Has the era of the era ended?

Tiger2709

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#76
Innovation is now King. Adapt or die. I think the Tiges have fallen victim of a style thats shelf life has expired.

Though I think Eagles look excellent currently and why not they be able to win another flag this or next year?
I think thats why we brought in Lynch, to move towards the big marking forwards of the Eaglles, unfortunately losing our other top players means we may not see if that was a smart move or not for a while but thats football.

Its obvious that the Eagles kick and mark game overcomes Richmond and Collingwoods pressure game, you cant bring the pressure if a team keeps marking the ball.

We dont need the AFL to keep making rule changes the game sorts itself out naturally.
 

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Tiger2709

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#77
Who to say a team isn’t starting a dynasty this year or if WCE will continue to be successful

Far too early to be writing off any team just because the Tigers failed to have a dynasty.
Lol what a contradictory post, you say it's too early to write off any team, then immediately write off Richmond.

According to Geelong 3 in 5 is a Dynasty, so were still well within the window to acheive that, as are the Eagles and even the Dogs, if as you say you're not writing off any team:rolleyes:

What is it with Geelong's need to mention Richmond in every post?
 
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#79
The AFL has long sought equalisation in the sense that any team can plausibly beat any other team on the day.

An English Premier League set up where only four or five teams can realistically win the comp, and money differences mean some teams are hugely stronger than others, is its worst nightmare.

We're seeing this come to pass in the home and away more and more every year, and the last three premiers all being different indicates that is playing through to September as well.

Crucially though, the Bulldogs dropped off after their 2016 flag, Richmond didn't go back to back and don't appear to a realistic premiership threat this year and the Eagles don't seem unbeatable this year.

Was the Hawthorn threepeat the last of the great eras?

Have all the changes the AFL brought in, especially free agency, meant that the days of one team being noticeably stronger than the others, or one team having an extended run of genuine premiership contention (North's seven prelims in a row in the 90s/00) gone for good?

And is that a good thing?

If you are talking about the era's as in before the AFL then yes, I believe the domination of 1 of 2 clubs over decades from Victoria is over.

However, the system where in the AFL era teams are able to go on a run or 2 or 3 Grand Finals is certainly still there and may well happen again this year so you should've waited till the end of the season to really push this.

Just like after Brisbane in 01, 02, 03 what we have experienced at the moment is just a rebound of different teams winning after Hawthorn had finally fallen. Now however we have West Cost looking at not only back to back but also 5 Grand Finals since 1990.

The AFL likes to bang on about how equal it is but if you look at the actual stats Hawthorn, Geelong, West Coast and Sydney have won 11 of the Grand Finals since 2005 and been in 12 Grand finals with only Collingwood, Richmond and the Bulldogs being the only different winners. That doesn't sound like the end of era's to me.
 

Carringbush2010

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#80
A lot of people getting carried away with the Eagles. I'm not certain they will go back-to-back. They are a very good side of course, but I certainly don't think they will be feared by their opposition, particularly outside of WA. The premiership race is well and truly open and up for grabs again this year.
They were 11-0 when Kennedy & Darling played together or something similarly ridiculous. I imagine like most years the injury list plays an important part in determining who challenges. We're already seen Richmond's horror injury list having a massive impact.
Yeah they will certainly be thereabouts and are every chance but they are certainly not feared or invincible. I imagine a VIC team will be quite confident playing them in the big dance if it pans out that way. But as you say, the health of your list plays a massive part.
What's interesting with this little conversation and the thread as a whole is that wc play a transition game that is personnel reliant, if we consider 2018 - when JK and JD weren't there it had an effect. I'll admit wc carried through with a lot of injuries, the luxuries of depth though.

................... At the other end of the spectrum Coll had an injury every week and a lot of them in game yet managed 15 wins because their system was so difficult to defeat. What were no name player the season previous were "good" honest players able to execute roles in 2018 - with depth to boot.

Richmond this year is interesting as it seems they're trying to fill holes (especially fwd and back), this does not allow their role players to play their roles like last year. Lack of depth and to my surprise personnel reliant considering the 2018 version was a pressure system.
 

iameviljez

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#81
The overall evenness of this year's competition is due in part to a general compression of team ages. Even the "rebuilding" Gold Coast, at 24.03, is barely younger than Collingwood's 2010 premiership team (24.16).
I reckon that average age is a bit of a furphy, though - as rebuilding sides will field old veterans and kids, while primed sides in the "window" will concentrate heavily on players in their mid-twenties.
 

Dipper

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#82
Over the last 4 years, 12 different teams have played in a prelim, which would suggest that the OP is close to the mark, but the league is more competitive also.

The rebuild cycle has accelerated drastically. Premiership windows can open a lot quicker, and it doesn't feel as though finishing 5th puts you any closer to the flag than finishing 12th.

Overall, free agency has coincided with more aggressive list management practices and less player loyalty, so the longer build of a core playing group that is essential for a dynasty isn't really happening. So whilst the jump can happen much quicker, the fall can too (see the Doggies) if things turn pear-shaped.

It doesn't necessarily mean that eras are over, but it's becoming harder to sustain success, and clubs aren't really prioritising long-term thinking.



1/19 (flags from 5-8) so far, the Dogs are still a massive outlier.



That stat is fairly irrelevant, Collingwood in 2010 was 20 years since the previous flag, West Coast in 2006 was 12 years, 7 years for Essendon 2000 and Sydney 2012. So it's not as though fairly isolated flags weren't happening already.
Irrelevant to what? He said lots of clubs won 1 or 2 flags and I just made the point that actually only one club won 1 flag in almost 50 years. Which is a fact. So lots of clubs didn't win 1 flag, which is part of what he said.

I wasn't really trying to make a point.

But I suppose statistically if you win one you're a very big chance of winning two.

And the ones you mention are outliers. Collingwood and WCE both won flags completely separate from any others thry won, yes.

But Carlton 1987-1995 had players play in both flags, Essendon 1993-2000 the same and also Sydney 2005-2012...I'm not trying to make a point in that regard but only one team has won only 1 flag in 50 years.
Which is just a point in itself.

And then of all the other multiple flag winners only 2 have had no overlap of players.

Every other flag winner has won multiples with some overlap of players. It's just how it is. Usually with the same basic list.

Over 50 years, it does suggest that if you win one you're more likely than not to win another.

I'm not projecting opinion.

But it's not a small timeframe in the history of this competition.

On SM-J330G using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

JeanLucGoddard

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Thread starter #83
The footy department salary cap combined with teams losing opportunities to get a huge advantage should even the comp and stop teams having a massive talent advantage. If you look at the teams that dominated the comp between 2005-2015 they were a long way ahead of a lot of sides in certain areas.

Geelong had the father son system, plus were well ahead of the comp with recruiting and their coaching department - mostly the assistants.
These variables like the rules on father/soon changing can't be discounted.

Had it stayed at 50 games, North would have got Josh Kelly and Angus and Andrew Brayshaw. That's an entire high quality midfield right there and probably enough to help sustain an era (three top two picks for free).
 
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Ron The Bear

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#84
I reckon that average age is a bit of a furphy, though - as rebuilding sides will field old veterans and kids, while primed sides in the "window" will concentrate heavily on players in their mid-twenties.
Yeah, it's a single figure representing an entire team, so there will be differences in balance within teams of similar average. Suffice to say that, on average, there's a very consistent linear relationship between average age and % of wins.

Last week:

Adelaide 26.29
Geelong 26.06 W by 24 (-0.23)

Melbourne 24.77
Essendon 25.30 W by 18 (+0.53)

Carlton 24.79
Sydney 24.88 W by 19 (+0.09)

GWS 25.67 W by 49 (+1.31)
Richmond 24.36

Brisbane 25.14 W by 17 (-0.05)
Port Adelaide 25.18

Collingwood 26.24
West Coast 26.27 W by 22 (+0.04)

Western Bulldogs 24.29
Gold Coast 24.02 W by 5 (-0.26)

Hawthorn 25.73 W by 16 (-0.10)
North Melbourne 25.84

Fremantle 24.85 W by 5 (+0.29)
St.Kilda 24.55


This was by far the most closely-matched 9-game round on average age, and the fourth-closest on average margin (of 140 rounds).

Not saying it's the be-all and end-all, but a factor.
 

iameviljez

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#85
Yeah, it's a single figure representing an entire team, so there will be differences in balance within teams of similar average. Suffice to say that, on average, there's a very consistent linear relationship between average age and % of wins.
That's interesting (and cheers for the legwork).

I reckon the stat that might be even more telling would be % of players between 23 and 29.
 

Ron The Bear

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#86
I reckon the stat that might be even more telling would be % of players between 23 and 29.
Similar trend, although it's not as smooth and there's a wild anomaly at +8 players.

Adv

W

L

D

Win %

+1

1841

1710

43

51.82

+2

1725

1413

34

54.92

+3

1371

1078

22

55.93

+4

1010

736

20

57.76

+5

695

477

13

59.20

+6

422

242

5

63.45

+7

267

124

4

68.10

+8

104

65

2

61.40

+9

70

25

1

73.44

+10

30

10

0

75.00

+11

8

2

0

80.00

+12

6

1

0

85.71

+13

1

0

0

100.00

+14

1

0

0

100.00

Totals

7551

5883

144

56.14

 

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magpienato

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#87
Hawthorn only had the success they had because of the expansion, as did Brisbane to some extent. We will see another dynasty form I am sure but they wont have more than 2 in a row, which makes me happy because it means no one will get near to our record :)
 

oak79

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#88
I don't get this thread - B2B or B2B2B is super hard and uncommon. Richmond got pretty close last year.

It's been this way since 1990 - since the 'AFL' era. There's only been 3 teams go B2B or B2B2B. Equalisation works, but there will still be a team every so often that backs up.
 

Goggin Our Best

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#89
The footy department salary cap combined with teams losing opportunities to get a huge advantage should even the comp and stop teams having a massive talent advantage. If you look at the teams that dominated the comp between 2005-2015 they were a long way ahead of a lot of sides in certain areas.

Geelong had the father son system, plus were well ahead of the comp with recruiting and their coaching department - mostly the assistants.

Hawthorn worked the priority pick system, hired a great coach, made some really smart decisions in fitness and then were miles ahead of the comp (and might still be a fair way ahead) in terms of recruiting senior players to fill the gaps of their core talent.

Sydney had the cola, landed the biggest free agent ever and had a big lead on a lot of teams in terms of culture.

Collingwood took a big leap ahead of everyone with facilities and also had a great recruiting team.

So the teams at the top had a solid margin on a lot of other sides and there were so many bad sides during that time as well. Richmond were hopeless for a long time. Melbourne and Carlton both had a couple of goes at ineptitude. Dogs and Saints fell right off quickly. Brisbane no good. Essendon.... Eagles took a while to rebuild. Add in the Suns and Giants just starting up. All of that meant the number of contenders for the flag as well as the number of tough games in any week were pretty low.

In their dynasty I'd like to know what percentage of games the Hawks could get by with resting players, moving guys through different positions, shuffling youngsters in and out to give them a taste etc etc.

Especially as the season goes on there will be plenty of bad teams and easy wins this year but I think the number of contenders and tougher games is much higher. 12 teams won 12 games last year, that's an indication there's plenty of depth and less easy outs. With greater equality across the comp it makes sense the gap between the contending teams and the solid sides starts to shrink.
There is a thing called luck to mate

StKilda could have quite easily gone back to back - then everyone would be talking about the great culture at Moorabbin - their assistant coaches - they would forensically analyse everything the Saints did - and they would be copied

Look at last years GF - re the Sheed goal ( and im not for 1 second saying it should have been a shepherding free ) but the umpire could have paid it . The ruck free kick to Lycett ( and subsequent goal to Vardy ) when Pies were 2 goals up and full of momentum - id say there was certainly a touch of luck in that

I just think especially when it is a very tight finish - i think the winners get far too much credit and the losers get bagged ridiculously

Never going to happen in AFL - but the EPL is the fairer system of finding the champion team for the season - 38 games - 19 at home 19 away - you dont fluke a title
 

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#90
No, not at this point of the games evolution just yet. We may be on the cusp or in the middle of one currently which we can't actually quantify until down the road.

West Coast are still improving which is kind of scary when you think about some of their set backs with player unavailability.

They've taken on their biggest weaknesses head on and steadily ticked them off (and will continue to do so), ie ground size differential for the big dance interstate and a strong system to counter pressure sides, all while being able to mirror a pressure game offensively which is why they are not too bothered with anomaly loses to fringe teams like Essendon (poor mans corridor rebounding team) or a GWS home game (tsunami wave running lol) etc etc because these styles ultimately dont fair well at the pointy end where it matters.

To them it's all about having the right team and game plan at the right time (nothing new really) but IMO has set a new benchmark in team balance in the current era and modern game by surgicly cutting through sides with less possessions, voiding swarming and giving them more functional players while the opposition in affect are losing them dedicating them to the contest. It's quite brilliant really and it's gaining more value as we see sides like the Pies actually falling away further as WC perfect it.

Simpson has turned out to be way smarter than many give him credit for, coming up with strategy to effectivly shut down the in vouge styles of forward pressure teams with strong midfields and I think we are smack bang in the middle of an era of said eras...
 

Coaster2012

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#91
If you are talking about the era's as in before the AFL then yes, I believe the domination of 1 of 2 clubs over decades from Victoria is over.

However, the system where in the AFL era teams are able to go on a run or 2 or 3 Grand Finals is certainly still there and may well happen again this year so you should've waited till the end of the season to really push this.

Just like after Brisbane in 01, 02, 03 what we have experienced at the moment is just a rebound of different teams winning after Hawthorn had finally fallen. Now however we have West Cost looking at not only back to back but also 5 Grand Finals since 1990.

The AFL likes to bang on about how equal it is but if you look at the actual stats Hawthorn, Geelong, West Coast and Sydney have won 11 of the Grand Finals since 2005 and been in 12 Grand finals with only Collingwood, Richmond and the Bulldogs being the only different winners. That doesn't sound like the end of era's to me.
6 grand finals.
 

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#95
No, not at this point of the games evolution just yet. We may be on the cusp or in the middle of one currently which we can't actually quantify until down the road.

West Coast are still improving which is kind of scary when you think about some of their set backs with player unavailability.

They've taken on their biggest weaknesses head on and steadily ticked them off (and will continue to do so), ie ground size differential for the big dance interstate and a strong system to counter pressure sides, all while being able to mirror a pressure game offensively which is why they are not too bothered with anomaly loses to fringe teams like Essendon (poor mans corridor rebounding team) or a GWS home game (tsunami wave running lol) etc etc because these styles ultimately dont fair well at the pointy end where it matters.

To them it's all about having the right team and game plan at the right time (nothing new really) but IMO has set a new benchmark in team balance in the current era and modern game by surgicly cutting through sides with less possessions, voiding swarming and giving them more functional players while the opposition in affect are losing them dedicating them to the contest. It's quite brilliant really and it's gaining more value as we see sides like the Pies actually falling away further as WC perfect it.

Simpson has turned out to be way smarter than many give him credit for, coming up with strategy to effectivly shut down the in vouge styles of forward pressure teams with strong midfields and I think we are smack bang in the middle of an era of said eras...
When did WC last lose to GWS?
 

Do the Dew

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#96
The biggest catalyst for the Bulldogs flag was the bye after the H/A season, they even mentioned it in their documentary. Helped them get players back from injury and spring-boarded them into 4 weeks of finals. I think we'll see the bye throwing up some interesting results, with teams potentially playing 1 game in almost a month before playing another.
 

demondavey

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#97
West Coast should walk it this season. Only team capable of stopping them is GWS but I have my doubts about them. Geelong don’t have the forward line to score high enough against WCE and Richmond + Melbourne have lost the plot. Every other side is poor to ordinary and are simply making up numbers.

The only issue West Coast has is that it’s early days. You probably don’t want to be overwhelming favourites at this stage. No doubt they enjoyed flying under the radar all of last season, just as Richmond did in 2017, but for the whole season, every other side will be picking apart their game plan. It only takes one clever coach to figure you out when it matters. It has happened before and it will happen again. Probably not to WCE though. I think they’re an awesome team and the rest of the competition is generally quite weak. They should have no troubles going back to back.
I don’t think they flew under the radar last year, they were winning plenty from early on and them and Richmond were all people talked about.

I think the Eagles have it in the bag if they just maintain and stay injury free. Essentially look after JK and make sure he is ok for a month come finals. They play the MCG well now and they’ll not be beaten in Perth so all things going well they’ll be top 2.

Richmond and the WB employed this crazy pressure game where swarms of mid sized midfielders and forwards just harassed and created scoring chances. It was this crazy high intense game that was hard to keep up with. Hawthorn and WC use the vast spaces of the G for accurate field possession and domination of uncontested touches, weaving back to a traditional forward line whilst having an elite defence full of skilled runners and shut down types.

It’s no surprise Hawthorn are still thereabouts 4 years after their last flag. It’s the kind of game plan that just works; good field kickers, domination of the uncontested possession, accurate goal kicking and just a reliable defence.

Richmond and the WB will probably burn out, much like Melbourne are at risk of going nowhere if they can’t improve skills and ball movement.
 

demondavey

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#99
What about the Dogs though?
The dogs actually weren’t that good bar a month of football in 2016. I am steadfast on that. They’ve been abject failures two years post that flag and this year look average. Richmond had better big name stars. The Dogs played a highly contested inside game hell bent on pressure and intensity. That’s why they could beat Sydney. Geelong in 2016 really missed out, they’re game style was more traditional and they often beat the Dogs by taking away their rolling zone. If you get sucked into that contested dogfight you’ll struggle against the Dogs of 16 and Tigers of 17.

Teams with good outside run, an ability to break the zone by kicking through or over it would beat them. You need to control space and exploit the lack of height they employed. Geelong in 16 would’ve smashed the Dogs in the GF (if you’re into hypotheticals).
 
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