Harness Tips

[sethlad]

I watched that interview with Bartholomew (that huge punter Seth wrapped up) and i remember him saying he wins 20% on turnover if my memory serves me correctly.

Actually dont know much about him except that he's a survivor in the game.
Was an interesting i/v although I doubt he said 20%....not many achieving that over any stretch of time

seth

 

[brooklynbute]

so fixed, posting this 3 laps out, this race was over before it began. Nice collect Brooklyn. This race is rigged, i know it.

lol robinson did gallop out lol and spirit of shard flew away...just a victim of circumstances...i thought if robinson led and spirit of shard could sit on its bak and still win but yeah, he won anyway....good post before that made for sum interesting reading...as well as the one where u figured out where most horses win from in brisbane..that must of taken alot of time to do and it is very helpful....just find a leader lol!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Newcastle

Race 1 - Tashas Boy
Race 2 - Karloo Mick*
Race 3 - Last Blue Jean
Race 4 - It's Stammer
Race 5 - Slick Bromac
Race 6 - Sammy Greensox
Race 7 - Edds Wild Cash
Race 8 -

Very dissapointed if Special Albert doesn't lead, Make Me Smile death seats and Karloo Mick roars over the top of them! It's going to happen, i can feel it!

Bruce Birch does it again. Hes another Morgan Woodley, whatever he touches improves 40 lengths! Another shifty prick. Look at there runs last week and you tell me how Me and Jim sweeps around them and wins like that. That last quarter/half i reckon was brutal. Perfect drive on JV but can't comment further till i know the sectionals.

Maybe i'll just stop being a sook and just accept there's a lot of shifty people in this sport with no integrity.

Scott Neaves has one drive tonight on Count Charmez in the last at Albion Park and it's not even his horse. Going to be a long trip if hes not here for business! Albion Park selections on the previous page! Don't forget to watch race 2 at Newcastle, small but cracking field of 3 runners plus a spud!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Karloo Mick ran a shocker, sure he wasn't beaten far but boy, thats poor by his best standards! ... won't be on him again!! At least Make Me Smile didn't win!

Special Albert > Make Me Smile

 

[Danger Mouse]

Albion Park

Race 1 - Jaylock Vinny* second, absolutely disgusted with the way Me and Jim improved to win that. Me and Jim went 29.0 and 27.5 leading the 3 wide line home. JV went down 2m leading, taking a sit then coming again. I was absolutely spot on here and was robbed!
Race 2 - The Market Minor 4th, sat in the death, the winner Spider Morgan ran home in 26.9, yes thats right, 26.9. Thats the 3rd fastest split i can remember at this track. Blacks A Fake did something similar a while ago when he came home in 26.6. What can you do? The Market Minor still ran home in around 27.6, shrug.
Race 4 - Bonnie Wee Laddie Unplaced, poor effort, bad selection, cant handle a strong tempo even with a perfect trail.
Race 5 - Ex Are Six won, trailed up 3 wide, put them to the sword in the straight
Race 6 - White Eye Markei* second, nailed right on the line doing all the work from the death seat
Race 7 - Rising Stature** won, sat 1-1, won easy
Race 8 - George Sloy* won, led and bolted in
Race 9 - Count Charmez third, sat in the death in quick time, struck the lead then got overun. Annoys me this race, Ray Cross week after week keeps rating his duds far to fast in front. Was setup for the favourite.

Newcastle

Race 1 - Tashas Boy second, nailed right on the line
Race 2 - Karloo Mick* third, led, didnt find much, got the selection wrong, Special Albert was clearly on top in hindsight.
Race 3 - Last Blue Jean second, winner to good
Race 4 - It's Stammer second, winner to good
Race 5 - Slick Bromac won, sat 1-1 and did his job
Race 6 - Sammy Greensox unplaced, was going to be in the finish when raced roughly, then broke
Race 7 - Edds Wild Cash unplaced, couldnt handle the blitz home

15 selections
4 winners
5 seconds
2 thirds

winners paid 1.50 7.70 2.30 1.70 = 13.2 for a tiny loss

Best runs tonight,

George Sloy went brutal speed early, won in good time, fast last split
Turing went pretty much the same as George Sloy, hes a gun
Spider Morgan led and home in 26.9
Me And Jim, led the 3 wide line and home in 56.5, 27.5

Still making errors.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Gold Coast today - third race and first covered by the TAB is on very early at 11.10

Race 3 - I'm Mumbo Jumbo

Continue rest in a bit

 

[Danger Mouse]

Gold Coast

Race 4 - Jimmy Ultimate*
Race 5 - Buckleup Buster

Jimmy Ultimate should KILL these...

 

[Danger Mouse]

Well that sucks, Thought Jimmy Ultimate would cover those fairly easily. Hard when the leader breaks 31 every quarter and you're off 20m handicap and you have to lead the 3 wide line.

Gold Coast

Race 6 - Wakizashi
Race 7 - Eden Miss
Race 8 - Destreos*
Race 9 - Monty Rules*

 

[Danger Mouse]

There's a horse in the next race at the Gold Coast, might go around 100-1... Dawn Lobell.... If the speeds on, shes a chance to sweep over them if she can get a cart 3 wide home. I always look for the zillion to one shots... needs everything to go perfect though!

 

[Embers]

There's a horse in the next race at the Gold Coast, might go around 100-1... Dawn Lobell.... If the speeds on, shes a chance to sweep over them if she can get a cart 3 wide home. I always look for the zillion to one shots... needs everything to go perfect though!

I had 20 on a horse to place paying 55 to 1. It flipping won , Why didnt you finish 2nd so I could feel good about myself

 

[Danger Mouse]

I had 20 on a horse to place paying 55 to 1. It flipping won , Why didnt you finish 2nd so I could feel good about myself

I did run second Wakizashi at 15.60 the win runs another second.... The amount of seconds i run on big priced horses is making me sad. How many times the horse that knocks me off hasnt one won for 2 or 3 years. F*** me!

By the way. Dawn Lobell wasn't my selection, was just pointing out the possability of a *chance* on a horse at huge odds.

 

[CranktheAnchors]

I'm glad I slept in Danger you have come good in the last couple of races.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Race 3 - I'm Mumbo Jumbo second, made a long sustained run 3 wide in good sectionals and just missed, darn
Race 4 - Jimmy Ultimate* third, another who made a long run 3 wide in good time but well beaten
Race 5 - Buckleup Buster unplaced, went far to fast early then dropped out, was a hard race to identify the winner but the odds on favourite was ugh... can't believe it started so short
Race 6 - Wakizashi second at massive overs, got nailed by something which hadn't won for 2 years and decided today was the day to rocket home
Race 7 - Eden Miss won, sat 1-1 and got there right on the line
Race 8 - Destreos* won, led, bolted in
Race 9 - Monty Rules* won, sat last, trailed up 3 wide, bolted in

7 selections
3 winners
2 seconds
1 third

winners paid 4.60 1.40 1.90 = 7.9 for a tiny win

As i said earlier, all these seconds on nice priced horses are really hurting. Be nice if they could win every now and again.

Will do Echuca and Launceston (yeah why not, only for fun even though i think tassie is a joke) *maybe* depending on the quality of the fields.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Launceston

Race 1 - Weemalanews
Race 2 - The Teflon Man
Race 3 - I Pitty The Fool*
Race 4 - Cool Card
Race 5 - Redside Shrek
Rave 6 - StudleighMilkShake
Rave 7 - Guevereslancealot

Not overly confident here at all, not expecting much and not suprised if no winners. The sport is to shifty in this state.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Echuca

Race 2 - Enotheque
Race 3 - Feel No Pain
Race 4 - The Delirama
Race 5 - 8,9 and 10 are all the same and 6 is hard to rate so meh
Race 6 - Safe Secrets
Race 7 - Branson Blue
Race 8 - Brikante

 

[Danger Mouse]

Thoughts on tonight,

TheDeliRama - Knew i was screwed before the race. Speed underneath it. Was a stupid selection, thought about just erasing the race but eh..

I was going to edit and change to MarcellesBest but eh, who cares...

Just going to be one of those nights, not expecting much. Might not find a winner! lol

What gets me in that race at Launceston. Redside Shrek starts evens when at best theres nothing between MB and him and if anything MB should have been favourite. Interesting observations how punters get things so wrong.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Launceston

Race 1 - Weemalanews 2nd, just missed
Race 2 - The Teflon Man 4th, every chance, close up
Race 3 - I Pitty The Fool* 1st led and won easy
Race 4 - Cool Card 2nd nailed right on the line
Race 5 - Redside Shrek 3rd sat 3 wide throughout but i knew the winner was going to win before the race
Rave 6 - StudleighMilkShake 2nd just missed
Rave 7 - Guevereslancealot unplaced midfield, had to come wide from last

Echuca

Race 2 - Enotheque 2nd just missed
Race 3 - Feel No Pain unplaced was held up behind the great wall of horses
Race 4 - The Delirama unplaced worked to hard early, bad selection, knew it pre race as well
Race 6 - Safe Secrets unplaced bad selection, didn't like the race, knew i was beat pre race
Race 7 - Branson Blue 3rd came around then from last, had his chance
Race 8 - Brikante yet to run but i doubt it will win

13 selections
1 winner
4 seconds
2 thirds

Winner paid 1.40 for a big loss tonight but hey i'm just testing and you can't win them all. I haven't followed Tassie in a long time and i hardly follow Victoria at all.

There were a few races tonight i didn't like but i'm not explaining why as i want to keep my formula to myself but i can say i should have excluded these races because not one horse filled my criteria but i tossed a selection in anyway for interests sake which is pretty stupid.

These were not selections and this isn't because they lost or ran down the track, i seriously knew i was beat pre race.

Echuca

The Delirama, Safe Secrets, Brikante (might still win but eh i wouldn't back it)

Launceston

GuineveresLancelot

Rest were all right. Didn't get any breaks, the seconds just keep rolling in and as mentioned in my earlier post race 5 at Launcestion was an incorrect selection, MarcellesBest was always going to be the one to beat, knew it pre race but it makes me an aftertimer.

Keep learning, keep improving i hope.

 

[brooklynbute]

Gee i thought Brikante was disappointing, i no it was first up for a long time but did win a recent trial. I cant see how u can be Group 3 placed to Captain Kalahari then win a trail and come out and run 5th in a R3-R5...i no there not machines but u would think half fit it would have won that...although altivo and village pop are good horses. Just a thought.

It was good to see a horse i invest so much money in, Sign In Gold to win its 2nd race in 66 starts, now has 23 placings, and it won very easy.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Brikante in my opinion didn't win for 2 reasons. 1. It's better when it leads and 2. Hadnt raced for light years. Why that was backed beats me... i thought it would struggle to run a place Brooklyn but hey you are generally right.

Also just to blog again briefly, Branson Blue wasn't a selection either. Only runs around 30 splits and thats not good enough to reel in a leader. Thats why i left out race 5 at Echuca, cos horses 8.9 and 10 all run around 30 from back in the field and lets face it thats pretty crap.

Going to fire out some selections from all over the place today being more selective on races, maybe even W.A (iv'e calmed down even though i hate the drivers over there sometimes). Got around 13 units i want to get back and it's going to bug me until i do it!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Goulburn

Race 2 - Seadragon
Race 8 - Holy Camp Boy

Yarra Valley

Race 1 - Our Archangel
Race 5 - Maise Mouse

Globe Derby

Race 1 - Elljays Miss

Pinjarra

Race 1 - Kiss Me What
Race 4 - Solid Gold Blue Jean
Race 5 - Bush Justice
Race 6 - Blacknsweet
Race 8 - To The Mountain

 

[Jasper29]

Yeah hey guys.
Apologies- had a major busy weekend, with social, sporting and study commitments.

I am over WA racing big time and losing interest very quickly. Friday night was a joke. Where should I start?
Ruling VC's race. Now the Halls had the top 3 horses in the race. Everyone with any clue or connection knew before the race that the Halls backed Ruling Vc big time. They put the junior driver, Giles Inwood on RVC and tried to mislead people by putting Hall Jnr on another runner. Watch the replay- look how hard Andrews and Hall Jnr tried on the other Hall runners.

Dr Dre- improved 30 lengths and won in 1:55.4. Won by half the length of the straight and Woodley didnt release the hand break. Ran more two seconds faster than the FFA. Look at Dr Dre's form before that. There hasnt been a horse that has ran 55.4 in ages.
In the same race, watch W. Andrews' drive on Jay Bee Aitch. The worst drive I have ever seen. Look how hard he was trying. Should have got a minimum of 12 months. I will be putting my house on Jay Bee Aitch next start. You heard it here first.

To a brighter topic- Just Jasper. Went really well, but Victoria Cup? Really. haha

Glencadam- im a big fan of the horse, and I know what he can and cant do. No superstar but as I said before the race, they had their chance to beat him on friday. He is a dour staying type with not a whole lot of high speed- a typical Live Or Die really, the mile was never going to suit him. From barrier 9 he was always going to end up breezing- they couldnt have gone back and then around. So he sits in the breeze and is a sitting duck to something with a bit more speed more suited to the mile- Just Jasper.

I wouldnt be taking too much from the race- it is a FFA in September. There are a lot better horses around and they will start turning up in the middle of October.

The meeting today at Pinjarra is a shocker and I wont be backing anything, its not even worth watching.

There was a horse on Sat night at GP that will go places- Global Glider.
Has a few problems but could be anything.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Ararat

Race 1 - Salochin
Race 4 - First Lady Jane
Race 5 - Tappies Pass

 

[brooklynbute]

Well i wasnt far off anyway....hes coming over for the miracle mile...i dont think glencadam will be...hes not good enuf.

 

[Jasper29]

I dont think you get it.
Did you read my post?

His fastest time is 1:57.5.

He's not as good as Washakie or Mr Yankee.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Goulburn

Race 2 - Seadragon second, winner came of its back
Race 8 - Holy Camp Boy won, led and just got there

Yarra Valley

Race 1 - Our Archangel fourth, sat 1-1, struck the lead then found little
Race 5 - Maise Mouse third, led, got overrun

Globe Derby

Race 1 - Elljays Miss unplaced, poor effort

Pinjarra

Race 1 - Kiss Me What unplaced, didnt try lead, meek
Race 4 - Solid Gold Blue Jean unplaced, dud
Race 5 - Bush Justice fourth, every chance
Race 6 - Blacknsweet won, flew from last, dead heated at 10-1 to cut my price in half, darn
Race 8 - To The Mountain unplaced, average drive and crap selection

Ararat

Race 1 - Salochin third, 3 wide throughout, super run
Race 4 - First Lady Jane unplaced, got shuffled back to last
Race 5 - Tappies Pass won

13 selections
3 winners
1 second
2 thirds

winners paid 4.90 1.40 1.30 = 7.6 for a decent loss again

Still tweaking so might go poor again today but i don't mind, i got to find out what works and what doesn't. Went pretty poor yesterday so that definately didn't work!