Toast Hawthorn have headf***ed everyone

Abasi

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Thread starter Moderator #3,001
I still haven't heard a good analysis of why Hawthorn would finish 14th or 15th. It would have to be a big drop from 4th. The only line that is constant from the media is that the Hawks will have 9 players over 30. Not sure how that's relevant.
“Hopes and prayers”.
 

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Bugs1977

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Are the people who say that we'll finish 14th the same ones who said we had no youf?

Look how that one turned out.
My mentality on all the Hawthorn negativity is that I wouldn’t be comfortable unless it was out there because I know when it’s there that their worried about us.
 

Brant

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I still haven't heard a good analysis of why Hawthorn would finish 14th or 15th. It would have to be a big drop from 4th. The only line that is constant from the media is that the Hawks will have 9 players over 30. Not sure how that's relevant.
1. 9x players over 30.
2. No youf.
3. We won lots of close games, which we'll obviously never do again, so there's 5ish wins we got this year that we won't get next year.
4. No Cyril.
5. Mitch, Lewis, Hodge, Gibson & Lake have gone.
6. Negative contested possession differential.

Bottom 4 is being generous - I can see us finishing 19th - 22nd on -3 wins & being relegated...
 

Abasi

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Thread starter Moderator #3,005
1. 9x players over 30.
2. No youf.
3. We won lots of close games, which we'll obviously never do again, so there's 5ish wins we got this year that we won't get next year.
4. No Cyril.
5. Mitch, Lewis, Hodge, Gibson & Lake have gone.
6. Negative contested possession differential.

Bottom 4 is being generous - I can see us finishing 19th - 22nd on -3 wins & being relegated...
You forgot....
  1. Wingard isn’t any good
  2. Scully will never play again
  3. Tom Mitchell is a stat padder
  4. JOM is “the very definition of vanilla”(I really liked this one when I read it).
  5. Burton is impossible to replace and was our best youngster
  6. Jack Russell took our entire fitness and conditioning program with him.

I can see us getting toweled up by Mirboo North this year.
 

Gralin

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You forgot....
  1. Wingard isn’t any good
  2. Scully will never play again
  3. Tom Mitchell is a stat padder
  4. JOM is “the very definition of vanilla”(I really liked this one when I read it).
  5. Burton is impossible to replace and was our best youngster
  6. Jack Russell took our entire fitness and conditioning program with him.

I can see us getting toweled up by Mirboo North this year.
only top drat picks or premiership players can be proven elite talents......
 

Gralin

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But not top draft picks if they’re traded. :think:
yes and not premiership players if they weren't top draft picks for the club they won a flag at, trades and low picks cannot be elite because reasons

also not if they are over 26 by the end of 2020

have ever had an injury

haven't been AA or have depending on who you talk to
 

A Cut Above

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Plus the draw. We had an easy draw in 2018.
Because we finished 4th our 2019 draw will be harder and we'll be "found out".
Hah. The only difference in the FIXTURE (its not a draw) each year is whether the AFL decides to **** us lengthwise or sideways. ;)
 

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Glorin

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http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-01-05/who-has-the-best-forwards-we-rank-every-club
Some more evidence of headf***ing on display here.
How anyone can validate our fwd line as 9th best is clearly not seeing straight.🙄
How many teams can boast 5 of their starting 6 fwd have been AA with 2 from last years side? How many starting 6's can claim 17 flags between them? How many have the leading goalkicker and the player of the finals in the VFL as backup?:drunk:
I don't think we are in the top 4 best fwd lines in the comp, as 3 of our 6 have played their best footy, but the other 3 are at their prime right now, so I think 9th is a real poor assessment of where we are at.
 

cryptor

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http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-01-05/who-has-the-best-forwards-we-rank-every-club
Some more evidence of headf***ing on display here.
How anyone can validate our fwd line as 9th best is clearly not seeing straight.🙄
How many teams can boast 5 of their starting 6 fwd have been AA with 2 from last years side? How many starting 6's can claim 17 flags between them? How many have the leading goalkicker and the player of the finals in the VFL as backup?:drunk:
I don't think we are in the top 4 best fwd lines in the comp, as 3 of our 6 have played their best footy, but the other 3 are at their prime right now, so I think 9th is a real poor assessment of where we are at.
We scored the 6th most points for in 2018 (only looking at H&A) and we've since added Wingard to the line up. 9th is definitely too low imo but it's not overly unreasonable when you consider the outside perception of our issues.
  1. The loss of Rioli. We know that he only played a few games last year and only contributed 2 goals, so it was just like he was already gone anyway. But all the observers see is his name in the outs column and think, "shit, that's a big loss!". Wingard is a great addition for us but his last couple seasons as a forward haven't been at his best so it doesn't have the same impression as maybe it should.
  2. The expected decline of older players. They've named 3 of our players who are over 30 in our forward line. Poppy (31), Roughy (32) and Burgoyne (36) - ages @ rnd 1 2019.
    • Poppy over the past 3 seasons he's had a declining goal average to go alongside some soft tissue injuries which are only more likely to be an issue.
    • Roughy in a similar vein has had a declining goal average over the same period. While it's fair to say the cancer treatment caused that decline, it doesn't change the fact that he's had that decline. While it's entirely possible he could have a better season this year, objectively you'd have to concede it's more likely his output is the same or declines further.
    • Burgoyne is an ancient godly force with literally no indication of slowing down. He'll play forever.
  3. Our key forward posts aren't great. Roughead is a champion player and bloke but as touched upon before he is clearly in decline and that's unlikely to change. Gunston isn't key forward size. He is so bloody good it almost doesn't matter, but when things aren't going our way his smaller size compared to the bigger key defenders shows. Lewis and Nash could help here but again, it's not likely they'll suddenly improve this season to become true threats.
At the end of the day we can disagree with these impressions and argue the substance of them, but these are some of the real perceptions outsiders have. With those in mind a 9th place rating isn't completely absurd. I disagree with it too but I can see how an objective observer might come to that conclusion. Thankfully outside perceptions don't have any influence on how our forward line will actually perform this year.

Better they underrate us and we watch them be proven wrong, rather than pump us up and then watch us fail to live up to expectations.
 

Simon_Nesbit

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I looked at the lineups and would place our pockets/flanks #1 comfortably. Gunston/Roughead shows a distinct lack of a tall player - we really need a 60 goal KPF to step up and dominate. (In a gameplan sense, Gunston is a flanker despite kicking 50+ goals every year)
 
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http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-01-05/who-has-the-best-forwards-we-rank-every-club
Some more evidence of headf***ing on display here.
How anyone can validate our fwd line as 9th best is clearly not seeing straight.
How many teams can boast 5 of their starting 6 fwd have been AA with 2 from last years side? How many starting 6's can claim 17 flags between them? How many have the leading goalkicker and the player of the finals in the VFL as backup?:drunk:
I don't think we are in the top 4 best fwd lines in the comp, as 3 of our 6 have played their best footy, but the other 3 are at their prime right now, so I think 9th is a real poor assessment of where we are at.
They probably got our ranking wrong, but the thing I found really laughable was Adelaide 3rd and PA 6th!

Apparently losing Wingard is going to propel Port from 13th in scoring to 6th??
 

kazzooka

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We scored the 6th most points for in 2018 (only looking at H&A) and we've since added Wingard to the line up. 9th is definitely too low imo but it's not overly unreasonable when you consider the outside perception of our issues.
  1. The loss of Rioli. We know that he only played a few games last year and only contributed 2 goals, so it was just like he was already gone anyway. But all the observers see is his name in the outs column and think, "shit, that's a big loss!". Wingard is a great addition for us but his last couple seasons as a forward haven't been at his best so it doesn't have the same impression as maybe it should.
  2. The expected decline of older players. They've named 3 of our players who are over 30 in our forward line. Poppy (31), Roughy (32) and Burgoyne (36) - ages @ rnd 1 2019.
    • Poppy over the past 3 seasons he's had a declining goal average to go alongside some soft tissue injuries which are only more likely to be an issue.
    • Roughy in a similar vein has had a declining goal average over the same period. While it's fair to say the cancer treatment caused that decline, it doesn't change the fact that he's had that decline. While it's entirely possible he could have a better season this year, objectively you'd have to concede it's more likely his output is the same or declines further.
    • Burgoyne is an ancient godly force with literally no indication of slowing down. He'll play forever.
  3. Our key forward posts aren't great. Roughead is a champion player and bloke but as touched upon before he is clearly in decline and that's unlikely to change. Gunston isn't key forward size. He is so bloody good it almost doesn't matter, but when things aren't going our way his smaller size compared to the bigger key defenders shows. Lewis and Nash could help here but again, it's not likely they'll suddenly improve this season to become true threats.
At the end of the day we can disagree with these impressions and argue the substance of them, but these are some of the real perceptions outsiders have. With those in mind a 9th place rating isn't completely absurd. I disagree with it too but I can see how an objective observer might come to that conclusion. Thankfully outside perceptions don't have any influence on how our forward line will actually perform this year.

Better they underrate us and we watch them be proven wrong, rather than pump us up and then watch us fail to live up to expectations.
Burgoyne had multiple injuries and made mistakes in 2018 the signs are beginning to show.

At his peak he went 3-4 years without an injury or error.
 

Glorin

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We scored the 6th most points for in 2018 (only looking at H&A) and we've since added Wingard to the line up. 9th is definitely too low imo but it's not overly unreasonable when you consider the outside perception of our issues.
  1. The loss of Rioli. We know that he only played a few games last year and only contributed 2 goals, so it was just like he was already gone anyway. But all the observers see is his name in the outs column and think, "shit, that's a big loss!". Wingard is a great addition for us but his last couple seasons as a forward haven't been at his best so it doesn't have the same impression as maybe it should.
  2. The expected decline of older players. They've named 3 of our players who are over 30 in our forward line. Poppy (31), Roughy (32) and Burgoyne (36) - ages @ rnd 1 2019.
    • Poppy over the past 3 seasons he's had a declining goal average to go alongside some soft tissue injuries which are only more likely to be an issue.
    • Roughy in a similar vein has had a declining goal average over the same period. While it's fair to say the cancer treatment caused that decline, it doesn't change the fact that he's had that decline. While it's entirely possible he could have a better season this year, objectively you'd have to concede it's more likely his output is the same or declines further.
    • Burgoyne is an ancient godly force with literally no indication of slowing down. He'll play forever.
  3. Our key forward posts aren't great. Roughead is a champion player and bloke but as touched upon before he is clearly in decline and that's unlikely to change. Gunston isn't key forward size. He is so bloody good it almost doesn't matter, but when things aren't going our way his smaller size compared to the bigger key defenders shows. Lewis and Nash could help here but again, it's not likely they'll suddenly improve this season to become true threats.
At the end of the day we can disagree with these impressions and argue the substance of them, but these are some of the real perceptions outsiders have. With those in mind a 9th place rating isn't completely absurd. I disagree with it too but I can see how an objective observer might come to that conclusion. Thankfully outside perceptions don't have any influence on how our forward line will actually perform this year.

Better they underrate us and we watch them be proven wrong, rather than pump us up and then watch us fail to live up to expectations.
I agree with what you are saying, but I think given the thread we are in it is a relevant discussion. As you say, it's an outsider's view, which is influenced by the need to talk the Hawks down.
They probably got our ranking wrong, but the thing I found really laughable was Adelaide 3rd and PA 6th!

Apparently losing Wingard is going to propel Port from 13th in scoring to 6th??
This is more along the lines of my thoughts. When directly comparing fwd lines, it is hard to believe that some of the teams were rated higher than ours. Adel, Port, Ess, Coll and Melb have all got "weaker" forward lines than ours on paper. Yes, these teams may have fwd lines that function better than the Hawks at times or have the potential to be better, but none of them as of right now have more evidence of actually being able to play.
Of the 6 players named for the Hawks 4 would be in our best team since 2000 and Wingard has the potential to join them.
 

Bugs1977

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It’s a top 4 forward line, but the lack of KPF is damning. And we know it.
The annoying thing is we only need Roughie to be slightly above average for us to be a top 5 forward line. Hopefully he can play his role better this year but you can bet your left nut Clarko has a plan B and C in place in case he’s not able to. Whether that’s mimicking Richmond’s set up or something else.
 

Bugs1977

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I agree with what you are saying, but I think given the thread we are in it is a relevant discussion. As you say, it's an outsider's view, which is influenced by the need to talk the Hawks down.

This is more along the lines of my thoughts. When directly comparing fwd lines, it is hard to believe that some of the teams were rated higher than ours. Adel, Port, Ess, Coll and Melb have all got "weaker" forward lines than ours on paper. Yes, these teams may have fwd lines that function better than the Hawks at times or have the potential to be better, but none of them as of right now have more evidence of actually being able to play.
Of the 6 players named for the Hawks 4 would be in our best team since 2000 and Wingard has the potential to join them.
It annoys me that you hear that our players are another year older and said like other teams players don’t age. I mean Eddie Betts looks like he’s 40 but he doesn’t play like it.
 

beta_condition

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I still haven't heard a good analysis of why Hawthorn would finish 14th or 15th. It would have to be a big drop from 4th. The only line that is constant from the media is that the Hawks will have 9 players over 30. Not sure how that's relevant.
Did you see the recent arcticle on the AFL site rating the best forward lines? Port magical jump from 13th to 6th because they recruited Scott Lycett, Hawthorn drop 4 rakings due to trading Wingard in... :think:
 

Brant

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The annoying thing is we only need Roughie to be slightly above average for us to be a top 5 forward line. Hopefully he can play his role better this year but you can bet your left nut Clarko has a plan B and C in place in case he’s not able to. Whether that’s mimicking Richmond’s set up or something else.
Quick tip: If we keep the same plan for bringing the ball inside F50m, Roughy isn’t getting any better.

And, I reckon our ‘Plan C’ for entering F50m is our ‘Plan A’.

In 2017 (esp. after the bye) we played a very defence-first, counter-attacking style of footy. It looked shit, it usually required 7-8 guys in defence, our forwardline was dysfunctional, but hey! We won more games in the 2nd half of the year than 15 other clubs...

In 2018, we were again strongly defensive in nature. You’ll likely have read that clubs only successfully rebounded from our F50m to their F50m on 14% of occasions, without giving it back to us (period unknown - may not have been a season-wide stat, but still pretty cool). We were also very defensive when going inside F50m, where our objective was often to bring the ball to ground & lock it in. This is a ‘Plan C’, at best.

KPF can’t operate effectively in this environment. They can do the ‘Team Thing’ & try to bring the ball to ground, sometimes; if they can make it to the contest & aren’t blocked out of it; however, hoping that Schoey, Roughy or a Resting Ruckman will be able to make it to contest after contest & be successful against multiple, unmanned defenders, proved to be proved to be difficult.

The above will only change if we change our style of play up the field. I.e. Get more attacking & move the ball quicker. Our midfield & ball-carrying dept. Just got a pretty handy upgrade in +Wingard, +Scully & maybe, +Birchall. That will definitely increase our capability with regard to faster & more direct ball movement; however, it doesn’t mean we’ll use it as Clarko will (likely) again favour the defensive approach.

The more that idiot clubs & commentators under-value our forwardline, the less they’ll see it coming when we get it right. I reckon we’re Cogs & a KPD away from another sustained campaign for repeat premierships. Add a 40+ KPF & they may as well give us the 2020 - 2023 flags now.
 

Abasi

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Thread starter Moderator #3,023
http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-01-05/who-has-the-best-forwards-we-rank-every-club
Some more evidence of headf***ing on display here.
How anyone can validate our fwd line as 9th best is clearly not seeing straight.🙄
How many teams can boast 5 of their starting 6 fwd have been AA with 2 from last years side? How many starting 6's can claim 17 flags between them? How many have the leading goalkicker and the player of the finals in the VFL as backup?:drunk:
I don't think we are in the top 4 best fwd lines in the comp, as 3 of our 6 have played their best footy, but the other 3 are at their prime right now, so I think 9th is a real poor assessment of where we are at.
Port's forward line consists of a kid who has not even debuted, a key forward who's never kicked 50 goals, a CHF who rarely plays there, a resting midfielder who almost fell off the perch in 2018 and a second ruckman.

but of course, Hawthorn with 3 forwards who have kicked 50+ goals is ranked lower....despite adding a 4th.

The thing about these lists is that they're a prediction, I am assuming, and so you really get a feel for just how badly some of these 'experts' want Hawthornn to just go away.
 
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