Hawthorn - 20 flags by 2050

Who's closer to a flag, Geelong or Hawthorn?

  • Hawthorn

    Votes: 141 56.4%
  • Geelong

    Votes: 109 43.6%

  • Total voters
    250

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Deadly Assassin

Debutant
Aug 25, 2013
100
124
AFL Club
Collingwood
You mean the club that’s won like 2 flags in 60 years or so? I’d be tipping Hawthorn, Richmond and Carlton all hitting 20 before you or Essendon.
Who knows what will happen in 30 years but the facts are.

We're best positioned to take back our place as leader of the premiership tally, which we held for 60 years, solely (unlike Carlton and Essendon who have had to share the mantle for 20 years and counting).

Carlton and Essendon are cheating basket cases.
Hawthorn and Richmond are too far behind to even be in the conversation.
 

Virus

Amazing
Oct 24, 2020
165
276
AFL Club
Geelong
Who knows what will happen in 30 years but the facts are.

We're best positioned to take back our place as leader of the premiership tally, which we held for 60 years, solely (unlike Carlton and Essendon who have had to share the mantle for 20 years and counting).

Carlton and Essendon are cheating basket cases.
Hawthorn and Richmond are too far behind to even be in the conversation.
Not likely with Eddie going to be there until he’s a geriatric. Collingwood is the North Korea of the AFL.

WC will hit 15 flags before most sides with a head start hit 20.
 

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Roddy

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 10, 2006
10,082
10,100
M-Town
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Aussie Cricket team.
7 flags in the next 30 years. If there's a club in the league that could do it, it's the club that's won at least one flag every calendar decade since the 50s.

Probably not the club that's won 3 since 1963. Or the one that's won 3 since 1980, even though the planets have aligned for them in recent years. And certainly not the club who's won 2 since 1958....
 

PhatBoy

Brownlow Medallist
May 5, 2016
22,766
24,336
AFL Club
Geelong
7 flags in the next 30 years. If there's a club in the league that could do it, it's the club that's won at least one flag every calendar decade since the 50s.

Probably not the club that's won 3 since 1963. Or the one that's won 3 since 1980, even though the planets have aligned for them in recent years. And certainly not the club who's won 2 since 1958....

Fun fact:

The team that is about to run out for Geelong in 2021 has no players from 1964-2006 and when they aim to hit a target in their forward 50, their boot isn't actually aware of a previous 44 year drought that had nothing to do with them.

Hard to believe I know
 

PJays

Senior List
Nov 2, 2020
237
312
AFL Club
St Kilda
West Coast would be my pick to win the most premierships over the next 30 years.

4 reasons:

They're a powerful club with huge financial resources. They have cash to pour into their facilities, travel and accommodation, always paying 100% of the salary cap and using all list spots to maximum advantage. Anything that could give their team a small advantage.

This could be coincidence but it’s the powerful clubs who have won most flags- even in this era of equalization- Richmond, Hawthorn, Collingwood and West Coast. Smaller clubs like Melbourne, Bulldogs, St Kilda, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Gold Coast and GWS have typically failed, even when going deep into the finals. St Kilda was unlucky not to win one, and the Bulldogs did snatch an unlikely one, but overwhelmingly it’s been the power clubs taking silverware. And West Coast is the most powerful of them all.


Home ground advantage. Not on Grand Final day, but they get as many true home games than any other team. (Melbourne clubs have fewer true home games and lots of neutral games).

They also get as many true away games as any other club. But, their home ground advantage is more impressive because of the combination of 1. Crowd and 2. Exclusive ground use. Consider say, West Coast vs Western Bulldogs. If West Coast come to Marvel Stadium, they play in front of 25,000 people at a ground where West Coast plays 3 or 4 times a year. If Dogs go to Perth, they play in front of 50,000 and it might be their only game there all year. That’s comparatively a huge advantage to West Coast.


Talent pool. Perth is a large, AFL loving city with only two clubs. A larger talent pool relative to the number of spots on AFL lists. Many players who will request a trade home during their careers, and West Coast gets the best look at WAFL players.

This works both ways, eg Judd requesting a trade home. But overall it’s a bigger advantage than disadvantage.


History. West Coast has risen to the top more consistently than any other club over the past 30 years. (By top I mean, a serious premiership chance, a GF birth). Malthouse era, Worsfold era, Simpson era. Multiple GF’s and at least one flag every time. Completely different teams and coaches.

Historical performance doesn’t necessarily mean anything, but perhaps this has been helped by the combination of my first 3 reasons above. 23 finals births in 30 years.
 

NetworkNerd

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 6, 2011
10,405
17,463
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
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AFL Member so all clubs I guess.
30 years is a long time. Anything can happen
30 years ago the hawks had just come off 7 GF in a row and who would have though the 17 years of pain that would soon hit the club.
 

Xtreme

Hall of Famer
Jul 21, 2006
37,694
30,497
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Easily done, Clarko will be the greatest coach of all time adding another 7 flags to his resume.

Geelong definitely closer to a flag than Hawthorn. By a long way.

The boys in black and white will reach 20 flags before anyone else, though.
In reality Geelong were just as close as Hawthorn were in 2020, everyone knew that if they ran into Richmond in the finals, it would be good night nurse for them!
It just so happened that they had to beat them in the grand final to hold the cup aloft. And they couldn't compete with the mighty tigers!
 

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Barry_Badrinath

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 23, 2011
18,692
60,379
Bathing in Premiership Glory
AFL Club
Richmond
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Home Finals at the MCG
Who knows what will happen in 30 years but the facts are.

We're best positioned to take back our place as leader of the premiership tally, which we held for 60 years, solely (unlike Carlton and Essendon who have had to share the mantle for 20 years and counting).

Carlton and Essendon are cheating basket cases.
Hawthorn and Richmond are too far behind to even be in the conversation.
That you Adam?
 

Deadly Assassin

Debutant
Aug 25, 2013
100
124
AFL Club
Collingwood
7 flags in the next 30 years. If there's a club in the league that could do it, it's the club that's won at least one flag every calendar decade since the 50s.

Probably not the club that's won 3 since 1963. Or the one that's won 3 since 1980, even though the planets have aligned for them in recent years. And certainly not the club who's won 2 since 1958....
I certainly won't be hedging my bets on the club that hasn't won a single final since 2015, and I'm not talking about Fremantle.
 

Captain_Bender

Premiership Player
May 21, 2015
3,575
5,090
AFL Club
Richmond
7 flags in the next 30 years. If there's a club in the league that could do it, it's the club that's won at least one flag every calendar decade since the 50s.

Probably not the club that's won 3 since 1963. Or the one that's won 3 since 1980, even though the planets have aligned for them in recent years. And certainly not the club who's won 2 since 1958....
Silly little Hawk Minnow:drunk:
 

Rimmer

Club Legend
May 7, 2008
1,533
1,924
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
As Jeff is unlikely to be around in 2050 he is welcome to pee into the wind and nobody will get to call his bluff. He may be right, who knows, but if he is trying to trump Brendan Gale it might help if he actually had a plan as Gale did, however unlikely that Richmond's goal was.
 

Vindicater

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 16, 2013
8,461
10,578
AFL Club
Essendon
I remember when Connor Downie was going to be a top five draft pick and future premiership captain.

Those were the days.
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
22,030
28,485
Melbourne
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Richmond
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7 flags in the next 30 years. If there's a club in the league that could do it, it's the club that's won at least one flag every calendar decade since the 50s.

Probably not the club that's won 3 since 1963. Or the one that's won 3 since 1980, even though the planets have aligned for them in recent years. And certainly not the club who's won 2 since 1958....
Hawks could do it, its difficult but not unachievable.

But to think that the success of clubs 40 years ago is relevant to their chances now or over the next 40 years is frankly a stupid statement. It has no impact. Get the house in order and go from there, that's what Richmond did and its completely irrelevant now how they performed from 1981-2016. Ditto Collingwood or Essendon or Carlton or any other side.

It works the other way too, just because Hawthorn won a lot of flags in a short period in the past, doesn't mean they are more likely than the others listed over the next 30, its an even game.
 

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