Analysis Have we finally got in place a model for sustainable long term flag contention?

[M Malice]

The next decade is going to be fun to watch for us Lions fans, have Fagan, Noble and co. built a sustainable model for consistent contention? IMO yes, how many flags that brings is almost impossible to predict although top 4 is possible and top 8 likely, then hopefully we get into September in form and with a largely healthy list.

Except for the below (7) every player on our list is 27 years of age or younger so at least 4-5 years left.

Martin 33- We haven't got an obvious replacement on our list for Stef, with Skiner/Ballenden more part time rucks, would like us to trade in a ready made back up for the big O.
Birchall 32- Witherden should be able to play that role or do we trade in, if we could nab Zac Williams or Rory Laird it would be ideal.
Zorko 31- Bullish on Zac Bailey being Zorks long term like for like replacement although Zorks strikes me as someone who could play well into his 30s.
Robinson 31- I love Robbo but I think his role can be covered without much fuss, maybe Tom Berry I think TB brings like for like intangibles with his aggression/courage/heart much like Robbo.
Eagles 30- No need to actively seek out a like for like replacement for Matty.
Rich 30- Witho/Hinge/Prior? Richy in career best form right now, hopefully stays durable and we get another 3-4 years out of him.
Christensen 29- Should be covered fine.

In saying all that, all we really have to do is continue on with what we have been doing ie. nailing drafts and trades...... maybe the hardest to replace long term will be Noble and Fagan, hopefully they both stay long term (Sir Alec Ferguson was the boss at Manchester United for 25 years), as well as our talent identification and recruitment team.

 

[FLVanLandingham]

(Sir Alec Ferguson was the boss at Manchester United for 25 years)

Why put limits to perfection. We should be gearing up for our 4th surge around then, I'm sure Fagan would like to get a nice even bakers dozen premierships

As much as I love seeing Zorko and Martin play, I think I will most miss Rich, and the vision of some of those beautiful kicks.

 

[Lazza16]

List numbers could be drastically cut next season which could force the premature cutting of some of our senior citizens mainly disturbingly Robbo I am thinking. I love this guy but so far this season it is obvious to me he has lost a yard or two in pace....not sure of h i s contract length tho.

Also see some of our younger guns playing scratch matches getting raided from opposition teams dangling bigger carrots which could ultimately hinder our depth.

Would also not be surprised if our fitness guru's were offered incentives they could not refuse to move on
.
Thanks Jason

 

[scoman]

List numbers could be drastically cut next season which could force the premature cutting of some of our senior citizens mainly disturbingly Robbo I am thinking. I love this guy but so far this season it is obvious to me he has lost a yard or two in pace....not sure of h i s contract length tho.

Also see some of our younger guns playing scratch matches getting raided from opposition teams dangling bigger carrots which could ultimately hinder our depth.

Would also not be surprised if our fitness guru's were offered incentives they could not refuse to move on
.
Thanks Jason

Robbo is contracted for next year tho so I don't see him being cut. I would imagine he would take being dropped to the reserves pretty well anyway. If the AFL wants to cut lists they will probs do it over two or three years. Perhaps no rookie list this year with a total list of 40? We have enough players off contract to do this without too much trouble. Will be pretty tough to take for those players tho having not had much of a chance to prove their worth this year.

 

[trikster]

Zorko 31- Bullish on Zac Bailey being Zorks long term like for like replacement although Zorks strikes me as someone who could play well into his 30s.
Robinson 31- I love Robbo but I think his role can be covered without much fuss, maybe Tom Berry I think TB brings like for like intangibles with his aggression/courage/heart much like Robbo.

I'd probably swap these 2 over. Bailey with his pace and endurance running up and down a wing and T Berry with his forward pressure playing half forward.

 

[irel]

Hmmm

 

[dlanod]

View attachment 906345
Hmmm

No point discussing how many there are afterwards, you already know.

 

[M Malice]

View attachment 906345
Hmmm

Thread discussing Lions future... maybe what this forum/board is for?

 

[briztoon]

List numbers could be drastically cut next season which could force the premature cutting of some of our senior citizens mainly disturbingly Robbo I am thinking. I love this guy but so far this season it is obvious to me he has lost a yard or two in pace....not sure of h i s contract length tho.

Also see some of our younger guns playing scratch matches getting raided from opposition teams dangling bigger carrots which could ultimately hinder our depth.

Would also not be surprised if our fitness guru's were offered incentives they could not refuse to move on
.
Thanks Jason

Probably the least of my concerns.

There’s been significant reporting that the soft cap will become a hard cap, so all teams will be operating with the same, drastically cut budget for off field staff.

 

[irel]

No point discussing how many there are afterwards, you already know.

Yeah I loved the 2033 premiership team. Especially liked Robbo's son making his debut in a premiership winning game. What a legacy he has left the club. Didn't enjoy Browny's son losing his spot to Robbo Jrn though.

 

[jjami15]

Probably the least of my concerns.

There’s been significant reporting that the soft cap will become a hard cap, so all teams will be operating with the same, drastically cut budget for off field staff.

Soooo functioning at the same level as we have been, interesting!

 

[irel]

Thread discussing Lions future... maybe what this forum/board is for?

I gather you don't hold to cliches such as a"A week is a long time on footy" or "we'll take it one week at a time"

 

[briztoon]

Soooo functioning at the same level as we have been, interesting!

Yeah, I believe Caro or Niall pointed out we had been operating well bellow the current soft cap before everything went to crap, when they were discussing the Vic teams complaining about the cuts, and the number of staff some Vic clubs *cough* Richmond & Collingwood *cough* have had to let go.

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

Interestingly our best players were all drafted well down the board.
Neale 58
Andrews 61
Lyons 61
Charlie Cameron (Rookie)
Zorko (not drafted for 100 years or something)

Just goes to show their are diamonds outside the first two rounds.

 

[M Malice]

I gather you don't hold to cliches such as a"A week is a long time on footy" or "we'll take it one week at a time"

A day is a long time on the planet at the moment let alone footy, I just enjoy discussing all things Lions, we are after all footy wannabe nuffie experts.

 

[briztoon]

Interestingly our best players were all drafted well down the board.
Neale 58
Andrews 61
Lyons 61
Charlie Cameron (Rookie)
Zorko (not drafted for 100 years or something)

Just goes to show their are diamonds outside the first two rounds.

We paid pick 6 (and a late first round pick) for Neale. He might have been drafted late, but we paid high picks to get him.

I guess you haven’t watched McCluggage and Berry since they arrived at the club. Or Rayner, Bailey and Starcevich.

There’s a possibility this years draft only goes for two rounds.

 

[a mayes ing]

We paid pick 6 (and a late first round pick) for Neale. He might have been drafted late, but we paid high picks to get him.

I guess you haven’t watched McCluggage and Berry since they arrived at the club. Or Rayner, Bailey and Starcevich.

There’s a possibility this years draft only goes for two rounds.

Think you misinterpreted. He is talking about how there are good players outside of the first few rounds. Yes we paid a high price for a few of them but they were drafted low.

 

[3KZ is Football]

I firmly believe we are set for at least the next five years and I think we can expect a minimum of one flag in that period and I wouldn’t be surprised if we won three. We have some sensational “kids” and a lot of gun players on our list in the 22-25 year range. J. Berry and McCluggage are both 22 and they are going to be midfield stars for the next 10 years, but people shouldn’t forget that Bailey, Starcevich, Rayner and Answerth are 20, Witherden is 21, Hipwood is only 23, Andrews 23, Mathieson 23, Gardiner is 24, McStay 25, Cameron 26, McInerney 26, McCarthy 26 and Lyons, Neale and Lester are 27. Then there are a bunch of great kids that have had a super successful grounding in the NEAFL who are ready to step up. I say without fear of contradiction that we have the best list in the competition by a mile.

 

[lionshine]

I firmly believe we are set for at least the next five years and I think we can expect a minimum of one flag in that period and I wouldn’t be surprised if we won three. We have some sensational “kids” and a lot of gun players on our list in the 22-25 year range. J. Berry and McCluggage are both 22 and they are going to be midfield stars for the next 10 years, but people shouldn’t forget that Bailey, Starcevich, Rayner and Answerth are 20, Witherden is 21, Hipwood is only 23, Andrews 23, Mathieson 23, Gardiner is 24, McStay 25, Cameron 26, McInerney 26, McCarthy 26 and Lyons, Neale and Lester are 27. Then there are a bunch of great kids that have had a super successful grounding in the NEAFL who are ready to step up. I say without fear of contradiction that we have the best list in the competition by a mile.

Not too mention we have another two first round picks this year to add even more talent to our list! Exciting times for us. I'm hopeful Ely Smith and Deven Robertson can become gun mids for us as well.

 

[Mighty Lions]

I firmly believe we are set for at least the next five years and I think we can expect a minimum of one flag in that period and I wouldn’t be surprised if we won three. We have some sensational “kids” and a lot of gun players on our list in the 22-25 year range. J. Berry and McCluggage are both 22 and they are going to be midfield stars for the next 10 years, but people shouldn’t forget that Bailey, Starcevich, Rayner and Answerth are 20, Witherden is 21, Hipwood is only 23, Andrews 23, Mathieson 23, Gardiner is 24, McStay 25, Cameron 26, McInerney 26, McCarthy 26 and Lyons, Neale and Lester are 27. Then there are a bunch of great kids that have had a super successful grounding in the NEAFL who are ready to step up. I say without fear of contradiction that we have the best list in the competition by a mile.

The challenge for the club will be to keep this list of quality players at the club for the majority of their careers. There are plenty on the list that will become free agents in the prime of their footy. (most of the ones you list above) The one big carrot to keep them at Brisbane is playing finals & winning premierships. Money becomes less a priority if winning premierships come to the club as it did in the early 2000's. I have no doubt that some of our Vic boys are thinking about returning to Melbourne some time in their careers.

 

[Dylan12]

The challenge for the club will be to keep this list of quality players at the club for the majority of their careers. There are plenty on the list that will become free agents in the prime of their footy. (most of the ones you list above) The one big carrot to keep them at Brisbane is playing finals & winning premierships. Money becomes less a priority if winning premierships come to the club as it did in the early 2000's. I have no doubt that some of our Vic boys are thinking about returning to Melbourne some time in their careers.

The worry I have in the current AFL climate, which is there nothing we can do about, is that a lot of players will want to "experience" playing in Melbourne or for some of the WA / SA guys, playing back in their home states. Of course there are outliers such as many of our players during the premiership years and Dan Rich later on, but given how easy it is move nowadays, if we have either had success or are back on the way down, I have no doubt many of the guys will move on as is their right in the current climate. Hopefully, many are as loyal as the Dan Rich's and our premiership year players.

 

[Mighty Lions]

The worry I have in the current AFL climate, which is there nothing we can do about, is that a lot of players will want to "experience" playing in Melbourne or for some of the WA / SA guys, playing back in their home states. Of course there are outliers such as many of our players during the premiership years and Dan Rich later on, but given how easy it is move nowadays, if we have either had success or are back on the way down, I have no doubt many of the guys will move on as is their right in the current climate. Hopefully, many are as loyal as the Dan Rich's and our premiership year players.

Agree. Also you cant blame any of them for moving if they want to...even the home grown boys if they want the experience of playing for a traditional club in Melbourne. I guess it will come down to the success of the club, fitting them all into the given salary cap at the time & how they get on with the coach's & playing group as a whole. There are other determining issues but I believe these are the main ones.

 

[dlanod]

a lot of players will want to "experience" playing in Melbourne

I used to think this is true but the reason always given was the crowds and the support, and I must say that watching games this year it seems like that has really evaporated in Melbourne...

 

[Mighty Lions]

I used to think this is true but the reason always given was the crowds and the support, and I must say that watching games this year it seems like that has really evaporated in Melbourne...

The reason given is not always the real reason to move to Melbourne.