Opinion Hinesight v Knightsight v Hindsight 2018

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Daniel Wells was available for selection 4 times last season. He averaged 12.5 disposals, .5 goals and 2.5 tackles a game. "Clear best 22 standard."

Will Hoskin Elliot played 10 games after his knee injury last season. Averaged 13.5 disposals, 1.1 goals a game and 2 tackles. " Another who should for mine be under the pump at the selection table is Will Hoskin-Elliott"

Can you see where one might think you are applying different standards to different players?
Taking out the broken foot game, he was clear level above average and played very well.
Lovely disposal and play.
The guy is in a different sphere when
Fit.
 

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left at home

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Taking out the broken foot game, he was clear level above average and played very well.
Lovely disposal and play.
The guy is in a different sphere when
Fit.
When is the problem, a big if.
I just don’t see him contributing much, yes he is a class player when fit.
But when will that be.
 
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Well I suppose i’ll be watching Hore closely to see if he can deliver on the big stage just as Scharenberg, Varco etc have shown they can. For someone who has never played a senior game of footy, the wraps on him are huge. Time will tell. I’d like to think the Pies have had first hand knowledge on Hore over the past couple of years and to still not give him a shot suggests to me there are flaws in his game which may be exposed in senior footy.
 

Prochard123

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When is the problem, a big if.
I just don’t see him contributing much, yes he is a class player when fit.
But when will that be.
He's played all 22 games both years he's been with us...

What more do you want lol, he's been more durable than Grundy, Treloar, Adams, De Goey, Cox etc...

We should just be happy that we got a 25 year old top 10 player by position (small/medium forward) who's also durable for peanuts.
 

TradeDraft

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We're both analysing Reid from very different angles.

Prime Reid in 2011 was Collingwood's best player. Better than prime Pendlebury. Better than prime Swan. Better than prime Cloke. He'd takes so many intercept marks and he'd launch the ball 60m to open targets that would lead time and again to scoring opportunities. He capitalised on the pressure up the field in a big way from that gameplan of the time.

Reid is no longer that player. Accumulation of injuries have played a large part in that decline but he can get fully healthy and he isn't that same player.

Reid's ageing process is hardly a first. We saw the decline from Cloke. We saw the decline from D.Thomas. We saw the decline from Didak. We saw the decline from J.Fraser. Collingwood's players decline prematurely - with each of these players declining in their mid 20s and unable to recapture their previous play. Injuries as per your point plays a part in this. But even as they were declining, they all continued to play and were deemed match-fit and Collingwood had no ability to get these guys back anywhere close to where they previously were - and to a worst in the competition standard.

There are guys with much longer and worse injury histories who have been able to return to or even exceed their former bests and others who have come pretty close to. In Collingwood's case they're either falling apart in their mid 20s for the most part and the majority of the rest in their late 20s start their decline and by 30 are a shadow of their former selves.
So why do our Older Players turn Shit so Quickly and the Oppostite to what happens at Hawks Knightmare ?
 
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Well I suppose i’ll be watching Hore closely to see if he can deliver on the big stage just as Scharenberg, Varco etc have shown they can. For someone who has never played a senior game of footy, the wraps on him are huge. Time will tell. I’d like to think the Pies have had first hand knowledge on Hore over the past couple of years and to still not give him a shot suggests to me there are flaws in his game which may be exposed in senior footy.
The wraps say he’s the best Hore to make the AFL’s acquaintance.

Let’s see how well Melbourne escorts Hore through the encounters round by round Hore’s booked for.
 

left at home

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He's played all 22 games both years he's been with us...

What more do you want lol, he's been more durable than Grundy, Treloar, Adams, De Goey, Cox etc...

We should just be happy that we got a 25 year old top 10 player by position (small/medium forward) who's also durable for peanuts.
I was talking about Wells with saintly, who are you talking about.
 

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Knightmare

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So why do our Older Players turn Shit so Quickly and the Oppostite to what happens at Hawks Knightmare ?
I can't comment on the fitness/health guys at the club but those past guys do surely carry part of the blame.

In terms of the football element I can comment. What has happened elsewhere that hasn't at Collingwood is our players stop improving and stop adding to their game whereas elsewhere they're games are expanding - guys are adding new tricks. The focus once established and when in late 20s feels to have been too much focused on maintaining at Collingwood rather than adding new things to their games with a view towards becoming a better footballer year on year.

We seem to have good development in our 1-4 year players historically, but after that there has always been that drop off and I think a lot of those guys really need to have more focus after those first four years into continually adding to their games and getting better. Brodie Grundy has - though ruckmen tend to peak later, so hopefully more can follow his example.

Hopefully we see a more definite change now that the review is done and the club appear to be heading in the right direction. Josh Thomas suddenly having a spike in performance and becoming a goalkicker out of nowhere is a start and something with others I hope to see more of - with Thomas prior to this year exclusively a ball winning midfielder with no outside game/scoreboard impact.
 

Knightmare

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Knightmare v Carlton 2012-2018

Whipped this up for a bit of fun:

2012

Carlton

11. Troy Menzel

35. Tom Temay

54. Nicholas Graham

PSD.

1. Bret Thornton

RD.

9. Jaryd Cachia

23. Andrew Collins


Knightmare:

11. Brodie Grundy

35. Dayle Garlett (Had I known he would drop through Tim Membrey would have been my choice here)

54. Jason Pongracic

69. Harley Montgomery

74. Anthony Tipungwuti

RD.

9. Tom Langdon

Conclusion: A decisive win my way and a couple with my final two choices. Another year I'm kicking myself for now backing myself in over Ben Brown feeling like the ship had sailed, but a learning experience where I needed to trust my instincts. A great result with Grundy at 11 who should really have been a consensus pick here with Tipungwuti/Langdon two of my specials getting picked up in future years.


2013

Carlton

13. Patrick Cripps

39. Cameron Giles

51. Nick Holman

RD.

12. Luke Reynolds

28. Cameron Wood

43. Blaine Johnson

53. Heath Scotland


Knightmare

13. Blake Acres

39. Lloyd Perris (bid would not be matched given he was taken as a rookie)

51. Mitch Thorp

67. Dayle Garlett

79. James Battersby

RD.

12. Isaiah Miller

28. Heath Scotland

Conclusion: Carlton picking Cripps makes it a good draft and their win with only Acres from my group still playing though Thorp and Battersby respectively have continued to play strong football in the TSL and SANFL respectively since.


2014

Carlton

19. Blaine Boekhorst

28. Dillon Viojo-Rainbow

60. Clem Smith

63. Jayden Foster

PSD.

2. Jason Tutt

RD.

6. Billy Gowers

24. Brad Walsh

41. Tom Fields


Knightmare

19. Connor Blakely

28. Reece McKenzie (knowing he wouldn’t go inside the first two rounds I could hold off until here)

60. Damien Cavka

63. Peter Bampton

PSD.

2. Josh Glenn

RD.

6. Will Fordham

24. Nic Newman

41. Brett Turner

Conclusion: A clear win for me with Blakey having success and Newman still kicking on while Gowers is the only one remaining in the AFL though not on Carlton's list having been delisted after the 2016 season.



2015

Carlton

1. Jacob Weitering

10. Harry McKay

12. Charlie Curnow

23. David Cunningham

53. Jack Silvagni

RD.

1. Jesse Glass-McCasker

19. Andrew Gallucci

37. Matthew Korcheck


Knightmare

1. Bid on Jacob Hopper (assumed matched). Clayton Oliver

10. Bid on Ben Keays (assumed matched). If not matched bid on Matthew Kennedy (assumed matched). Bid on Matthew Kennedy (assumed matched). Mitchell Hibberd

12. Kieran Collins

23. *If one of the former bids unmatched Kieran Collins here. If not, Ryan Clarke

53. Tom Phillips

RD.

1. Josh Wagner (taken as a rookie projecting to slip through national draft)

19. Nick Coughlan

37. Daniel Capiron

Conclusion: TBD. Oliver looks like the right pick at 1, though Weitering still has time to make ground. McKay and Curnow clearly beat out my picks. I prefer Clarke at 23 to Cunningham still but that's still TBD. Phillips is the other winner on my side of the ledger along with Josh Wagner who has been serviceable for Melbourne.



2016

Carlton

6. Sam Petreveski-Seton

27. Zac Fisher

47. Harrison Macreadie

59. Cameron Polson

61. Tom Williamson

65. Pat Kerr

RD.

5. Kym LeBois

23. Alex Silvagni

39. Andrew Gallucci


Knightmare

6. bid on Jack Bowes (assuming matched). Bid on Harry Perryman (assuming matched). Will Brodie

27. Willem Drew

47. bid on Brad Scheer (assuming matched) Dylan Clarke

59. Ben Ronke

61. Brodie Romensky

65. Lachlan Walker

RD.

5. Brett Eddy

23. Jonty Scharenberg

39. Jye Bolton


Conclusion: TBD. SPS, Fisher and Williamson early days look good for Carlton. Brodie has started slow for Gold Coast and is another victim of their worst in the competition standard development. Drew has had injury issues for Port and is expected to finally get midfield minutes in 2019 - so he may still break out. Clarke has been good in the VFL. Ronke showed signs for Sydney with a few big games. Bolton continues to dominate in the WAFL. Time will tell who wins out of this one.



2017

Carlton

3. Paddy Dow

10. Lochie O’Brien

30. Tom De Koning

70. Angus Schumacher

78. Jarrod Garlett

PSD.

1. Cam O’Shea

RD.

3. Matt Shaw


Knightmare:

3. Luke Davies-Uniacke

10. Darcy Fogarty

30. Charlie Constable

70. Jordon Butts

78. Cassidy Parish

PSD.

1. Bailey Banfield

RD.

3. Charlie Thompson (knowing would not get drafted could leave until last choice)


Conclusion: TBD. Dow is looking much better than LDU early days who surprisingly has been slow to adjust to AFL play. Fogarty I feel is much better than O'Brien and was one of the best first year players. Constable once Geelong's midfielders retire I give more of a chance to become a regular than De Koning. Butts a year on has been drafted. Banfield is my real winner with that PSD pick and had a better first season even than pick 2 = Andrew Brayshaw.


2018

Carlton

1. Sam Walsh

19. Liam Stocker

66. Finbar O’Dwyer

70. Ben Silvagni

RD.

1. Hugh Goddard

19. Tomas Bugg


Knightmare (with this set of picks)

1. Jack Lukosius

19. Riley Collier-Dawkins

66. Sydney Stack

70. Boyd Woodcock

RD.

1. Mitch Podhajski

19. Mitch Grigg


Knightmare

*had I been in charge I would not have traded the 2019 first round pick for pick 19 and Adelaide’s first. I wouldn’t have traded for Mitch McGovern and I would have used each of the x2 mature agers to draft

Mature agers x2 =

Mitch Grigg

Marty Hore

I’d also have tried for a trade with Gold Coast for picks 2/3/6 in exchange for 1, Carlton’s 2019 first round pick with a view to secure Lukosius/Rankine/Smith.

*Under this above scenario I would have taken.

1. Jack Lukosius

66. Sydney Stack

70. Boyd Woodcock

RD.

1. Mitch Podhajski

19. Mitch Maguire

Conclusion: TBD.


Bolded indicating best 22 quality (ie. Guys who on pretty much any team would be inside the best 22 in 2019):

Players Carlton still in the system Carlton picks:

Patrick Cripps, Nick Holman, Billy Gowers, Jacob Weitering, Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow, David Cunningham, Jack Silvagni, Sam Petreveski-Seton, Zac Fisher, Harrison Macreadie, Cameron Polson, Tom Williamson, Pat Kerr, Paddy Dow, Lochie O’Brien, Tom De Koning, Angus Schumacher, Jarrod Garlett, Sam Walsh, Liam Stocker, Finbar O’Dwyer, Ben Silvagni, Hugh Goddard, Tomas Bugg


Players still in the system I picked:

Brodie Grundy, Anthony Tipungwuti, Tom Langdon, Blake Acres, Connor Blakely, Nic Newman, Clayton Oliver, Ryan Clarke, Tom Phillips, Josh Wagner, Will Brodie, Willem Drew, Dylan Clarke, Ben Ronke, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Darcy Fogarty, Charlie Constable, Jordon Butts, Bailey Banfield, Jack Lukosius, Riley Collier-Dawkins, Boyd Woodcock

*Overall top to bottom, I much prefer my own group - but that's going to happen when you rate them and there are still many of these early stages in their careers or yet to debut. Carlton wouldn't have so many KPPs had I been picking, but with Carlton's bloated KPP stocks I consider that a real positive to their list position - with all other regions/positions feeling like I've got the clear and decisive edge.
 
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We will see.

And I’ll be in ecstasy...

We’ll win lots and he’ll contribute :)
I agree Wells is a good player.

But I feel that based on a couple of posts that Knightmare relies on statistics rather than actual fell or team balance.

I have a suspicion that if you were to select Wells ahead of a fit Varcoe based on 2018 form you would lose the playing group that quickly that you would struggle to win a game.
 
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I agree Wells is a good player.

But I feel that based on a couple of posts that Knightmare relies on statistics rather than actual fell or team balance.

I have a suspicion that if you were to select Wells ahead of a fit Varcoe based on 2018 form you would lose the playing group that quickly that you would struggle to win a game.
One selection would not lose the playing group.
That’s too far a bridge.
That said you pick the best 22 and where the cards fall they fall.

ps a fit Wells isn’t just a player he’s elite skilled. But that’s a separate discussion.

pps if Varcoe is best 22 he’ll play which I suspect he’s viewed that way so it’s a moot point.
 
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Taking out the broken foot game, he was clear level above average and played very well.
Lovely disposal and play.
The guy is in a different sphere when
Fit.
By those measures, take out the two games where Daic's had an arthroscope and the last one where he hurt his knee and he averaged 12.5 disposals, 4.5 goals and a Brownlow vote a game (enough to win the thing in 93) but still got the sack... Time catches everyone.
 
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By those measures, take out the two games where Daic's had an arthroscope and the last one where he hurt his knee and he averaged 12.5 disposals, 4.5 goals and a Brownlow vote a game (enough to win the thing in 93) but still got the sack... Time catches everyone.
Yes it does.
Until the call is made, i’ll back our players.
 

zhoung

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Knightmare v Carlton 2012-2018

Whipped this up for a bit of fun:

2012

Carlton

11. Troy Menzel

35. Tom Temay

54. Nicholas Graham

PSD.

1. Bret Thornton

RD.

9. Jaryd Cachia

23. Andrew Collins


Knightmare:

11. Brodie Grundy

35. Dayle Garlett (Had I known he would drop through Tim Membrey would have been my choice here)

54. Jason Pongracic

69. Harley Montgomery

74. Anthony Tipungwuti

RD.

9. Tom Langdon

Conclusion: A decisive win my way and a couple with my final two choices. Another year I'm kicking myself for now backing myself in over Ben Brown feeling like the ship had sailed, but a learning experience where I needed to trust my instincts. A great result with Grundy at 11 who should really have been a consensus pick here with Tipungwuti/Langdon two of my specials getting picked up in future years.


2013

Carlton

13. Patrick Cripps

39. Cameron Giles

51. Nick Holman

RD.

12. Luke Reynolds

28. Cameron Wood

43. Blaine Johnson

53. Heath Scotland


Knightmare

13. Blake Acres

39. Lloyd Perris (bid would not be matched given he was taken as a rookie)

51. Mitch Thorp

67. Dayle Garlett

79. James Battersby

RD.

12. Isaiah Miller

28. Heath Scotland

Conclusion: Carlton picking Cripps makes it a good draft and their win with only Acres from my group still playing though Thorp and Battersby respectively have continued to play strong football in the TSL and SANFL respectively since.


2014

Carlton

19. Blaine Boekhorst

28. Dillon Viojo-Rainbow

60. Clem Smith

63. Jayden Foster

PSD.

2. Jason Tutt

RD.

6. Billy Gowers

24. Brad Walsh

41. Tom Fields


Knightmare

19. Connor Blakely

28. Reece McKenzie (knowing he wouldn’t go inside the first two rounds I could hold off until here)

60. Damien Cavka

63. Peter Bampton

PSD.

2. Josh Glenn

RD.

6. Will Fordham

24. Nic Newman

41. Brett Turner

Conclusion: A clear win for me with Blakey having success and Newman still kicking on while Gowers is the only one remaining in the AFL though not on Carlton's list having been delisted after the 2016 season.



2015

Carlton

1. Jacob Weitering

10. Harry McKay

12. Charlie Curnow

23. David Cunningham

53. Jack Silvagni

RD.

1. Jesse Glass-McCasker

19. Andrew Gallucci

37. Matthew Korcheck


Knightmare

1. Bid on Jacob Hopper (assumed matched). Clayton Oliver

10. Bid on Ben Keays (assumed matched). If not matched bid on Matthew Kennedy (assumed matched). Bid on Matthew Kennedy (assumed matched). Mitchell Hibberd

12. Kieran Collins

23. *If one of the former bids unmatched Kieran Collins here. If not, Ryan Clarke

53. Tom Phillips

RD.

1. Josh Wagner (taken as a rookie projecting to slip through national draft)

19. Nick Coughlan

37. Daniel Capiron

Conclusion: TBD. Oliver looks like the right pick at 1, though Weitering still has time to make ground. McKay and Curnow clearly beat out my picks. I prefer Clarke at 23 to Cunningham still but that's still TBD. Phillips is the other winner on my side of the ledger along with Josh Wagner who has been serviceable for Melbourne.



2016

Carlton

6. Sam Petreveski-Seton

27. Zac Fisher

47. Harrison Macreadie

59. Cameron Polson

61. Tom Williamson

65. Pat Kerr

RD.

5. Kym LeBois

23. Alex Silvagni

39. Andrew Gallucci


Knightmare

6. bid on Jack Bowes (assuming matched). Bid on Harry Perryman (assuming matched). Will Brodie

27. Willem Drew

47. bid on Brad Scheer (assuming matched) Dylan Clarke

59. Ben Ronke

61. Brodie Romensky

65. Lachlan Walker

RD.

5. Brett Eddy

23. Jonty Scharenberg

39. Jye Bolton


Conclusion: TBD. SPS, Fisher and Williamson early days look good for Carlton. Brodie has started slow for Gold Coast and is another victim of their worst in the competition standard development. Drew has had injury issues for Port and is expected to finally get midfield minutes in 2019 - so he may still break out. Clarke has been good in the VFL. Ronke showed signs for Sydney with a few big games. Bolton continues to dominate in the WAFL. Time will tell who wins out of this one.



2017

Carlton

3. Paddy Dow

10. Lochie O’Brien

30. Tom De Koning

70. Angus Schumacher

78. Jarrod Garlett

PSD.

1. Cam O’Shea

RD.

3. Matt Shaw


Knightmare:

3. Luke Davies-Uniacke

10. Darcy Fogarty

30. Charlie Constable

70. Jordon Butts

78. Cassidy Parish

PSD.

1. Bailey Banfield

RD.

3. Charlie Thompson (knowing would not get drafted could leave until last choice)


Conclusion: TBD. Dow is looking much better than LDU early days who surprisingly has been slow to adjust to AFL play. Fogarty I feel is much better than O'Brien and was one of the best first year players. Constable once Geelong's midfielders retire I give more of a chance to become a regular than De Koning. Butts a year on has been drafted. Banfield is my real winner with that PSD pick and had a better first season even than pick 2 = Andrew Brayshaw.


2018

Carlton

1. Sam Walsh

19. Liam Stocker

66. Finbar O’Dwyer

70. Ben Silvagni

RD.

1. Hugh Goddard

19. Tomas Bugg


Knightmare (with this set of picks)

1. Jack Lukosius

19. Riley Collier-Dawkins

66. Sydney Stack

70. Boyd Woodcock

RD.

1. Mitch Podhajski

19. Mitch Grigg


Knightmare

*had I been in charge I would not have traded the 2019 first round pick for pick 19 and Adelaide’s first. I wouldn’t have traded for Mitch McGovern and I would have used each of the x2 mature agers to draft

Mature agers x2 =

Mitch Grigg

Marty Hore

I’d also have tried for a trade with Gold Coast for picks 2/3/6 in exchange for 1, Carlton’s 2019 first round pick with a view to secure Lukosius/Rankine/Smith.

*Under this above scenario I would have taken.

1. Jack Lukosius

66. Sydney Stack

70. Boyd Woodcock

RD.

1. Mitch Podhajski

19. Mitch Maguire

Conclusion: TBD.


Bolded indicating best 22 quality (ie. Guys who on pretty much any team would be inside the best 22 in 2019):

Players Carlton still in the system Carlton picks:

Patrick Cripps, Nick Holman, Billy Gowers, Jacob Weitering, Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow, David Cunningham, Jack Silvagni, Sam Petreveski-Seton, Zac Fisher, Harrison Macreadie, Cameron Polson, Tom Williamson, Pat Kerr, Paddy Dow, Lochie O’Brien, Tom De Koning, Angus Schumacher, Jarrod Garlett, Sam Walsh, Liam Stocker, Finbar O’Dwyer, Ben Silvagni, Hugh Goddard, Tomas Bugg


Players still in the system I picked:

Brodie Grundy, Anthony Tipungwuti, Tom Langdon, Blake Acres, Connor Blakely, Nic Newman, Clayton Oliver, Ryan Clarke, Tom Phillips, Josh Wagner, Will Brodie, Willem Drew, Dylan Clarke, Ben Ronke, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Darcy Fogarty, Charlie Constable, Jordon Butts, Bailey Banfield, Jack Lukosius, Riley Collier-Dawkins, Boyd Woodcock

*Overall top to bottom, I much prefer my own group - but that's going to happen when you rate them and there are still many of these early stages in their careers or yet to debut. Carlton wouldn't have so many KPPs had I been picking, but with Carlton's bloated KPP stocks I consider that a real positive to their list position - with all other regions/positions feeling like I've got the clear and decisive edge.



I don’t know you but enjoy your input, however I don’t think comparisons between a club that is widely known as having torched more draft picks in modern AFL history and your own is a fair comparison.
 

Knightmare

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Thread starter #271
I don’t know you but enjoy your input, however I don’t think comparisons between a club that is widely known as having torched more draft picks in modern AFL history and your own is a fair comparison.
It was in response to a challenge from Lemmingmaster (Carlton fan). I didn't want to bother the board with another thread.
 

zhoung

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It was in response to a challenge from Lemmingmaster (Carlton fan). I didn't want to bother the board with another thread.

Apologies Knightmare, whilst I admire you putting it out there we both know that it can open you up to criticism. As rarely is there any commentary that is pure, without some bias. BTW which school are you working at, if that isn’t probing too much?
 
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I don’t know you but enjoy your input, however I don’t think comparisons between a club that is widely known as having torched more draft picks in modern AFL history and your own is a fair comparison.
Yeah but still fairly even. I think so far there is no clear winner between the two. 2014 was an absolute disaster!

Just goes to show how difficult recruiting can be. On top of that, the other factor being the club’s ability to develop the young players
 
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Well I suppose i’ll be watching Hore closely to see if he can deliver on the big stage just as Scharenberg, Varco etc have shown they can. For someone who has never played a senior game of footy, the wraps on him are huge. Time will tell. I’d like to think the Pies have had first hand knowledge on Hore over the past couple of years and to still not give him a shot suggests to me there are flaws in his game which may be exposed in senior footy.
I am a fan so i think Hore will do well at Melb. I think we overlooked him at first simply because we had Howe, Langdon, Scharenberg of that size and excelling at the intercept game.

Shame is that of that group... its evident now that Scharenberg is unlikely to play 100 games, so there probably was room on the list for Hore had they drafted him 2 years ago. And whilst not necessarily best 22, he would've been handy and played a number of senior games for Collingwood by now.

For this years draft they probably factored that they now also have maturing Murphy, incoming Quaynor, fit again Appleby and developing T Brown to fit in. Whatever the role we are just too well stocked for mid sized defensive options.
 
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