Hawthorn FC worst nightmare the 2017 Draft

Joined
Jun 19, 2007
Posts
32,645
Likes
34,707
Location
On the south side now
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
nil
Moderator #1,851
Gunston has been a better finals performer all up than Franklin. (Some would say by a fair margin) He's younger too. Yet everyone's fawns over buddy but we should trade gunners ?

Someone quoted our 2004 list and I did match up current players to the 2005 list

I have 8 better than then. 4 worse and four equal

I had 2017 Roughead eqivalent to 2005 Stewart dew who hadn't even been recruited yet
Another example I had 2017 Rioli equivalent to 2005 Crawford even though they are different types of player. These are the oldest 2017 players I included as still being relevant in a rebuild

The 2005 players who won a flag in 2008 were quite young and 2-3 years younger than my 2017 equivalents. They did however beat doggies saints and Geelong in the finals who were 2-4 advanced as lists on hawthorn

Biggest issue is the midfield and the game going forward might dictate a different style of midfield than the Mitchell-Lewis-Smith-Hill plus rotations thus far
I think the writing off of Gunston shows just how tragically short the average foot fan's attention span is.

We've also played him mostly out of the forward line this year. The only time he's played a full game up forward (last week) he kicked more than Tom Lynch and Peter Wright combined against a backline full of kids.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Joined
Sep 13, 2000
Posts
66,393
Likes
26,097
Location
Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Horks
Sicily has been dropped twice this year from a team that is 2nd last on the ladder. O'Brien has been on your list for almost 5 years and has done stuff all. Not a lot to write home about there.
I'm thinking at the same game milestones. He will be the equvalent of your guy Daniher - same age less senior game time
Whether you think that is nothing write home about is another thing
 
Joined
Sep 13, 2000
Posts
66,393
Likes
26,097
Location
Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Horks
That's probably more accurate.

Thing is every side in the league at least has some good players and youngsters with potential. Even in our worst times we have had good players. It's about how many good players and potential good players to everyone else, and on that I think they rank close to last.

Like many have been saying it will be interesting what approach they take over the next few years. I dare say the plan isn't to abandon the draft and focus on free agents to get them back into flag contention.

Hawks were still around the mark 92-93, may of even won again in 92 if they got over the eagles at subiaco in the first final. That era of hawthorn is probably similar to where Geelong are now, some superstars carrying them along but not much coming through.
Had we had a stable financial club like now back in 93 could have easily improved that list into a very good one. 1991 premiership team was a good deal younger than the 2015 one. Yet the younger one was too old too slow too good
 

perplexed

All Australian
Joined
Nov 25, 2015
Posts
981
Likes
1,260
AFL Club
North Melbourne
So the list is in better shape now. Maybe less a couple of young potential champions (potentially)

I'd say the admin now produces at least 50% better outcomes for a given raw talent than in 2005
The fitness staff are the same Ratten remains. Newman is still unbeaten at box hill despite hawthorn raiding its talent. No reason to be gloomy

Also Hawks fans were equally deluded about our chances through 2008. No one gave us a hope. Maybe even less hope than port 2007

We believed. Oh how we believed
You aren't living up to your name
 

Jobe Watson

Brownlow Medalist
Joined
Jun 12, 2009
Posts
13,477
Likes
16,778
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Arsenal
Sicily has a tonne of talent but needs an attitude alignment every now and then. What I said is still true - for a guy his age to kick has many goals as he did in 2016 is impressive. He has talent. The question was "of the young guys who looks like they could be more than a role player" Sicily is a clear example.

I would have agreed with you last year on O'Brien - but if you've watched him this year you will see a guy that definitely looks like he will be more than a role player.

Question - how many games at senior level do give a player before you write them off as being decent? We all know young/inexperienced players are up and down, but when is the write off point?
Maybe my eyes were playing tricks, but having read your board a few times this year I could have sworn I saw a number of your supporters calling for the club to use Sicily as trade bait at the end of the season. It's a shame that at 22 years old with the opportunity to lock down a spot in a rebuilding team that he hasn't got his shit together. Was quite impressive last year but hasn't gone on with it this season.

I haven't seen enough of O'Brien to really comment on his future prospects, but at 23 years old he'd want to get cracking. I see he's played a couple of good games this year; hopefully he keeps it up. But 24 games in 5 seasons isn't much to write home about, and you could understand why non-Hawks supporters wouldn't be paying much attention to him yet.
 

Blue1980

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Jun 9, 2011
Posts
9,082
Likes
8,182
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Had we had a stable financial club like now back in 93 could have easily improved that list into a very good one. 1991 premiership team was a good deal younger than the 2015 one. Yet the younger one was too old too slow too good
Yeah a fair bit of hubris back then, no way known your off field situation will get that dire you would think.

Lots of crap trades and losing players the calibre of Allan and jarman didn't help. Other factors as well, not embracing the draft, bad administration, complacency etc.

Not all the same factors apply now, but a similar on field downturn or one even more severe, at least short term is definitely possible, and in my view likely. This year may produce 8-9 wins at best, next year maybe 4-5 wins.

After that it will depend on how they recruit.
 
Joined
Jun 19, 2007
Posts
32,645
Likes
34,707
Location
On the south side now
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
nil
Moderator #1,859
That's why I posted the picture of Benny McGlynn. Often you just don't know what will happen
That's the thing - we can post pictures of benny mcglynn, Xavier Ellis, Roughead or frankin in their early games - but without seeing them play ~ 50 games you can't say they're shit youth, it's just stupid.

Like Langford - he's played 56 games and doesn't look like he'll take the next step. Billy hartung another that has now clocked over 50 games and hasn't improved his decision making or disposal.

O’Brien and Sicily have only played 58 games between them. We will see less ups and downs from them next year when they get closer to fifty and we know what their regular form is. But there's some good signs already from both of these guys.
 

Jobe Watson

Brownlow Medalist
Joined
Jun 12, 2009
Posts
13,477
Likes
16,778
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Arsenal
I think the writing off of Gunston shows just how tragically short the average foot fan's attention span is.

We've also played him mostly out of the forward line this year. The only time he's played a full game up forward (last week) he kicked more than Tom Lynch and Peter Wright combined against a backline full of kids.
Daniher was a slow burner initially, as you would expect a gangly, uncoordinated young key forward to be. He's stepped up in the last 2 seasons to now be an arguable top 5 key forward and All-Australian contender.

O'Brien and Daniher are the same age. Yes Daniher has played more games, but there's probably a reason for that. Big call to say that O'Brien will get to Joe's level within the next 40-45 games.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Joined
Jun 19, 2007
Posts
32,645
Likes
34,707
Location
On the south side now
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
nil
Moderator #1,863
Maybe my eyes were playing tricks, but having read your board a few times this year I could have sworn I saw a number of your supporters calling for the club to use Sicily as trade bait at the end of the season. It's a shame that at 22 years old with the opportunity to lock down a spot in a rebuilding team that he hasn't got his shit together. Was quite impressive last year but hasn't gone on with it this season.

I haven't seen enough of O'Brien to really comment on his future prospects, but at 23 years old he'd want to get cracking. I see he's played a couple of good games this year; hopefully he keeps it up. But 24 games in 5 seasons isn't much to write home about, and you could understand why non-Hawks supporters wouldn't be paying much attention to him yet.
there was a suggestion that Carlton was chasing Sicily hard last year and he's been spoken of as potential trade bait by posters on our board exploring ways to get into the first round somehow. He has a tendency to drop his bundle when things aren't going his way, and our hyper careful gameplan since round 6 makes for a lot of frustration as a forward.

However, Clarko is trying to work him as a rebounding defender - which didn't work the first time we tried it but he was dropped and worked his way back into the team, and when he played off a back flank in our last game he completely changed our ability to transition. It was awesome to watch. He's definitely got some awesome tools in his kit bag.
 
Joined
Jun 19, 2007
Posts
32,645
Likes
34,707
Location
On the south side now
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
nil
Moderator #1,864
Daniher was a slow burner initially, as you would expect a gangly, uncoordinated young key forward to be. He's stepped up in the last 2 seasons to now be an arguable top 5 key forward and All-Australian contender.

O'Brien and Daniher are the same age. Yes Daniher has played more games, but there's probably a reason for that. Big call to say that O'Brien will get to Joe's level within the next 40-45 games.
Well I didn't make the comparison to daniher but I would say he's played more games because he didn't have to compete with Roughead and Gunston for key forward roles.
 

Jobe Watson

Brownlow Medalist
Joined
Jun 12, 2009
Posts
13,477
Likes
16,778
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Arsenal
Well I didn't make the comparison to daniher but I would say he's played more games because he didn't have to compete with Roughead and Gunston for key forward roles.
I'm certain Daniher, a top 10 draft pick widely regarded as one of the best players of his draft year, would have found a way into that Hawthorn team quicker than O'Brien has, and if Hawthorn had drafted him (*shudder*) he'd be a lot further along than O'Brien currently is.
 

SA HAWK

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Aug 13, 2006
Posts
11,145
Likes
7,296
Location
Adelaide
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I'm certain Daniher, a top 10 draft pick widely regarded as one of the best players of his draft year, would have found a way into that Hawthorn team quicker than O'Brien has, and if Hawthorn had drafted him (*shudder*) he'd be a lot further along than O'Brien currently is.
O'Brien may turn out to be a player but he won't get near Daniher.
 
Joined
Sep 13, 2000
Posts
66,393
Likes
26,097
Location
Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Horks
Daniher was a slow burner initially, as you would expect a gangly, uncoordinated young key forward to be. He's stepped up in the last 2 seasons to now be an arguable top 5 key forward and All-Australian contender.

O'Brien and Daniher are the same age. Yes Daniher has played more games, but there's probably a reason for that. Big call to say that O'Brien will get to Joe's level within the next 40-45 games.
A reason? Politeness prevents me for saying it. Essendon probably would have played him more. He's taken longer to develop physically
Obrien will be a couple of seasons behind Joe even in a couple of years time if all goes well for both
 

Jobe Watson

Brownlow Medalist
Joined
Jun 12, 2009
Posts
13,477
Likes
16,778
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Arsenal
A reason? Politeness prevents me for saying it. Essendon probably would have played him more. He's taken longer to develop physically
Obrien will be a couple of seasons behind Joe even in a couple of years time if all goes well for both
Do you think that if you swapped Joe and O'Brien, and Essendon drafted O'Brien while Hawthorn drafted Joe, that O'Brien would have played 82 games, would be 2nd in the Coleman and in All-Australian calculations in his 5th season? You must rate him very highly if the answer is yes.

No offence to O'Brien, but I think Daniher is and always will be a few levels above him as a player. I also don't think O'Brien would have played as many games for us as Daniher has.
 
Joined
Sep 13, 2000
Posts
66,393
Likes
26,097
Location
Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Horks
Do you think that if you swapped Joe and O'Brien, and Essendon drafted O'Brien while Hawthorn drafted Joe, that O'Brien would have played 82 games, would be 2nd in the Coleman and in All-Australian calculations in his 5th season? You must rate him very highly if the answer is yes.

No offence to O'Brien, but I think Daniher is and always will be a few levels above him as a player. I also don't think O'Brien would have played as many games for us as Joe has.
I did say he's taken longer than even Daniher to develop physically he would have been played a lot more though
 

tesla1962

Premium Gold
Joined
Jun 3, 2014
Posts
4,577
Likes
5,255
Location
Lewes, East Sussex
AFL Club
Essendon
I see the club has wheeled out Hodgey now to help with the softening up process to get the fans used to the probability that they won't see O'Meara again this year. I would rather he miss 20 games and play eight years says Hodge. How can even the most naive fan see this whole narrative as anything else other than the club trying to manage what it's known for some time by gradually pushing back the timelines. I reckon all clubs do it, but really important for the hawks given their high proportion of band wagoners.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-06-16/hodge-backs-omeara-over-the-long-term
 
Last edited:

wagstaff

Premiership Player
Joined
Nov 28, 2001
Posts
4,772
Likes
2,173
Location
The Sea of Holes
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Melbourne Stars, Arsenal
I see the club has wheeled out Hodgey now to help with the softening up process to get the fans used to the probability they won't O'Meara again this year. I would rather he miss 20 games and play eight years says Hodge. How can even the most naive fan see this whole narrative as anything but the club trying to manage what it's known for some time by gradually pushing back the timelines. I reckon all clubs do it, but really important for the hawks given their high proportion of band wagoners.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-06-16/hodge-backs-omeara-over-the-long-term
Yeah, long odds now that O'Meara will return this year after reading those quotes.
 
Joined
Sep 13, 2000
Posts
66,393
Likes
26,097
Location
Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Horks
I see the club has wheeled out Hodgey now to help with the softening up process to get the fans used to the probability they won't O'Meara again this year. I would rather he miss 20 games and play eight years says Hodge. How can even the most naive fan see this whole narrative as anything but the club trying to manage what it's known for some time by gradually pushing back the timelines. I reckon all clubs do it, but really important for the hawks given their high proportion of band wagoners.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-06-16/hodge-backs-omeara-over-the-long-term
Hey. We're not among the clubs who thought planning to just make finals as a high water mark was the way to go to keep their jobs
 

doppleganger

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jun 4, 2005
Posts
16,078
Likes
7,212
Location
Putney
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Collingwood
there was a suggestion that Carlton was chasing Sicily hard last year and he's been spoken of as potential trade bait by posters on our board exploring ways to get into the first round somehow.
Bahahaha, surely part of the how bout we bundle together three of our battlers and get back a good pick proposition that seem to dominate trade week.
 

Abasi

WINGED GOD
Joined
Apr 19, 2006
Posts
57,185
Likes
92,788
Location
Bayside
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Spurs, Socceroos
Moderator #1,875
Well who is the current equivalent of Crawford, hodge, Mitchell, Croad, Sewell, Brown, Bateman, Osborne, Williams, Ladson and Campbell, who were the 2008 premiership players on the list prior to the 2004 draft.

Now not all of those mentioned were superstars, and only the first 4-5 were front liners.
Exactly my point.
In 2004 people were lining up to say Hawthorn's list was shit and that they had very little, if any youth coming through.
Hodge was still being pilloried as a draft bust on bigfooty.
Mitchell was seen as a run-of-the-mill inside mid to the point where opposition fans genuinely argued Daniel Harris was a superior player.
Sewell was a rookie listed player who played 6 unassuming games off half back. No one knew who he was.
Ladson(8 games), Campbell(14), Osborne(17) and Bateman(13), Williams(21) were all youngsters, who didn't have any fanfare.
Clinton Young was yet to join the rookie list.
Croad wasn't on Hawthorn's list.
Guerra was about to be delisted by St Kilda.

The same people lining up to say those blokes were not going to amount to anything are probably in here saying the same thing about Sicily, O'Brien, Howe, Lovell, Hardwick, Cousins, Hartung, Brand and whoever else they know on the Hawthorn list in 2017. It's what bigfooty does.


Granted no one thought a premiership was happening anytime soon in 2004, I would argue the current list is in even worse shape than that. But just say, for instance it isn't and it's on par with 2004, this is what happened next in 2004:

Got roughy, franklin and Lewis in the first 7 picks, 3 club legends in the 2004 draft. Not bad for 'speculative' draft picks.

Then further high picks in burchill and rioli made the side even stronger.

From that basis some canny recruiting from other clubs (Gilham and Dew), great coaching and a bit of luck landed a flag way ahead of what anyone thought possible in 2008.

So the differences to then and now are very obvious, you don't have any picks available anywhere early in this years draft, so chances of finding 3 future or current a graders at the end of the season are slim to none.
Hawthorn have Burton, Hardwick, Sicily and O'Brien who are looking like good future prospects, add a couple of the Academy players who are highly regarded, the youngest Langford(supposedly the best of the lot) and a solid pick at 35 and who knows where we are sitting in 3 years time. The possibility of Hawthorn finding good players is not that far fetched, and with more avenues, I'd argue, it's possibly easier.

Things can change extremely quickly. I'm not saying they will, but they can, and I don't understand why people get so upset by Hawthorn supporters suggesting that the direction of the club can be turned around in a couple of years with a few shrewd pick ups a FA or two and good trade.

Now I know there is free agency now and there wasn't then, but to find 3 a grade free agents would cost a crap load of money and they would all be at least in their mid 20s and on fairly decent money.
It's hard to know what Hawthorn have planned. How hard they go at a big fish, or whether they go for a couple of lesser lights. We've had a 'big fish' thread on the Hawk board for sometime ever since a couple of ITK posters suggested that Hawthorn had big plans for 2017 and 2018 trade/FA periods, and it's thrown up plenty of musings, proposals, thoughts and predictions as to what that could actually mean.


The other option is to bundle up players to get early picks, but that may translate to a first and second rounder at best, and further gut what current talent is there.
Clarkson is notorious for backing in his troops to come good, often to his detriment(see the first half of this year). He will move players on if he thinks they don't fit, or that their time is running out, but I can't see him moving on players like Gunston, Rioli or Breust for the chance at an early pick. It's not his go at all.

I will not be at all surprised if we head to the draft with the 2nd rounder we already have, and nothing earlier, while we trade away a couple of fringe players for 2nd and 3rd rounders. This will of course have Bigfooty bemused.


I've seen it time and time again with clubs thinking their infallible just because of who they are and what has happened in the past.
Hawthorn moving on Mitchell and Lewis is the very opposite of a club sitting back thinking that they'll just stay good forever without much thought.
That was a very bold move, and one which could be huge for the club going forward should JOM come good like Burgoyne did after his shakey start. Tom Mitchell is certainly having a great first season.

It never works like that, otherwise Fitzroy would of remained a super power, we would of never gone down the ladder and Essendon wouldn't of tried a dodgy supplements scheme to keep up.
Ahh, Hirdy. To think he did all that because "I hate them(HFC) more than anything", then proceeded to lose to Clarkson by an average of 12 goals a game while sending them to the brink of oblivion. Bless him.

2008 was the footballing equivalent of catching lightning in a bottle, you will realize how great an achievement it was as time goes on. Landing 3 club legends in one draft is probably a 1 in 50 year occurrence, at best.
No arguments here, and we got them up and playing great footy very early in their careers. Franklin kicked 7 in an EF as a 20yr old, 73 goals for year. Roughead with 40. Probably the best young duo the game has seen.

We've certainly not got much of a chance of bringing in 3 players like that this year from the draft, but with a kid like Burton who is playing his 20th game of football at any level since August 2014, developing as well as he is after missing so much footy, there's plenty to suggest that we might find them in other ways.
 
Top Bottom