Hill Bros: Stephen Signed/Bradley wants out

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Joao

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If BHill, Kelly, Martin and Langdon were all available my ranking is in that order, with BHill marginally ahead of Kelly, Martin lagging but ahead of Langdon.
Martin may have way more talent but Ed actually produces to his regularly. He is 25 so doesn't get the talent free pass anymore.

Billy = Kelly >> Ed > Martin
 

Cobbler

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Am I biased in thinking even all of this commentary about Hill is worth pick 5-15 etc still under values him? Vic commentary talks like pick 5-15 would be a huge win.

I went back to the 2013 draft and looked at players selected from 5-15 for the next 6 drafts. So 60 players. From that group of 60 players there were only 6-8 guys I’d trade for Hill in a straight swap scenario. There were maybe another 6 or so you’d consider a ‘fair’ swap. Feel free to do the same and make your own judgements.

In other words picks are and have always been overrated.
No way can we give up Hill for a selection that based on quick research would give you an at best 25% chance of landing a player that would be considered to be at least on par or better than Hill.

If Hill leaves we need to gain a player of known ability and then a pick or 2 high picks to improve our chances of a fair swap.

Hills run is phenomenal.
 

Johnny Dalmas

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Also with Henry being rated somewhere around 10+ in this draft if you get a pick from, say, 10-15 as a part of any B.Hill trade then there is every chance that pick will absorbed in the points cost for Henry.

You want a top 10 pick (ie, before a Henry bid) or a player or a future pick or a bunch of later picks in any B.Hill/Langdon trade otherwise bidding on Henry will "waste" it.
 

purplerunsdeep2

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Can anyone see us ‘tanking’ to make sure we get that top 10 pick... then another with the hill trade... using them both before someone has a shot at Henry, which will force us to use second and onwards picks for points

I reckon GCS will get the compensation pick... and I think there’s a GWS pick possibly too 10

This also assumes we don’t put this as part of the Kelly trade


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mike91

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Can anyone see us ‘tanking’ to make sure we get that top 10 pick... then another with the hill trade... using them both before someone has a shot at Henry, which will force us to use second and onwards picks for points

I reckon GCS will get the compensation pick... and I think there’s a GWS pick possibly too 10

This also assumes we don’t put this as part of the Kelly trade


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Tanking? Mate we've played 1 good game in about 2 months. Trust me, we're getting a top 10 pick. With Hill leaving, we'll have 2, but I still dream of getting Kelly (dreaming because it seems extremely doubtful)
 

tonygeeks

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Am I biased in thinking even all of this commentary about Hill is worth pick 5-15 etc still under values him? Vic commentary talks like pick 5-15 would be a huge win.

I went back to the 2013 draft and looked at players selected from 5-15 for the next 6 drafts. So 60 players. From that group of 60 players there were only 6-8 guys I’d trade for Hill in a straight swap scenario. There were maybe another 6 or so you’d consider a ‘fair’ swap. Feel free to do the same and make your own judgements.

In other words picks are and have always been overrated.
No way can we give up Hill for a selection that based on quick research would give you an at best 25% chance of landing a player that would be considered to be at least on par or better than Hill.

If Hill leaves we need to gain a player of known ability and then a pick or 2 high picks to improve our chances of a fair swap.

Hills run is phenomenal.
You see that ' overrated ' quote thrown around a lot these days but below is a list of Premiership teams built predominantly by trading

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-

-

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-

-
 

rgauci

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If you are challenging and have picks 15-18 trade them. It's what Fremantle should have done with their 2012-2015 1st rounders.

Useless the lot of them.

Top 10 pick and down the bottom? Draft away.
Agree

Or draft talls or elite mature Ager’s. But it’s the idea that a small forward could tip you over edge or give you ‘pace’ that seduces list managers.
 

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theGav56

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By my count their 22 in their last flag contained 7 traded in players.
But there's more.... they traded Croad to us which got them picks for 2 key players for their premiership success, and then they traded Croad back in. So that probably takes the tally to 10 best 22 players, all the result of trading.
 

Yeti

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But there's more.... they traded Croad to us which got them picks for 2 key players for their premiership success, and then they traded Croad back in. So that probably takes the tally to 10 best 22 players, all the result of trading.
You're stretching a long bow with that one. Going by that definition guys like Brayshaware trades?
 

Taylor

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You're stretching a long bow with that one. Going by that definition guys like Brayshaware trades?
If we are talking about building a list via trade then Brayshaw would need to be.

We traded our pick #14 half back Weller for pick #2 midfielder Brayshaw.

We get one pick per round now, no more extra firsts with priority picks.

Fremantle has been unfortunate to not have benefited from the father son rules prior to the points system coming in and not having an academy at all before the same points system.

Father son picks used to be nominated by the club and you'd simply have your third round pick allocated to them. Then it got changed to when another club said they'd take them you use your next available pick for them, no matter when that was.

All of these list management concessions weren't able to be used by us, we were unlucky but plenty of those players are still on the list of the clubs that did and they are benefiting from it.

I'll give you an example. Tom Hawkins was the MVP of the U18s, a big key forward... father son pick number 41. This is the year they got Joel Selwood. Under current rules Hawkins gets bid on in the first five picks and Geelong don't have their pick #7 for Joel.

Lucky for them. There were more players in their flag years who were acquired the same way, there is probably a dozen AA and a couple of brownlow in that group.

So we need more talent and the AFL are closing the doors to it that other clubs are still benefiting from now, it will take some time to even that up and we will need to have a blockbuster few years with the academy.

It won't be a team of father son as third round picks though.
 

Taylor

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Did they not mostly build the 2018 team through the draft and then added on from there ?
It’s probably more doable these days but still


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Shaun B, Brian Lake, McEvoy (after 2013), Gunston, Josh Gibson directly traded in. Hodge was picked with the priority pick we traded them, Sam Mitchell potentially the same.

Their traded in players had a huge impact on the 2013 grand final
 

Cobbler

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If the hills end up at the same club, and we are smart about it, we will use Stephen as leverage for brad. Asking the club to pay overs for Stephen so we get a higher band compensation pick.
Can be considered draft tampering in its most extreme form, but I get your general gist.
 

freo_leo29

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What is Niall's record? makes stuff up or nah?

Reckons Freo think Hill will stay with the club.
 

Johnny Dalmas

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If we are talking about building a list via trade then Brayshaw would need to be.

We traded our pick #14 half back Weller for pick #2 midfielder Brayshaw.

We get one pick per round now, no more extra firsts with priority picks.

Fremantle has been unfortunate to not have benefited from the father son rules prior to the points system coming in and not having an academy at all before the same points system.

Father son picks used to be nominated by the club and you'd simply have your third round pick allocated to them. Then it got changed to when another club said they'd take them you use your next available pick for them, no matter when that was.

All of these list management concessions weren't able to be used by us, we were unlucky but plenty of those players are still on the list of the clubs that did and they are benefiting from it.

I'll give you an example. Tom Hawkins was the MVP of the U18s, a big key forward... father son pick number 41. This is the year they got Joel Selwood. Under current rules Hawkins gets bid on in the first five picks and Geelong don't have their pick #7 for Joel.

Lucky for them. There were more players in their flag years who were acquired the same way, there is probably a dozen AA and a couple of brownlow in that group.

So we need more talent and the AFL are closing the doors to it that other clubs are still benefiting from now, it will take some time to even that up and we will need to have a blockbuster few years with the academy.

It won't be a team of father son as third round picks though.
And if Jeremy had played 100 games for us we still wouldn't have got an AA defender and an OK half-forward out of the father/son rules because we wouldn't have "wasted" 3rd rounders on guys we refused to pick as rookies.

Our problems aren't because of "structural" disadvantage. They are because we have been below average in id'ing talent.
 

Snuffaluphagus

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Sep 10, 2015
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Can see talk of B.Hill and Geelong - what about S.Hill? Much chatter on that without digging through the pages?
Not much. General consensus is that while it would suck to lose a favourite son, realistically, he hasn’t been able to get on the park for two years. No one would it against him taking a strong 2-3 year contract somewhere else. There’s been no mail aside from the Suns on where he’s going either
 

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