Hawthorn’s decline

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Elmer_Judd

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Jul 25, 2019
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I can see the Clarkson and Hawthorn relationship ending bittwrly/in acrimony if Clarkson start embracing the rebuild/playing kids sooner rather than later.
 

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Shadow89

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Our ability to pick up Moneyball talent has been pretty extraordinary, to be honest. Menegola and Kelly out of the WAFL, Blicavs out of Category B, Tom Stewart from our own VFL side, Dalhaus through FA, Rohan for peanuts...
Wells is a God - that is all
 

Shadow89

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I think that if it weren't for Danger, then we wouldn't have gone in on Tuohy, Hendo, Dal, Rohan, Stanley, GAJ etc.
Stanley was before Danger, but agree with the rest. Tbh, none of the aforementioned are guaranteed Best 22 right now, with only Rohan being essential (Stanley obviously is, but as mentioned, he's before 2015)
 

Luv_our_club

Norm Smith Medallist
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Stewart came from Scarlett = great luck for Geelong.
Menengola was a known talent = the Hawks loved him, "loved him", be we were stacked with talent and couldn't pay him.
Kelly = known talent. WC wanted him.
Stanley = great get... he has over fulfilled on his promise
Dalhouse = meh
Rohan = the buddy contract means Sydney bleed talent, and Rohan had personal tradegy.
Atkins = good.

Wells excels at the draft, but Geelong have been helped a lot with F/S and being the one club located in regional Victoria where there is a go home factor.
 

iameviljez

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Stanley was before Danger, but agree with the rest. Tbh, none of the aforementioned are guaranteed Best 22 right now, with only Rohan being essential (Stanley obviously is, but as mentioned, he's before 2015)
They're all in the best 22 right now, and all of them bar Henderson have played AFL whenever fit.
 

iameviljez

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Stewart came from Scarlett = great luck for Geelong.
Menengola was a known talent = the Hawks loved him, "loved him", be we were stacked with talent and couldn't pay him.
Kelly = known talent. WC wanted him.
If these players were seemingly so lucky and well-known, then why weren't other sides tripping over themselves to get them?

All three spent time in a second-tier comp as mature-aged players, and all performed well above expectations (in Stewart's case, a long way above expectations) at Geelong.

and being the one club located in regional Victoria where there is a go home factor.
Yes, that helps us in terms of Danger, Rohan and Dalhaus - but it also rules us out of the running for big fish like Lynch, O'Meara, Frawley and the like. Most players want to live in a city.
 

99cents

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Our ability to pick up Moneyball talent has been pretty extraordinary, to be honest. Menegola and Kelly out of the WAFL, Blicavs out of Category B, Tom Stewart from our own VFL side, Dalhaus through FA, Rohan for peanuts...
Oconner/ Ratugolea
 

Luv_our_club

Norm Smith Medallist
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If these players were seemingly so lucky and well-known, then why weren't other sides tripping over themselves to get them?

All three spent time in a second-tier comp as mature-aged players, and all performed well above expectations (in Stewart's case, a long way above expectations) at Geelong.


Yes, that helps us in terms of Danger, Rohan and Dalhaus - but it also rules us out of the running for big fish like Lynch, O'Meara, Frawley and the like. Most players want to live in a city.
Stewert = I never said he was well known, I said he was pumped up by Scarlet and led directly to your recuiters by Scarlett.

Kelly - WC were pissed you took Kelly. He was a gun in Perth. They were about to select him but you got in first. They took one flying Ryan instead. Most clubs would have taken Kelly in the 20's

Menegola = he was on two lists before you. He can't be called an unkown talent. We offered him a contract but couldn't offer him enough so he left to St Kilda where they temporarily killed his career like they do. And first hand reports say "we LOVED him".

You got lucky with Strewart and Kelly. Menengola was a good investment that it has taken a few years for you to collect on... similar to a Ricky Henderson type.
 

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Guardian Hawk

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I don't think its that fast a decline since the 3 peat - that was 5 years ago and was the oldest premiership winning team of all time or some such.

However, the decline from a mid range team looking likely to play finals to absolute basket case happened almost overnight and is quite strange.

Finished off last year with a number of big scalps (after finally finding some key forwards who could capitalise on our inside 50 dominance) and were a little unlucky to finish 9th before starting this season 3-1 with good wins against Brisbane and Richmond. We were sitting top 4, playing pretty good footy and looked on track to play finals.

Since then, we have been belted in the midfield and have easily been the worst team in the competition. We were very lucky to win one game (out of 10)since and just got thrashed by a winless team. There are probably some 2nd tier sides that would trouble us at the moment.

There is no genuine excuse or explanation either - we are still playing a pretty senior side with plenty of talented players. It's been strange to witness.
 

puppy_dog7

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Lol people have been saying this since 2010.

We literally only have Hawkins, Sel, Duncan and Taylor remaining from our 2011 flag. Rebuilt our entire list on the run, whilst not finishing any lower than 9th - defied the equalization process unlike Hawthorn and Sydney (a flag in 2013 and/or 2019 would have made this look a lot better which I definitely acknowledge is a failure on our part).

The only father-son on our list besides Hawkins is Jed Bews and Oscar Brownless - I hardly think those two are the difference between Top 2 and Bottom 4. Hawkins will hurt, but bottom 4 is wishful thinking, and he has at least 2 years left.

We also have three 1st rounders this year and are currently sitting 2nd. Selwood isn't currently playing, and Ablett isn't really needed. We've also never finished lower than 12th since the VFL became the AFL - it's just not in our dna.

I reckon you'll be bottom 4 before we are, and you can bookmark that.
is Gary Ablett not on your list anymore?
 

iameviljez

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Stewert = I never said he was well known, I said he was pumped up by Scarlet and led directly to your recuiters by Scarlett.

Kelly - WC were pissed you took Kelly. He was a gun in Perth. They were about to select him but you got in first. They took one flying Ryan instead. Most clubs would have taken Kelly in the 20's

Menegola = he was on two lists before you. He can't be called an unkown talent. We offered him a contract but couldn't offer him enough so he left to St Kilda where they temporarily killed his career like they do. And first hand reports say "we LOVED him".

You got lucky with Strewart and Kelly. Menengola was a good investment that it has taken a few years for you to collect on... similar to a Ricky Henderson type.
We didn't get lucky, we were good. Stewart came through our VFL team and didn't dominate straightaway, and other clubs still had every chance to draft him. It's funny just how many teams claim they would have drafted Kelly in the 20s, of course - but they didn't... and he came in and played well beyond the pick we originally paid for him.

Getting Hawkins as a father/son was lucky, as he was a junior star, but in terms of player development, you make your own luck.
 

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Shadow89

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is Gary Ablett not on your list anymore?
Lol I don't even count him this year, as he's barely been a factor at all and will retire at the end of the year. Handy addition, but haven't lost anything with him out. We also missed 7 years of his best, and he wasn't a factor in our rebuild, so don't really count him in our current list moving forward.
 

RUNVS

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The 2004 draft is what help setup Hawthorn for what they became where they had 3 picks in the top 10 and nailed all of them with Roughead, Franklin and Lewis.

However, people forget I think that Hawthorn had the nucleus of their 2008 premiership team already at the club. They had

Bateman
Crawford
Hodge
Sewell
Brown
Mitchell
Croad
Williams

all of whom were either good to very good players, or would become good to very good players.

Who are the players at Hawthorn right now who are either currently very good, and will be around in lets say 4 years, or young players who are not yet very good, but will likely become very good?
 

iameviljez

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The AFL traded Ablett to Geelong. It stuuuuuuuunk.

"Fans puzzled as Geelong get Pick 19 Motlop"

And the AFL also effectively handed Pick 19 to Gold Coast. Yeah, I didn't like it either.
 

Shadow89

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Stewert = I never said he was well known, I said he was pumped up by Scarlet and led directly to your recuiters by Scarlett.

Kelly - WC were pissed you took Kelly. He was a gun in Perth. They were about to select him but you got in first. They took one flying Ryan instead. Most clubs would have taken Kelly in the 20's

Menegola = he was on two lists before you. He can't be called an unkown talent. We offered him a contract but couldn't offer him enough so he left to St Kilda where they temporarily killed his career like they do. And first hand reports say "we LOVED him".

You got lucky with Strewart and Kelly. Menengola was a good investment that it has taken a few years for you to collect on... similar to a Ricky Henderson type.
So we also got lucky with Bews, Kolo, Henry, Parfitt, Clark, Guthrie, Miers, Blicavs, Narkle, Fogarty, O'Connor, Ratugolea, Close etc. That wasn't astute drafting or development?

Just because you guys are in a hole now, don't take out your frustrations on us lol. Half of our Best 22 is from 2016 onwards, and a lot of players have made big strides in a short amount of time. We still have 3 first rounders this year, De Koning and Stephens from last year, and some talented youngsters in Kreuger, Kennerley, Okunbor and even Cockatoo (if he ever gets on the park).

We have rebuilt our entire list, whilst remaining competitive and delisting our stars - Johnson, Stokes, Bartel, Enright, J. Kelly, Mackie, since 2015 - the year you guys won your last flag and the year we finished 9th and started again with Danger coming in.

You chose to top up with players like Wingard, O'Meara, Mitchell, Scully, Patton etc. on the basis that your list was still strong - even though you gave away all your draft picks. The highest picks we gave away were 9 for Danger, and 17 for Henderson. This is while we also took picks to the draft and brought in a few mid tier players in areas of need - Tuohy, Dahl and Rohan - for not much draft wise. Big difference between our strategy and yours.

P.S. Menegola went to Freo, not St Kilda.
 
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Shadow89

Norm Smith Medallist
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The 2004 draft is what help setup Hawthorn for what they became where they had 3 picks in the top 10 and nailed all of them with Roughead, Franklin and Lewis.

However, people forget I think that Hawthorn had the nucleus of their 2008 premiership team already at the club. They had

Bateman
Crawford
Hodge
Sewell
Brown
Mitchell
Croad
Williams

all of whom were either good to very good players, or would become good to very good players.

Who are the players at Hawthorn right now who are either currently very good, and will be around in lets say 4 years, or young players who are not yet very good, but will likely become very good?
Sicily
Hardwick
Worpel
Mitchell
O'Meara
Day
Impey
Wingard
Scrimshaw

Can only see Sicily and Mitchell and maybe Day being even close to some of those names above. Others, all solid players, but not in the 'star' bracket most of the above are
 

Seeds

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In fairness to Hawthorn, their obvious weakness now is their forward line, and I think they regarded themselves as very good things to land Tom Lynch. If they'd managed that, it would have been a bit of a team-changer.
They landed scully, omeara, mitchell, wingard and patton. Sure if they landed all the gun players in the comp they might make the finals.
 

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