Certified Legendary Thread Hawthorn 2017 1st Round Pick Watch

[Glen Buterol]

The longer this season goes on without Fyfe signing, the more scared I am that we're going to get him & he'll cost us our 2x 1sts after Freo match....

Pessimistic campaigner I am

Surely Fyfe is all about the money. If Freo match the offer he re-signs?

 

[Keg on legs]

I've been thinking, sadly, deeply about this for the last few weeks. I wasn't one that was so convinced that it was certainly a very very high pick as some. Now it's hard to see it being worse than 4. They've had a really soft draw and it now becomes tough. So any recovery is shot.

The only one that they will definitely beat home is Brisbane. But I think there is a reasonable chance they still get past GC and Carlton. GC are fragile and could well lose a big run of games. Carlton may start to feel the heat from as soon as now with some much a young group. One benefit for them is the capacity to bring in some experience.

Very hard to see how they get past others. But I'm definitely barracking for all of them! Pies at worst will probably throw in the odd big effort game and will take a couple of the easy beats. I doubt Hawthorn gets beyond 7 wins. I'd be surprised if Collingwood can't get to 7. I think North has a bit going for it. They're not finals bound, but likewise can't see less than 7 wins. The horse has bolted on Richmond, Melbourne and Saints. And I continue to barrack for all of them!

I just did a quick (what is now becoming a weekly ritual) ladder predictor on the afl site.

I was being pretty generous I think, coz I would rather expect pick 9 and get pick 4 than the other way around.

I had hawks winning 3 more games. They are against the suns, pies and blues. That had them finishing 15th and us getting pick 4. I also had them 2 games behind 14th.

Sadly, I also had us finishing 9th, one game behind sydney. Damn this weeks loss could be costly!

Not accounting for %ages I had the ladder as

Ade
GWS
Geelong
Bulldogs
West coast
Freo
Port
Sydney

Saints
Essendon
Rich
Melb
Coll
North
Hawks
Gold coast
Carl
Bris

I'm sure there will be some upsets along the way and I won't even get half the tips right, but I really struggle to see how they win even 5 more

 

[dewah07]

That's a mark rayner took last year. Shows his ability as an athlete

i could show you of a mark sumner took at st.bedes that is 20x better than that

 

[Rors]

i could show you of a mark sumner took at st.bedes that is 20x better than that

Packet of chips for Balic at season's end?

Would probably get it done

 

[dewah07]

Packet of chips for Balic at season's end?

Would probably get it done

top3 talent in his draft talent for a 40ish-75 pick?

sign me up

 

[Sir Skid]

top3 talent in his draft talent for a 40ish-75 pick?

sign me up

Predictable

 

[Periphery]

The longer this season goes on without Fyfe signing, the more scared I am that we're going to get him & he'll cost us our 2x 1sts after Freo match....

Pessimistic campaigner I am

Na mate, we'll get Fyfe and Martin as FAs, trade our first pick for Lever and then use the Hawks pick on the next Bont.

 

[saintrob]

 

[St Neil]

The longer this season goes on without Fyfe signing, the more scared I am that we're going to get him & he'll cost us our 2x 1sts after Freo match....

Pessimistic campaigner I am

If Freo match we may decide not to trade and leave them with a mess of a salary cap. Maybe Fyfe is aware of this and is in a no lose position, he gets a big deal regardless of what happens.

Matching free agency bids is a double edged sword. The intended club is forced into a trade if they want the player, but if they back away or won't trade the matching club can find themselves railroaded with a chunk of their salary cap gone.

If Fyfe wants to leave and Freo are determined to match the bid they would need to be very sure the intended club is prepared to trade for him. They could be left high and dry.

There appears to be a bit bubbling away that we don't know about. Our club is linked to various players from various clubs. Some of it is probably true and some is probably rubbish. But we may be one of those clubs whose trading strategy is very difficult to read.

 

[Keg on legs]

If Freo match we may decide not to trade and leave them with a mess of a salary cap. Maybe Fyfe is aware of this and is in a no lose position, he gets a big deal regardless of what happens.

Matching free agency bids is a double edged sword. The intended club is forced into a trade if they want the player, but if they back away or won't trade the matching club can find themselves railroaded with a chunk of their salary cap gone.

If Fyfe wants to leave and Freo are determined to match the bid they would need to be very sure the intended club is prepared to trade for him. They could be left high and dry.

There appears to be a bit bubbling away that we don't know about. Our club is linked to various players from various clubs. Some of it is probably true and some is probably rubbish. But we may be one of those clubs whose trading strategy is very difficult to read.

I doubt we would back away if a club matched it. It wouldn't send a very good message out to players.

Wouldn't look good if we wooed a club captain into agreeing to leave his club, but when we couldn't get him for free we left him high and dry and to go back to his club with his tail between his legs.

No matter that he gets the coin he wants. I just don't think it'd be a good look for us. Might also discourage others from wanting to jump ship to us in case the same thing happened to them

 

[sauce_head]

Surely Fyfe is all about the money. If Freo match the offer he re-signs?

Agree. Don't use picks on free agents. Offer them cash and if they come, good it's a bonus, and if not, then go to the draft with the picks we have. We possibly CAN have it all with front loaded contracts to keep everybody together as they develop with a couple of gun free agents thrown in as well.

 

[sauce_head]

I doubt we would back away if a club matched it. It wouldn't send a very good message out to players.

Wouldn't look good if we wooed a club captain into agreeing to leave his club, but when we couldn't get him for free we left him high and dry and to go back to his club with his tail between his legs.

No matter that he gets the coin he wants. I just don't think it'd be a good look for us. Might also discourage others from wanting to jump ship to us in case the same thing happened to them

That's why it's done confidentially. Sort of like it already is being done.

 

[Joffaboy]

Packet of chips for Balic at season's end?

Would probably get it done

They will match with a packet of cheezels

 

[L_W_P]

I doubt we would back away if a club matched it. It wouldn't send a very good message out to players.

Wouldn't look good if we wooed a club captain into agreeing to leave his club, but when we couldn't get him for free we left him high and dry and to go back to his club with his tail between his legs.

No matter that he gets the coin he wants. I just don't think it'd be a good look for us. Might also discourage others from wanting to jump ship to us in case the same thing happened to them

Not quite how the RFA process works.

We offer Fyfe a contract.
He agrees to terms
Fremantle then have 3 days to match that offer or Fyfe is transferred to the Saints.
If Freo do not match they may get a compensation pick.
If Fremantle DO match then Fyfe stays at Fremantle.

There is no 'Match and Trade' option.

The Dangerfield trade was done because Adelaide, very publicly, said they would match the Geelong deal as it wasn't out of the ball park of reason. They let Danger go home and negotiated a better compensation than the AFL would have provided.

The only reason we would trade with Freo for Fyfe is if we genuinly believe they will match whatever offer we put in front of Nat. If we go to him with 6 years at 1.5 a year then Freo might well match it but we could certainly be justified in thinking they won't.

 

[Moorabbin Ghost]

Not quite how the RFA process works.

We offer Fyfe a contract.
He agrees to terms
Fremantle then have 3 days to match that offer or Fyfe is transferred to the Saints.
If Freo do not match they may get a compensation pick.
If Fremantle DO match then Fyfe stays at Fremantle.

There is no 'Match and Trade' option.

The Dangerfield trade was done because Adelaide, very publicly, said they would match the Geelong deal as it wasn't out of the ball park of reason. They let Danger go home and negotiated a better compensation than the AFL would have provided.

The only reason we would trade with Freo for Fyfe is if we genuinly believe they will match whatever offer we put in front of Nat. If we go to him with 6 years at 1.5 a year then Freo might well match it but we could certainly be justified in thinking they won't.

If Freo match and Fyfe declines their contract then they either trade him, delist him (becomes FA) or let him delist himself (draft).
A club can match a FA bid but they still have to then get the player to sign the contract.

 

[L_W_P]

If Freo match and Fyfe declines their contract then they either trade him, delist him (becomes FA) or let him delist himself (draft).
A club can match a FA bid but they still have to then get the player to sign the contract.

http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency

"That is, if the current club can ‘match’ the offer from a suitor club, the player must stay or enter the draft."

To me that reads that they don't get the option of trading him after the offer is matched.

So they either match the offer and pay mega bucks for someone that has said wants to leave, don't match the offer and get AFL compo or force him into the draft and get nothing in return at all.

 

[Moorabbin Ghost]

http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency

"That is, if the current club can ‘match’ the offer from a suitor club, the player must stay or enter the draft."

To me that reads that they don't get the option of trading him after the offer is matched.

So they either match the offer and pay mega bucks for someone that has said wants to leave, don't match the offer and get AFL compo or force him into the draft and get nothing in return at all.

That's not the way I understand it. Even though the player knocks back the matched offer they are still contracted until the end of that month (October) so therefore can be traded just like any player that is completing a contract on October 31.

 

[Keg on legs]

Whatever the case is, I think if a player agreed to leave the club just has to get it done. And history would say that it always eventuates.

It's up to the club offering the coin to make sure it's the right offer. Right now tho, I'm not sure $1.5m is right for fyfe.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency

"That is, if the current club can ‘match’ the offer from a suitor club, the player must stay or enter the draft."

To me that reads that they don't get the option of trading him after the offer is matched.

So they either match the offer and pay mega bucks for someone that has said wants to leave, don't match the offer and get AFL compo or force him into the draft and get nothing in return at all.

Lyon has form.

 

[Mikka84]

carlton arnt terrible at all, i rate their defence and execution, can really annoy the teams who wanna play fast and manic footy. i reckon their better than a lot think

Not a great list at all. But coached very well for the cattle they have. I'm of the belief they'll drop off late year. Hard to maintain the defensive preasure for a young side.

 

[saintrob]

Hereeees Zak (not my best photoshop)

 

[dewah07]

Get cam rayner in. Will be the best in the draft and has the body to have an impact straight away! Deadset gun

Rayner is a agile medium fwd that can take a hanger & that can run thru the midfield. Very different type of player to Brayshaw & Dunstan. A bit of Fyfe about him maybe?

Dustin Martin ran 14.1 beep at the national combine - Rayner ran 11.10 at TAC Cup testing 2017.

11.10 is not a mid, how the hell does he get away with this terrible endurance and still dominate that people say he does

 

[plugger66]

i could show you of a mark sumner took at st.bedes that is 20x better than that

That was a great mark but look up Seb Gotch at Caulfield. One of the best I have ever seen especially from a midget.

 

[dewah07]

That was a great mark but look up Seb Gotch at Caulfield. One of the best I have ever seen especially from a midget.

meh probably got poached like every caufy campaigner

 

[plugger66]

meh probably got poached like every caufy campaigner

I don't even understand that post.