Harness Tips

[The Rat33]

Gloucester Park

Race 2 - Black Washout*

to be continued

Carlton,

Well there you go but that was from the pegs which helped, he did it tonight from the running line. Twelve Paces is a mighty horse going places if that wasn't a one off!

danger i spoke to brooklyn today at school and he told me twelve paces had an amazing turn of speed and dont be suprized if he cam from way back unlucky on just pretend but i quinellad them both and it paid a handy 22 so im a happy chappy

 

[Danger Mouse]

Gloucester Park

Race 3 - UrJokin
Race 4 - Amongst Royalty*
Race 5 - Armantine
Race 6 - Power In Disguise
Race 7 - Just Jasper

 

[stressless]

danger i spoke to brooklyn today at school and he told me twelve paces had an amazing turn of speed and dont be suprized if he cam from way back unlucky on just pretend but i quinellad them both and it paid a handy 22 so im a happy chappy

brooklyn still at school big punter for a schooly i thought he helped out in the hot dog van .

 

[Danger Mouse]

Gloucester Park

Race 8 - Petites Bad Man/The Final Word
Race 9 - Robinson*
Race 10 - Peripherique*

Crap night so far tonight. If anyones losing, i reckon do an ALL UP,Amongst Royalty into Robinson into Peripherique. Iv'e never seen Robinson even look like losing when hes led in QLD. Judging on his last run in W.A hes a near certainty IF he leads. Peripherique looks miles above them in the last. Amongst Royalty has been superb, needs no explanation.

Like anything, nothings certain and use your own judgement.

Rat, well done on the collect!

I like the card tonight at Gloucester Park, confident things can go well.

Something i want to add with Just Jasper. Led in that track record lead split, 34.3. I wonder if Cortopassi will put the afterburners on and go for broke at the start? If he does ease hes handing the race to Roydon Holmes.... anyways...

 

[footballgreat4]

cheeers
tip of the night ruling vc should finally get a win after drawing a good barrier

you beauty did anyone follow

 

[Danger Mouse]

Finally making a comeback! 3 in a row after that rotten start! I hope i don't curse myself now!

Great tip Footballgreat4!

 

[brooklynbute]

brooklyn still at school big punter for a schooly i thought he helped out in the hot dog van .

yeah ill be buying alot more hot dog vans after my win on twelve paces...i dont no how u can say u cant beleive it won...this horse continually comes from near last at every start...it lobs one one and is one of the best horses u have in ur state, just pretend is not...i thought he was a moral only query being first up since may but that did not matter

 

[brooklynbute]

man i wish i put tips in tonight...ive put 7 bets on so far and they have all won...im spewin i didnt put them up...i went out last night so it was a complete cbf job lol.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Dude you talk some sh*t sometimes, not trying to start anything but seriously Just Pretend ran freaking awesome and PAID freaking awesome and you talk like Just Pretend is a nothing.... seriously, that irks me! Yours paid around 3.00 and had to pull out its absolute best and fell in~!

Do you think Just Jasper will try lead Brooklyn?

 

[carltonblue]

must admit DM tipping Just Pretend at $15 is more ballsy then us saying he shouldnt have and that we tipped the 2nd favourite.
didnt get too bad a run for your money either DM!

 

[brooklynbute]

Dude you talk some sh*t sometimes, not trying to start anything but seriously Just Pretend ran freaking awesome and PAID freaking awesome and you talk like Just Pretend is a nothing.... seriously, that irks me! Yours paid around 3.00 and had to pull out its absolute best and fell in~!

Do you think Just Jasper will try lead Brooklyn?

it was first up for 5 months...just pretend will never beat twelve paces...not many horses will be able to beat twelve paces hes all quality 21 wins from 36 starts!!!...i no what ur saying about all the odds and stuff but i dont think TP was at his best...hes going to improve and he didnt quicken off the spot like he usually does he kind of grinded to the line...but we will see what happens i no im right with this one....uit was a good run by JP but they dont pay on run of the race

nah i dont think he will i think capitol v will lead....i hope capital v will lead lol but i had a little saver on JJ

 

[Danger Mouse]

I'd be stunned at the minimum Roydon Holmes doesn't cross Capitol V. You're the master if CV holds the lead!

 

[Danger Mouse]

If anyones around, my lay for the night is Spirit Of A Shark in the next at GP.... hes not leading here, therefor hes not winning. I think he has no chance but again if anyone reads this, make your own judgement!

I think hes a 50-1 shot!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Hey Jasper

Just Jasper >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.. Glencadm .... 3 wide right over the top of them and the first 2 splits were not fast, it was just a sprint home. Glencadm is nothing compared to Just Jasper, completely inferior horse!

Booooooooooooom!!!!!!!!

 

[brooklynbute]

Hey Jasper

Just Jasper >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.. Glencadm .... 3 wide right over the top of them and the first 2 splits were not fast, it was just a sprint home. Glencadm is nothing compared to Just Jasper, completely inferior horse!

Booooooooooooom!!!!!!!!

Heyy we agree on sumthing tonight...i actually ended up, up on the bet although i only had a saver on it.....Hey DM ur the master on times, what do u think JJ ran his last half in??? i think ur answer might be a bit scary....a far superior horse!

captol v out fast, but not fast enuf lol

 

[Danger Mouse]

What was the final split, didn't hear it? I just know he was out 3 and 4 wide in a 28.2 split off the back coming from last and just rounded up those 2 duds in front in a breeze! lol j/k about the dud part!

I think he has scarey ability Brooklyn. You might think i'm getting carried away but i think he could be the best horse in Australia. His turn of speed is unfreakin believable... They should be aiming for miracle miles and the interdom!

His best would match the likes of Safari and Blacks A Fake!

 

[Danger Mouse]

I got another lay if people don't mind laying long shots. Marledo... i'll drop to the floor with heart palpitations if that wins!

 

[brooklynbute]

What was the final split, didn't hear it? I just know he was out 3 and 4 wide in a 28.2 split off the back coming from last and just rounded up those 2 duds in front in a breeze! lol j/k about the dud part!

I think he has scarey ability Brooklyn. You might think i'm getting carried away but i think he could be the best horse in Australia. His turn of speed is unfreakin believable... They should be aiming for miracle miles and the interdom!

His best would match the likes of Safari and Blacks A Fake!

They went home in 57.5....so work that out....look i could pull out what u said before saying u talk shit sumtimes...but i agree with u, i think he can match it with them, when he is sitting behind the leader or racing with a good sit, i think he would need a little luck, but he could be a major boil over prospect come feature racing time, i think a race like the victoria cup would be suitable...this coming from a bloke who said sarrera would be a good thing in the group 1 2000 meter race in sydney(name escapes me, its late and im sick) a month before it was run, so id like to think im a fair judge, plus i won in every race i bet in tonight, im pumped!!!! just have to get spirit of shard over the line and it will be 10/10.

 

[Danger Mouse]

eh, to much information behind the scenes. What did they do, drug Dr Dre, he hasnt run like that for a long time. I have noticed anything Woodley touches improves lengths.... Shifty i tell you! (i'm serious too!)

If Robinson leads Brooklyn, you'll be up the creek without a paddle cos you will be well a truely f'd!

Oh and if he leads then hands up to Spirit Of A Shard, then this race is rigged or if Lewis gets away from the stand then doesnt try lead. (serious about this to)

 

[Danger Mouse]

so fixed, posting this 3 laps out, this race was over before it began. Nice collect Brooklyn. This race is rigged, i know it.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Don't bet on Peripherique. This fave has had huge support all day and its form doesnt warrant it compared to P.... I'm expecting another boat race. Straight to the front, left alone, just sprint 200m or better yet it can reel off a 57 half then in 6 months it'll struggle to break 31 for closing split! ... while Peripherique is eased back to last? Sounds about right to me! I can just feel it!

Still include it as a loss in my wrapup. Good luck in the last to anyone whos playing!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Wagga

Race 1 - The Guantanamogrey - unplaced, bungled the start
Race 2 - Boab Babe second, every chance
Race 3 - Skeeterville* won, death seat, did it extremely tough, good horse!
Race 4 - Imfeera Bloke* won, absolutely bolted in, gun!
Race 5 - Franco Namesake won, sat last, over the top
Race 6 - Itsa Beauty won from death seat
Race 7 - Specklefoot unplaced, shocking run

Kilmore

Race 1 - Rhys Lightning unplaced, broke twice
Race 2 - Post Ten Again second, winner to good
Race 3 - Pinevale Patricia third, quick last split, just missed, winner was a great run!
Race 4 - Becada Star third, sat last, charged home late
Race 5 - Double Justice third, was last on the corner and held up, flew when all over
Race 6 - Lucky Eclipse won, led, to good
Race 7 - Ultimate Mark won, led to good
Race 8 - Just CallMe Cullen won, sat last, flew over the top

Harold Park

Race 1 - Our Max won, 3 wide over the top
Race 2 - Governor Art unplaced, got into a speed war with Lance then dropped out
Race 3 - Just Pretend second, ran a blinder, got beaten by a superstar
Race 4 - Too Bad/Swipt Stepper TB second, every chance, SS unplaced, was a bad selection
Race 5 - Weona Babe/Anniewinalot WB unplaced, led, got taken on, collpsed late / A sat back, driver never tried
Race 6 - Abercrombie Dexter* third, every chance
Race 7 - Bye Rate won, sat behind leader, got out then flew
Race 8 - Sophistix second, sat just off them, came home well late

Gold Coast

Race 1 - Miss Bulle 4th, every chance, should of left this race alone, 1st, 2nd and 4th all have the same ability. I picked one of them and chose wrong.
Race 2 - Tomanbil Road unplaced, led the 3 wide line then broke for no reason
Race 3 - Paris Highlights fourth, every chance
Race 4 - SerenesJoy unplaced, terrible effort, should have won with the run, must have broke down cos that cannot be the same horse.
Race 5 - Flaming Banjo won, swept over them
Race 6 - Iwi Fawkes won, swept over them
Race 7 - Winsomerama unplaced, crap run, couldnt handle the good tempo
Race 8 - Scarecrow unplaced, crap run, couldnt handle the tempo, my original selection Ned Next won to rub salt in the wound.

Gloucester Park

Race 2 - Black Washout* second, every chance
Race 3 - UrJokin unplaced, no chance in the sprint home out wide
Race 4 - Amongst Royalty* won, led, bolted in
Race 5 - Armantine unplaced, never saw daylight behind the leader
Race 6 - Power In Disguise second, every chance
Race 7 - Just Jasper won, swept over them in a fast last half, sick win
Race 8 - Petites Bad Man/The Final Word PBM unplaced, horrible drive. TFW unplaced, 4th, worked to hard
Race 9 - Robinson* unplaced, fixed race, call the cops!
Race 10 - Peripherique* unplaced, fixed race, call the cops!

43 selections
13 winners
7 seconds
4 thirds

Winners paid 3.90 4.80 1.60 5.10 2.50 5.20 2.70 1.20 4.40 1.70 5.00 2.30 6.20 = 46.60 for a slight win overall



Will never select for W.A again. I think the racing over there is fixed. Am i an uneducated mug for saying that? Probably so but iv'e seen enough over there recently to make me say f that. Woodley, Lewis, Hall, Cortopassi i have repeatedly seen pull horses deliberately then fire them out when they feel it. There is a race a year or so ago with Franco the Man, i'll never forget it. This horse was speared around to lead and won a heap of races in a row or something close. Anyway he strikes this crud race with crud leaders. They go like 33 second splits the whole way, went like 32 for the third quarter, Cortopassi never moved a muscle till it was impossible to run down the leaders from where he was, flew for third. Stewards do nothing, noone says anything. This happens non stop with most of the top drivers over there.

Then don't get me started on horses improving 40 lengths out of nowhere, race like gods for 6 months, then drop off and race like ****ters for the next 2 years then become godly again!

W.A S.A TAS are a joke when it comes to harness racing. Victoria to lesser degree isn't far behind. Only states worth looking at is NSW and QLD.

Still do Victoria for the time being, but if i see some of the same crap i see in W.A to often then i'll never pay it any attention ever again.

Multiple selections in a race. I just don't learn do i? Every time those races kill me! Better to just ignore them completely!

Bad luck at Wagga today Carlton, you didn't get the breaks but still found a couple of winners!

Last thing i want to say tonight, i did the form very quickly at each meeting. Didn't go over the form or speed map any race, just followed a rough formula i'm working on so there can only be improvements if i want to work a bit harder. One thing thats killing me a bit is not paying attention to the overall mile rate in some cases, some horses are sitting on slow speeds finishing hard but they do diddly squat when the tempo is strong. So many little things to consider it hurts my brain!

good night all!

 

[Danger Mouse]

I watched that interview with Bartholomew (that huge punter Seth wrapped up) and i remember him saying he wins 20% on turnover if my memory serves me correctly. So for every 10 units outlay, he expects to win 12 back or in laymans terms for every 1000 outlayed, he gets 1200 back long term.

So this got me thinking about yesterday and the races i could have avoided,

So i had 43 selections for a 3.2 unit win which equates to a 7% win roughly.

The races i could have avoided and why,

Wagga race 1 - TheGuantonomogrey - Mile rate win wasn't fast previous start
Kilmore race 3 - Pinevale Patricia - Sat in the death to win in her previous run in easy time, was harder race.
Harold Park race 4 - Swift Stepper - Not up to fast mile rate, not as good as Too Bad and spotting leaders to much start
Harold Park race 5 - Anniewinalot - Only wins when circles for the lead which was unlikely over the short trip
Harold Park race 8 - Sophistix - he ran second but it was an iffy selection, needed a really good run in transit. Was 50/50 but as it turned out, he ran better then expected and beat the odds on shot home just.
Gold Coast race 1 - Miss Bulle - Same ability as 2 other runners who drew perfectly as well.
Race 3 - Paris Highlights - Where do i start? Was going to start short, was first up and had Mountain Rainbow to contend with who was going to sprint lane with the same turn of speed.
Races 7 and 8 - Scarecrow and Winsomerama - Knew the tempo of each race was going to be against them, was always going to be difficult, both races to avoid.
Gloucester Park race 8 - Was a tossup this race, should of avoided, putting in 2 selections then watching something improve out of sight, hurt further!
Gloucester Park race 10 - Perepherique is a non winner even though form was good.

So overall i could have saved 12 units if i was being serious and not doing every race as an experiment.

31 unit outlay for 46.2 return would have been a mighty night and if Just Pretend held on, could have been nearly a 100% return!

I'll get todays selections in shortly with more study. Try not rush the form as fast. I know i always say this but if people don't like these blog type posts, just tell me and i won't put them up cos i don't want to clutter the thread if noone cares.

 

[Danger Mouse]

* = standout
** = super standout!

Albion Park

Race 1 - Jaylock Vinny*
Race 2 - The Market Minor
Race 4 - Bonnie Wee Laddie
Race 5 - Ex Are Six
Race 6 - White Eye Markei*
Race 7 - Rising Stature**
Race 8 - George Sloy*
Race 9 - Count Charmez



Will fall over backwards and need paramedics if Rising Stature doesn't win tonight. Good god that looks the best of good things if ever i saw one. Best bet since i have been doing this on bigfooty.

Shaun Gillespe is an interesting trainer. He uses different drivers for different horses till he finds the right one for that perticular horse then sticks with him/her. Can't think of any other trainer who does that. Smart!

Race 1 - What they do at the start will play a huge role. If Redcourt leads unchallenged then Zane Patrick and Nickys Falcon should be zooming home along the pegs late while Jaylock Vinny will have to come wide from the tail to win and he can do it but he'll need to trail up second in the 3 wide line and be within 12m of the leader on the bend. Now if Jaylock Vinny crosses and leads hes a strong chance to win and if he spears out and leads, then hands up to sprint lane hes a dead set certainty as long as the first quarter isn't brutal. Hopefully these drivers are talking pre race and let Jaylock Vinny over then Redcourt can take over then get crushed at the end when Jaylock Vinny mows him down like a bullet! Worst scenario is he tries to cross, cant and they go to fast early and that would be bad!

Race 2 - Difficult race as i don't know what the Village Driller will do. If he leads then i'm screwed on The Market Minor as Lively Highlander will almost certainly sprint lane and win. If Spider Morgan however crosses Village Driller, i reckon i'm in this race in a big way at big odds!

Race 3 - Be very wary of Our Lexus Lad coming around and maybe taking the lead. If that happens, he will win. Hes really hit form. Last weeks run was enourmous. Sat 3 wide the entire trip in fast time and just missed. Previous start reeled off a 27 second split from last and just missed. In fact f*** i'll toss in a multi selection, hes just to damn good to not include. Abercrombie Morgon who i cant line up properly in the other main player as is my selection Top Shelf Hanover. I probably should avoid this race thinking about it.... Even something like Darkwing who trails out Top Shelf Hanover could push for the lead and she can reel of a sick closing sectional if she gets her own way and can run home strongly from the death if they don't go quick. Okay you know what, i'm going for the bolter, Darkwing it is!! Oh and Visiions of Clancy might push for the lead as well. Or Abercrombie Morgon might hold the lead. What a tough race to work out! Okay i'm leaving this race alone, no selection. If the speeds on, horses like Beckoning and Prince Humperding, maybe even Comeonjan could be charging late. F*** this race!! Trifecta punters should clean up!

Race 4 - Turing leads obviously, every man and his dog will be on him and will start long odds on. Bonnie Wee Laddies times are quite similar and he will trail. Hes going to be better value, in fact overs, big overs and if he runs up to previous form will go extremely close.

 

[stressless]

I watched that interview with Bartholomew (that huge punter Seth wrapped up) and i remember him saying he wins 20% on turnover if my memory serves me correctly. So for every 10 units outlay, he expects to win 12 back or in laymans terms for every 1000 outlayed, he gets 1200 back long term.

So this got me thinking about yesterday and the races i could have avoided,

So i had 43 selections for a 3.2 unit win which equates to a 7% win roughly.

The races i could have avoided and why,

Wagga race 1 - TheGuantonomogrey - Mile rate win wasn't fast previous start
Kilmore race 3 - Pinevale Patricia - Sat in the death to win in her previous run in easy time, was harder race.
Harold Park race 4 - Swift Stepper - Not up to fast mile rate, not as good as Too Bad and spotting leaders to much start
Harold Park race 5 - Anniewinalot - Only wins when circles for the lead which was unlikely over the short trip
Harold Park race 8 - Sophistix - he ran second but it was an iffy selection, needed a really good run in transit. Was 50/50 but as it turned out, he ran better then expected and beat the odds on shot home just.
Gold Coast race 1 - Miss Bulle - Same ability as 2 other runners who drew perfectly as well.
Race 3 - Paris Highlights - Where do i start? Was going to start short, was first up and had Mountain Rainbow to contend with who was going to sprint lane with the same turn of speed.
Races 7 and 8 - Scarecrow and Winsomerama - Knew the tempo of each race was going to be against them, was always going to be difficult, both races to avoid.
Gloucester Park race 8 - Was a tossup this race, should of avoided, putting in 2 selections then watching something improve out of sight, hurt further!
Gloucester Park race 10 - Perepherique is a non winner even though form was good.

So overall i could have saved 12 units if i was being serious and not doing every race as an experiment.

31 unit outlay for 46.2 return would have been a mighty night and if Just Pretend held on, could have been nearly a 100% return!

I'll get todays selections in shortly with more study. Try not rush the form as fast. I know i always say this but if people don't like these blog type posts, just tell me and i won't put them up cos i don't want to clutter the thread if noone cares.

you put a lot of time and effort into a very good read keep up the good work