Opinion Has this Carlton list already peaked?

[Mr Meow]

Not attacking or belittling anyone, just sharing my thoughts, after you tagged me

Play on

In other words you have nothing to contribute (agree/disagree and why) to the balanced, unbiased points I raised around football. But are merely snooping around responding to any post that has the word "Fadge". It's such a weird obsession.

 

[THE_GUN]

*Disliking being called out for chasing antagonistic troll tests instead of actually discussing the football points raised.

We have 3 options for 'Disliking a post'
Sad face , Angry face and thumbs down

ArrOw using the laughing emoji could just mean he finds your post funny for some reason or another or he is being polite and doesnt want to give it a 'bad' Emoji

dont take it personally its just an emoji

 

[Mr Meow]

We have 3 options for 'Disliking a post'
Sad face , Angry face and thumbs down

ArrOw using the laughing emoji could just mean he finds your post funny for some reason or another or he is being polite and doesnt want to give it a 'bad' Emoji

dont take it personally its just an emoji

It's fine if backed up by a football discussion where opinions and rebuttals are part of the game. If something crazy was said about Carlton I welcome robust counter points. He's incapable of contributing in the latter format.

 

[THE_GUN]

He’s salty because he’s been alive for 8 Carlton flags but only has vivid memories of 5 of them, born too late

Not many AFL supporters get to have vivid memories of 5 premierships

I would call him a lucky man

 

[THE_GUN]

It's fine if backed up by a football discussion where opinions and rebuttals are part of the game. If something crazr was said about Carlton I welcome robust counter points. He's incapable of contributing in the latter format.

There are people on this board that have been around for 15 years and only have 1000 posts but just read and use an emoji
and thats ok as well , Not sure why you are so focused on the emoji'e
just let it go and move on

 

[Mr Meow]

There are people on this board that have been around for 15 years and only have 1000 posts but just read and use an emoji
and thats ok as well , Not sure why you are so focused on the emoji'e
just let it go and move on

Because we have a chance to discuss football and not turn every thread into a troll fest. It's poor form when the banter thread nonsense drips into other topics.

Similarly, you are really interested in my reaction to emoji's which is an even more abstract thing. Let it go and move on. There are football related points in here if the topic interests you.

 

[Arr0w]

In other words you have nothing to contribute (agree/disagree and why) to the balanced, unbiased points I raised around football. But are merely snooping around responding to any post that has the word "Fadge". It's such a weird obsession.

Firstly the OP, I don't believe we have peaked, but we certainly need to capitalise on this group in the next 3 years and or continue to rejuvenate with smart list management

As for your offerings, I don't rate them, due to your cognitive bias towards certain clubs which influences your "analysis" to share an unbiased and balanced view

Hope that answers your questions

 

[Mr Meow]

Firstly the OP, I don't believe we have peaked, but we certainly need to capitalise on this group in the next 3 years and or continue to rejuvenate with smart list management

As for your offerings, I don't rate them, due to your cognitive bias towards certain clubs which influences your "analysis" to share an unbiased and balanced view

Hope that answers your questions

Which of the points I raised do you disagree with and why?

Your first paragraph essentially mirrored my thoughts (in less detail/depth), therefore I am only as anti Carlton biased as you.

 

[THE_GUN]

Absolutely, very lucky

Not sure then why he feels the need to lie about the other three must be the spoons

Spoons are interesting

Im 60 years old and used to hate it when my team copped the spoon and was seen to be a case od being a lost cause and a stain on the club but things change and this year i dont have an issue with getting the spoon and wouldnt really care if we copped the next 2 provided the club was on track to rebuild in a way that gets us back to competing for a flag.

Finishing 6-12 is actually a worse position to be in and a bit of no mans land
as you can understand Richmond has finished 9th a few times and its probably the worse position on the ladder as you can get with No hope of finals no hope of rebuilding through the draft and simply in no mans land

maybe its the 3 flags in the dynasty era that has change me or maybe its just age and wisdom - Who knows
But i have been extremely lucky with the flags in my life time with 8 flags

 

[Mr Meow]

Why would I be salty?

I see you failed to address which of my points reflected a biased, unbalanced view not worthy of discussion.

Glad to see that in fact you actually agreed with the points I presented then. So much for "cognitive bias against certain clubs" eh. Looks like when challenged you have absolutely nothing to back that up.

 

[Arr0w]

I see you failed to address which of my points reflected a biased, unbalanced view not worthy of discussion.

Glad to see that in fact you actually agreed with the points I presented then. So much for "cognitive bias against certain clubs" eh. Looks like when challenged you have absolutely nothing to back that up.

Not interested in your views of the game

 

[Mr Meow]

Not interested in your views of the game

Mission failure then if your cognitive bias against posters stops you from assessing discussion points on their merit.

 

[JustaBattler]

Carlton's list is developing like every otjher team in the competition. Whilst it is easier for observors to focus on the usual starting 22 players - there are another same sized group of players on the Club's list. Carlton only got control of its own VFL team 3 years ago and (IMO) only took list manageemnt and the draft seriously about 5 years ago. Developing younger players in VFL has only become a 'thing' at Carlton for abotu 3 years - these are facts based on comparing facitlities and resources and control today versus previous as above.

So based on these facts- I woud say that teh Carlton list can not have peaked in terms of potential - because I qwould argue that the Club's overall development regime is in its infancy.

eg it is only 2 years in my reckoning that Carlton ahs enjoyed the luxury of being able to develop some decent teenage talent in VFL without having to throw teenagers to the wolves - as seen in the Bolton era.

The CLub ahs a long way to go - finishing bottom 3 in teh VFL - but that peformance output will improve fairly quicly from here.

As for age profile of the typical best 25 ish player at Carlton - the oldest payer on teh list is Newman. So if we assume that a good playerr can player well till they are 32/33 years of age- Carlton has a current starting list of 24/25 AFl capable players with a duration based on teheir age - of easily 5 years.

Wether the Club achieves a flag in that period or not is a different quesion - somethign other teams hav emore control over than not. However I m happy to see the CLub investing in a longer term perspective being built on a fairly strong platform today - again somethign farly new for Carlton supporters and welcome imo.

If peopel think Carlton is going to lose relevancy anytime soon - they are entitled to that POV an can banter away.

 

[bradfisher14]

They're currently good enough for top 4. Bridging that last gap can require a few missing pieces.

Geelong 2017-2020 were a good-ish team but had serious flaws - especially in terms of the forward mix and runners. SDK, Cameron, Smith, Holmes and Stengle addressed most of them ready for 2022 before the large core of older players started declining. It allowed Blicavs and Atkins to move into midfield to add depth and accountability there, which refreshed Selwood and Dangerfield for a finals assault.

Collingwood 2023 got the help they needed in midfield from Mitchell and up forward with McStay + Hill. Of course there's no flag without N.Daicos turning into a star as quickly as he did. All important through the year and at stages in at least one of those close finals.

Brisbane 2024: comparing it to their 2022 finals series for instance, Dunkley and Ashcroft made a big difference. Indirectly it allowed Zorko to be an All Australian half back once Coleman went down. Lohman, Morris and Fletcher chipped in at important moments as well.

All of the above additions allowed the sides to be better balanced, have more weapons and make important positional rotations to existing players. Have the Blues recruited the players that will do the same to address their current weaknesses? It doesn't seem obvious yet. Their supporters will be able to answer that better.

Fair points. I'll do my best to answer.

My theory is that the list management team has taken an 'addition by subtraction' approach to address what you're talking about. From their actions, it seems that they believe we already have the players on the list that will make an impact, but they need the opportunity in the senior team to be able to do so.

- Trading Matt Kennedy - most people look at him and see an above average AFL midfielder. The issue is that we have too many slower types in our midfield and Voss finds it difficult to overlook him for selection. Therefore he either plays midfield and we get burnt on the outside or he gets thrown into our forward line, making it slower than it already is. Losing Kennedy, and to a lesser extent Jack Carroll, makes more room for dynamic types in the midfield that will better complement Cripps/Hewett. I can see Adam Cerra, Sam Walsh, and Jagga Smith playing big roles in this regard.

- Trading Matt Owies - on paper, we've lost our best small forward and our most consistent goal kicker outside of Charlie and Harry. The reality of Owies as a player is very different from my view. He doesn't play like a traditional small forward - instead he is a small player that operates like a lead up third tall. He frequently occupies the leading space that should be used by Charlie and Harry. He also provides very little forward pressure, has poor kicking skills, isn't a dynamic athlete, and routinely goes missing in big games. I won't deny that getting rid of him is a risk, but the upside for the team will be significant if the likes of Motlop/Durdin/Moir/Kemp can step up in his place and Charlie/Harry can make the most of the vacated leading space.

 

[THE_GUN]

Carlton's list is developing like every otjher team in the competition. Whilst it is easier for observors to focus on the usual starting 22 players - there are another same sized group of players on the Club's list. Carlton only got control of its own VFL team 3 years ago and (IMO) only took list manageemnt and the draft seriously about 5 years ago. Developing younger players in VFL has only become a 'thing' at Carlton for abotu 3 years - these are facts based on comparing facitlities and resources and control today versus previous as above.

So based on these facts- I woud say that teh Carlton list can not have peaked in terms of potential - because I qwould argue that the Club's overall development regime is in its infancy.

eg it is only 2 years in my reckoning that Carlton ahs enjoyed the luxury of being able to develop some decent teenage talent in VFL without having to throw teenagers to the wolves - as seen in the Bolton era.

The CLub ahs a long way to go - finishing bottom 3 in teh VFL - but that peformance output will improve fairly quicly from here.

As for age profile of the typical best 25 ish player at Carlton - the oldest payer on teh list is Newman. So if we assume that a good playerr can player well till they are 32/33 years of age- Carlton has a current starting list of 24/25 AFl capable players with a duration based on teheir age - of easily 5 years.

Wether the Club achieves a flag in that period or not is a different quesion - somethign other teams hav emore control over than not. However I m happy to see the CLub investing in a longer term perspective being built on a fairly strong platform today - again somethign farly new for Carlton supporters and welcome imo.

If peopel think Carlton is going to lose relevancy anytime soon - they are entitled to that POV an can banter away.

I see Carlton as being in their window for the next 5-6 years
Anything short of 1 premiership would be a massive disappointment with the top end talent Carlton have on their list all entering their peak and at similar age.

Its not often you get a Cripps , Walsh , Curnow , Wietering , McKay , DeKoning types together at similar age
Richmond had that with Rance , Cotchin , Edwards , Martin , Riewoldt , Prestia & Lynch and managed 3 premierships

2 Things that hold me back from calling the Carlton list / Team perfect at the moment is the lack of 2 quality small fowards and their game style which is too predictable and 1 dimensional and needs tweaking but is Voss the coach to do this ?

Blake Caracella would have been the perfect senior assistant for carlton to chase this off season as he was the architect that transformed Richmonds game and added the extra dimensions to it.

But i still see Carlton as top 4 team in 2025 and think along with fremantle are the 2 teams that look to be the best placed to challenge the next 5/6 years

 

[JustaBattler]

I see Carlton as being in their window for the next 5-6 years
Anything short of 1 premiership would be a massive disappointment with the top end talent Carlton have on their list all entering their peak and at similar age.

Its not often you get a Cripps , Walsh , Curnow , Wietering , McKay , DeKoning types together at similar age
Richmond had that with Rance , Cotchin , Edwards , Martin , Riewoldt , Prestia & Lynch and managed 3 premierships

2 Things that hold me back from calling the Carlton list / Team perfect at the moment is the lack of 2 quality small fowards and their game style which is too predictable and 1 dimensional and needs tweaking but is Voss the coach to do this ?

Blake Caracella would have been the perfect senior assistant for carlton to chase this off season as he was the architect that transformed Richmonds game and added the extra dimensions to it.

But i still see Carlton as top 4 team in 2025 and think along with fremantle are the 2 teams that look to be the best placed to challenge the next 5/6 years

I'd add the lack of a genuine 2nd KPD as a missing piece - Voss is a defense first type coach and he needs smaller forwards to pressure more than to manufacture magic goals in his mind. The game plan is pretty standard - hard to break away from it - because I see Carlton's biggest issue as below average field kicking ability. It is a tackle and run team that can play that way with some expected success due to a couple of decent talls up front. Under Voss I dont think we will see anything 'revlutionary' in terms new game plan and styles.

 

[carlton_99]

I can see Adam Cerra, Sam Walsh, and Jagga Smith playing big roles in this regard.

I would also add Elijah Hollands to this. Hoping to see him get more midfield time in 2025. As you say balancing out Cripps/Hewett is crucial and with his ball use and ability to spread from the stoppage I think he can help in this area. Plus his ability to get forward and kick a goal is a bonus.

A midfield group of Cripps, Hewett, Walsh, Cerra, E.Hollands, Smith and potentially Docherty/Lord I think gives us a much better balance than we have had in the past with the likes of Kennedy and Carroll both offensively and defensively.

 

[Worm4]

The circus must be on an intermission

 

[Frank Grimes]

Still at their peak. With a good run of injuries and a bit of luck they could win the flag.

Can't see them getting any better though. Will probably drop in form and being out of contention for the flag in about 2 years.

 

[Fadge]

Still at their peak. With a good run of injuries and a bit of luck they could win the flag.

Can't see them getting any better though. Will probably drop in form and being in contention for the flag in about 2 years.

So you can't see them getting any better after having 12, 13 and 13 win home and away seasons over the past 3 years, but you think with a bit of luck they could win the flag?

There's been a fair gap between Carlton and the top teams, and the teams around them have materially improved their lists in the off season.

 

[bradfisher14]

I would also add Elijah Hollands to this. Hoping to see him get more midfield time in 2025. As you say balancing out Cripps/Hewett is crucial and with his ball use and ability to spread from the stoppage I think he can help in this area. Plus his ability to get forward and kick a goal is a bonus.

A midfield group of Cripps, Hewett, Walsh, Cerra, E.Hollands, Smith and potentially Docherty/Lord I think gives us a much better balance than we have had in the past with the likes of Kennedy and Carroll both offensively and defensively.

Agreed. I would also love to see Cowan get a look at some centre bounces. He has some really nice traits.

 

[carlton_99]

Agreed. I would also love to see Cowan get a look at some centre bounces. He has some really nice traits.

I agree long-term he will definitely see more midfield minutes. We got a preview in the second game against Geelong this season when he lined up against Miers. He followed him to all of the stoppages Miers attended and did a great job - laid 8 tackles. Also has the burst/power to be a bit of a POD in that future midfield group.

 

[Mr Meow]

Fair points. I'll do my best to answer.

My theory is that the list management team has taken an 'addition by subtraction' approach to address what you're talking about. From their actions, it seems that they believe we already have the players on the list that will make an impact, but they need the opportunity in the senior team to be able to do so.

- Trading Matt Kennedy - most people look at him and see an above average AFL midfielder. The issue is that we have too many slower types in our midfield and Voss finds it difficult to overlook him for selection. Therefore he either plays midfield and we get burnt on the outside or he gets thrown into our forward line, making it slower than it already is. Losing Kennedy, and to a lesser extent Jack Carroll, makes more room for dynamic types in the midfield that will better complement Cripps/Hewett. I can see Adam Cerra, Sam Walsh, and Jagga Smith playing big roles in this regard.

- Trading Matt Owies - on paper, we've lost our best small forward and our most consistent goal kicker outside of Charlie and Harry. The reality of Owies as a player is very different from my view. He doesn't play like a traditional small forward - instead he is a small player that operates like a lead up third tall. He frequently occupies the leading space that should be used by Charlie and Harry. He also provides very little forward pressure, has poor kicking skills, isn't a dynamic athlete, and routinely goes missing in big games. I won't deny that getting rid of him is a risk, but the upside for the team will be significant if the likes of Motlop/Durdin/Moir/Kemp can step up in his place and Charlie/Harry can make the most of the vacated leading space.

Excellent post. These missing pieces I'm talking about aren't always free agents or trade ins. Smith for Kennedy and Moir for Owies could be two examples, albeit it might be unfair to expect too much in 2025.

Another strong KPD (freeing Gov up as a free interceptor) and one or two very dynamic, creative small forwards are what I'd see as "instant fixes". Throw a Stengle or Papley up forward and a Taylor or Buckley at CHB and I'd be very confident in Carlton finishing top 4, maybe even top 2.

It can still happen without those plug and play types, but the burden on the rest of the team rises.

 

[carlton_99]

Another strong KPD (freeing Gov up as a free interceptor) and one or two very dynamic, creative small forwards are what I'd see as "instant fixes". Throw a Stengle or Papley up forward and a Taylor or Buckley at CHB and I'd be very confident in Carlton finishing top 4, maybe even top 2.

A KPD and a small forward are positions of need but I personally don't think we need A-graders like the ones mentioned above in both positions to be a strong premiership contender. I was really hoping we would go for Leek Aleer who would be more realistic and I think would form a great partnership with Weitering. Shame he wanted to stay at the Giants where I struggle seeing him get a game with them having Taylor/Buckley/Himmelberg/Idun all well ahead as the core four in defence. Haynes will be the stop gap for now and expect us to hit the free agency market next year.

Small forward was a tough hole to fill this off-season as there weren't many moving clubs. I still think Motlop/Durdin have the the traits to be a good small forwards but still very inexperienced and have had seasons disrupted by injury. Would like an experienced type for the time being and I guess Williams will be that for 2025 at least. Showed great signs up forward but issue with him will always be durability.

 

[Mr Meow]

Carlton in 2024 (per Footywire):
Points for Vs Top-4 opposition (7 games): 100.1 points per game (#1 in AFL)
Points for Vs Top-8 opposition (10 games): 91.1 points per game (#1 in AFL)

Carlton were ranked #1 in the AFL for points per game against both Top-4 and Top-8 opposition in 2024. So you can ignore games against the bottom 4 and Carlton maintains a very strong offensive profile.

It's not always as simple as that though.

Geelong finished top 4 for points scored in several seasons where the forward line was a weakness.

The burden goes on other players to be more attack minded and not be able to support the defence. High points for and against can just end up a readout of an attacking game plan.

It usually gets found out in finals, as it did for Geelong on many occasions. Having a fleet of small forwards who can create, pressure and score makes a critical difference. It is tougher to score as many mark and lead goals in finals.