Analysis Hickey vs Longer

Who plays round 1

  • Hickey

  • Longer

Results are only viewable after voting.

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Joffaboy said:
He needs to play like a footballer which means, marking, kicking and handballing.
If he can't do that he may as well play volleyball for all the good he does us.
I was bagged mercilessly for being a skeptic. Well so far Longer has not proven me wrong.
Would be close to worse ruckman in the league, but for some reason the coaches love him.
God knows why.
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I respect your opinion Joff but you're getting ruck work and ball winning totally mixed up.
Ruckmen's bread and butter are their hit outs. Billy is not close to the worst ruck In the league.
If Billy is so bad and Hickey so good why have all our ruck related stats improved since Longer came back in?
A ruckman's main job is to give our mids first use of the footy, which with the way footy is played these days is as important as ever.
Give me a good ruck who doesn't find much of it around the ground over an average ruck who gets it 12 times around the ground. If you're relying on your ruck to take marks around the ground then your KPP's must be garbage.
 

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Needs to be looked at who they actually went up against and the teams played. Longer has only beaten(I use that term loosely) mummy who was on one leg and was well beaten by the othersame when you look at disposls and actual influence on the game/goals.

Hickey was up against:
Gawn
Vardy/Giles
Martin
Grundy

Longer:
Blicavs/Smith (game turned when Blicavs went in)
McEvoy (kicked a couple against him)
Mummy (played on one leg)
Kruezer
Sinclair

Fair bit of difference between the quality of you ask me. The top ones are pretty much AA quality in the last few years
 
Moorabbin Ghost said:
I respect your opinion Joff but you're getting ruck work and ball winning totally mixed up.
Ruckmen's bread and butter are their hit outs. Billy is not close to the worst ruck In the league.
If Billy is so bad and Hickey so good why have all our ruck related stats improved since Longer came back in?
A ruckman's main job is to give our mids first use of the footy, which with the way footy is played these days is as important as ever.
Give me a good ruck who doesn't find much of it around the ground over an average ruck who gets it 12 times around the ground. If you're relying on your ruck to take marks around the ground then your KPP's must be garbage.
Click to expand...


Well it helps having Steven and Stevens in the side and it also helps not playing against the 2 best ruckmen in the AFL at the moment. Longer beat Mumford and IMO has lost or drawn the other games he has played. Hit outs are not the only thing ruckman do otherwise Holmes would be a wanted commodity. If hit outs mean first use of the ball then how the hell have Melbourne was the clearances in the last 2 games after being smashed by maybe some of the biggest margins ever in hit outs. And I have no idea if you are saying Hickey is an average ruck but if he is why does Longer only aveage a massive 1.5 hit outs more per quarter.

I reckon any unbiased person would rate Longer the worst regular ruck in the AFL at the moment because they are smart enough to know there is more to a ruckmans game than hitting the ball to advantage and disadvantage 30 times a game.
 
I'm starting to get really concerned at our ruck stocks ability to actually play the game outside of the ruck contest.

Hickey does alright at times and Longer and Holmes are practically non-existent after the tap.

Considering none of them are extremely effective at hitting to advantage, starts to make me wonder what any of them are good for. I realise Hickey had some really impressive form last year so maybe I'm being a bit harsh but still find it concerning.
 
plugger66 said:
Couldn't be a truer article written. Surely even those wanting Longer in the ruck must be worried by his lack of possessions. If he could palm it like Gawn or Sandilands then it may not be such an issue, but even those 2 dawf Longer in the possessions they get, but he doesn't have that impact in the ruck contests and has no impact at all around the ground. These are the damming stats. 3 kicks in 5 games. 4 marks in 5 games. 25 handballs in 5 games and a very ordinary of 69% considering nearly everyone is handballs. No shots on goal at all. He is 6th on hit outs on average which is above average but hit outs to advantage aren't that good. Every single ruckman in the AFL has at 4 possessions more in a game. Most have about 8. Like I said if could put it to advantage like Gawn or Sandilands there might he a slight case but he doesn't.

He has a few weeks left to prove he may make it but to be honest I reckon these games have lowered Billy trading price as has dropping Hickey. Is there any ruckman in AFL history who has had less stats than Billy in these 5 games. Got to be doubtful.
Click to expand...

Well said , the sooner we get Hickey back the better.


Sent via HAL
 
Moorabbin Ghost said:
I respect your opinion Joff but you're getting ruck work and ball winning totally mixed up.
Ruckmen's bread and butter are their hit outs. Billy is not close to the worst ruck In the league.
If Billy is so bad and Hickey so good why have all our ruck related stats improved since Longer came back in?
A ruckman's main job is to give our mids first use of the footy, which with the way footy is played these days is as important as ever.
Give me a good ruck who doesn't find much of it around the ground over an average ruck who gets it 12 times around the ground. If you're relying on your ruck to take marks around the ground then your KPP's must be garbage.
Click to expand...
this. A thousand times
 
Moorabbin Ghost said:
I respect your opinion Joff but you're getting ruck work and ball winning totally mixed up.
Ruckmen's bread and butter are their hit outs. Billy is not close to the worst ruck In the league.
If Billy is so bad and Hickey so good why have all our ruck related stats improved since Longer came back in?
A ruckman's main job is to give our mids first use of the footy, which with the way footy is played these days is as important as ever.
Give me a good ruck who doesn't find much of it around the ground over an average ruck who gets it 12 times around the ground. If you're relying on your ruck to take marks around the ground then your KPP's must be garbage.
Click to expand...

Agree. a ruckman's no.1 job is to help the team win centre bounces/clearances, by tapping to advantage first then pressure opposition when out of possession or protect his team mates in possession. I would say Longer does that really well. Hickey unfortunately does not have the same physicality. Hickey does make up by providing more possessions around the ground, but if you're losing clearances all the time.. a few stationary Handball from a ruckman does not make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things unless you're a Dawn or Goldstein who regularly racks up 20+ possessions.

So both have flaws, billy does taps/pressuring/tackles really well, he needs to improve marking, maybe clean handballs around the ground. Hickey doesn't help the team much in clearances, (we were bottom 5 last year in hit outs and clearance when he played the whole year) but does help out around the ground.
 
Moorabbin Ghost said:
I respect your opinion Joff but you're getting ruck work and ball winning totally mixed up.
Ruckmen's bread and butter are their hit outs. Billy is not close to the worst ruck In the league.
If Billy is so bad and Hickey so good why have all our ruck related stats improved since Longer came back in?
A ruckman's main job is to give our mids first use of the footy, which with the way footy is played these days is as important as ever.
Give me a good ruck who doesn't find much of it around the ground over an average ruck who gets it 12 times around the ground. If you're relying on your ruck to take marks around the ground then your KPP's must be garbage.
Click to expand...
Good points, and I understand this PoV however from my perspective hitting rucking is only part of the role.
I dont think I have ever argued Longer is better than Hickey at the contest, however that advantage is totally negated by his almost non existent general play.

I also tend to think our clearance work is due to better soldiers in the mids since Longer got the nod.
Steven came back, Stevens came in, Ross in career best form. This on top of marginally better delivery from Longer has been the catalyst.

Anyway, Longer is the ruckman like it or not.
 

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Steven played rounds 1 and 2 with Hickey. Ross has been good all year.

Longer is averaging 6.6 more hitouts per game than Hickey. That's a 22% increase on Hickey's output. What a marginal increase.
 
Periphery said:
Steven played rounds 1 and 2 with Hickey. Ross has been good all year.

Longer is averaging 6.6 more hitouts per game than Hickey. That's a 22% increase on Hickey's output. What a marginal increase.
Click to expand...

Interesting. If we want some facts how about the quality of ruckman each have played against. Didn't notice Stevens name or dunstans lack of possessions


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Allow me to pour some petrol on that fire.

Tom Hickey - first year at St Kilda 2013 (Overall record since 2013 32-64-1 34% win record)

St Kilda record when Hickey plays: 20-32-1 (39% win record)
St Kilda record when Hickey does not play: 12-32 (27% win record)

Billy Longer - first year at St Kilda 2014 (Overall record since 2014 27-47-1 37% win record)

St Kilda record when Longer plays: 10-29 (26% win record)
St Kilda record when Longer does not play: 17-18-1 (49% win record)
 
saintsrfreak said:
If we're wanting to go the route of the mobile, goal kicking ruckman, I wonder if the club is planning on moving Marshall into the ruck on a more regular basis at some point, as we know he can play like a tall forward when needed and has excellent agility.
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I don't think second ruck is an issue. No club cares anymore and that's my point about hit outs. We have Gilbert in there. Do we actually do worse when he rucks. We just need a good mobile first ruck. I thought we had one last year. It seems the club didn't think we had one.
 
plugger66 said:
I don't think second ruck is an issue. No club cares anymore and that's my point about hit outs. We have Gilbert in there. Do we actually do worse when he rucks. We just need a good mobile first ruck. I thought we had one last year. It seems the club didn't think we had one.
Click to expand...
I'm talking about Marshall playing as a ruckman for the majority of the game, Pederson style. That's what you're advocating, yeah?
 
saintsrfreak said:
I'm talking about Marshall playing as a ruckman for the majority of the game, Pederson style. That's what you're advocating, yeah?
Click to expand...


I don't know anything about him but if the club are picking Longer over Hickey I cant see them using a forward ruck as the main ruckman. If it was up to me Hickey would be rucking.
 
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