Opinion Hawthorn's Downfall - Diagnosed

[Spursfan]

I heard one commentator (I forget exactly who) on radio say earlier in the season that they thought the failure of Vickery was evidence of arrogance from the Hawks expecting they could take a failing player from another club into their system and turn him around.

But even at the time I thought the Hawks releasing Hill so cheaply (after three gra nd finals... we owe, love him) seemed a little arrogant to me - like we got so used to success we forgot the tooth and nail nature of AFL releasing such a great player. I thought at the time there must be more to the story of his trade than we know, but geeeeee he was always a gun.

If Hill didn't want to leave he'd still be a hawk. Clubs hands tied when out of contract player wants to go home.

 

[LurkingHawk]

If Hill didn't want to leave he'd still be a hawk. Clubs hands tied when out of contract player wants to go home.

Not actually arguing with your idea, but thought Brad Hill was still under contract and we released him anyway?

 

[Spursfan]

Not actually arguing with your idea, but thought Brad Hill was still under contract and we released him anyway?

You were right he was contracted for 2017 at hawthorn. He's one we're really missing

 

[johnoamh]

Hill also, I do believe that Hartung will be at the same level as Hill when he gets some continuity and confidence in his game. He averages similar to what Hill did in his first 50 games, he just needs to back himself use his obvious foot skills and kick the ball instead of meekly handballing it to people under pressure.

Hartung is soft, average kick, average finisher, slow decision maker, average decision maker, short, cannot tackle, doesn't put his 5 points of his body over the ball.

Hartung is quick, elite endurance, valuable link player (at best)

Reckon if he turned out to be 50% of what Hill was at his best it would be a good result

 

[Hawthorn United]

We've lost some classy players and the classy players we still do have are aging.

As much as we have reduced our reliance on these superstars, they still help you control and win games. You also can't take out a superstar and replace him with a good ordinary footballer and expect the same results. It's as simple as that. We got away with doing that in the past as we had 6-7 other stars that would cover for the 1 that was injured/suspended, but now they're unable to.

We've lost class and experience from our midfield and those guys knew how to find the ball and had composure to use it efficiently and effectively by finding marking targets to shoot at goal, or finding a loose player in the midfield as they drew 2-3 defenders. That would kick start our movement with each defender coming up to take on the loose and an easy handball/chip kick to the open player.

We now can't manufacture that open midfielder to kick-start our ball movement and we've resorted to blazing away from stoppages, or turning it over and giving away those goals in the goal square as all our attacking minded players have already sprinted forward.

Edit - It's why the club went so hard to get Tom Mitchell and Jaeger in to help with the class in midfield that is needed. Liam Shiels and Will Langford are your grunt players but they're not the kind that will get you a top 4 finish.

 

[KermitJagger]

Hartung is soft, average kick, average finisher, slow decision maker, average decision maker, short, cannot tackle, doesn't put his 5 points of his body over the ball.

Hartung is quick, elite endurance, valuable link player (at best)

Reckon if he turned out to be 50% of what Hill was at his best it would be a good result

I agree, but those definitely weren't the words used to describe him as a draftee. He was quick, had an elite tank and took it on by foot with very sound decision making skills. He also hit tackles pretty hard, the only slights were that he didn't get contested ball too much and he's short.

I'm not sure what's happened between now and then but he's definitely evidence in the case of why we draft our players too young.

 

[A Cut Above]

For fear of oversimplification we are on a downward trend because there was nowhere higher to go

We've gone from two games clear on top 12 months ago to second last and not likely to rise anytime soon. I think most of us realized a downward trend was coming and were mentally prepared for it but its the violence of our headlong plummet that's difficult to deal with.

I do agree with the OP, we're playing an out-of-date gameplan with personnel no longer capable of executing it to the required level anyway. The game has moved on from precision kicking football, kamakazi run & carry through the corridor is now the way to score. Unfortunately we have a critical shortage of runners on our list capable of winning their own ball.

In the short term, the team is lacking confidence and the easiest way to get it back -other than through hard work- is to keep it simple. Second guessing is making us look even slower and we're playing with zero urgency which allows the opposition to mentally relax when we have the ball.

 

[Pessimistic]

Theres five or six teams on 3 wins 33% Not that far off the pace

 

[James Buchanan]

We've gone from two games clear on top 12 months ago to second last and not likely to rise anytime soon. I think most of us realized a downward trend was coming and were mentally prepared for it but its the violence of our headlong plummet that's difficult to deal with.

Trading Mitchell and Lewis accelerated our downward movement, but should also accelerate our rebound.

 

[WillowSF]

We've had no access to high draft picks for 10 years. The trading period last year was overall poor in the sense that we gave away most of our players far too cheaply and overpaid for some of the new additions. That said, we've been in most games this year and could easily be 6-4. Therein lies the problem however as we have ended up being belted far too often in games which indicates something is lacking...(confidence, effort, experience etc.)

 

[Pessimistic]

If we get our players plus some recruits into good enough shape to stretch our first quarters into four watch out AFL

 

[James Buchanan]

I think a lot of people see AFL as a talent game. Where you need to have raw talent to succeed. These people support using the draft because you have access to the talented players.

Alternatively, you can see AFL as a skills game. By practice and persistence you get better. We had the strongest argument for this position in Sam Mitchell.

If we accept the latter situation, then it doesn't matter if you dont have access to the most talented kids. You just need kids that will work hard enough for long enough.

To me that is HFC in a nutshell. We hear constantly that the expectation is that players 'play their role'. This means that they don't have to be super talented. They just have to learn to do a small set of things well.

 

[johnoamh]

I agree, but those definitely weren't the words used to describe him as a draftee. He was quick, had an elite tank and took it on by foot with very sound decision making skills. He also hit tackles pretty hard, the only slights were that he didn't get contested ball too much and he's short.

I'm not sure what's happened between now and then but he's definitely evidence in the case of why we draft our players too young.

Further to this, I don't think Hartung's attack on the ball was ever the same after he hurt his arm? against Darren Glass all those years ago.

 

[grumbleguts]

what downfall?

 

[Qlder_19]

Unless I'm mistaken we are still a going concern and will field a team of 22 at the G this Saturday at 145pm

 

[tige19]

*List profile in terms of age and games is way out of whack, that is a real concern.
*Lack of quality kids coming through, most seem average to good at best (besides Burton)
*Defence is ageing and lacks any genuine key backs
*Defence has little to no depth particularly in the key defensive ranks
*Ruck department is wafer thin (Cegs coming back should eliminate this)
*Midfield is the worst in the league, we are getting beaten badly in contested footy and now are also losing uncontested possessions
*Forward line looks dysfunctional, this is largely due to the poor midfield failing to provide opportunities
*Development of young mids has been quite poor, whether it be injury or just not coming on like we want (Hartung, O'rourke, Woodward, Lovell, Hallahan etc)
*Game style looks dated, clubs are killing us with their defensive set ups and the flipside is our defensive set ups are getting sliced up

These are the points I can think of, I am sure that Clarko is working towards fixing our issues but it's going to be 90% about list management and going back to the draft to try and rebuild this club. It can change quickly, we know that, alternatively it can be a long long road, whatever the case we need to strap in.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Trading Mitchell and Lewis accelerated our downward movement, but should also accelerate our rebound.

I don't think it will accelerate our rebound as its not like we have found any top quality kids this year in the midfield by opening up these spots. Keeping Mitchell and Lewis only would have halted the slide for another 12 months though.

 

[beta_condition]

I don't think it will accelerate our rebound as its not like we have found any top quality kids this year in the midfield by opening up these spots. Keeping Mitchell and Lewis only would have halted the slide for another 12 months though.

Lewis and Mitchell play this year Cousins and Hardwick don't get games.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Lewis and Mitchell play this year Cousins and Hardwick don't get games.

Hardwick has been playing back pocket so I disagree with that one, agree on Cousins though.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

I seem to recall Brad Hill being a whipping boy last year. Constantly being hounded for being soft at the footy.

Yes outside runners are the icing on the cake but this is what will win flags:
* 4 elite mids
* 1 intercept marking key back

The rest of the team can get away with being solid role players

That's the Geelong model (Ablett, Bartell, Selwood, Corey + Harry Taylor)

Clarkson's first flag + the subsequent flags were a bit different.

 

[HairyO]

Hardwick has been playing back pocket so I disagree with that one, agree on Cousins though.

Hardwick was an injury replacement. He would not have a permanent spot. Cousins and Willsmore would not have played.

And more importantly, the kids at Box Hill would have another year wondering when their chance comes and hoping to get a trade to a team which plays them.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Hardwick was an injury replacement. He would not have a permanent spot. Cousins and Willsmore would not have played.

And more importantly, the kids at Box Hill would have another year wondering when their chance comes and hoping to get a trade to a team which plays them.

Hardwick would still have played a fair chunk of games.
Yeah Cousins has played 2 games he wouldn't have which is good but its not like he's a huge talent IMO.( I do think he will make a solid AFL player however)
Don't care about Dallas won't ever make it at AFL level and I hope we don't waste to many games on him.

 

[HairyO]

Hardwick would still have played a fair chunk of games.
Yeah Cousins has played 2 games he wouldn't have which is good but its not like he's a huge talent IMO.( I do think he will make a solid AFL player however)
Don't care about Dallas won't ever make it at AFL level and I hope we don't waste to many games on him.

So let the list get older and older and dive off the cliff in a few years?

Or do we have other kids hiding somewhere being ignored by Clarko?

 

[HODGEYROAD]

So let the list get older and older and dive off the cliff in a few years?

Or do we have other kids hiding somewhere being ignored by Clarko?

As I Said effectively I don't think it matters all we have done was bring forward the fall off the cliff 12 months earlier, hopefully we can be real crafty with our list management in the next 3-4 years and overturn half the list.

 

[tige19]

Hardwick was an injury replacement. He would not have a permanent spot. Cousins and Willsmore would not have played.

And more importantly, the kids at Box Hill would have another year wondering when their chance comes and hoping to get a trade to a team which plays them.

Dallas is best at Box Hill, hopefully Hanrahan can play in lieu of him.

2017 was a huge chance to play Jono and Lovell, unfortunately both are crocked.