Hawks to exit Tassie after 2021?

Hawkk

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No chance of holding 8k members when no games played here.
Is it fair to say the experiment has been a failure then (from a supporter growth perspective). Didn’t we have 2,000 members in Tasmania (out of 30,000 total) before we started playing games down there in 2000?

Our Tasmanian membership, proportionate to our total membership is lower today then it was in 2006
 

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tige19

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Get out of Tassie.

Whilst it has played its role it’s honestly time to move on. We would lose members but I also think we’d have many jump on with increased Melbourne matches, given we get a fair run of time slots then you’d have to be confident that we would push back to 40k home attendance.

Melbourne really does need another ground, I’d love the club to partner with Collingwood and push those plans for another stadium in and the Olympic park/Goschs paddock.

What suits our club extremely well would be a 45-55k seat stadium, the way MCG/Docklands works with 1 size fits all is horrid.
 

Ned Ryerson

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Our MCG crowds are poor compared to other big Melbourne clubs, but apparently if we have more games in Melbourne these attendances will then increase? Sure, that's totally how supply and demand works.

Apathetic fans are the reason we aren't drawing the crowds we should be - not Tasmania. If you are telling me that having games against Fremantle and Brisbane would have the fans jostling one another to get into the G then I have a couple of bridges to sell you.

Also - those pining for the 4 matches to come back to Melbourne are going to be in for a nasty shock when at least 50% of those are going to be scheduled at Superhero Stadium.
 

Hawkk

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Our MCG crowds are poor compared to other big Melbourne clubs, but apparently if we have more games in Melbourne these attendances will then increase? Sure, that's totally how supply and demand works.

Apathetic fans are the reason we aren't drawing the crowds we should be - not Tasmania. If you are telling me that having games against Fremantle and Brisbane would have the fans jostling one another to get into the G then I have a couple of bridges to sell you.

Also - those pining for the 4 matches to come back to Melbourne are going to be in for a nasty shock when at least 50% of those are going to be scheduled at Superhero Stadium.
Are they actually though?

In 2007 Hawthorn had drawn 60k plus to just 5 home and away games in its history (including the Waverley farewell game) across more than 82 years of vfl / afl football.

In 2019, in a season where we will probably finish bottom 4, we will probably draw 65k plus to 4 home and away games in the one season.

Richmond, as the defending premier, with 100,000 members and the highest draw in the league last season drew 32,800 to their Saturday afternoon home game against Brisbane so this is not a problem that Hawthorn faces alone

Why are we such defeatists? Even our recent home games at Docklands (remember it was avoiding Docklands home games that was used to justify Tasmania) have been more than reasonable.

I’m sure we’ll take a financial hit if we left Tasmania but sooner or later we will need to adjust anyway. We’ve had 20 good years down there but the 2019 Hawthorn is a very different beat to the 1998 Hawthorn
 

Brant

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Are they actually though?

In 2007 Hawthorn had drawn 60k plus to just 5 home and away games in its history (including the Waverley farewell game) across more than 82 years of vfl / afl football.

In 2019, in a season where we will probably finish bottom 4, we will probably draw 65k plus to 4 home and away games in the one season.

Richmond, as the defending premier, with 100,000 members and the highest draw in the league last season drew 32,800 to their Saturday afternoon home game against Brisbane so this is not a problem that Hawthorn faces alone

Why are we such defeatists? Even our recent home games at Docklands (remember it was avoiding Docklands home games that was used to justify Tasmania) have been more than reasonable.

I’m sure we’ll take a financial hit if we left Tasmania but sooner or later we will need to adjust anyway. We’ve had 20 good years down there but the 2019 Hawthorn is a very different beat to the 1998 Hawthorn
Exactly, we're trying to build a $100m facility.

That financial hit we're gonna take couldn't come at a worse time
 

Ned Ryerson

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Are they actually though?

In 2007 Hawthorn had drawn 60k plus to just 5 home and away games in its history (including the Waverley farewell game) across more than 82 years of vfl / afl football.

In 2019, in a season where we will probably finish bottom 4, we will probably draw 65k plus to 4 home and away games in the one season.

Richmond, as the defending premier, with 100,000 members and the highest draw in the league last season drew 32,800 to their Saturday afternoon home game against Brisbane so this is not a problem that Hawthorn faces alone

Why are we such defeatists? Even our recent home games at Docklands (remember it was avoiding Docklands home games that was used to justify Tasmania) have been more than reasonable.

I’m sure we’ll take a financial hit if we left Tasmania but sooner or later we will need to adjust anyway. We’ve had 20 good years down there but the 2019 Hawthorn is a very different beat to the 1998 Hawthorn
2018 average home game attendances at the MCG

Hawthorn: 45,671
Richmond, 61,940
Collingwood 53,056

2019 average home game attendances at the MCG

Hawthorn: 42,471
Richmond: 70,745
Collingwood: 62,444

Not being a defeatist - just looking at the cold hard facts. There's a reason our club president was imploring fans to come out to games. Our attendances are a joke. Demanding more home games when people won't even turn up to the ones we have now is a bit rich.
 

Flukey!

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2018 average home game attendances at the MCG

Hawthorn: 45,671
Richmond, 61,940
Collingwood 53,056

2019 average home game attendances at the MCG

Hawthorn: 42,471
Richmond: 70,745
Collingwood: 62,444

Not being a defeatist - just looking at the cold hard facts. There's a reason our club president was imploring fans to come out to games. Our attendances are a joke. Demanding more home games when people won't even turn up to the ones we have now is a bit rich.
Our supporters can be fickle just like everyone else.
It is certainly showing at the moment.
 

wolvesjr34

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Was just posing a question about how it would all work, I know rivalries exist between Hobart and Launceston so if one city got all 11 games I couldn't see the other getting behind the team. Hence I think they'd have to split home games between the two in all honesty.
Yeah I realised I had misread it after I had hit send... but I was in a bad mood, so I couldnt be bothered editing. I'll offer my apologies, but yeah there's a serious north-south thing in this state. I'd attend a Tasmanian teams games if in Launceston, but not in Hobart.

They'd never be my team, team though. That will always be Hawthorn.
 

cb16

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2018 average home game attendances at the MCG

Hawthorn: 45,671
Richmond, 61,940
Collingwood 53,056

2019 average home game attendances at the MCG

Hawthorn: 42,471
Richmond: 70,745
Collingwood: 62,444

Not being a defeatist - just looking at the cold hard facts. There's a reason our club president was imploring fans to come out to games. Our attendances are a joke. Demanding more home games when people won't even turn up to the ones we have now is a bit rich.
Our G fixture has been awful to be fair.

Agreed though, we need the cash with Dingley happening and the club getting screwed about $20m with Liberals winning election.
 

tommyk72

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2018 average home game attendances at the MCG

Hawthorn: 45,671
Richmond, 61,940
Collingwood 53,056

2019 average home game attendances at the MCG

Hawthorn: 42,471
Richmond: 70,745
Collingwood: 62,444

Not being a defeatist - just looking at the cold hard facts. There's a reason our club president was imploring fans to come out to games. Our attendances are a joke. Demanding more home games when people won't even turn up to the ones we have now is a bit rich.
I think our draw this year has been a big influencing factor. Those afternoon sunday games are bad for whoever plays there, and they're really effected our averages.

To ground the conversation in fact, does anyone know the total revenue we generate per annum from tassie - both sponsorship and game day * 4 combined?
 

Ned Ryerson

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I think our draw this year has been a big influencing factor. Those afternoon sunday games are bad for whoever plays there, and they're really effected our averages.

To ground the conversation in fact, does anyone know the total revenue we generate per annum from tassie - both sponsorship and game day * 4 combined?
And the 2018 crowds?

If we were just as good at filling the G as we are at making excuse after excuse after excuse as to why we can’t fill it then we’d have a sell out every game.

And the sponsorship from the current Tassie deal alone was worth $19M over 5 years.
 

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Hawkk

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And the 2018 crowds?

If we were just as good at filling the G as we are at making excuse after excuse after excuse as to why we can’t fill it then we’d have a sell out every game.

And the sponsorship from the current Tassie deal alone was worth $19M over 5 years.
Our draw was terrible last year too

To be fair I’m not sure it’s a reasonable comparison with Richmond and Collingwood (the last two grand finalists)

We have been in decline since the 2016 QF, a better comparison would probably be our MCG home and away crowds in the 2012-16 period
 

MrPremiership

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And the 2018 crowds?

If we were just as good at filling the G as we are at making excuse after excuse after excuse as to why we can’t fill it then we’d have a sell out every game.

And the sponsorship from the current Tassie deal alone was worth $19M over 5 years.
What could we get from a different major sponsor? Couldn't it be close, or even more than $19m over 5 years?
 

Ned Ryerson

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Our draw was terrible last year too

To be fair I’m not sure it’s a reasonable comparison with Richmond and Collingwood (the last two grand finalists)

We have been in decline since the 2016 QF, a better comparison would probably be our MCG home and away crowds in the 2012-16 period
Unfair to compare us in 2018 to two other top 4 teams with high memberships who are long term MCG tenants and big Melbourne clubs? Are you high?
 

Ned Ryerson

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What could we get from a different major sponsor? Couldn't it be close, or even more than $19m over 5 years?
At the same time (2015) Emirates re-upped with Collingwood for 5 years and it was only $10M. I think if it was just that easy to clear out of Launceston and we could make more money playing those 4 games in Melbourne then we’d be looking into it. As it stands JK is very defensive over Tassie and I dare say he wants to keep up our deal down there and that the biggest reason for that would be financial.
 

Hawkk

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Unfair to compare us in 2018 to two other top 4 teams with high memberships who are long term MCG tenants and big Melbourne clubs? Are you high?
How long did it take in 2018 for our membership to cotton onto us being contenders?

The feel I got was that we over achieved but was nonetheless a long way short of being a premiership contender.

Look at our MCG crowds in 2016, in 2016 we played 3 non Victorian clubs in MCG home games and drew 42,977, 45,482 and 61,882 against the Eagles, the Crows and Swans.

That’s comparable to any club in Victoria
 

MrPremiership

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At the same time (2015) Emirates re-upped with Collingwood for 5 years and it was only $10M. I think if it was just that easy to clear out of Launceston and we could make more money playing those 4 games in Melbourne then we’d be looking into it. As it stands JK is very defensive over Tassie and I dare say he wants to keep up our deal down there and that the biggest reason for that would be financial.
Is he still defensive on Tassie? The language seems to have changed. Instead of "we're not leaving" its moved to "we're not leaving unless we're well compensated".

Are you sure about your figures? $19m includes all sponsorhips and also merchandise

That Emirates deal is only for half the year though isn't it? They alternate with CGU don't they?
 

Ned Ryerson

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Is he still defensive on Tassie? The language seems to have changed. Instead of "we're not leaving" its moved to "we're not leaving unless we're well compensated".

Are you sure about your figures? $19m includes all sponsorhips and also merchandise

That Emirates deal is only for half the year though isn't it? They alternate with CGU don't they?
$19M was the sponsorship alone. Not sure about the ancillary benefits.
 

MrPremiership

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$19M was the sponsorship alone. Not sure about the ancillary benefits.
Not according to that article. Nevertheless, its a gap we need to make up.

Club seems resigned to leaving Tassie in the near future and just ensuring they get the best deal possible. Guessing that means getting the AFL to tip money into Dingley
 

Ned Ryerson

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How long did it take in 2018 for our membership to cotton onto us being contenders?

The feel I got was that we over achieved but was nonetheless a long way short of being a premiership contender.

Look at our MCG crowds in 2016, in 2016 we played 3 non Victorian clubs in MCG home games and drew 42,977, 45,482 and 61,882 against the Eagles, the Crows and Swans.

That’s comparable to any club in Victoria
2016 eh. Funny you should mention it.

Coming off 3 premierships our average home crowd at the MCG was 49,665 - still below the 2017 Collingwood figure. In 2017 Collingwood hadn’t made the finals in successive years. Let me guess, 2016 had a bad draw? Bad weather? There was a good movie on each time we played?

Our home crowds are indefensible. Our supporters need to do better before whining about getting more home games. Want more - try showing up.
 

Ned Ryerson

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Hawkk

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2016 eh. Funny you should mention it.

Coming off 3 premierships our average home crowd at the MCG was 49,665 - still below the 2017 Collingwood figure. In 2017 Collingwood hadn’t made the finals in successive years. Let me guess, 2016 had a bad draw? Bad weather? There was a good movie on each time we played?

Our home crowds are indefensible. Our supporters need to do better before whining about getting more home games. Want more - try showing up.
With respect the home MCG crowds are a bit deceptive as we played 3 of 7 home games against non Victorian clubs (the other matches were against a woeful Melbourne (41,833), a disappointing Richmond (51,892 in the Sunday twilight slot), North Melbourne (50,657 one of two games North have drawn 50,000 plus too since 2014) and Collingwood in the last round (52,804 which was well below average)

That season we also played away games against Geelong (74,218), Richmond (49,678) and Melbourne (38,818)

In fact if you look at our MCG home / home and away average since 2000...

Year home games / away games
2000 36,296 (10) / 35,100 (12)
2001 34,718 (9) / 36,961 (12)
2002 38,430 (8) / 35,234 (13)
2003 32,530 (8) / 34,527 (11)
2004 27,510 (8) / 28,441 (11)

Clarkson arrives in 2005

2005 34,877 (8) / 36,275 (11)
2006 34,143 (5) / 37,503 (6)
2007 42,506 (7) / 43,456 (11)

2008 premiership / Franklin ton

2008 52,802 (7) / 51,379 (11)
2009 52,822 (7) / 54,266 (10)
2010 50,222 (7) / 53,086 (13)
2011 48,161 (7) / 51,876 (11)
2012 44,628 (7) / 51,636 (12)
2013 54,822 (6) / 58,123 (10)
2014 49,571 (7) / 52,622 (11)
2015 56,804 (6) / 59,152 (9)
2016 49,605 (7) / 51,356 (11)
2017 48,068 (6) / 50,525 (10)
2018 48,064 (6) / 53,924 (10)
2019 42,470 (6) / 45,078 (8 with a game against Geelong to come)

Now consider this, around 2012 the AFL changed their scheduling so that Hawthorn typically played 4 Victorian teams and 3 non Victorian teams (or 3/4) across their MCG games. Prior to this (like 2007) we often played 5 games against Victorian opposition and just 2 against non Victorian teams (Sydney 48,398 and Brisbane 39,007)

In certain seasons like 2012 we actually played 2 home games against Victorian clubs and 5 against non Victorian clubs (West Coast 50,028, Brisbane 35,478, Adelaide 33,524, GWS 26,718 and the GC 23,098)

I think given the circumstances 2019 Hawthorn is quite similar to 2006 Hawthorn (ladder position etc.)

Now if you go back to 2006 we played West Coast (Saturday afternoon) and Collingwood (Friday night) in almost identical circumstances...

2006 Rd 14 Hawthorn (5-8) v West Coast (10-3) drew 21,989
2019 Rd 15 Hawthorn (5-8) v West Coast (9-4) drew 31,825

2006 Rd 17 Collingwood (10-6) v Hawthorn (5-11) drew 54,306
2019 Rd 16 Hawthorn (5-9) v Collingwood (10-4) drew 66,405

On that basis, despite the criticism of Hawthorn crowds it’s pretty clear that Hawthorn’s baseline crowds are 10,000 or so higher then it was 12 years ago.

That baseline growth is easily the largest of any club in Victoria and effectively represents a 66% growth in card carrying Hawthorn members attending low drawing games in Melbourne featuring a middling Hawthorn (ie 30,000 instead of 20,000).

Sure we had a woeful attendance against GWS but that was Mother’s Day twilight and even in our golden era we were always prone to a terrible attendance here or there (in 2014 a 17,904 attendance against GWS preceded MCG crowds of 49,624, 70,516, 72,768 and 72,216 against Richmond, Collingwood, Sydney and Geelong)

When the 2008-2015 era begin to bare fruits we will get another significant jump in Melbourne based crowds.

It's really that jump which could elevate us to the Collingwood / Richmond type attendances (we are currently a rung back in 4th / 5th with a declining Carlton). But 15 years ago we were probably a rung back with Geelong and Melbourne and 15 years before we were probably with St Kilda etc.

I think we forget how small Hawthorn was prior to the 1980s and underestimate the time and effort it takes to grow the base

By contrast our Tasmanian numbers have stalled and in some instances have actually declined since 2006...

I think the time has come to try our hand in Victoria and see if we can become the big member, big drawing club Ian Dicker envisaged when we moved to the MCG in 2000
 
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Ned Ryerson

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With respect the home MCG crowds are a bit deceptive as we played 3 of 7 home games against non Victorian clubs (the other matches were against a woeful Melbourne (41,833), a disappointing Richmond (51,892 in the Sunday twilight slot), North Melbourne (50,657 one of two games North have drawn 50,000 plus too since 2014) and Collingwood in the last round (52,804 which was well below average)

That season we also played away games against Geelong (74,218), Richmond (49,678) and Melbourne (38,818)

In fact if you look at our MCG home / home and away average since 2000...

Year home games / away games
2000 36,296 (10) / 35,100 (12)
2001 34,718 (9) / 36,961 (12)
2002 38,430 (8) / 35,234 (13)
2003 32,530 (8) / 34,527 (11)
2004 27,510 (8) / 28,441 (11)

Clarkson arrives in 2005

2005 34,877 (8) / 36,275 (11)
2006 34,143 (5) / 37,503 (6)
2007 42,506 (7) / 43,456 (11)

2008 premiership / Franklin ton

2008 52,802 (7) / 51,379 (11)
2009 52,822 (7) / 54,266 (10)
2010 50,222 (7) / 53,086 (13)
2011 48,161 (7) / 51,876 (11)
2012 44,628 (7) / 51,636 (12)
2013 54,822 (6) / 58,123 (10)
2014 49,571 (7) / 52,622 (11)
2015 56,804 (6) / 59,152 (9)
2016 49,605 (7) / 51,356 (11)
2017 48,068 (6) / 50,525 (10)
2018 48,064 (6) / 53,924 (10)
2019 42,470 (6) / 45,078 (8 with a game against Geelong to come)

Now consider this, around 2012 the AFL changed their scheduling so that Hawthorn typically played 4 Victorian teams and 3 non Victorian teams (or 3/4) across their MCG games. Prior to this (like 2007) we often played 5 games against Victorian opposition and just 2 against non Victorian teams (Sydney 48,398 and Brisbane 39,007)

In certain seasons like 2012 we actually played 2 home games against Victorian clubs and 5 against non Victorian clubs (West Coast 50,028, Brisbane 35,478, Adelaide 33,524, GWS 26,718 and the GC 23,098)

I think given the circumstances 2019 Hawthorn is quite similar to 2006 Hawthorn (ladder position etc.)

Now if you go back to 2006 we played West Coast (Saturday afternoon) and Collingwood (Friday night) in almost identical circumstances...

2006 Rd 14 Hawthorn (5-8) v West Coast (10-3) drew 21,989
2019 Rd 15 Hawthorn (5-8) v West Coast (9-4) drew 31,825

2006 Rd 17 Collingwood (10-6) v Hawthorn (5-11) drew 54,306
2019 Rd 16 Hawthorn (5-9) v Collingwood (10-4) drew 66,405

On that basis, despite the criticism of Hawthorn crowds it’s pretty clear that Hawthorn’s baseline crowds are 10,000 or so higher then it was 12 years ago.

That baseline growth is easily the largest of any club in Victoria and effectively represents a 66% growth in card carrying Hawthorn members attending low drawing games in Melbourne featuring a middling Hawthorn (ie 30k instead of 20k).

Sure we had a woeful attendance against GWS but that was Mother’s Day twilight and even in our golden era we were always prone to a terrible attendance here or there (in 2014 a 17,904 attendance against GWS preceded MCG crowds of 49,624, 70,516, 72,768 and 72,216 against Richmond, Collingwood, Sydney and Geelong)

When the 2008-2015 era begin to bare fruits we will get another significant jump in Melbourne based crowds

By contrast our Tasmanian numbers have stalled and in some instances have actually declined since 2006
Okay. My argument is that our crowd numbers compared to the other big Melbourne clubs are poor. None of what you have presented dispels that.

You can come up with all the growth metrics you want. Simple fact is - Tasmania keeps on filling our coffers at a time when being profitable could not be more cruical to us. If the club has a chance for another 5 years in Tasmania at $4M coming in per annum versus another 2-3 games at the MCG against low-drawing teams - what do you think the club is going to do?

Our home crowds are a joke compared to the other big-membership clubs. If our supporters want more home games at the MCG then maybe show up to games? At present the club isn't exactly being compelled to move home games back to Melbourne and the AFL sure as hell isn't being compelled to have those 4 new games take place at the MCG.

Oh and if you think the club's overall position was the same in 2006 as it is now - then wow. Just wow.
 

Gralin

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Okay. My argument is that our crowd numbers compared to the other big Melbourne clubs are poor. None of what you have presented dispels that.

You can come up with all the growth metrics you want. Simple fact is - Tasmania keeps on filling our coffers at a time when being profitable could not be more cruical to us. If the club has a chance for another 5 years in Tasmania at $4M coming in per annum versus another 2-3 games at the MCG against low-drawing teams - what do you think the club is going to do?

Our home crowds are a joke compared to the other big-membership clubs. If our supporters want more home games at the MCG then maybe show up to games? At present the club isn't exactly being compelled to move home games back to Melbourne and the AFL sure as hell isn't being compelled to have those 4 new games take place at the MCG.

Oh and if you think the club's overall position was the same in 2006 as it is now - then wow. Just wow.
reread the post
Also Hawkk has a pretty good idea how crowds and the fixture work together

Yes we don't draw as well as Collingwood or Richmond but we don't get the same fixture as them either
 

Hawkk

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I’m talking about crowd and membership only not position of list.

If you want that comparison 2003 is probably a more age appropriate comparison (and it’s even more favourable indicating growth)

As for the AFL they are keen as mustard to bring Hawthorn back to Melbourne and would love for us to take Docklands games...

For what’s its worth I think we should be more pragmatic with the AFL and do a deal for an MCG / Docklands split...our attendances at Docklands for our now regular home game aren’t even that bad.

As for comparisons between Hawthorn and other big Victorian clubs, every club is different but if you look at our opponents, and the schedule of our games in the timeslots that they are allocated I think you’ll be surprised to find that our numbers don’t stake up too poorly against the big 4 (although remember we are still a step behind Coll / ESS / Rich in baseline Victorian support)

You’ll be surprised looking at the numbers subtle differences and nuances in scheduling such as a 1.10pm Sunday game v 3.20pm Sunday game can make for attendances.

That brings me to another point. It’s clear that Hawthorn’s membership base (with substantial outposts in SEQ, WA, SA and of course Tasmania) is much more national then many other Victorian clubs.

So I think to say that we have 80,000 members but only 30,000 show up to most Melbourne games (and perhaps 8,000 in Tasmania) is overly simplistic. There are extrapolating circumstances.

What I do think is clear is that in 2019 Hawthorn’s baseline is substantially larger then 15 years ago and when we get decent timeslots our attendances are very good
 
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