Club Focus Hawthorn 2021 - Lynch, Ward, Butler, MacDonald, Serong

[1972championsofaust]

Don't think they're not going to do that..They know what they have in Toranto. He's invested, and he's a very good player. Callaghan has elite ability but he is still a bit of an unknown and isn't someone that helps them win now (unlike Toranto). The GWS recruiter has said he's prioritizing what he has (Bruhn, Toranto etc)...I'm pretty convinced they're happy to move their pick but they want a first and future first. I think they'll concede and accept GC pick 3 and a future 2nd f in the knowledge they'll get Andrew and get something on top. Don't think Crows or Hawks will offer their future first. GC def into Callaghan, and Gibcus looks their fall back option I'd say if GWS don't trade back or trade back to someone else.

Noted in Callaghan’s latest interview with the Hawks, he stated he would like to stay in Victoria but reluctantly knows he may not have a choice where he plays!!!!

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Noted in Callaghan’s latest interview with the Hawks, he stated he would like to stay in Victoria but reluctantly knows he may not have a choice where he plays!!!!

Giants and Suns have to take that risk of him doing a Cerra or Gunston in 2 years time.

 

[juss]

That is a horrible deal for us.

Not necessarily, it's basically just speculating on the Bombers.

They look to be on the improve, but you couldn't rule them out having a top 10 pick either.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Not necessarily, it's basically just speculating on the Bombers.

They look to be on the improve, but you couldn't rule them out having a top 10 pick either.

They defeated 1 side in the top 8 last year. Reckon they’re going to get a tougher draw and plateau or go backwards slightly.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Keystone agony I should add, much like Hawks, you’ve got a few players who should return to play more games in 2022 that should make you better.

 

[Keystone agony]

Keystone agony I should add, much like Hawks, you’ve got a few players who should return to play more games in 2022 that should make you better.

Yeh on one hand we had a big part of our midfield miss most of the year Draper, Shiel, Caldwell, Langford and Mcgrath missed alot of footy.

Still a very young side most should only be improving. I think we played in front of a home crowd less than any club in the past 2 years so the least HG advantage

Then on the other hand i question whether we got an uptick from a new coach (does happen more often than not and i know he was there previousily), how much better can a Stringer be?... Not much, and as you said we had a soft draw.

I think we have a range from finishing 6th - 15th

 

[Books]

My expectation is that GWS will bid on both Darcy's and Darcy. This will improve their own 4th round picks giving them more points for Fahey. No inside info, it just makes sense for them to do this.

Once those bids are in, my hope is that Hawthorn might then get active. Trade our pick 21 to the Dogs for a future 1st. The Doggies would not do that trade now but after matching the bid with later picks, they might be keen.

Then we could trade pick 5 plus the Dogs F1 for pick 2. Giants get their future 1st. We get Callaghan, effectively for 5 and 21. GWS would not do that deal but this way it could work.

Plus we still have a full quota of future picks so we could trade back in to this year if we wanted to.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

My expectation is that GWS will bid on both Darcy's and Darcy. This will improve their own 4th round picks giving them more points for Fahey. No inside info, it just makes sense for them to do this.

Once those bids are in, my hope is that Hawthorn might then get active. Trade our pick 21 to the Dogs for a future 1st. The Doggies would not do that trade now but after matching the bid with later picks, they might be keen.

Then we could trade pick 5 plus the Dogs F1 for pick 2. Giants get their future 1st. We get Callaghan, effectively for 5 and 21. GWS would not do that deal but this way it could work.

Plus we still have a full quota of future picks so we could trade back in to this year if we wanted to.

Gws would ask for 5 and your FR1 not an FR1 tied to a team that will likely finish top 4.

 

[TylerDurden]

Gws would ask for 5 and your FR1 not an FR1 tied to a team that will likely finish top 4.

No chance we do that for a 3 pick upgrade. None.

 

[Prochard123]

No chance we do that for a 3 pick upgrade. None.

There is a monumental difference between pick 2 and pick 5. The player you select at pick 5 could be easily be available at pick 17 if you were to go in a different direction. From the 5 - 20 range it's a bunch of solid but unexceptional midfielders with different traits and no separation in actual ability.

Outside the top 4/5 - (JHF, Daicos, Darcy, Callaghan, Andrew) the quality drops substantially.

I would hate to have pick 4 or pick 5 this year, terrible value for money.

 

[RobJD]

I am hoping that we may offer it, along with pick 59, to the Dogs for their pick 23, before it gets chewed up in the Darcy bid.

Likely that the Dogs will need more than the points for Pick 59 to cover Darcy

 

[daniel23]

There is a monumental difference between pick 2 and pick 5. The player you select at pick 5 could be easily be available at pick 17 if you were to go in a different direction. From the 5 - 20 range it's a bunch of solid but unexceptional midfielders with different traits and no separation in actual ability.

Outside the top 4/5 - (JHF, Daicos, Darcy, Callaghan, Andrew) the quality drops substantially.

I would hate to have pick 4 or pick 5 this year, terrible value for money.

And you've based this off watching how many games of 18's footy over the last couple years ? There wouldn't be one club that would think that way.

 

[Prochard123]

And you've based this off watching how many games of 18's footy over the last couple years ? There wouldn't be one club that would think that way.

Well considering the massive premium placed on pick 2, it's clear that many clubs think this way LOL.

There's a HUGE gap in quality from the top 4/5 to the next bests.

 

[Slysh]

There is a monumental difference between pick 2 and pick 5. The player you select at pick 5 could be easily be available at pick 17 if you were to go in a different direction. From the 5 - 20 range it's a bunch of solid but unexceptional midfielders with different traits and no separation in actual ability.

Outside the top 4/5 - (JHF, Daicos, Darcy, Callaghan, Andrew) the quality drops substantially.

I would hate to have pick 4 or pick 5 this year, terrible value for money.

It’s an even draft but this is way over the top, you are not getting Ward for example at 17.

 

[Prochard123]

It’s an even draft but this is way over the top, you are not getting Ward for example at 17.

Perhaps slightly exaggerated on the 5 - 20 = identical part.

But the main point is the draft falls off RAPIDLY after the first 4/5 picks.

Yes you're not getting Ward at 17 for example, but Ward won't have any meaningful separation compared to the midfielder that does get picked in that range.

 

[Prochard123]

It’s an even draft but this is way over the top, you are not getting Ward for example at 17.

If anything I'd trade Pick 5 for Pick 13 + GWS 2022 1st.

Pick 5 has more value to a club like GWS who prefers quality/list needs over other clubs that are not as blessed with 1st rounders.

GWS would be happy to take Callaghan with pick 2, and Andrew/Gibcus at 5.

Like I said before, every chance the midfielder at 13 will be just as good as that guy at 5, and you would gain an additional future 1st with this deal.

 

[hawkman]

If anything I'd trade Pick 5 for Pick 13 + GWS 2022 1st.

Pick 5 has more value to a club like GWS who prefers quality/list needs over other clubs that are not as blessed with 1st rounders.

GWS would be happy to take Callaghan with pick 2, and Andrew/Gibcus at 5.

Like I said before, every chance the midfielder at 13 will be just as good as that guy at 5, and you would gain an additional future 1st with this deal.

Haha pick 2 is worth pick 5 and Future 1st

While our pick 5 is worth 13 and a GWS Future 1st

Hawthorn would be absolutely crazy to do either of those deals. I can understand the under the argument pick could be worth potentially pick 5 and say pick 7. But to then to say pick 5 is worth 2 picks in the likely the mid teens is just crazy

 

[Prochard123]

Haha pick 2 is worth pick 5 and Future 1st

While our pick 5 is worth 13 and a GWS Future 1st

Hawthorn would be absolutely crazy to do either of those deals. I can understand the under the argument pick could be worth potentially pick 5 and say pick 7. But to then to say pick 5 is worth 2 picks in the likely the mid teens is just crazy

Yes...like I have said many, many times...because pick 5 isn't actually worth a whole lot since you won't have access to any of the top players...if anything GWS shouldn't be doing the 2nd deal.

 

[hawkman]

Yes...like I have said many, many times...because pick 5 isn't actually worth a whole lot since you won't have access to any of the top players...if anything GWS shouldn't be doing the 2nd deal.

From everything i have seen most seem to have a consensus of a clear top 5 mids (including Rachelle and excluding Daicos) and then it gets jumbled up after that. Pick 5 will get one of them. After that there seems to more of a mix, if we had pick 7 or 8(pre bidding) i would be more inclined to agree with you.

 

[HeHateMe]

Yes...like I have said many, many times...because pick 5 isn't actually worth a whole lot since you won't have access to any of the top players...if anything GWS shouldn't be doing the 2nd deal.

Well you're going to be pleased then. GWS won't be doing any of those deals.

 

[Prochard123]

Well you're going to be pleased then. GWS won't be doing any of those deals.

It's fine I don't really care what GWS does.

Adamant that they have peaked.

Have relied on the sheer volume of AFL subsidies all this time, and even in that regard they are diminishing in numbers.

Now we have a highly imbalanced list, a crippled salary cap and a severe lack of depth to support a premiership run.

If you look at their younger players outside their best 22 they are actually running very thin. Because of that they are literally scraping the bottom of the barrel these days with Hogan (who has actually been decent), Brander to fill the massive hole Cameron left behind.

Expecting them to hover in the 5 - 9 range for the years to become, before having a slow but consistent decline into the next Gold Coast.

 

[HeHateMe]

It's fine I don't really care what GWS does.

Adamant that they have peaked.

Have relied on the sheer volume of AFL subsidies all this time, and even in that regard they are diminishing in numbers.

Now we have a highly imbalanced list, a crippled salary cap and a severe lack of depth to support a premiership run.

If you look at their younger players outside their best 22 they are actually running very thin. Because of that they are literally scraping the bottom of the barrel these days with Hogan (who has actually been decent), Brander to fill the massive hole Cameron left behind.

Expecting them to hover in the 5 - 9 range for the years to become, before having a slow but consistent decline into the next Gold Coast.

You seem to have a passionate opinion I'll give you that.

 

[Prochard123]

You seem to have a passionate opinion I'll give you that.

I wouldn't exactly call it passionate, but it is an objective opinion I'll give you that

 

[HeHateMe]

I wouldn't exactly call it passionate, but it is an objective opinion I'll give you that

Yeah I wouldn't call it that either.....

Anyway back on topic. I'm hoping Adelaide pass on Rachele but would be happy with one of Mac or Erasmus if he's gone.

 

[1972championsofaust]

There is a monumental difference between pick 2 and pick 5. The player you select at pick 5 could be easily be available at pick 17 if you were to go in a different direction. From the 5 - 20 range it's a bunch of solid but unexceptional midfielders with different traits and no separation in actual ability.

Outside the top 4/5 - (JHF, Daicos, Darcy, Callaghan, Andrew) the quality drops substantially.

I would hate to have pick 4 or pick 5 this year, terrible value for money.

Josh Rachele says f**k you.... I’m a bargain at pick 3-7!
No way I get past pick 6 or 7!