Opinion Hinesight v Knightsight v Hindsight 2018

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
Posts
15,631
Likes
13,636
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Chicago Bulls
Thread starter #1
*Hastily put together but hopefully easy enough to follow. Busy weekend so didn't have the time to do it earlier.

Hinesight:


ND:

Isaac Quaynor – bid on earlier than I’d feel comfortable with talents I rate more highly to be available at next pick *38 on draft board

Will Kelly – same story as Quaynor *not on draft board but would be around 70 if I kept extending power rankings – due to a lot of my draft board after 40 being mature agers.

Atu Bosenavulagi – picked in a suitable spot. Just had a few rated more highly *not on draft board but would be around 60 if I kept extending it out. Would have taken as a cat b rookie instead. It would have allowed the Pies to have taken another pick.

RD:

Redrafting: Tim Broomhead and Sam Murray – Broomhead too many injuries and has had long enough. Murray could be suspended for four years which makes his re-drafting a waste of a list position.



Knightsight:

*Would not have matched bids on any of the three drafted talents or re-drafted either rookie. This is my alternative scenario had I been picking and had such opportunities afforded.

First pick: Curtis Taylor - feeling confident Gown will be available at next pick going into the draft with the sense Gown will go very late if picked at all, but know Taylor could go any pick now, I would not let him slide any further, I feel comfortable taking him here as something like a poor man’s De Goey with the same kind of tricks as that talented forward who can win it through the mids *27 on draft board

Second pick: Noah Gown - the priority to bring in as the best KPP outside of Lukosius/King’s/Blakey. He has a lot of a young McGovern/McDonald as a KPP. *21 on draft board

Third pick: Sydney Stack - one of the most talented mids in the draft and outside of Clark WA’s best talent *22 on draft board

RD.

First pick: Jon Marsh – Mentally ready to go and still has game. Could be one of the clubs starting key defenders and if Dunn doesn’t return to his former level could take his spot and be the second key defender to Moore. Worst case scenario he’s depth, but of AFL quality. He’s better than Roughead and every day would be my choice ahead of him in defence.

Second pick: Mitch Podhajski – 191cm mid who can play forward and hit the scoreboard. Has dominated in the TAC Cup and performed strongly in the VFL. *31 on draft board

Cat b: Atu

*Had I not felt the need for a key defender such as Marsh and had I known Stack would slip through the draft, I’d have been all over Boyd Woodcock as a small forward with the third national draft selection.


Knightsight:

*Would not have traded for Dayne Beams or signed Jordan Roughead. Would have traded for Jarryd Lyons, Aaron Hall and Daniel Hannebery during the trade period if I could have for late picks. Jon Patton another if available for a late pick.

*Taking only Beams and Roughead out of the equation.. A draft could look like:

First round: Bid on Connor McFadyen (Bris Academy). If bid matched, I’d bid on Rhylee West. If bid matched I’m trading the pick down to Gold Coast for their x2 second round picks which they would accept, accepting less in the real thing – knowing they don’t want to use two second round picks.

Second round picks x2 (under situation bids matched) = Bid on Jarrod Cameron. Take Bailey Williams and with the other pick if Cameron bid not matched Curtis Taylor.

Third round: Noah Gown

Fourth round: Sydney Stack

Other pick/s I'd carry over to RD not fearing my guys won't be available or if they're not, feeling comfortable with the next alternative.

RD: Same concept as above. Get Marsh and Podhajski. Jye Bolton I like returning to Collingwood. Mitch Grigg if I had yet another rookie pick would be my other - with apologies to Haiden Schloithe and Mitch Maguire who both have greater forward capabilities.

Cat b: Atu

Hindsight:

TBD


Past attempts

2016/2017: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightsight-hinesight-and-hindsight.1182775/

2015: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightsight-v-hinesight-v-hindsight.1118177/

2014: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightsight-v-hinesight-v-hindsight.1082834/

2013: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/hinesight-knightsight-and-hindsight-end-of-2013.1041937/

2012: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/hinesight-knightsight-and-hindsight.981606/




Knightmare v Carlton 2012-2018:
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...-hindsight-2018.1209520/page-11#post-59145352
 
Last edited:

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
Posts
15,631
Likes
13,636
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Chicago Bulls
Thread starter #3
I mean... Murray is of course a waste of a list position but it's more a legal obligation on our end to fulfil a contract before a punishment is handed down by ASADA.
Players can be paid out.

I'm not into wasted list positions and certainly not if it's for multiple years.

Murray can always be re-drafted after his sentence is up if believed to be good enough.
 

Jen2310

All Australian
Joined
Aug 21, 2018
Posts
977
Likes
1,178
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
#4
If we could have paid Murray out, I would have done it. Ever since his suspension, I've kinda forgotten about him. We replaced him in the team and look how far we got. But the club instead chose to delist and redraft as a rookie on some kind of faith. Whether or not that works out remains to be seen.

I agree on Broomhead. I don't even remember what he was like as a player. I remember his injury in round 2? That is about it. But the club obviously feels he deserves another chance given the freak incident. Rookie's get 1 year? I can't see that he gets a game next year IMO. I feel he'll be delisted again, roommate of Brodie's or not.
 

Scodog10

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jul 25, 2008
Posts
16,809
Likes
23,553
Location
The Linc
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Oakland Raiders
#6
delisting a player who gets injured making a desperate attempt to kick a goal, sends an interesting message to the rest of the troops.
Won’t somebody think of the children! How do you think the Sydney squad handled the Johnson decision? What if he does another long termer in 2019? I’m on the fence, but his injury would not have come into it outside his prospects of a long term career which were slim before the injury. The call on Murray was spot on.

Knightsight is missing at least one delistee by my count if we’re bringing in 3 by trade and taking 4 picks in the draft? We’re win now so none of Lyons, Hall and Hannebery were overly interesting to me given they aren’t best 22 at Collingwood. It also feels draft heavy with 4 live picks in the ND too many when the greatest benefit of bringing in guys that are linked to the club pre-draft is the chemistry. In terms of the analytics around squad chemistry our off-season would have been off the charts. Only Roughead, Tohill and Keane came in without an existing relationship.

The other area that we’re exposed is the likes of Varcoe, Reid, Wells, Goldsack, Greenwood and Dunn all nearing the end and OOC in 2019. IMO, we need to stagger their exits so one should have gone this year and in keeping with the chemistry trend Hore was the option as a replacement.

8.5/10 for Hinesight
7/10 for Knightsight.

Hinesight missed a KPF option and left some value on the table in the draft. Knightsight didn’t improve our best 22 enough for 2019 taking into account the extra delisted player/s and the negligible quality brought in from within the system.
 
Joined
Nov 21, 2018
Posts
36
Likes
54
AFL Club
Collingwood
#7
Why should the club have to pay out Murray? Why don’t we have the B results as yet? Ridiculous situation which has put the club at a disadvantage. No way would I be holding onto Murray for 4 years.

Do we need Broomhead?
 

Pie 4 Life

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Oct 5, 2003
Posts
21,739
Likes
9,246
Location
Dragon Island
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Dragons FFC
#8
I thought we'd take another player with our final pick and let Atu slide through to Cat B, but overall I'm happy with our draft. I had Taylor above Will Kelly, but with matching Quaynor, we'd miss out on having the picks to get Taylor for the Roos slid in, and at the picks we originally had (say we didn't match Quaynor) there is no way we pick up a player of equal quality.

Clearly's Stack off-field . issues are a thing, I would have liked us to have picked up Tyron Smallwood or Damon Greaves as two of the better prospects left on the board, perhaps considering Josh Kemp. I do agree that re-rookieing Murray unless we have some inside info that it is not going to be four years - even two is a bit much - is silly. I think Greaves would have replaced that role, or perhaps looked to a Matt McGannon or Angus Hanrahan in that rookie draft.

ND:
Isaac Quaynor
Will Kelly
Damon Greaves/Matt McGannon


RD:
Tyron Smallwood/Angus Hanrahan
Tim Broomhead

Cat B:
Atu Bosenavulagi
 

Saintly Viewed

Premium Platinum
Joined
Aug 10, 2015
Posts
39,259
Likes
30,669
AFL Club
Collingwood
#9
I like the various speculations of how the draft was and could have been tackled.

Hindsight / Hinesight / Knightsight are great names for this segment. Very clever play on words.

Back to the draft.

I’m still thinking the discussion really is around the medium talent levels.
There is no discussion about missing the proverbial “gift” pick eg Swan, Grundy that kind of player.
Though who really thought Swan would be the star he became?

The one player getting a run of possible misses is Noah Gown. But is he going to be at best a career like 50 games or less. Or does he turn out as a 100 or 200 game fine player?

To me I just can’t risk using the 40s picks and hope for the best when you have starring you in the face a possible longer term key defender like Will Kelly.
He just has to get to his dads levels (obviously he’s more athletic, taller) and we’ve won big time.
In other words a very solid dependable long term defender.
To me it’s a no brainer.
And I have a feeling he’ll be the most important of this years haul.

Then there is Quaynor. Again he possess some solid attributes (and Snoop is saying elite hands) so if becomes a key running back player with skill complementing Moore Dunn and in time Kelly....
upgrade on Appelby? Issue of Murray solved by a running back? Very solid one on one defender?

Unsure on Bosenavulagi - I’ll leave that to others, but it’s a late pick.
Irish boys are part of suck it and see.

Overall couple the picks with bringing in Beams and looks a solid sensible haul.
Ofcourse best 22 (best 10 best 5) so meets the rules of trading I believe in (should be best 22 unless it’s a depth coverage for specialist position).

Re Roughead. For pick in 70s is a freebie for depth.
I hope we play that well with a healthy list he doesn’t need to get a game.
That’s what he is, pure depth. For a game that say Grundy is ill, or a need to position around the ground that’s been hit by injury.
He is a basic player that’s true, jack of all trades, no master, BUT has two major things in his favour, great experience including high end finals; he’s a terrific guy with perfect hardworking attitude.
 

sideswipe

Club Legend
Joined
Jun 10, 2014
Posts
1,374
Likes
1,672
AFL Club
Collingwood
#10
Players can be paid out.

I'm not into wasted list positions and certainly not if it's for multiple years.

Murray can always be re-drafted after his sentence is up if believed to be good enough.
The quandary with Murray is that his B sample hasn't come back yet. This in and of itself is nothing short of extraordinary. ASADA estimates that it usually takes about a fortnight from an A+ before a B sample is returned - allowing the player a week to request the B and another week for the B to be tested.

Whilst it is a side issue to this thread, this delay in the return of the B is extraordinary. And somewhat mysterious. I cannot think of a good reason why the B sample result has taken so long to be made public. Who knows? Maybe ASADA has a chain of evidence problem with the B??

Onto Murray's position on our list - putting him onto the rookie list was our best option for now (behind retaining on the primary list). Whilst he is awaiting the B, the only way we get him off our list is to pay him out his full contract. And (exactly the same as the Wells potential payout - hi Scodog10 , still waiting for your acknowledgment on this point), if we were to free up a 2019 list spot, his termination pay goes into 2018 salary cap. So maybe we couldn't do it even if we wanted because we are already up to pussy's bow. I think the club's only choice was to re-draft him onto the rookie list, keep paying him for now in line with his contract and then if he ends up copping a big suspension, the club has the option to terminate him at that time without any further pay.
 

SpongePie

Premium Platinum
Joined
Feb 14, 2010
Posts
3,424
Likes
3,124
AFL Club
Collingwood
#11
Sorry, I just want to confirm what you are saying KM...

You are saying your 3 (despite effectively being later choices) would have been better selections than what we got (despite them going earlier and the points accumulation)? So the 3v3, when looked at the whole, you believe our choices were not ideal, despite being "higher up"?
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

76woodenspooners

Premium Platinum
Joined
Jun 4, 2011
Posts
14,870
Likes
21,058
Location
Sydney
AFL Club
Collingwood
#12
Murray could be suspended for four years which makes his re-drafting a waste of a list position.
The possible options for Murray going forward:

(1) His B sample comes back negative, in which case he’s OK (BTW, seems ridiculous that his B sample is taking so long. My guess is that the B sample has come back positive and what we’re really waiting on are the slow wheels of the legals to turn)

(2) We find out before the March recruiting deadline that he gets suspended for more than two years (Eg: four years) ... would have thought the club would delist him in that case and pick up another player (Eg: Marsh) in which case it’s not a waste of a list spot. Given Murray was re-rookied late in the RD, we’re not missing out much in the way of choice. Would think this scenario is by far the most likely?

(3) Same as (2) but we find out after the March deadline, so we need to wait for the mid season draft before replacing him - not a big deal. This might actually work out to be tactically astute because - unlike the end of season draft - we end up with a free pick in the big pool without much in the way of competition? It’s probably better to pick one of the best mature players in the comp in June versus the 120th -ish best player compwide in Nov?

(4) He gets suspended for two years or less - where the club either keeps him on the list (JT has worked out to be a keeper and even LK seems to be doing well at GWS so there’s good precedent) or delists him in which case it becomes (2) or (3) above.

(5) Have I missed any?

Given those scenarios, it would seem that the club’s actions will end up being OK?
 

sideswipe

Club Legend
Joined
Jun 10, 2014
Posts
1,374
Likes
1,672
AFL Club
Collingwood
#13
The possible options for Murray going forward:

(1) His B sample comes back negative, in which case he’s OK (BTW, seems ridiculous that his B sample is taking so long. My guess is that the B sample has come back positive and what we’re really waiting on are the slow wheels of the legals to turn)

(2) We find out before the March recruiting deadline that he gets suspended for more than two years (Eg: four years) ... would have thought the club would delist him in that case and pick up another player (Eg: Marsh) in which case it’s not a waste of a list spot. Given Murray was re-rookied late in the RD, we’re not missing out much in the way of choice. Would think this scenario is by far the most likely?

(3) Same as (2) but we find out after the March deadline, so we need to wait for the mid season draft before replacing him - not a big deal. This might actually work out to be tactically astute because - unlike the end of season draft - we end up with a free pick in the big pool without much in the way of competition? It’s probably better to pick one of the best mature players in the comp in June versus the 120th -ish best player compwide in Nov?

(4) He gets suspended for two years or less - where the club either keeps him on the list (JT has worked out to be a keeper and even LK seems to be doing well at GWS so there’s good precedent) or delists him in which case it becomes (2) or (3) above.

(5) Have I missed any?

Given those scenarios, it would seem that the club’s actions will end up being OK?
Spot on. As noted above, the time for the B is extraordinary. I was with you thinking that the delay in it being made public was due to some secret squirrel negotiations on penalty. But have since heard that the B sample test result simply hasn't come back yet. Which is baffling. I am no scientist, but my chemical knowledge (derived mainly from observing Walter White and Jesse and never being able to properly test the PH of pools) is that pouring some pee in a beaker, adding some bits and looking in a microscope shouldn't take upwards of 3 months.

Your option 2 & 3 sound most likely. But the delay in the B coming back could hint at some other outcome.
 

pugsville

Club Legend
Joined
Nov 28, 2001
Posts
1,869
Likes
1,066
Location
leningrad
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
collingwood
#14
*
First round: Bid on Connor McFadyen (Bris Academy). If bid matched, I’d bid on Rhylee West. If bid matched I’m trading the pick down to Gold Coast for their x2 second round picks which they would accept, accepting less in the real thing – knowing they don’t want to use two second round picks.
I would have thought if we kept 18 you would have gone with RCD. Happy you did this year. I was going to post a mock/phantom version
No trades I have you taking RCD (and of course Noah Gown later) 18, 51, 56, 57
 

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
Posts
15,631
Likes
13,636
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Chicago Bulls
Thread starter #15
*For those talking Murray - assuming he's out. Someone from outside the AFL who has entered this years draft/ an ex player can still join. Jon Marsh probably ideal. So that can still be worked around.

Sorry, I just want to confirm what you are saying KM...

You are saying your 3 (despite effectively being later choices) would have been better selections than what we got (despite them going earlier and the points accumulation)? So the 3v3, when looked at the whole, you believe our choices were not ideal, despite being "higher up"?
Each of the players I select above I rate more highly than Quaynor/Kelly. To be clear. Note where I had them all on my draft board in the original post.
 

Saintly Viewed

Premium Platinum
Joined
Aug 10, 2015
Posts
39,259
Likes
30,669
AFL Club
Collingwood
#16
The quandary with Murray is that his B sample hasn't come back yet. This in and of itself is nothing short of extraordinary. ASADA estimates that it usually takes about a fortnight from an A+ before a B sample is returned - allowing the player a week to request the B and another week for the B to be tested.

Whilst it is a side issue to this thread, this delay in the return of the B is extraordinary. And somewhat mysterious. I cannot think of a good reason why the B sample result has taken so long to be made public. Who knows? Maybe ASADA has a chain of evidence problem with the B??

Onto Murray's position on our list - putting him onto the rookie list was our best option for now (behind retaining on the primary list). Whilst he is awaiting the B, the only way we get him off our list is to pay him out his full contract. And (exactly the same as the Wells potential payout - hi Scodog10 , still waiting for your acknowledgment on this point), if we were to free up a 2019 list spot, his termination pay goes into 2018 salary cap. So maybe we couldn't do it even if we wanted because we are already up to pussy's bow. I think the club's only choice was to re-draft him onto the rookie list, keep paying him for now in line with his contract and then if he ends up copping a big suspension, the club has the option to terminate him at that time without any further pay.
You are so spot on, on many points here.
 

magpies42

Premiership Player
Joined
Jun 10, 2005
Posts
3,153
Likes
815
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
collingwood
#17
I mean... Murray is of course a waste of a list position but it's more a legal obligation on our end to fulfil a contract before a punishment is handed down by ASADA.
I would say more of a side by side culture thing than legal.

I think with the rule changes coming Beams was the perfect selection to ensure we get the clearances to pump it in to forwards 1 out in the 50!
 

Saintly Viewed

Premium Platinum
Joined
Aug 10, 2015
Posts
39,259
Likes
30,669
AFL Club
Collingwood
#18
*For those talking Murray - assuming he's out. Someone from outside the AFL who has entered this years draft/ an ex player can still join. Jon Marsh probably ideal. So that can still be worked around.



Each of the players I select above I rate more highly than Quaynor/Kelly. To be clear. Note where I had them all on my draft board in the original post.
On this only time will tell.

Ofcourse all of the 6 or so players selected (clubs yours) could be less than adequate or a couple or more could be fine additions.

To me Kelly in the interesting watch (and Gown) because the key positions are simply much more difficult to find and get.

If for example Quaynor is a bust, there’s Appelby and others who fill up anyway. Maybe just at a medium level but you can be fixing a hole more easily.

Ofcourse if I’m not mistaken you would not have taken Beams as presented (two picks)?

This is where the draft is good to couple with the trade period.
Beams whilst not list need certainly enters as A grade and high end talent. Even for say 3 or 4 years.

Beams, Quaynor, Kelly are our main pick ups. Support act is Atu Bosanavulagi and two Irish.
And Roughead for depth, in case scenario.
 

Saintly Viewed

Premium Platinum
Joined
Aug 10, 2015
Posts
39,259
Likes
30,669
AFL Club
Collingwood
#19
Spot on. As noted above, the time for the B is extraordinary. I was with you thinking that the delay in it being made public was due to some secret squirrel negotiations on penalty. But have since heard that the B sample test result simply hasn't come back yet. Which is baffling. I am no scientist, but my chemical knowledge (derived mainly from observing Walter White and Jesse and never being able to properly test the PH of pools) is that pouring some pee in a beaker, adding some bits and looking in a microscope shouldn't take upwards of 3 months.

Your option 2 & 3 sound most likely. But the delay in the B coming back could hint at some other outcome.
The delay seems extraordinarily long.

In horse racing the B samples are sent offsite eg Hong Kong or some such laboratory. Can’t recall it taking three months or more?

You’d think a sample gets sent, gets tested, results known.
Maybe it’s on a canoe being rowed but.... very very long.

If the testers have stuffed up, sample tampered with etc, that might be the bit of luck Murray needs.
Then you’d say to him, son, keep your nose clean.
 

magpies42

Premiership Player
Joined
Jun 10, 2005
Posts
3,153
Likes
815
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
collingwood
#20
*For those talking Murray - assuming he's out. Someone from outside the AFL who has entered this years draft/ an ex player can still join. Jon Marsh probably ideal. So that can still be worked around.



Each of the players I select above I rate more highly than Quaynor/Kelly. To be clear. Note where I had them all on my draft board in the original post.
Always a bit nervy arguing with an expert, but I think Murray has the raw talent and tools to make it...he has clearly lacked the application and work ethic.

We paid a lot for him, and one might argue that is a sunk cost, but we have seen in the past (Thomas, Swan, Wellingham) that misdemeanours can sometimes act as a catalyst to propel the player to a whole new level of ability and consistency. I’d back the club that they have assessed is character as being able to achieve this. I guess wait and see
 

sr36

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 20, 2009
Posts
8,741
Likes
10,854
Location
Vietnam
AFL Club
Collingwood
#21
The thing with Hines boys is that they are a perfect list fit for us, as well as the first two being considerably more highly rated than our picks. Add to that, we know their character well already, thus significantly reducing that risk.

On Quaynor, Kelly and KMs ratings, the vibe I get is that KM is pretty data driven. Defensive data is nowhere near as well recorded as offensive data, thus he's likely to underrate defenders whose first focus is to nullify their man. Apologies if this is an unfair opiniin KM.
 

sideswipe

Club Legend
Joined
Jun 10, 2014
Posts
1,374
Likes
1,672
AFL Club
Collingwood
#22
The delay seems extraordinarily long.

In horse racing the B samples are sent offsite eg Hong Kong or some such laboratory. Can’t recall it taking three months or more?

You’d think a sample gets sent, gets tested, results known.
Maybe it’s on a canoe being rowed but.... very very long.

If the testers have stuffed up, sample tampered with etc, that might be the bit of luck Murray needs.
Then you’d say to him, son, keep your nose clean.
Yes. It is especially weird in light of ASADA's stated timings in it's rule violation management process.

https://www.asada.gov.au/rules-and-violations/rule-violation-management-process

  • The ‘A’ sample notification provides the athlete with a date, time and location of where the ‘B’ sample will be analysed. Generally, a ‘B’ sample analysis occurs a week after the ‘A’ sample notification is received by the athlete. The athlete is advised that they, or a representative, or both can attend the analysis of their ‘B’ sample. In the event they do not attend, the laboratory will appoint a witness to observe the analysis.
  • ASADA will first notify the athlete of the ‘B’ sample analysis result as soon as possible after advice is received from the laboratory. Generally, this can occur about a week after the analysis. ASADA will then notify the national sporting organisation, International Federation, WADA and the Australian Sports Commission (if required).
 

SpongePie

Premium Platinum
Joined
Feb 14, 2010
Posts
3,424
Likes
3,124
AFL Club
Collingwood
#25
*For those talking Murray - assuming he's out. Someone from outside the AFL who has entered this years draft/ an ex player can still join. Jon Marsh probably ideal. So that can still be worked around.



Each of the players I select above I rate more highly than Quaynor/Kelly. To be clear. Note where I had them all on my draft board in the original post.
Understood, thanks for clarifying.
 
Top Bottom