a bigger sample may paint a different picture, then again maybe not!

So i would believe looking at this for prices,

Leader - 3.00
Death - 4.50
Behind the leader - 10.00
Lead the 3 wide line - 14.00
1-1 - 9.00
1-2 - 9.00
1-3 or forther back - 20.00+

Clearly some horses can offset this by having superior ability but it's rare. Also makes the run of Be Good Johnny in the trans tasman the most dominant win by any pacer this year. From last out 3 and 4 wide, reeled off a sub 56 half bolting in. That just doesnt happen.

Might look at the previous month now!

 

[stressless]

Default ur kidding...i loaded up on total defiance and won a stack. default or no default. ill take a good win like that any day...Morgantor cannot be ridden cold...off 40...too big a task

Yucatchim is a very good sit sprinter from Menangatang, he has been dubbed the Menangatang Marvel...he had a minor setback and is set to go to the trails this month and should be back in maybe 4ish weeks

A touch of flair is my all time favorite horse who rated 1.52.9 over 1600 at the meadowlands which is the 2nd fastest trotting mile of all time...he failed in the elitlopp due to a chest infection and has not been at his best since, he should be fine tho and although has been out a while he is being set for the major trotting races so it will be good to see him back at the track.

just for the record...noel shinn is the best front running driver around..his drive on our archangel was awsome...he just sums up his races so well and when in front hes nearly invincible.

brooklyn you do come out with some dribble noel shin the best front running driver your dreaming

 

[Danger Mouse]

QLD harness - Month of August

198 RACES

Led - 63
Behind the leader - 39
3 back the fence - 12
4 back the fence
death - 21
1-1 - 18
1-2 - 11
1-3 - 9
1-4 - 3
1-5
Led 3 wide line - 7
Second 3 wide line - 11
third in three wide line - 4

Summary/guesstimate on percentages

35% of all races won by the leader
20% of all races behind the leader
5% from 3 back
20% from the death and 1-1 positions
10% from 1-2 line and further back
10% from the 3 wide line

4 back the pegs, never wins.

Interesting looking at the races where the they come from behind. Generally you need a very suspect leader and a good draw to capitalise.

75% of all races in August were won by horses either leading, behind the leader, in the death or 1-1. When horses further back won, the leaders were suspect nearly every time. Very few came from well back in good time and nutted the leading brigade.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Redcliffe

Race 1 - Torque Royale
Race 4 - Art of Steel
Race 5 - GirlFromTheBush
Race 6 - Flying Casino
Race 7 - Saint Louie
Race 8 - The Apprentice

 

[The Rat33]

Redcliffe

Race 1 - Torque Royale
Race 4 - Art of Steel
Race 5 - GirlFromTheBush
Race 6 - Flying Casino
Race 7 - Saint Louie
Race 8 - The Apprentice

i dont even have saint louie in my qauddie how come you are confident on that dm?

 

[brooklynbute]

brooklyn you do come out with some dribble noel shin the best front running driver your dreaming

ok dont agree....just beacuse he dosnt have many drives...that what ur basing it on...i have seen him been beaten once when in front in about 6 months...he rates them to perfectly. and the one time he did get run down he ran 2nd and village warrior came off his back...u follow him for a few months and ull come out in front...u wouldnt think brain shelley was one of the best drivers we have...follow him and u see him get horses over the line that never should have won...just because they rarely drive dosnt mean there no good

 

[Danger Mouse]

i dont even have saint louie in my qauddie how come you are confident on that dm?

Just trying something different tonight. If it doesn't go well i'll try something new. I'm only testing different strategies! Maybe you're right and it will run nowhere!

On Noel Shinn... Had the quaddie going into the last leg with him one out for a big four figure return. He led, went 29 every quarter and got nailed right on the line by a 50-1 shot that sat 3 back on the pegs. Rates them well my arse but i still like him.

 

[stressless]

ok dont agree....just beacuse he dosnt have many drives...that what ur basing it on...i have seen him been beaten once when in front in about 6 months...he rates them to perfectly. and the one time he did get run down he ran 2nd and village warrior came off his back...u follow him for a few months and ull come out in front...u wouldnt think brain shelley was one of the best drivers we have...follow him and u see him get horses over the line that never should have won...just because they rarely drive dosnt mean there no good

Mate you have followed him for six monthes and you say he is the best thier is in front well i seen him for twenty years and i will tell you he could not drive a billycart down a hill as for your other fella he would be better of selling hotdogs at the trots ,definately be on a better comission

 

[brooklynbute]

Mate you have followed him for six monthes and you say he is the best thier is in front well i seen him for twenty years and i will tell you he could not drive a billycart down a hill as for your other fella he would be better of selling hotdogs at the trots ,definately be on a better comission

oh really lol...ive been following him for a lot more then 6 months i only said that cos i havnt seen him been beat in front in recent times...ive been following him for a hell of a lot longer....and as for the other bloke u would have to be kidding...if u no a trainer or driver..and ask them about him...the will tell u exactly what i said...i no 2 drivers that think hes the best going around...but hes such a shifty bloke thats y he dosnt drive that much....just follow these drivers for a whole race...

DM lol yeah that sounds like one of his rated front runners...but i bet u he got the fav or 2nd fav beaten a long long way..must not have thought they other thing could win...hes the best at doing his form that bloke

 

[brooklynbute]

By the way....hes the only driver ever in Harness Racing to win every single vicbred final 2YO, 3YO + 4YO. Just a little stat for u.

 

[stressless]

oh really lol...ive been following him for a lot more then 6 months i only said that cos i havnt seen him been beat in front in recent times...ive been following him for a hell of a lot longer....and as for the other bloke u would have to be kidding...if u no a trainer or driver..and ask them about him...the will tell u exactly what i said...i no 2 drivers that think hes the best going around...but hes such a shifty bloke thats y he dosnt drive that much....just follow these drivers for a whole race...

DM lol yeah that sounds like one of his rated front runners...but i bet u he got the fav or 2nd fav beaten a long long way..must not have thought they other thing could win...hes the best at doing his form that bloke

could you explain shifty to me

 

[brooklynbute]

Scratch that...Amy tubbs has done it...but Shinn did it on one horse, tubbs did it on 2. My bad.

Shifty = My dad and him used to train together and went everywhere together, well lets just say, when they went over the S.A they would plunge their horses with everything they had and Brain would pull out some of the most amazing drives to get them over the line, shifty being, they would improve lengths and lengths when the money went on...ive got alot of stories relating to them to, but lets not go into that. See this computer im typing on, he won that, see that tv im watching races on, he won that. but man can he pull out a gem of a drive. and im not talkin through the pocket.

 

[stressless]

Scratch that...Amy tubbs has done it...but Shinn did it on one horse, tubbs did it on 2. My bad.

Shifty = My dad and him used to train together and went everywhere together, well lets just say, when they went over the S.A they would plunge their horses with everything they had and Brain would pull out some of the most amazing drives to get them over the line, shifty being, they would improve lengths and lengths when the money went on...ive got alot of stories relating to them to, but lets not go into that. See this computer im typing on, he won that, see that tv im watching races on, he won that. but man can he pull out a gem of a drive. and im not talkin through the pocket.

well shifty next time i go to redhots you can shout the hotdogs with your winnings

 

[brooklynbute]

yeah i wouldnt shout if a shark bit me when it comes to u

 

[Danger Mouse]

yeah i wouldnt shout if a shark bit me when it comes to u

Some pretty ordinary types in this forum

 

[Danger Mouse]

Redcliffe

Race 1 - Torque Royale fourth, couldnt lead, death seat, hit the front then swamped
Race 4 - Art of Steel unplaced, stuck 3 wide in a 28.5 first split, he ran his race there, got to the death, then found nothing at the end
Race 5 - GirlFromTheBush third, couldnt lead, leader flew, made no difference
Race 6 - Flying Casino led and won
Race 7 - Saint Louie third, followed the leader, couldnt sprint lane fast enough
Race 8 - The Apprentice second, sat in the death in fast time, got nailed on the line by the sprint laner

yawn at tonight! On to tomorrow!

 

[Danger Mouse]

So in keeping with my ever changing strategies. Today brings something completely left field. I used to select a bit like this a ages ago with a lot of success finding niced priced winners. Of course nothings certain and i'm just as likely to find 8 winners as i am to find none! I'm going to do this strategy for a couple of weeks minimum. So even if i have a shocker today i'll let it run it's course. Best thing about this is, if it is successful, i can do any state with little knowledge on each horse and still break even/win... of course it might be a huge failure and i'll be back to the drawing board! Do not put money on these!!

* = standout

Gold Coast

Race 1 - Streets of Fire
Race 2 - Destination Unknown
Race 3 - Vandergrant/Rolling Rock
Race 4 - Maxistar
Race 5 - Destreos*
Race 6 - Flying Chev/Livet Lady
Race 7 - Whisper My Name*
Race 8 - Cairn Eddie Go/Melton Maxwell

 

[Danger Mouse]

Newcastle

Race 1 - Black Velvet Lady
Race 2 - Corroboree Song
Race 3 - Armbro Petrel
Race 4 - Wright Price/Well Fargo Express
Race 5 - Last Blue Jean
Race 6 - Motor Scooter
Race 7 - Black Stature*

 

[J-Train]

Anyone care to chime in on a suggested quaddie for the Ballarat Harness tonight?? I gotta clean out the shed and might as well be listening to something while I'm doing it!

I was thinking 2,7/FIELD/2/7,9 for 50c = $22.

 

[The Rat33]

Anyone care to chime in on a suggested quaddie for the Ballarat Harness tonight?? I gotta clean out the shed and might as well be listening to something while I'm doing it!

I was thinking 2,7/FIELD/2/7,9 for 50c = $22.

heres my qauddie for tongiht
6,2,5/2,5/2/7,9 very confident on genuine star race 6 number 2

 

[Danger Mouse]

* = standout

Gold Coast

Race 1 - Streets of Fire led and won
Race 2 - Destination Unknown sat 1-1, meek fourth
Race 3 - Vandergrant/Rolling Rock Second and third, every chance
Race 4 - Maxistar unplaced, couldnt lead
Race 5 - Destreos* led and won
Race 6 - Flying Chev/Livet Lady Flying Chev stormed over the top to win / Livet Lady unplaced, crap drive
Race 7 - Whisper My Name* Led the 3 wide line and won
Race 8 - Cairn Eddie Go/Melton Maxwell Both unplaced, CEG meek, MM unlucky, copped a severe check tailed out but still beat a few home.

Newcastle

Race 1 - Black Velvet Lady unplaced, meek
Race 2 - Corroboree Song unplaced, meek
Race 3 - Armbro Petrel unplaced, couldnt lead, driver didnt try
Race 4 - Wright Price/Well Fargo Express both unplaced, WP never tried to lead and WGE had to work to hard 3 wide
Race 5 - Last Blue Jean Came from last and won
Race 6 - Motor Scooter Death seat and won
Race 7 - Black Stature* led and won

19 selections
7 winners
1 second
1 third

Winners paid on supertab 2:30 1:30 3:30 2:70 5:90 5:30 1:50 = 22:30

3.2 unit win, not a bad start to a new strategy which definately needs a few tweaks here and there! Stumbled on a few selections but hey at least i'm tossing in long shots, not going for favourites every race! Biggest error right now is overestimating horses ability to get right position and not paying enough respect to recent poor form on some runners! I'll do Penrith and Ballarat tonight in a bit!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Penrith

Race 1 - Imps Guy

Ballarat

Race 1 - Effective Torque

The rest to be continued

 

[sethlad]

Genuine Star is flying since going to Webster's but this is no gimme IMO
He's also an M1 racing a couple of M3's

Trunk Music (M3) & Few Good Men are above average & both won trials recently & Thats Mister Ali (M3) has been racing Karlsruhe & Walton Shaw

seth