I think while it is necesary to be cautious- any player in the current scholarship schemes comes with a risk that they might not play for you, 'make it', or indeed they might just go home. Irish players, NSW players are as likely as Kurt is to turn to another sport or do any number of things that you've outlined above.
NZ is a lot like Melbourne, sporting mad. They are more accepting of the spectacles and nuances of different codes- and as a nation love nothing more than a challenge. IMO i would describe their sporting tastes as more cultured than that of NSW people (where i live)... The parochialism of people who support the NRL here from your average Joe through to the games celebrities and commentators is astonishing- and i can guarantee you that out of any market to date, it is the hardest one to crack. All we hear up here is the rhetoric of 'backs to the wall' and 'we have the greatest code and all we need to do is get a few things right and AFL we'll present us no worry at all'--- and i can say that that is an actual quote. It is an astonishing achievement, not only for our club, but for the code itself that so many young sportsmen are starting to play the code. People like Kieran Jack, like him or not, make an amazing statement about our game. I marvel at it given the state of the organization of AFL in sydney... you need only look at the fact that it's called Sydney AFL and not NSW AFL to see how it struggles. SANFL, VFL, WAFL, TFL, NTFL, QAFL- state and territory named leagues.
I digress...my overidding point is that Kurt has some significant advantages or rather we do in regards to him, that are culturally based for one but also based in how he and other young people learn about the sport through their secondary education system. Your fears about him being branded a traitor and surcuming to pressure arent necessarily warranted given that he was introduced to the game and more importantly played the game a) at school, and b) with his friends. There is a serious case to suggest that he genuinely became enamored with the code. He's not been poached from another sport. He has been able to make, somewhat, an informed decision based on his experience of the game. No one has come along waving cheque books or dollar signs in his face- which, i might add, other codes who dont have the restrictions in place that AFL does can do. For example- a 15 year old junior rugby player in NSW can be signed on a $50,000 a year retainer to agree to play for said clubs feeder organisations.
This venture may end up like a Marty Clarke, or Tadgh Kenneally, or any number of cases that we could care to list...however the fact we are starting from the bottom up, so to speak, as opposed to other scholarship schemes suggests that our chances for success over the years will be greater due to these solid foundations.