Have Geelong Improved? Or has the Rest of the Comp Gone Backwards?

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The narrative this year has been about the genius of Chris Scott and his reinvention of Geelong, in order to take them to the next level.

Apparently this is why they're better this year, statistically, than in recent years.

But I put it to you, that Geelong haven't improved at all. They're the same. They're the same Geelong that is a top 4 team with some warhorse superstars, some solid pros, and some average young guys.
The same Geelong that wins enough games at home to have a healthy % to match their win/loss and land in the top 4 - but always seems to find 1 or 2 teams that are just better each year.

The difference this year is not any changes to their game plan. It is not any changes to their personnel. It is that those 1 or 2 teams that are just better than them each year don't exist!

The comp has, without doubt in my mind, gone backwards this year.

That's why the standard feels better - because good teams are playing other good teams, and good teams are playing average teams each week. Not great teams beating up on average teams, and great teams handling good teams comfortably each week.

Collingwood are an average team in any other season. Sydney would be a 'team on the rise' in any other season. The 2022 version of Brisbane does not play in a Prelim in any other season.

St Kilda does not 'just miss the 8' in any other season. I mean s**t, they beat both Geelong and Sydney!

The comp is even, not because the rubbish teams are better this year, but because the great teams don't exist this year, and the really good teams aren't as good as other years.


Now this ain't a bad thing. And it's not a knock on Geelong. I just felt the need to dispel yet another bullshit footy myth that the media spruik and the public lap up.
You're off your rocker.
 
Parfitt, Menegola, O’Connor not getting final games is a good indication of improvement.

Dahlhaus and Higgins were also playing at times last year and not even in consideration.

Stengle has been the biggest single addition as we just didn’t have a goal kicking small forward last year. Allows Close and Myers to play up the ground.

De Koning allowing Blitz to play ruck/mid another bonus.

Cameron fitter.

Atkins and Zach Guthrie have improved.

Holmes also added speed and now more confident with his contest and disposal.


There hasn’t really been any negatives, other than perhaps those not in the team eg Menegola, Parfitt, O’Connor. Smith is perhaps down a little from highs of last year but still a good contributor. Rohan hasn’t done a lot throughout the year.


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Carlton, Port and St Kilda all massively under-performed this year. Collingwood over-performed. Most other teams were around the right spot.

Probably GWS under-performed but they are a team filled with over-paid lazy spuds.

I agree with this. I'd also say that Melbourne was very disappointing forward of centre this year and the Doggies completely lost the plot.

However, Geelong have improved marginally, as have Sydney.

The success of both grand finalists are an indication that there isn't one way to win a flag.

Method 1: rebuild and have a team that dominates for a 4-5 year period winning multiple premierships.
Method 2: have a consistent program that money balls the list and trades for the occasional high-quality star. Manage to keep your players' salaries under control.

Method 1 could lead to a team like Hawthorn, Richmond, Geelong, and Brisbane winning three. It could also bring you just one like Essendon, Collingwood or West Coast. In St Kilda's case, it brought zero.

Method 2 will have you with a team hardened from finals experience and lots of very good fringe or mature trades wanting to go to because you'll get a defined role. It also leads to stable membership and corporate support. Sydney has jagged two premierships in less than 20 years doing this approach and Geelong are now 6 years into this process. If they get one this year then I suppose it is worth it. As a supporter, you can turn up to the footy knowing your team has a 90% chance of giving a good account for itself. As a club, winning a flag once every decade is far and above one every 18 years that the AFL would like to see in an even comp.

However, I think there is a mirage with method 2. It actually isn't that much different than method 1. It just appears that way because humans feel like a decade is a lifetime. This type of thinking is why it is so difficult to win elections with sensible policies for sustainable environmental impacts and egalitarian economics. You will see that there are a few key administrators and players that hold everything together. They will eventually retire/leave.

The wheel turns.
 
Sydney is lucky cause even if they lose it’s not the end of the world

Even if some may rate the Swans more than us, this is still simply the game Geelong can’t afford to lose. Sydney have over performed for their list profile, just like Collingwood and Freo
 
Going way back reminds me of us going from 1994 to 95.Tinkered with things a bit, got a few new faces in for not much with the older guys managed very well throughout the year.
 
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Or
Everything looks better, that's the point! But it's not actually better.
Yes it is, though.

Last year Cats were accused of playing a silly slow chip-pass, keepings off game. They were labelled slow and unable to handle finals pressure. Scott and a his new team of assistants tinkered with the game plan.

This year we saw the Cats play a slicker, keep the ball moving at all costs game (something you rarely if ever saw in recent years). Add to that a fit Jeremy Cameron, Tyson Stengle (who has kicked 50 goals), a new fullback in Sam de Koning, the speed of Max Holmes, and improvement in players such as Tom Atkins, Brad Close, and Zach Guthrie.

Geelong's 3 main forwards have kicked a combined total of 176 goals. The three main Cats forwards in 2021 (Hawkins, Cameron and Rohan) kicked a total of 118 goals

Now if you can't see that it's on you...
 
Most of the lesser lights in our team are having career best/breakout years. Stengle AA, De Koning second in the rising star only behind a freak Daicos, Zac Guthrie gone from depth to one of the first picked in the backline, Holmes one of the highest rated wingers in the comp, Close flying under the radar and Atkins has gone from a back pocket plumber to a genuine top-line mid. Even young Gryan Miers was second best on ground in the prelim behind Dangerfield. A fit Cameron is a massive boost too + the gamestyle tweaks are highlighting everyone's strengths.

Regardless of the rest of the comp, we've clearly improved on previous years, there's simply no denying it.
But the OP doesn't see it so it can't be true...
 
How many times in history has a clear top 3 team ever had a % of 104?
But what does % matter once you're in the finals? It doesn't. It's a bit like getting obsessed with the age of players. If you make it into the finals and then win, and if you're over 30 and still performing at a high level, what does it matter?
 
I agree some of the better teams have dropped away. We really should’ve ended top last year also but fell over at the end with injury/illness.

Melbourne really stepped it up anyway in finals, but I also think we have significantly improved and are better than the dogs and Port from last year, who have dropped off.

We have definitely adapted our style. It does help Melbourne are not the same.
 

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The narrative this year has been about the genius of Chris Scott and his reinvention of Geelong, in order to take them to the next level.

Apparently this is why they're better this year, statistically, than in recent years.

But I put it to you, that Geelong haven't improved at all. They're the same. They're the same Geelong that is a top 4 team with some warhorse superstars, some solid pros, and some average young guys.
The same Geelong that wins enough games at home to have a healthy % to match their win/loss and land in the top 4 - but always seems to find 1 or 2 teams that are just better each year.

The difference this year is not any changes to their game plan. It is not any changes to their personnel. It is that those 1 or 2 teams that are just better than them each year don't exist!

The comp has, without doubt in my mind, gone backwards this year.

That's why the standard feels better - because good teams are playing other good teams, and good teams are playing average teams each week. Not great teams beating up on average teams, and great teams handling good teams comfortably each week.

Collingwood are an average team in any other season. Sydney would be a 'team on the rise' in any other season. The 2022 version of Brisbane does not play in a Prelim in any other season.

St Kilda does not 'just miss the 8' in any other season. I mean s**t, they beat both Geelong and Sydney!

The comp is even, not because the rubbish teams are better this year, but because the great teams don't exist this year, and the really good teams aren't as good as other years.


Now this ain't a bad thing. And it's not a knock on Geelong. I just felt the need to dispel yet another bullshit footy myth that the media spruik and the public lap up.

I posted this in one if the other threads but remarkable transformation has taken place at Kardinia Park over the space of 12 months:

Changes included:

  • Blicavs being freed from his backline role with De Koning stepping in
  • Holmes and Atkins in the midfield coming good
  • Change in game plan
  • Change in coaching structure (new assistants came in at the end of last year)
  • Their older guns no longer have to carry the brunt of the workload in games. Can be saved for when really required...Selwood is proof of that
  • Cameron playing to his potential along with Hawkins who has maintained form as a mature age player
  • Stengle coming in and playing at AA level as a small forward
I dislike them as much as any Hawthorn or Tigers supporter but credit where credit is due. There has been significant change at the Cats this year.

As for the GF, the Cats had a training run on Friday night with 250+ uncontested possessions. That's absurd!! Brisbane not only didn't show up but they were as soft as I have seen all year. There is no way the Swans will allow the Cats to play no pressure football. I am of the opinion the Cats midfield simply won't have the run required to put them to the sword. Time will tell.

I'm happy though to give the club the credit it deserves. Kudos to them.
 
Adding Stengle, SDK and Holmes to the 22 and seeing huge improvements to Close and Zach Guthrie without any massive drop-offs to the older blokes, while playing with a more attacking, high pressure style has helped.

But yeah, if Geelong wins it's because the comp has gone backwards

Every year someone on BF comes on here and sprouts..."weakest season ever". Tigers copped it for all 3 of their flags. Melbourne copped it. Hawks have etc etc...
 
Every year someone on BF comes on here and sprouts..."weakest season ever". Tigers copped it for all 3 of their flags. Melbourne copped it. Hawks have etc etc...
Was wild to say about Melbourne last year, but people still did. Port, Geelong and Brisbane all had super seasons, and Melbourne were head and shoulders above.
 
As a dees I can definitely say that we went backwards. by a long way. Our game plan was stifled, and we had a lot of players who didn't improve.

Geelong have definitely improved from last year. Because they have Stengle and De Koning.

But the winner of this year's grand final won't be remembered the way the dees smashed everyone in last year's finals so I'd say that if Geelong win this year, they'd lose to the 2021 dees by about 6 goals.
 
This year has been very disappointing! So many top teams lacking composure in final quarters, but that isn't Geelong's fault! They have obviously improved, while the teams around them, especially from last year have digressed.
Anyway...I firmly believe 2015 was clearly the strongest season ever. It was so good that Geelong had no choice but to finish 10th.
 
You could ask this question any season since expansion started and salary cap era truly impacted how much talent a team could have on a list.
The standard to be the best team in an 18 team league is lower than 16, that was lower than 14 etc etc. but, numerically you still only 1 of 18 teams so in terms of probability it harder to be the premiership team each year despite the difference between the average teams to best teams not being much.
 
But what does % matter once you're in the finals? It doesn't. It's a bit like getting obsessed with the age of players. If you make it into the finals and then win, and if you're over 30 and still performing at a high level, what does it matter?
It matters because having a % of 104 indicates you're an average team that hasn't been winning convincingly.

The fact that an average team that hasn't been winning convincingly all year, pushes both GF teams to within a point, suggests that the standard of the competition is very weak this year.
 
Sydney is lucky cause even if they lose it’s not the end of the world

Even if some may rate the Swans more than us, this is still simply the game Geelong can’t afford to lose. Sydney have over performed for their list profile, just like Collingwood and Freo
Yeah, I think it is the Cats premiership to lose at this point.
Mind you, Sydney have won 9 in a row so clearly they have proven they are the next best team at this point and would not take much to become the best team on Saturday.
I expect Cats to win, but do not take Swans lightly.
15 wins in a row for Cats and 9 wins in row for Swans is damning on the other teams in the league as the season has gone on.
 
Yeah, I think it is the Cats premiership to lose at this point.
Mind you, Sydney have won 9 in a row so clearly they have proven they are the next best team at this point and would not take much to become the best team on Saturday.
I expect Cats to win, but do not take Swans lightly.
15 wins in a row for Cats and 9 wins in row for Swans is damning on the other teams in the league as the season has gone on.
Feels like 2007 for mine. Hope it’s not 2008
 
Outside of Melbourne the rest of the comp was s**t last year. We dominated 2021, only lost four games for the year, won the prelim by 80 points or something and grand final 70+. We've dropped off, but Swans, Geelong and Collingwood all improved. Hope Dees can get back up there next year, we looked pretty slow and banged up at the end there, our last half of the season was bottom 8 level.
 

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