Has high scores made you reckless with trading?

DaVe86

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Thread starter #1
It probably has for me. This could be a good lesson for many out there, it is a lesson i have learnt this year.

I am still right in the hunt...sitting only around 500 points off the leader and entrenched in the top 1000.


But...i have felt like I have had to rush my trades to stay in contention. I haven't wanted to fall more than 1000 points off the leaders and leave my run too late. My aim this year is to finish as high overall as possible...as opposed to winning my league.


Some examples:

Skipworth -> Buddy - Buddy has a high b/e and playing WC who is one of his worst teams. But i rushed the trade. Buddy has gone down 50K more since i picked him up.

Hasleby -> Corey - Corey was cheap...Hasleby had a high b/e. BUt i knew Hase plays good in derby's and would do well against carlton. But i rushed to get in Corey.

Houlihan -> Mackie - Didnt want to wear a 0...should've gone down and saved 90K and got Hill...but decided i needed the star player instead.



These trades won't kill me. And they weren't necesarrily terrible decisions at the time. But if i was more patient...thats a good 150+ thousand dollars i would've saved which would've meant 2 trades at the end of the year saved.



Thoughts??? Have you also rushed trades?
 

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LemmingMaster

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#2
To be honest, the only trade I may have questioned slightly was the Hasleby to Corey trade. The rest of those trades at the time had some merit. While they may not have worked out as planned, they still had some merit.

When my ranking was sliding, the temptation to trade was increasing. It has been important that I remember why I selected certain players. The biggest bullet I missed was Hill, he almost got the chop.

Having Kornes in my team and seeing the Superman of DT get injured is a very nice wakeup call. It shows me that even the most durable players still go down.
 

Decipher

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#3
Ive gone the opposite strategy from you.
Will be interesting to see which one pays trumps come year-end.

I have made no rushed trades.

Anthony >> Zaharakis (happy with this considering Anthonys yet to make a debut)
Skipworth > Warren (Needed $$ for below trade, He had made some money and appears no certainty to return to the side. Was also suffering for ToG)
Hille >> Cox (Should have gone with the big Cox from Rnd1 this hurt me, but ive got him now)

I have worn 2 Zeros this week and unfavorably played some rookies when I wish I had other options (Petstinko, Brown, Walker although walker did well this week). I think its clearly hurt me by atleast 3,500 ranking spots early on and even more this week (Maybe 1900 this week). I will trade to stay in the top 5,000 but I dont see myself falling outside of that mark anyway.

From Round 10 I will need some really solid scores to bridge the gap, not sure if I will be able to considering how far I am off the mark currently. Would be interested to see the rankings of some the more renown DTers to compare.
 

phealey

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#4
I don't think they were rushed, I think they were just the wrong trades. Haselby is the perfect 6th mid and should only really be upgraded at the pointy end of the season if he's not hitting 90+ each week. Trading him early defeats the purpose of bringing him in wether he was a cash cow or a budget 6th mid.

Buddy is out of from badly, and Hawthorn are looking way too shaky, he needed to put together a couple of good ones before he's even a consideration this year, so that was just a poor trade.

Trading Houlihan to avoid a zero wasn't the best move either, though if Mackie scored 130 I'm sure you wouldn't be complaining.
 

chadleverington

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#5
Having Kornes in my team and seeing the Superman of DT get injured is a very nice wakeup call. It shows me that even the most durable players still go down.
But in true Kornes style, give him a chance to play this week. Was Sprained shoulder, we have a sunday game. Hope that he comes up. If not i am sure he will only miss a week. As a Deledio owner i kinda hope Kornes misses (even although i have Kornes).
 

DaVe86

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Thread starter #6
Ive gone the opposite strategy from you.
Will be interesting to see which one pays trumps come year-end.

I have made no rushed trades.

Anthony >> Zaharakis (happy with this considering Anthonys yet to make a debut)
Skipworth > Warren (Needed $$ for below trade, He had made some money and appears no certainty to return to the side. Was also suffering for ToG)
Hille >> Cox (Should have gone with the big Cox from Rnd1 this hurt me, but ive got him now)

I have worn 2 Zeros this week and unfavorably played some rookies when I wish I had other options (Petstinko, Brown, Walker although walker did well this week). I think its clearly hurt me by atleast 3,500 ranking spots early on and even more this week (Maybe 1900 this week). I will trade to stay in the top 5,000 but I dont see myself falling outside of that mark anyway.

From Round 10 I will need some really solid scores to bridge the gap, not sure if I will be able to considering how far I am off the mark currently. Would be interested to see the rankings of some the more renown DTers to compare.

Yep, I have not worn any 0's as yet, but have made trades such as outing Houlihan to do that. Considering Mackie only got 40, i now wish i just wore the 0 to be honest.

I am down to 12 trades...but i am inline for a big score this week which could rocket me up considering how many 0's people will cop.

But i do think i could've managed the money i had better and i wish i had only made around 6 trades to this stage. I will most likely use another 2 this week. Really trying to get my team as perfect as possible. Big risk but hopefully big reward.
 

DaVe86

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Thread starter #7
I don't think they were rushed, I think they were just the wrong trades. Haselby is the perfect 6th mid and should only really be upgraded at the pointy end of the season if he's not hitting 90+ each week. Trading him early defeats the purpose of bringing him in wether he was a cash cow or a budget 6th mid.

Buddy is out of from badly, and Hawthorn are looking way too shaky, he needed to put together a couple of good ones before he's even a consideration this year, so that was just a poor trade.

Trading Houlihan to avoid a zero wasn't the best move either, though if Mackie scored 130 I'm sure you wouldn't be complaining.
my long term plan was always Houlihan -> Mackie but i was hoping to do it for no additional expenditure...this cost me 50K. Again an example of a trade i rushed into simply to stay competitive. But i figured that i was going to do the trade eventually, so may as well do it now and not wear a 0.


There is no way i would've done this in previous years, just seems scores are so much higher this year.
 

Ollies

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#9
He said he was down to 12 trades, so he has done another 5 trades to go along with those.
Yeah sorry just read that and deleted my stupid post. I've still got 17 and ranked ~4500. 1980 looking like my score this week. It will be interesting to see what that score does for , or to, my ranking.

I'll be trading fairly vigorously over the next 3 weeks to try to set myself up for some good scores.

ATM the trouble is lack of info. I have Higgins, Houlihan, Mitch Brown in FWDs , Bock Broughton and Petrenkp in backs so there will need to be some careful thought go in. If either Houlihan or Higgins looks like playing I'll probably go Petrenko to Pratt (yes I know a week early ) and Malceski to Birchall as I really want to rid myself of Mr Malceski. Otherwise I'll need to trade in the FWDs to avoid a donut. I hate donuts!! I'd probably go Houlihan to Dowler and Petrenko to Grimes. I can't see Petrenko playing this week. Craig shows little faith in him. Its a bit left field I know but if Grimes/Hill end up 7th and 8th back and Dowler ends up 8th FWD I think I'd be OK for the run home. ANy suggestions?
 
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#10
The Hasleby trade was probably a poor move, but if Corey seriously lifts his game it could still be ok.

From the way people speak on this forum and FanFooty, you'd think the car goes to whoever has the most trades left at the end of the season. I've heard so many "I've got 17 trades left - I'm copping two zeros this week" examples, and not just concerning players who're suddenly out this week. It'll be funny when somebody wins this competition after using 16 trades in the first 12 weeks.
 

Decipher

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#11
The Hasleby trade was probably a poor move, but if Corey seriously lifts his game it could still be ok.

From the way people speak on this forum and FanFooty, you'd think the car goes to whoever has the most trades left at the end of the season. I've heard so many "I've got 17 trades left - I'm copping two zeros this week" examples, and not just concerning players who're suddenly out this week. It'll be funny when somebody wins this competition after using 16 trades in the first 12 weeks.
Last year my downfall in League, rankings and eliminator was trades. Hence my strategy has changed. I spent all bar 2 trades getting a final team. I then had Pav, Didak, Chappy, Shaw, Cornes, Ablett and I know there was more that went down and this cost me my league grand final, my spot in the eliminator and I dropped considerably in overall rank in the closing 3-4 rounds.

Although trades dont win your eliminator you do need enough to cover injuries and make all the downgrades / upgrades when your rookies peak. Considering the rate of injuries so far i'll juggle injuries early and consider pulling the trigger on those later in the season when its closer to crunch time.
 

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Lakey91

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#12
Completely agree dave.

An average of 1900 last year would of had you finish in the respectable position in 3297.

Id hate to think what an average of 1900 would have you placed now!

Large increase in scoring, but i dont think it will stay this way. I still think 25% of those in the top 1000 wont be near the mark come round 22s completetion. Alot of impulse trading - even in the opening few rounds there were numerous posts saying 'i want to trade to maintain my good ranking!', but you just have to remember its a marathon, and we arnt even a third of the way there.
 

phealey

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#13
Trades left is only relative to how complete your team is. The more pertinent question is how many injury trades do you plan of having left after your team is complete. As mentioned a huge chunk of the players ranked inside the top 1000 won't be there at the end when they've run out of trades or money to upgrade.

Trading isn't a difficult science, but clearly even people with the best information available still make poor decisions.
 

Tippaz

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#14
i've been playing DT for about 5yrs now

and from what i've seen, the eventual "Overall Winner" always seems to come-from-behind.
i remember a team named Pearso's Premiers who didn't actually arrive in the no.1 spot until the completion of rd22. (great timing that :thumbsu:)

my approach is always conservative.
i like to saves trades in the first 6-8rds.
i like to squeeze as much as i can out of my original 30man squad.
i like to have my team peaking r18-22.

i tried the blitzkrieg tactic in my 2nd year and thought i was absolutely flying mid-year, but everything just capitulated in the last 7rds. i decided from there-on this was not the way to go.
 

bigburger

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#15
I have 14 trades left and frankly I have absolutely no regrets with my trade. The major thing with upgrading is in my opinion its probably better off to do it earlier rather than later as in the long run you gain more points. e.g.

You trade Otten for Marc Murphy

Otten averages 70 ppm.
Murphy averages 100 ppm.

Assuming they both don't get injured then this is the break down

Trade done in Round 5 = 510 points
Trade done in Round 10 = 360 points
Trade done in Round 15 = 210 points

However obviously there is a lot more to it than this most importantly both players values.

In Round 5 Otten was (I would tell you but ****en DT has ****ed up again)
In Round 10 you'd think he would achieve his ffgenie real price (284k)
In Round 20 he most likely would not have improved on thisor only slightly (Lets say 300k)

So lets say Marc Murphy stays pretty much the same now and maybe gains 30k tops. That means you've only lost out on a small amount yet gained a massive amount of dollars.

In all as long as you pick the right players you should be fine in trading/upgrading early.
 

Rimmer

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#16
The high scores do make you think about it.

In the first 3 weeks I was as high as 5th overall and as players dropped a little form I started to slip. I did many hours of research and was sorely tempted as my position dropped but in the end I held back. Last year (my first year) I chewed out my trades too early. Now I am around 2300 overall but still have trades in hand.

Considering the mounting injuries I will trade at the moment only if I need to, Patrenko, Rich, Tuck, Krakeour and Zeibel will remain in my side or on the bench for now.
 

DaVe86

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Thread starter #17
Despite making trades to ensure i didn't field a 0...i only scored 2040 this round. Granted i had Fraser and Thomas (and Buddy captain) who got injured in the last game...i was on track for 2100.

But now even more so i wish i copped a 0 and saved trades because thsi week ill have to cover Cornes, Fraser and Thomas, and Petrenko may be dropped i reckon.
 

LemmingMaster

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#18
DT is all about a balancing act, that trade you use at the start of the season to miss a zero, could cause you more damage at the end of the season.

Sometimes it is best to trade hard at the start, sometimes your starting team is running smoothly from the start. The main point to remember is, there will come a point when you need to hold back some trades.

Start of this year, I made 5 trades in the first 4 rounds. The last couple of rounds, I've not made any trades. It is all about picking your moments and there is no 100% fool proof trading guide. While many people attempt to follow certain rules, there are always moments when those rules get broken.

I still think it is highly important to have targets for what you want your rookies to earn.

Taylor Walker - +$100,000
Ziebell - $150,000
Petrenko - $70,000...

Then have some targets with regards to spending on upgrades.

Rich + $120,000 -> Premium
Otten + $120,000 -> Premium...

Then once you've done this, determine if your cash cows will be able to fund your planned future upgrades. It is also important to have a rough understand of how many trades it will take to achieve these goals.

These little structures are all checking points when it comes to trading.

Beams -> Coughlan - This trade means that you only made $20,000~ from the downgrade. How does this affect your future trading strategies? Does this force you to trade another cash cow to earn enough cash for your future upgrades?

Anyway, without a rough trading plan, you can be prone to make rash decisions at times. I know this year I was literally minutes away from dumping Hill and Walker and now look at their scores. Then again, this same logic stopped me from dumping Cloke sooner than I should have, win some and lose some.
 

Kid A

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#20
my opinion of trading is like Ian Chappell's opinion of bowling first

If you're not sure about whether to trade, don't trade.
If you're pretty sure about trading, reconsider, and don't trade.
If you're absolutely sure about trading, still don't trade.

I've made 4 trades and despised each of them despite them being decent trades objectively:

Mackay -> Beams
Beams -> Coughlan
Skipworth -> Riewoldt
Hille -> Kreuzer

I think conservatism is generally a good thing as long as you have a good knowledge of DT and a good starting team with no obvious faults.
 

NT.Thunder

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I've gone hard early in SC and currently have been sitting anywhere between 20th - 85th for the last several rounds. IMO i havent wasted trades, some scrutinised me early when i traded Ottens after injury to HMAC, but hey hindsight proved the sceptics wrong. I hope you all still have him.

Need to go with your gut alot of the time. In hindsight theres always a right and wrong answer and always someone there to say told you so.

But Anyway SC i'm planning on taking the best option when they prevail, and if that means using trades early then so be it, as long as it is of benefit to the team and not costly to the cause. I've said to myself that i'll trade when the options are there and when i get to 6-7 trades, just stop. Whether thats round 12 or rnd 20 i dont know. Trying to play SC and DT a little different.

DT i'm just slaving away doing min trades and waiting, floating between 1200 and 3000 week in week out. It's a little boring actually but we'll see what happens. I like going hard early and hoping injuries dont creep in.

Anyway, frees up alot of time if you have no trades by mid season:thumbsu:
 
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#22
@ Tarquin

The Beams-Coughlan trade actually would have only made someone $3700. I actually did Robinson-Coughlan. It'll be interesting to see if I made the right choice because I was always going to do one.

Another potential sin though also is ending the year with trades in the bank so don't be too conservative.
 

premiers06

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#23
i have 13 trades left but now im gonna sit back for a couple of weeks because i feel my team is really solid and can consist of good scores.

i have made 4 trades in the last two weeks to get rid of what i think is dead wood in my team (kerr) and enabled myself some cash for upgrade oppurtunities.

as people have said before i think its good to pick your times to trade, i wanted this 5-7 reigon to solidify my team and now im thinking the 9-11 is when rookies peak and will b the time to start upgrading and making my team really strong for a big second half of the season.

also with the amount of injuries have people considered saving more trades for LTI's?
 

Saint KFC

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#24
Another potential sin though also is ending the year with trades in the bank so don't be too conservative.
What you will find though is that people run out of trades far earlier than they run out of cash.

5 trades for me thus far (in chronological order)

Rnd 4: OUT Anthony IN Zaharakis
Rnd 6: OUT T. Tuck IN Hartlett
Rnd 6: OUT Skipworth IN Franklin
Rnd 7: OUT Robinson IN de Boer
Rnd 7: OUT Houlihan IN Mackie

Don't regret any personally.

Tuck has stagnated as I expected him to - unlucky on Hartlett, although he should be back this week and I am planning on keeping him for the rest of the year anyway (along with de Boer).

Brought in Franklin over Pavlich which, in hindsigh, was the wrong decision.

Never chose Houlihan as a keeper anyway, and was not expecting a 40-something from Mackie - was rather expecting him to break his BE and therefore never have as small a price differential between him and Houlihan again. That backfired, but it would have cost me another zero - and I've copped a heap thus far this season (2 last week thanks to Didak/Brown/Higgins/Lucas, 3 before that (Scotland/Raines/Broughton and Simmonds/Browne/Jacobs)

All in all, I'd say that I've been pretty frugal in my trading - held off on trading Scotland and Simmonds when they were dishing up zeros, and in hindsight wasting a trade would have been the wrong decision. Right now, I have these players to come back from injury/omission:

Raines, Broughton, Hartlett, Beams, Lucas, Didak, Higgins, Brown

Ranked around 12,000 (after peaking at 31st in Round 2) so I've really taken a beating. Still, not in too bad a position: have avoided undurable players such as Drummond/Chapman etc, although I do have some fresh injury concenrs (Kornes, Swan). I may pull out another double-trade this week: Lucas/Brown down to Sidebottom, Otten up to Corey/Murphy. Have enough cashcows for now anyway:

Raines, Hill, Zaharakis, Beams, Otten, Krak, Lucas, Brown, Walker

with Broughton, Hartlett and de Boer likely being with me for the rest of the season. In fact, I don't have too many more upgrades to do:

Goddard, Lockyer, Cornes, Scotland, Mackie, Adcock
, Raines (Hill, Broughton)

Kornes, Swan, Gibbs
, Otten, Beams, Zaha (Hartlett, de Boer)

Cox, Simmonds
(Browne, Jacobs)

Deledio, Didak, Franklin, Gia, Higgins
, Krak, Lucas (Walker, Brown)

16 keepers, with 3 of my starting non-keepers being midpricers and the other 3 being rookies. Hopefully I can get that up to 17 keepers this week, but we'll have to wait and see.

All in all, I don't think that I've been reckless at all - rather I've been as stingy as I've ever been and although it has costed me in the short term, I'm hoping that it will reap rewards in the long term.
 

kangaroo19

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#25
I probably have burnt too many trades alreadoy. Only got 12 trades left, but I do have 18 keepers, so only 4 upgrades needed.

From the start of the season, my potential keepers have certainly looked good and now definite keepers: Adcock, Gilbert, HMac and Higgins are now all keepers IMO. Now I will just need to upgrade Ziebell, Warren/Brown, Rich, Beams/Picken.
 
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