Has preseason form stood up?

[The_Steadier]

So given the importance of picking 'breakout' players (and solid performing premos who earn their pricetag), I'm thinking it could be worth checking back throughout the year on how players have been doing relative to their preseason form.

Of course there is lots of variables with preseason scores, but with the trend now for most clubs to be taking full round 1 teams into the last round or two of the NAB challenge... i think the data could be quite solid.

let's find out shall we?

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pre_season_supercoach

Given we've only seen 1 round of the real stuff, it's not fair to judge too much on a sample size of one game; but thus far I think it's fair to say...

At this stage, these guys get a tick in terms of delivering on preseason promise:
Dangermouse
Hall
Parker
Mitchell
Z Smith
Johannisen
Kerridge
wells
menadue
hewett

At this stage, these guys get a cross (fools gold):
J Riewoldt
McKenzie
Robinson
Barlow
J Mcgovern




I think if we can do a decent analysis during the year, we should be able to better spot 'breakout' from 'fools gold' next year.


Naturally these lists will change once we get more data in (ie more games played)... but free to add your players you think clearly belong in any category.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Every year it's unpredictable.
Way to early for this thread IMO.

 

[stevebbb]

this thread is like 6 rounds too early
preseason form often continues in to round 1 (no facts to back this up)

 

[Obese Arachnid]

this thread is like 6 rounds too early
preseason form often continues in to round 1 (no facts to back this up)

I can confirm this as I too have no facts to back this up.

 

[Keg on legs]

It's ok steady, my Mrs tells me I go too early all the time. Don't feel bad brother

 

[The_Steadier]

It's ok to go early if you warn everybody first.

 

[The_Steadier]

Is there preseason scores from 2015 or previous years anywhere?

It would be interesting to cross reference the high preseason 'value' scores (score to price ratio) with players who increase the most in price.
Players that have both high preaseason value scores and high price increases are obviously the 'breakout' players we're looking for.

It would be interesting to try and pick reliable trends across the years in these statistically confirmed breakout players.
Eg-
do they all tend to be a particular age or games experience?
do players who swap teams really usually 'breakout'?
Etc.

 

[Jiska]

Use these threads - God knows we have enough active threads without duplicates

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/supercoach-2016-vents-regrets-thread.1126670/unread
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/supercoach-2016-nailed-it.1126851/unread