Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Sky]

I think it’s the right move - Saints and Eagles should be following

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

That's what North said before and during the start of the David Noble era.

I think Hawthorn may have bitten off more than they can chew

David Noble. There’s your problem, the bloke couldn’t coach. You’re forgetting North got in that mess because they hired a young coach and then let him fall into a whole with no support until he was that mentally slammed that he had to quit.

All of North’s woes have zero relevance to Hawthorn.

 

[Ashman23]

WTF. I have never seen this level of blatant tanking acceptance by a club. Sam Mitchell outright said he wanted to tank and not meddle around in the middle. Their trade period.

Are the ******* AFL going to step in and do something? AFL need to go down hard on Hawks and strip them of picks

I've never seen another club purposely and blatantly tank. It's unfair they are doing that to obtain a generational player in Harley Reid

They are completely compromising the draft!!!

Says the supporter of a team that contains a good portion of Premiership players and finished lower than us this year.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Not sure they'd finish below us even if they went the tank.

It would be pretty fun watching WCE, NM and Hawthorn all competing on who could come last.

Best tip I could give is get Longmire in to coach and tell him every game is a GF.

 

[Red Bull]

Mitchell tried the fire sale last year and he’s on the money.
His problem will inevitably be weak board members who haven’t got the stones to go the full rebuild distance when the losses mount …

 

[Power Play]

Hawthorn did the same thing two decades ago by trading out the likes of Chick, Rawlings, Graham, Hay and Thompson as they embraced the rebuild. Ironically, it was after Schwab had tried to push for a flag before getting sacked for Clarkson, similar to what Clarkson tried to do before getting sacked for Mitchell.

However, it was a lot easier to build a team from ground zero back then, as there were priority picks handed out for teams that won less than 5 games, and there were no academy or free agency compensation picks diluting the draft back then either.

It's clear Mitchell wants to build a team from the draft, like Clarkson did when he first started. Hawthorn don't build teams aimed at being competitive and making finals, they build teams aimed at winning premierships while having a high, but relatively short peak at the top.

Hawthorn winning 4 flags from 8 top 4 finishes in 10 finals series during the Clarkson era is the sort of peak they aim for. This is different to Geelong and Sydney, who aim for a longer, but more gradual and sustained peak at the top.

 

[PrinceCharles]

WTF. I have never seen this level of blatant tanking acceptance by a club. Sam Mitchell outright said he wanted to tank and not meddle around in the middle. Their trade period.

Are the ******* AFL going to step in and do something? AFL need to go down hard on Hawks and strip them of picks

I've never seen another club purposely and blatantly tank. It's unfair they are doing that to obtain a generational player in Harley Reid

They are completely compromising the draft!!!

You don't know what 'tanking' means.

 

[Xtreme]

Hawthorn won't be anywhere close to flag over the next decade, which will destroy their notoriously fair weather supporter base

Will win a premiership before Richmond do.
Nothing surer

 

[Captain_Bender]

Will win a premiership before Richmond do.
Nothing surer

Not with Sam Mitchell

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Will win a premiership before Richmond do.
Nothing surer

Now I dislike Richmond as much as anyone here but that's just nonsense.

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest we won't see Hawthorn back in the finals before the decade is out.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Mitchell tried the fire sale last year and he’s on the money.
His problem will inevitably be weak board members who haven’t got the stones to go the full rebuild distance when the losses mount …

Part of the problem I think with their current list strategy is that Mitchell and Hawthorn board are banking on helping fill their list/rebuild by getting star players via Free Agency and Trades over the next 5 years.

Trouble is, they are no longer a destination club and no one really (unless they are mercenaries) wants to go to locked in bottom 4 club for.the next 3 years at least, yes I know they signed Karl Amon, but I don't think he is all that great, quite frankly.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest we won't see Hawthorn back in the finals before the decade is out.

Literally no club in the comp is ever 7 years away from finals, and it amazes me that people throw this sort of hyperbole out there when we continually see teams climb from the bottom rungs to finals in 3 and 4 years.


Brisbane spoon 2017 - top 4 2020
St Kilda 16th in 2018 - finals 2020
Sydney 16th in 2020 - grand finalists 2022
Collingwood 17th in 2021 - prelim finalists 2022

 

[Blackhawk42]

Part of the problem I think with their current list strategy is that Mitchell and Hawthorn board are banking on helping fill their list/rebuild by getting star players via Free Agency and Trades over the next 5 years.

Trouble is, they are no longer a destination club and no one really (unless they are mercenaries) wants to go to locked in bottom 4 club for.the next 3 years at least, yes I know they signed Karl Amon, but I don't think he is all that great, quite frankly.

It's okay to have differing opinions, but Amon has had a better past 24 months than Adam Cerra who your side paid a first round draft pick to acquire.
We got him for nothing via free agency and he adds something to our list that has been completely absent. A smooth moving midfielder capable of breaking lines with his kicking ability.

There is also a consensus that Lloyd Meek would have been a number 1 ruck if he wasn't stuck behind Sean Darcy. 8 clubs asked the question about him and he chose us.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Part of the problem I think with their current list strategy is that Mitchell and Hawthorn board are banking on helping fill their list/rebuild by getting star players via Free Agency and Trades over the next 5 years.

Trouble is, they are no longer a destination club and no one really (unless they are mercenaries) wants to go to locked in bottom 4 club for.the next 3 years at least, yes I know they signed Karl Amon, but I don't think he is all that great, quite frankly.

You’ve got a really bad read on this if that’s what you think.

They’re not banking on free agency, they’re banking on the rise of players through development, like we’ve seen in a short period from Newcombe, Moore, Lewis, Maginness, CJ, Reeves etc.

 

[Back Pocket Rocket]

Bit rich coming from an Eagles fan who are kings of the tank.

2010 - 16th
2011 - 4th

2018 - 1st
2022 - 17th

 

[Jim Prideaux]

That's what North said before and during the start of the David Noble era.

I think Hawthorn may have bitten off more than they can chew

Colour me shocked to see you having a negative opinion regarding the hawks. Didn’t you have a tweet surface recently?

 

[brutus76]

Well they have to do it now as North will prob get compo picks again next year and if Tassie come in 2025 or 2026 you wanna have all your young kids in and ready to ascend the ladder not try to rebuild on the run with compromised Drafts and FA rules for when Tassie comes

 

[StillAtLarge]

I'd have kept at least one of the 3 vets they traded around for their leadership/mentoring. North gutted all their vets in 2016 and they've never really recovered.
Unlike North they've actually gotten something back for them, so that's something. Jury's out on whether Sicily or whoever takes over is captain material.

This is a rational take. I wasn't too thrilled about losing O'Meara once the Mitchell trade looked likely- however, Meek is a great acquisition and the club obviously rates the leadership of Sicily, Moore, Hardwick (likely VC), Impey et al. It's almost indisputable that Mitchell has a solid track record of developing young players so if we draft well this year + next I think we'll be well placed for a sustainable crack at finals, provided he also has the tactical acumen required (jury's still out on this obviously)

 

[markm106]

We’ll probably know more about actual tanking next year. If Meek is playing in the back pocket on Rankine or something like that. Mitchell is obviously quiet aware they aren’t making finals even with the guys they traded. TBH I think they cut too deep and reminds me of the Dees when we got rid of a lot of experience all at once. The hawks are a far more professional outfit so perhaps can make this work.
I’ve watched the Harley Reid highlights though and suspect they are happy for a wooden spoon to take him at one next year.

 

[theiaofseed]

Part of the problem I think with their current list strategy is that Mitchell and Hawthorn board are banking on helping fill their list/rebuild by getting star players via Free Agency and Trades over the next 5 years.

Trouble is, they are no longer a destination club and no one really (unless they are mercenaries) wants to go to locked in bottom 4 club for.the next 3 years at least, yes I know they signed Karl Amon, but I don't think he is all that great, quite frankly.

Well there's your problem.

Nothing Mitchell and Mckenzie have said would lead anyone to think theyre planning around trading or free agency in fact it's the polar opposite

 

[Messenger]

This is a great thread. An Eagles fan raising the alarm on tanking having watched a team of recent premiership players s**t the bed for twelve months.

 

[Messenger]

Part of the problem I think with their current list strategy is that Mitchell and Hawthorn board are banking on helping fill their list/rebuild by getting star players via Free Agency and Trades over the next 5 years.

Trouble is, they are no longer a destination club and no one really (unless they are mercenaries) wants to go to locked in bottom 4 club for.the next 3 years at least, yes I know they signed Karl Amon, but I don't think he is all that great, quite frankly.

I’m reliably informed professional footballers like money.

I doubt Hawthorn will be fishing for “big name” UFA’s in the next couple of year but will use the FA process to bring in the players from the next tier down.

That a better idea that reading for them from our current position.

 

[Wojcinski]

OP is mad because his team is also tanking and is about to get out-tanked

 

[Back Pocket Rocket]

OP is mad because his team is also tanking and is about to get out-tanked

And there in lies the theory behind this thread.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Deciding to bottom out 7 years after a premiership is for sure an interesting strategy.