Hawthorn and Brisbane finals quirk

[Del239335]

12 of the last 25 Grand Finals have featured either Hawthorn or Brisbane, yet the two sides have never met each other in a final which is quite remarkable tbh.

Could this be the year where we see Hawthorn and Brisbane meet each other in a final for the first time?

 

[Bay53]

it is possible.

 

[010203]

Hawthorn missed the finals just once in the 2007-16 period. That year was 2009, the only year the Lions made finals in that particular time period.

In Brisbane's current run of 7 straight years of making finals, Hawthorn missed finals in all bar the first 5.

I believe the 2 clubs have been involved in the same finals series 4 times this century- 2000, 2001, 2024 and 2025. I reckon the 2 clubs might meet in a prelim this year.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Really is a small set of clubs that dominate GF day.

Lions, Hawks, Cats, Eagles, Swans and Magpies. 1/3 of the teams.
28 Grand Finals featuring one of them since AFL era (1990). Combined 23 premierships.

 

[Bay53]

Really is a small set of clubs that dominate GF day.

Lions, Hawks, Cats, Eagles, Swans and Magpies. 1/3 of the teams.
28 Grand Finals featuring one of them since AFL era (1990). Combined 23 premierships.

The era from 1967-1989 had just four teams win premierships.

 

[Dan26]

Hawthorn OR Collingwood have played in 28 of the last 55 Grand Finals.

Yet they have never met each other in any of those Grand Finals. (or any Grand Final ever for that matter)

 

[Tall poppy Syndrome]

The era from 1967-1989 had just four teams win premierships.

5 isn’t it?

Richmond, Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, North.

 

[Bay53]

5 isn’t it?

Richmond, Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, North.

Sorry, it is five. Four up to 1983. You can then add Collingwood as a team who made a lot of grand finals, but the other 6 didn’t get a look in under zoning.

Geelong and St Kilda made grand finals very early in that period, based on the team they had pre 1967 but until Melbourne in 1987, no one else even made a GF.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Hawthorn missed the finals just once in the 2007-16 period. That year was 2009, the only year the Lions made finals in that particular time period.

In Brisbane's current run of 7 straight years of making finals, Hawthorn missed finals in all bar the first 5.

I believe the 2 clubs have been involved in the same finals series 4 times this century- 2000, 2001, 2024 and 2025. I reckon the 2 clubs might meet in a prelim this year.

That was my first thought: that besides the Hawks recent resurgence coinciding with the Lions going B2B, it feels like it's generally been the historic Melbourne/Richmond thing: when one's good, the other generally hasn't been.

 

[MadMaxx]

Hawthorn OR Collingwood have played in 28 of the last 55 Grand Finals.

Yet they have never met each other in any of those Grand Finals. (or any Grand Final ever for that matter)

Barely any finals whatsoever. Only once in the last 45 years (**** You Luke Ball!)

• 1974 Semi Final - Hawthorn def. Collingwood
  1977 Semi Final - Collingwood def. Hawthorn
  1978 Qualifying Final - Hawthorn def. Collingwood
  2011 Preliminary Final - Collingwood def. Hawthorn
  2012 Qualifying Final - Hawthorn def. Collingwood

Given the powerful Finals history of both clubs since 1960, it is a statistical anomaly
(Edited, Trusted AI to Collate, thanks for the corrections below)

 

[Jane Doe]

Barely any finals whatsoever. Only once in the last 45 years (**** You Luke Ball!)

• 1974 Elimination Final – Collingwood def Hawthorn
• 1977 Qualifying Final – Collingwood def Hawthorn
• 1978 Second Semi Final – Hawthorn def Collingwood
• 1981 Qualifying Final – Collingwood def Hawthorn
• 2011 Elimination Final – Hawthorn def Collingwood

Given the powerful Finals history of both clubs since 1960, it is a statistical anomaly

We didnt make the finals in 1981

 

[tommyk72]

I'm not much of a statistician, but being "an anomaly" indicates it's quite weird. Interested in what the actual statistical probability of this happening is. For example, what's the probability given that we start with 16-18 clubs, and half of those get to finals, that then x and y happen. Is it an anomaly, or is it just really low probability anyway?

Also interested in "anomalies" of the opposite variety - clubs that have met each other many more times than expected.

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

Barely any finals whatsoever. Only once in the last 45 years (**** You Luke Ball!)

• 1974 Elimination Final – Collingwood def Hawthorn
• 1977 Qualifying Final – Collingwood def Hawthorn
• 1978 Second Semi Final – Hawthorn def Collingwood
• 1981 Qualifying Final – Collingwood def Hawthorn
• 2011 Elimination Final – Hawthorn def Collingwood

Given the powerful Finals history of both clubs since 1960, it is a statistical anomaly

This list is wrong.

1974 Semi Final - Hawthorn def. Collingwood
1977 Semi Final - Collingwood def. Hawthorn
1978 Qualifying Final - Hawthorn def. Collingwood
2011 Preliminary Final - Collingwood def. Hawthorn
2012 Qualifying Final - Hawthorn def. Collingwood

 

[Guardian Hawk]

12 of the last 25 Grand Finals have featured either Hawthorn or Brisbane, yet the two sides have never met each other in a final which is quite remarkable tbh.

Could this be the year where we see Hawthorn and Brisbane meet each other in a final for the first time?

IT's an interesting one. 38 seasons, no finals meetings yet. As the above poster said, interested to compare to probability.

I always found another similar example pretty remarkable. As mentioned above, only 5 teams won flags between 1967 - 89. For Hawthorn and Richmond, we won 14 flags between us in those years, inclusive of 1991! Yet, we never met in a single final until 2018 - 94 seasons after Hawthorn entered the competition. Now at over 100 years with both teams in the competition and (and an expanded finals), the QF of 2018 remains our only single finals meeting, with no further match ups in sight (given Richmond's rebuild).

 

[Gavin Excell]

Hawthorn actually playing in Brisbane is an anomaly
3 games in 17 years

 

[Dan26]

I'm not much of a statistician, but being "an anomaly" indicates it's quite weird. Interested in what the actual statistical probability of this happening is. For example, what's the probability given that we start with 16-18 clubs, and half of those get to finals, that then x and y happen. Is it an anomaly, or is it just really low probability anyway?

Also interested in "anomalies" of the opposite variety - clubs that have met each other many more times than expected.

How about this for a stat.

In an 18-team competition with a final-8 there should be an average of 5 teams winning a final in any given year. It can be as low as 4 (if both Qualifying Final losers go out in straight sets), or as high as 6 if both Qualifying Final losers bounce back in week 2. On average it should be 5.

That means there is a 27.77% chance of any given team winning at least one final in any season.

It also means there is a 72.2% chance of any given team NOT winning a final in any given season.

The probability of an event with a 13/18 (about 72.22%) success chance occurring 21 times in a row is approximately 0.001077, or 0.1077%. This equates to roughly 1 in 929.

So, Essendon has achieved a 1 in 929 event. If we don't win a final this year (22 years in a row) then the chances of that happening will be 1 in 1286.

 

[MadMaxx]

This list is wrong.

1974 Semi Final - Hawthorn def. Collingwood
1977 Semi Final - Collingwood def. Hawthorn
1978 Qualifying Final - Hawthorn def. Collingwood
2011 Preliminary Final - Collingwood def. Hawthorn
2012 Qualifying Final - Hawthorn def. Collingwood

Thanks, I trusted AI to put the list togther. Will update my post

 

[Scotland]

Footy is full of quirks.

We've played 55 finals and not played Freo, Gold Coast, St Kilda or Richmond in any of them. But we've played Collingwood 9 times.

We had a head start on Freo and they are historically unsuccessful but WC and Freo both finished top 4 in 2006 and 2015 and both finished 5th-8th in 2003 and 2012 but never crossed paths. St Kilda we easily could've met 2004-2006.

Richmond played finals 2015 and 2017-20, WC played finals 2015-2020. In that 6 year block the two teams only played each other 6 times and never met in the finals despite sharing 4 flags. For whatever reason we've played Richmond the fewest times of anyone in our history that has been in the comp the whole time we have. Shame because the H&A clashes in 2018 and 2019 were excellent.

 

[BigVic]

1974 Semi Final - Hawthorn def. Collingwood
1977 Semi Final - Collingwood def. Hawthorn
1978 Qualifying Final - Hawthorn def. Collingwood
2011 Preliminary Final - Collingwood def. Hawthorn
2012 Qualifying Final - Hawthorn def. Collingwood

We lost Grand Finals in 1977 and 2011. Richmond and Hawthorn only met in one final, that is in 2018 in the Qualifying Final