Preview Hawthorn v Carlton

[Ned Ryerson]

Look you are probably right in that I am being overly critical. It is probably because I was watching him closer then the other players, as I was just interested to see how he went.

He did do some nice things, but he also made some howlers. As I said previously these are amplified in defense because it often results in an opposition score.

Having said that Birchall also made plenty of howlers, but that is more uncharacteristic of him. Birchall is a proven player, so we know what he can produce.

But as I have said perviously, he does deserve to hold his spot for the rest of the H&A. Then I will back Clarko and Co to make the right call, whether that be he stays or goes.

Anyway apologies for derailing the thread on Brand.

Lets just hope we belt those blue baggers and move into prime location on the squiggle . And of course tighten our hold on 1st place.

I wouldn't apologise - it was a decent opinion, not clouded by ill-formed decisions and you were willing to discuss the issue like an adult. Great argument, would read again, delivered as advertised. A++++++++++++++

 

[hawkheart]

Agreed, in terms of his first 7 games then he compares favorably to any of the gun back men in the compeition at present, by the time he gets to 50 games I think he will be a gun CHB of the competition.

I think MC_9 was specifically referring to this year and I don't share his concern but understand why some might, for me he is holding his own in defense but the biggest impact is the flow on effect he has in releasing other players such as Gibson, Stratton and even Hodge/Burgoyne to go and do what they do best instead of worrying about the team defense on a 2nd key forward, invaluable.

Interesting. Just wondering, opposition coaches no doubt recognise the role brand is allowing others in defence to play - and presumably they don't want Gibbo / Hodge / Stratts etc. free, so how do they counter? Look for brand's opponent all the time, putting pressure on backline' least experienced member? And how does Clarko counter the counter?

 

[cryptor]

Interesting. Just wondering, opposition coaches no doubt recognise the role brand is allowing others in defence to play - and presumably they don't want Gibbo / Hodge / Stratts etc. free, so how do they counter? Look for brand's opponent all the time, putting pressure on backline' least experienced member? And how does Clarko counter the counter?

I'd say let them go for it. If they're going to waste every entry on going to his man who is not going to be the best option every time then let them. As long as there is pressure coming from the midfied then the entries should come in slow enough to allow someone to peel off to help him out. Not that I think he needs it all that often as he's pretty solid one on one.

 

[Dipper]

One loss and we'll be just one loss away from 6th.

As long as we keep winning percentage won't be necessary but we should be aiming to play in a way that builds our form for finals which in turn should see our percentage build also. Get it up to around 130% by the North Melbourne game and we should be pretty safe.

Percentage is irrelevant when you consider ours in relation to the clubs on 5 losses. If we lose 2 more games then it will be almost impossible for us to have a percentage above any of those sides who will have suffered no further defeats for it to matter.


We really need to make sure that we don't give North a chance because lose that and suddenly there might be a lot of pressure involved in the trip to WA.

 

[WWSD]

Jonathan O'Rourke played a solid game last week against Richmond.

He hasn't played a lot of senior footy the last two years but that was his best performance for Hawthorn to this point.

I hope the coaching staff persist with him. It will be a great learning experience for O'Rourke if he can keep his spot for the finals.

I believe he can become a handy midfielder alongside Shiels, Lewis and co if he can get a decent run at it.

 

[cryptor]

Percentage is irrelevant when you consider ours in relation to the clubs on 5 losses. If we lose 2 more games then it will be almost impossible for us to have a percentage above any of those sides who will have suffered no further defeats for it to matter.


We really need to make sure that we don't give North a chance because lose that and suddenly there might be a lot of pressure involved in the trip to WA.

This is likely true. However our results suggest if we do lose it'll be close games that won't hurt our percentage a lot. While these other teams percentages will drop if they aren't winning by more than 1.3x their opponents score every week. This won't exactly be hard to do for them but their percentage isn't likely to be going too far north of where it is while we have plenty of room to move with some good wins over the next couple weeks. We only need to score more than we're scored against by about 120 points over the next 5 weeks to reach that 130% range. Give Carlton a spankin this week and we could be halfway there already.

Not a huge priority given like you said the unlikelihood of the circumstances occurring, but would hate to think we'd miss out on top 4 because we hadn't put in a little bit of extra effort to cover our ass.

 

[MistyAvalon]

Lots of goals will do the job.

 

[Thaihawk]

Yeah... not this one.

My dicky ticker officially requests that if we have to drop a game, let Bucks and his pies win when we are in a position where we can't be knocked from top spot, but a loss would be a serious wake up call heading into the finals.

 

[Thaihawk]

Absolutely. As much as I love our 'Big 4' of the defensive unit (Chips, Birch, Strats and Gibbo) none of them are really renowned for those intercept marks except maybe Birchall. Having Brand being able to do that adds a new dimension to our defense, and I dare say there is a correlation to his selection and our points conceded dropping.

I disagree, I reckon they all have taken their share of intercept marks, but maybe not against resting rucks.

 

[Gralin]

I disagree, I reckon they all have taken their share of intercept marks, but maybe not against resting rucks.

Gibbo leads the team and then Stratton then Birch and Chip then Doc then Burgers then Lewis
on average per game it goes
Gibbo
Hodge
Stratton
Chip
Brand
Birch/Doc

All of those blokes average between 7.3 and 4.9 intercept possessions a game. This gives you an idea of how well he fits into our game plan

 

[Gralin]

Absolutely. As much as I love our 'Big 4' of the defensive unit (Chips, Birch, Strats and Gibbo) none of them are really renowned for those intercept marks except maybe Birchall. Having Brand being able to do that adds a new dimension to our defense, and I dare say there is a correlation to his selection and our points conceded dropping.

I'd say its part of the knock on effect. Brand on the resting ruck or second tall allows everyone to move down one. Stratton and Gibbo are not playing against opponents with as much of a height difference. This allows them to play their more natural and attacking games, and leave their opponents to help out.

Add to that we are slowly tightening the screws up the ground and there are less opportunities for opponents to score to begin with

 

[Dipper]

This is likely true. However our results suggest if we do lose it'll be close games that won't hurt our percentage a lot. While these other teams percentages will drop if they aren't winning by more than 1.3x their opponents score every week. This won't exactly be hard to do for them but their percentage isn't likely to be going too far north of where it is while we have plenty of room to move with some good wins over the next couple weeks. We only need to score more than we're scored against by about 120 points over the next 5 weeks to reach that 130% range. Give Carlton a spankin this week and we could be halfway there already.

Not a huge priority given like you said the unlikelihood of the circumstances occurring, but would hate to think we'd miss out on top 4 because we hadn't put in a little bit of extra effort to cover our ass.

Yeah I was thinking about that, and whilst it's true that it doesn't hurt our percentage as much to have a close loss while it's where it is if we get it above 130 and then lose a close one then we're in the same boat as those above us.

You could argue that keeping our foot hard to the pedal in the next 2 games might increase our chances of copping a loss against North as well.

I'm more about the squiggle in regards to big wins, the way we're tracking we're moving closer to that premiership winning space while others are moving away. I think our percentage is something like 147 since losing to Sydney so I'm very encouraged by how we're going but I think it would be a 500/1 shot to lose 2 games and Adelaide, Sydney, GWS, Geelong win all theirs and we end up with a higher % than any of them.

It strikes me that the coaches aren't putting it to the team that percentage is important, I think they might find more value in trying a few things and seeing how JOR and WX can perform with a view to both cementing a spot for finals.

If we smashed our percentage up hugely I know that I'd have that jizzy feeling but the rational part might think we've peaked a little early.

 

[Hawkk]

Percentage is irrelevant when you consider ours in relation to the clubs on 5 losses. If we lose 2 more games then it will be almost impossible for us to have a percentage above any of those sides who will have suffered no further defeats for it to matter.


We really need to make sure that we don't give North a chance because lose that and suddenly there might be a lot of pressure involved in the trip to WA.

Agreed. That said with top 6 teams set to play each other over the next 5 rounds (i.e. Cats v Dogs, Crows v Eagles, Giants v Eagles, Eagles v Hawks) there should be enough seperation in the top 4 to ensure we make top 4 even if we drop 2 games in the run home.

Its so vital we pick up the next two games, then we can recalibrate from there...

 

[cryptor]

Yeah I was thinking about that, and whilst it's true that it doesn't hurt our percentage as much to have a close loss while it's where it is if we get it above 130 and then lose a close one then we're in the same boat as those above us.

You could argue that keeping our foot hard to the pedal in the next 2 games might increase our chances of copping a loss against North as well.

I'm more about the squiggle in regards to big wins, the way we're tracking we're moving closer to that premiership winning space while others are moving away. I think our percentage is something like 147 since losing to Sydney so I'm very encouraged by how we're going but I think it would be a 500/1 shot to lose 2 games and Adelaide, Sydney, GWS, Geelong win all theirs and we end up with a higher % than any of them.

It strikes me that the coaches aren't putting it to the team that percentage is important, I think they might find more value in trying a few things and seeing how JOR and WX can perform with a view to both cementing a spot for finals.

If we smashed our percentage up hugely I know that I'd have that jizzy feeling but the rational part might think we've peaked a little early.

I've been thinking about this a little since my last post. I reckon we'll only drop one of the North or West Coast games, not both. We haven't lost 2 in a row in ages and we're not going to start here with two out of form teams. If we do lose to both of them or to any of the others in our last 5 weeks then we won't be going far in finals anyway.

We either hold top spot from here or we're cooked.

 

[Rushed_Behind]

Probably one of the most lacklustre preview threads in memory. Not many opposition supporters either which is strange.

 

[StillAtLarge]

In York Park we shall play the blues
Ten dark long years v us they lose

Still I hate them with a passion for I remember every thrashing,
that they gave us in the 90s
while I cried into my nike's

Madden, Williams, SOS and Sticks
Their team was filled with f#cking pricks
So when that fall from grace occured I got off on them eating turd

But this year's Carlton ain't the same despite their colours and their name
Post lemonade & sars-ing Michael they're almost (whispers) "likeable"

Instilling teamwork, heart and hunger, no longer brown bags tables under
They've beat the cats, the pies and port and in their losses they have fought

So we will need to bring our best: the swans and eagles will attest,
to extend this great winning streak
so I can watch their sad fans weep

And pine for days of rorting caps
"Stand by your man" and dodging tax

 

[Dipper]

I've been thinking about this a little since my last post. I reckon we'll only drop one of the North or West Coast games, not both. We haven't lost 2 in a row in ages and we're not going to start here with two out of form teams. If we do lose to both of them or to any of the others in our last 5 weeks then we won't be going far in finals anyway.

We either hold top spot from here or we're cooked.

I agree and if we assume that the other 3 games are a given( & if we lost any then we probably wouldn't go far) then the North game is huge, for a number of reasons it will have a finals intensity, from our perspective because it is the must win game, for them because of where they are, and then there is also their chippy, snarly attitude towards us. We only won by a small margin last time as well, if heaven forbid we lost what no doubts will be a tough affair then the WC game takes on a whole new dynamic. Worst case scenario we lost a bruising affair, maybe picked up a suspension or two(not unheard of where they're concerned with their desire to drag us into a shitfight)... injury...then have to pick ourselves up to win out west. So getting back to our original point of discussion we really want a mini peak for that North game, ideally a couple of challenging but not overly hard games beforehand and go in ripe to put them in their box, which I think means not busting our chops to squeeze out every drop of percentage, and then we can treat the WC game as a free hit to secure top spot.

Like you I don't expect us to lose both of those but I think lose to North and the odds on losing to WC increase, beat North and we'd probably got out there and win.

 

[Davo23]

In York Park we shall play the blues
Ten dark long years v us they lose

Still I hate them with a passion for I remember every thrashing,
that they gave us in the 90s
while I cried into my nike's

Madden, Williams, SOS and Sticks
Their team was filled with f#cking pricks
So when that fall from grace occured I got off on them eating turd

But this year's Carlton ain't the same despite their colours and their name
Post lemonade & sars-ing Michael they're almost (whispers) "likeable"

Instilling teamwork, heart and hunger, no longer brown bags tables under
They've beat the cats, the pies and port and in their losses they have fought

So we will need to bring our best: the swans and eagles will attest,
to extend this great winning streak
so I can watch their sad fans weep

And pine for days of rorting caps
"Stand by your man" and dodging tax

Pretty good, but that's not Eminem, that's like a Marshall Mathers song.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Agreed. That said with top 6 teams set to play each other over the next 5 rounds (i.e. Cats v Dogs, Crows v Eagles, Giants v Eagles, Eagles v Hawks) there should be enough seperation in the top 4 to ensure we make top 4 even if we drop 2 games in the run home.

Its so vital we pick up the next two games, then we can recalibrate from there...

I think the way its shaping up is 17 wins will get us a top 4 spot and Obviously 18 will land us top spot.

 

[JoeHawk]

I agree and if we assume that the other 3 games are a given( & if we lost any then we probably wouldn't go far) then the North game is huge, for a number of reasons it will have a finals intensity, from our perspective because it is the must win game, for them because of where they are, and then there is also their chippy, snarly attitude towards us. We only won by a small margin last time as well, if heaven forbid we lost what no doubts will be a tough affair then the WC game takes on a whole new dynamic. Worst case scenario we lost a bruising affair, maybe picked up a suspension or two(not unheard of where they're concerned with their desire to drag us into a shitfight)... injury...then have to pick ourselves up to win out west. So getting back to our original point of discussion we really want a mini peak for that North game, ideally a couple of challenging but not overly hard games beforehand and go in ripe to put them in their box, which I think means not busting our chops to squeeze out every drop of percentage, and then we can treat the WC game as a free hit to secure top spot.

Like you I don't expect us to lose both of those but I think lose to North and the odds on losing to WC increase, beat North and we'd probably got out there and win.

Totally agree. I'm somewhat dreading the Norf game mainly because what those dirty pricks bring out of us. There is no other team that under our players skin as much as Norf.....and the problem is we often bite back (although in the last game our players controlled their emotions whereas Norf kept on sniping which perhaps cost them the game) ......filthy mongrels. God I hate Norf

 

[Argy]

although in the last game our players controlled their emotions whereas Norf kept on sniping which perhaps cost them the game

To be fair, given their win loss ratio since then, it probably helped them play above themselves that night.

 

[JoeHawk]

Jonathan O'Rourke played a solid game last week against Richmond.

He hasn't played a lot of senior footy the last two years but that was his best performance for Hawthorn to this point.

I hope the coaching staff persist with him. It will be a great learning experience for O'Rourke if he can keep his spot for the finals.

I believe he can become a handy midfielder alongside Shiels, Lewis and co if he can get a decent run at it.

And Whitecross needs to be considered too if he keeps up the form while filling in for Shiels.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Jonathan O'Rourke played a solid game last week against Richmond.

He hasn't played a lot of senior footy the last two years but that was his best performance for Hawthorn to this point.

I hope the coaching staff persist with him. It will be a great learning experience for O'Rourke if he can keep his spot for the finals.

I believe he can become a handy midfielder alongside Shiels, Lewis and co if he can get a decent run at it.

Im thinking when Shiels returns it will be JOR who is 1st in line to make way.

 

[bris tarangau]

Totally agree. I'm somewhat dreading the Norf game mainly because what those dirty pricks bring out of us. There is no other team that under our players skin as much as Norf.....and the problem is we often bite back (although in the last game our players controlled their emotions whereas Norf kept on sniping which perhaps cost them the game) ......filthy mongrels. God I hate Norf

Agree. However, this time I think the hawks will go in mentally stronger. Norf will be in for an almighty hiding.

 

[OzJohnnie]

Carlton preview thread. Let's not let ourselves get ahead of ourselves.