Club Focus Hawthorn 2020 - Hartigan, Phillips, Grainger-Barras, Mitchell, Downie, Brockman

AFL Club Focus

What does Hawthorn most need this off-season?

  • A key forward

    Votes: 15 26.3%

  • A key defender

    Votes: 10 17.5%

  • An inside mid

    Votes: 7 12.3%

  • An outside mid

    Votes: 23 40.4%

  • Other

    Votes: 2 3.5%
  • Total voters
    57

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Data from footywire. To check the draft order (updated weekly) see the thread here.
 
Prochard123 said:
Speaking of which, I firmly believe a midfield of Tom Mitchell (top 3 in clearances if fit), Jaeger O'meara (clearance specialist) and Treloar (7th in clearances this year) will make Hawks the #1 clearance side in the AFL regardless of who plays ruck for them.
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James Worpel isn't bad at clearances either, those three combined added up to 17th best in the comp. Mitchell didn't even top the charts for us.
 
Spitting_Cobra said:
James Worpel isn't bad at clearances either, those three combined added up to 17th best in the comp. Mitchell didn't even top the charts for us.
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"If fit"

I watched quite a few of your games earlier this year, Mitchell clearly underdone (I'm sure you know this too, you're just choosing to ignore it for some reason). He recovered later this year but the damage to his averages was already done.

Last year Mitchell was fit - 2018 - averaged 7.96 clearances per game (1st in the AFL)

I think Worpel is barely AFL quality, early developer but also early peaker. Severely lacks weapons, paste or class. Also similar size to O'meara, Mitchell so no synergy there.

Worpel reminds me of Devon Smith, just don't have any point of difference to play anywhere else and is undersized for an inside midfield role.
 
Prochard123 said:
"If fit"

I watched quite a few of your games earlier this year, Mitchell clearly underdone (I'm sure you know this too, you're just choosing to ignore it for some reason). He recovered later this year but the damage to his averages was already done.

Last year Mitchell was fit - 2018 - averaged 7.96 clearances per game (1st in the AFL)

I think Worpel is barely AFL quality, early developer but also early peaker. Severely lacks weapons, paste or class. Also similar size to O'meara, Mitchell so no synergy there.

Worpel reminds me of Devon Smith, just don't have any point of difference and is undersized for an inside midfield role.
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I know Mitchell wasn't fully recovered, but his re-introduction clearly affected Worpel's game as well, which was the far more concerning factor. I don't think four (or five really with Shiels) clearance based midfielders is the best way to go about things.
 

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Prochard123 said:
So what are your plans for O'meara, Wingard, Mitchell then?

They still all have a few good years left each, surely you don't want them wasting away their final years when you can reignite your finals hopes, regardless of how unlikely that may be?
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No point blowing our lists future for 3 players in the 1 in a million shot we steal an early flag. Much rather trade them if they are willing to go for a good return. (I’m in the minority of hawks supporters here) otherwise they stay and play out the rest of their time here as we rebuild. Most players don’t win a flag.
 
Spitting_Cobra said:
I know Mitchell wasn't fully recovered, but his re-introduction clearly affected Worpel's game as well, which was the far more concerning factor. I don't think four (or five really with Shiels) clearance based midfielders is the best way to go about things.
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Well tbh I just see all your midfielders are too similar including Worpel and Shiel. Apart from O'meara, no-one has good disposals or have strong pace. Noone can play forward/wing. Kinda similar to Melbourne's situation where Petracca is their only midfielder who is genuinely damaging.

Treloar while won't provide the class that you need - he can play an inside mid/wing role (like J Kelly, Macrae, Gaff), he is one of the best in the business for run and carry away from stoppages (we've seen how effective T Kelly is in this role), and he is actually also quite capable when rested forward while using his pace to lead and hit the score board.

Treloar might not necessarily be better, but he's definitely a different player to any midfielder you have.
 
Prochard123 said:
"If fit"

I watched quite a few of your games earlier this year, Mitchell clearly underdone (I'm sure you know this too, you're just choosing to ignore it for some reason). He recovered later this year but the damage to his averages was already done.

Last year Mitchell was fit - 2018 - averaged 7.96 clearances per game (1st in the AFL)

I think Worpel is barely AFL quality, early developer but also early peaker. Severely lacks weapons, paste or class. Also similar size to O'meara, Mitchell so no synergy there.

Worpel reminds me of Devon Smith, just don't have any point of difference to play anywhere else and is undersized for an inside midfield role.
Click to expand...
Mitchell got most of those clearances by being our only real clearance player apart from JOM. You are severely underrating worpel and Mitchell returning is having a negative effect on our midfield. Especially Worps. Worps needs to play as the main mid and watch him flourish.
 
H00t said:
No point blowing our lists future for 3 players in the 1 in a million shot we steal an early flag. Much rather trade them if they are willing to go for a good return. (I’m in the minority of hawks supporters here) otherwise they stay and play out the rest of their time here as we rebuild. Most players don’t win a flag.
Click to expand...
Well considering there are 18 clubs in the league it's definitely not a 1/1,000,000 shot at "stealing a flag" lol... Not even Adelaide/North has such a low chance.

I firmly believe that game-plans/team structure wins premierships. Back track a few years ago Richmond's list wasn't that impressive either, and didn't have more "stars" than you currently do.

Point is - Hawthorn is much closer to a flag than most think. But no-one will know at this stage whether rebuilding or contending is the correct choice from here until much later.
 
Prochard123 said:
Well tbh I just see all your midfielders are too similar including Worpel and Shiel. Apart from O'meara, no-one has good disposals or have strong pace. Noone can play forward/wing. Kinda similar to Melbourne's situation where Petracca is their only midfielder who is genuinely damaging.

Treloar while won't provide the class that you need - he can play an inside mid/wing role (like J Kelly, Macrae, Gaff), he is one of the best in the business for run and carry away from stoppages (we've seen how effective T Kelly is in this role), and he is actually also quite capable when rested forward while using his pace to lead and hit the score board.

Treloar might not necessarily be better, but he's definitely a different player to any midfielder you have.
Click to expand...

I agree entirely. Treloar is quicker but he is essentially there to do the same job, more or less. We'd never re-coup what we paid to bring Mitchell or JOM in, and Worpel should be untradeable (italics because Burton should have been too) so we are pretty much stuck with a pretty one-paced, pretty poor disposal midfield.
 
Prochard123 said:
Well considering there are 18 clubs in the league it's definitely not a 1/1,000,000 shot at "stealing a flag" lol... Not even Adelaide/North has such a low chance.

I firmly believe that game-plans/team structure wins premierships. Back track a few years ago Richmond's list wasn't that impressive either, and didn't have more "stars" than you currently do.

Point is - Hawthorn is much closer to a flag than most think. But no-one will know at this stage whether rebuilding or contending is the correct choice from here until much later.
Click to expand...
There is no way Adelaide, north or us win a flag next year. Zero.

We aren’t closer to a flag than people think. Our list is that bad. Richmonds list a few years ago was pretty good. The game plan was terrible though.

It’s rebuild time for hawthorn which means no treloar. And especially not for any good draft picks, even decent ones.
 
Spitting_Cobra said:
I agree entirely. Treloar is quicker but he is essentially there to do the same job, more or less. We'd never re-coup what we pad to bring Mitchell or JOM in, and Worpel should be untradeable (italics because Burton should have been too) so we are pretty much stuck with a pretty one-paced, pretty poor disposal midfield.
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Treloar does the same job, and has done it better than every midfielder in the comp apart from Oliver (2nd in contested possessions, 7th in clearances), yes.

BUT, that's only because we forced him into doing the dirty work because him and Adams are our only competent inside mids at actually winning the ball.

Pendles has regressed so much, and is only NOT liability when he plays a hybrid defensive role/offensive distributor around contests. His job has nothing to do with actually being our #1 clearance man which has forced Treloar to sacrifise his run and carry playstyle.
 
H00t said:
There is no way Adelaide, north or us win a flag next year. Zero.

We aren’t closer to a flag than people think. Our list is that bad. Richmonds list a few years ago was pretty good. The game plan was terrible though.

It’s rebuild time for hawthorn which means no treloar. And especially not for any good draft picks, even decent ones.
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Look I won't comment any more on your perception of where your list is at.

But are you seriously telling me if sportsbet is paying $1 : $1,000,000 for Adelaide/North to win a flag next year you wouldn't take it?

FYI Adelaide/North are currently at $1 : $101. What you're saying implies Sportsbet is currently overestimating their chances by roughly 10000x
 
Prochard123 said:
Look I won't comment any more on your perception of where your list is at.

But are you seriously telling me if sportsbet is paying $1 : $1,000,000 for Adelaide/North to win a flag next year you wouldn't take it?
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Nope. I’d rather spent that money of the lotto. And it’s got odds a lot greater than 1 in a million.
 
H00t said:
Nope. I’d rather spent that money of the lotto. And it’s got odds a lot greater than 1 in a million.
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Ok but you realise that statistically if the Lotto paid out 100x more than the current prizes, you are still getting ripped off probability wise right?

Actually forget it, i'll leave you to have a read yourself, this is so off-topic.
 

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H00t said:
Both lists had a lot more talent then we do, both at the top end and from players 12 down. They just had to get that talent to put it together on the field. We are lacking the talent so we can’t put it together on the field.

Very different scenarios, just because some clubs turned it around quickly doesn’t mean that the groundwork hadn’t been layer for years previous to that. We don’t have the groundwork.
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Dogs were a laughing stock and Richmond had supporters and the media campaigning to get Hardwick sacked. People had them failing to make the 8 in the start of the year predictions.

While they may be very different scenarios, they show how silly it is when people declare "No good for X years" because invariably they are wrong. Whether too pessimistic or too optimistic.

If we lack talent how did we beat Brisbane and how did we beat Richmond and how did we nearly beat Port if not for some late brain fades? Maybe we just need to get the talent put together on the field too.

Or maybe Im wrong and BF is correct and we have 5 or 10 years in the wilderness - even though well run clubs are able to turn things around in 2 or 3 years.

Maybe we are just not a well run club.
 
HairyO said:
Dogs were a laughing stock and Richmond had supporters and the media campaigning to get Hardwick sacked. People had them failing to make the 8 in the start of the year predictions.

While they may be very different scenarios, they show how silly it is when people declare "No good for X years" because invariably they are wrong. Whether too pessimistic or too optimistic.

If we lack talent how did we beat Brisbane and how did we beat Richmond and how did we nearly beat Port if not for some late brain fades? Maybe we just need to get the talent put together on the field too.

Or maybe Im wrong and BF is correct and we have 5 or 10 years in the wilderness - even though well run clubs are able to turn things around in 2 or 3 years.

Maybe we are just not a well run club.
Click to expand...
We don’t necessarily need to spend 10 years in the wilderness. We only need a glut of good draft picks over the next 3 years and we will be on the up.

we only beat lions and tigers because it was the start of the year and they both played pretty poorly. We were only close to port because they couldn’t kick straight.

Agree that saying a team will be no good for the foreseeable future is wrong. Because generally a lot can change and most of the times lists aren’t as poor as they seem but they are coached badly.

Opposite has happened for us where good coaching has held up our list as it got poorer over the years and now isn’t looking healthy.
Our list management from 2014 to now has been really bad. And we won 2 flags in that time but now our poor decisions are coming back to hurt. Bit like GWS and GCS only starting to hurt the quality of AFL 6-7 years after their introduction.
 
H00t said:
We don’t necessarily need to spend 10 years in the wilderness. We only need a glut of good draft picks over the next 3 years and we will be on the up.

we only beat lions and tigers because it was the start of the year and they both played pretty poorly. We were only close to port because they couldn’t kick straight.

Agree that saying a team will be no good for the foreseeable future is wrong. Because generally a lot can change and most of the times lists aren’t as poor as they seem but they are coached badly.

Opposite has happened for us where good coaching has held up our list as it got poorer over the years and now isn’t looking healthy.
Our list management from 2014 to now has been really bad. And we won 2 flags in that time but now our poor decisions are coming back to hurt. Bit like GWS and GCS only starting to hurt the quality of AFL 6-7 years after their introduction.
Click to expand...

I can think of 15 clubs that would like our bad list management from 2014, given our 2015 and risking it all for 2016 and the 4-peat.

The idea that Clarko should have settled with the 3-peat and gone straight to rebuild mode in 2015 is simply moronic revisionism.
 
HairyO said:
I can think of 15 clubs that would like our bad list management from 2014, given our 2015 and risking it all for 2016 and the 4-peat.

The idea that Clarko should have settled with the 3-peat and gone straight to rebuild mode in 2015 is simply moronic revisionism.
Click to expand...
Never said we shouldn’t have gone for 4 in a row. But 2014 we traded a first rounder for O’rourke and that was the start of the rot. No problem with going for the 4 peat and I feel the time to transition was at the end of 2016. But our success was built on the work done before the 2014 trade period not after it.

Apart from Frawley in 2014 we also didn’t go hard at winning in 2016.
 
H00t said:
Never said we shouldn’t have gone for 4 in a row. But 2014 we traded a first rounder for O’rourke and that was the start of the rot. No problem with going for the 4 peat and I feel the time to transition was at the end of 2016. But our success was built on the work done before the 2014 trade period not after it.

Apart from Frawley in 2014 we also didn’t go hard at winning in 2016.
Click to expand...

If ORourke was a bad decision then Burgoyne was a terrible decision.

Are you only able to critique in hindsight? Who do we recruit (trade and draft) over the next 3 years?

Its simple, right ?
 
HairyO said:
If ORourke was a bad decision then Burgoyne was a terrible decision.

Are you only able to critique in hindsight? Who do we recruit (trade and draft) over the next 3 years?

Its simple, right ?
Click to expand...
O’rourke was a bad decision in 2014 no hindsight needed there. Same as our pick swap with saints that was all involved in over paying for JOM. Some trades are just bad then and there.

I’m actually not a fan of hindsight critiquing because a bad trade can look good due to a lot of luck. Same as a good trade look bad if you get unlucky. I base it on the trade at the time.
 
H00t said:
Never said we shouldn’t have gone for 4 in a row. But 2014 we traded a first rounder for O’rourke and that was the start of the rot. No problem with going for the 4 peat and I feel the time to transition was at the end of 2016. But our success was built on the work done before the 2014 trade period not after it.

Apart from Frawley in 2014 we also didn’t go hard at winning in 2016.
Click to expand...
Having a fit Roughead and i think we win 2016
 
H00t said:
O’rourke was a bad decision in 2014 no hindsight needed there. Same as our pick swap with saints that was all involved in over paying for JOM. Some trades are just bad then and there.

I’m actually not a fan of hindsight critiquing because a bad trade can look good due to a lot of luck. Same as a good trade look bad if you get unlucky. I base it on the trade at the time.
Click to expand...

6 years ago, need to get over that one. Besides the only really good player taken between that pick we traded and our next pick was Jack Steel (an academy pick) and maybe Toby McLean and Maynard are now good players.
 
Spursfan said:
6 years ago, need to get over that one. Besides the only really good player taken between that pick we traded and our next pick was Jack Steel (an academy pick) and maybe Toby McLean and Maynard are now good players.
Click to expand...
I was just stating that since 2014 our trading and list management has been poor. We did get lucky in that 2014 was one of the worst drafts ever. Certainly worse than any other draft this decade. I don’t care about O’rourke. I only care about our continued bad choices since.
 
TylerDurden said:
Way too early to be writing off Worpel. He's 21, and already won a BnF in his 2nd year. He's a bull that is only gonna get better.
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Just had his 2nd year blues a bit late as he was too busy being an absolute boss in his 2nd year.
 
WilloTree said:
I wouldn't. As I said. Hawks last full rebuild worked really well. Just do that again.
Click to expand...

For us to do that again, we're gonna need you to steer pick 1 our way, and probably should've traded Frawley to North for pick 7 instead of letting him retire ;)
 
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