Opinion Hinesight v Knightsight v Hindsight 2018

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I’m very interested in the mature types getting late career opportunities (say 21 or 22 +) who have done the best and strongly deserved their opportunity.

Straight away our own Mihocek springs to mind.

And Podsiadly.
Geelong Kelly

Who else?
 

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Knightmare

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Anyhow, you've declared your hand that you don't really rate KPP's in the modern game and that you consider a near-enough alternative in Marsh to fill that spot. We disagree on that view.

I agree with you on the view that too much mature age talent is overlooked though. Mihocek is a great example. He's come in immediately and made an impact. Who cares if he doesn't have a 10 year career ahead of him. Most players don't.

I don't think that Collingwood needs Grigg, Bolton etc (our midfield is absolutely stacked with brilliant ball getters and we have higher possessions than any team. In fact we have too many mids and end up filling them in spots where they are not suited like Greenwood) but I can't believe that a team like the Saints, Suns etc can't find a need for someone like these guys in their line up. Their midfield is bereft of genuine ball winners and some guys, particularly athletes, need more time as human beings to mature and get the best out of themselves. You could still get 5 good years out of any of these guys - which is substantial.
I rate KPPs conditional on them being good - either being best 22 quality today or projecting to be best 22 quality in the future. It's either best 22 quality or not at all as bad key position players look horrible but great ones make a substantial difference between winning and losing games. Though my opinion in all other positions works out the same, but I would look certainly at limiting the total number of kpps on a list at any one time unless they've got the versatility to play mid/wing/ruck/medium size.

Re. Grigg, Bolton, Schloithe. Do you regard Josh Thomas as a best 22 player for 2019? I view all these guys as better than Thomas and they're all younger. They're also more advanced than Sier who would need to take yet another step to be better than any of those three - though with his unbelievably rapid progress this season I am hopeful Sier can continue that improvement. There are 10+ teams each of these guys who be starting 22 on for mine if a club was serious about winning the next game. Anyone calling any of those guys scrubs hasn't seen them play these past few seasons.

Gold Coast I consider entirely out of their minds to have passed up Grigg, Bolton and Schloithe if they want a competitive playing group in 2019. Or they could have gone Collins (as they did) with Grigg and Hore for a more balanced group of mature age additions. Any of those guys are walkup starts. And while getting those guys, they needed to retain Lyons, Hall, Scrimshaw and K.Kolodjashnij - even if Lynch and May were always going to leave. They needed to do all that and go get Scully and Hannebery for some veteran leadership and some guys who can set the example. Add an Alex Johnson as a rookie - again just for the professionalism, leadership and experience.

Carlton also. They're missing a midfield. Not getting two of Grigg, Bolton, Schloithe, Maguire I consider a blunder. Cavarra as a small forward or J.Marsh as a mid would also have been fine. And they decide to trade both of their possible mature agers when all of these guys were plug and play best 22.
 
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Knightmare ive picked a trend you’re not really that on about Sier.

Yes admit theres a little bit of play fun about him on our boards. I’m a leader of the Sier fun and posting we have.
Absolutely I’m having that extra fun with him.

But! And here’s the key point.
Sier has been a revelation.
To my eye, he’s a clear best 22 already.

To me he displays an unusual blend of size, vision, hand skill, football judgment and good enough by foot.
In fact I can’t recall a player like him emerging from nowhere so to speak.
He’s a beauty and with size.

Reminds me of what Allan Jeans used to say about Gary Ayres:

A good driver in heavy traffic.

All from just over ten games; I’ll be intrigued when he get and manage greater on field minutes.
Even with his lesser time on field he’s racking up about 20 possessions a game.

Now I don’t know the players* you mentioned but I’ll predict none of them will begin to have a career like Sier.
Just think Sier is trending all the right way and direction.


* yes not really correct of me to judge players I don’t know that’s a bit silly. Agree.
But I’ll guess with the unknown passed up is an indication that they ain’t going to be Sier.
Ps: I only know little about them eg Schlothie (sp?) is a mature aged WA and did well that level etc.
 
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Knightmare

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Knightmare ive picked a trend you’re not really that on about Sier.

Yes admit theres a little bit of play fun about him on our boards. I’m a leader of the Sier fun and posting we have.
Absolutely I’m having that extra fun with him.

But! And here’s the key point.
Sier has been a revelation.
To my eye, he’s a clear best 22 already.

To me he displays an unusual blend of size, vision, hand skill, football judgment and good enough by foot.
In fact I can’t recall a player like him emerging from nowhere so to speak.
He’s a beauty and with size.

Reminds me of what Allan Jeans used to say about Gary Ayres:

A good driver in heavy traffic.

All from just over ten games; I’ll be intrigued when he get and manage greater on field minutes.
Even with his lesser time on field he’s racking up about 20 possessions a game.

Now I don’t know the players* you mentioned but I’ll predict none of them will begin to have a career like Sier.
Just think Sier is trending all the right way and direction.


* yes not really correct of me to judge players I don’t know that’s a bit silly. Agree.
But I’ll guess with the unknown passed up is an indication that they ain’t going to be Sier.
Ps: I only know little about them eg Schlothie (sp?) is a mature aged WA and did well that level etc.
Sier I wasn't a fan of at all in his early years, but he's legit now based on his late season performance if he can build upon that as I'm expecting. Even in Collingwood's most loaded midfield I'm looking at him starting the season inside the best 22. I also don't disagree with your evaluation of Sier though I'll hold off on comparing him to greats of the game - with Sier something like an early stages Josh Kennedy (Sydney) for a more modern comparison. The critical point with Sier is the direction he's trending as you say. Even in 2017, he looked lost at VFL level with only his very last games looking like he belonged at that level. So going from that to a best 22 what I was most surprised about in 2018 - more so even than being a goal away from winning a Grand Final.

I use Sier and J.Thomas as points of reference/comparison in my previous post to illustrate how big time Grigg/Bolton/Schloithe all are.

For points of comparison, Tim Kelly who was drafted last year was worse than all of Grigg/Bolton/Schloithe at that time on 2017 standard of play. Kelly who broke out in 2017 found another level again in 2018 upon joining Geelong and I'm not seeing those guys taking that next step on that level, but that's largely because these guys are all capable midfielders who I'd include in pretty much any AFL club's best side. They're all really good mids.

If they all played for West Coast to look at another club, only Gaff, Shuey and Yeo would be clearly better and ahead of them with Redden in that conversation with them.

So my valuation of that group is radically higher than is the case in clubland as evidenced by that group going undrafted. But when you're 25 or older, that tends to happen with state leaguers like that. Clubs are disproportionately focused on youth.
 
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I rate KPPs conditional on them being good - either being best 22 quality today or projecting to be best 22 quality in the future. It's either best 22 quality or not at all as bad key position players look horrible but great ones make a substantial difference between winning and losing games. Though my opinion in all other positions works out the same, but I would look certainly at limiting the total number of kpps on a list at any one time unless they've got the versatility to play mid/wing/ruck/medium size.

Re. Grigg, Bolton, Schloithe. Do you regard Josh Thomas as a best 22 player for 2019? I view all these guys as better than Thomas and they're all younger. They're also more advanced than Sier who would need to take yet another step to be better than any of those three - though with his unbelievably rapid progress this season I am hopeful Sier can continue that improvement. There are 10+ teams each of these guys who be starting 22 on for mine if a club was serious about winning the next game. Anyone calling any of those guys scrubs hasn't seen them play these past few seasons.

Gold Coast I consider entirely out of their minds to have passed up Grigg, Bolton and Schloithe if they want a competitive playing group in 2019. Or they could have gone Collins (as they did) with Grigg and Hore for a more balanced group of mature age additions. Any of those guys are walkup starts. And while getting those guys, they needed to retain Lyons, Hall, Scrimshaw and K.Kolodjashnij - even if Lynch and May were always going to leave. They needed to do all that and go get Scully and Hannebery for some veteran leadership and some guys who can set the example. Add an Alex Johnson as a rookie - again just for the professionalism, leadership and experience.

Carlton also. They're missing a midfield. Not getting two of Grigg, Bolton, Schloithe, Maguire I consider a blunder. Cavarra as a small forward or J.Marsh as a mid would also have been fine. And they decide to trade both of their possible mature agers when all of these guys were plug and play best 22.
No, despite a pretty solid season in 2018, I don't regard Josh Thomas as best 22. I think Elliott takes his spot easily. I also think Quaynor beat him in match sim last week. He's the first of our small forwards who makes way.

Sier has plenty of upside still as a big-bodied, clean hands midfielder with a good length kick, the likes of which we don't have many. He's clearly ahead of Wills for mine, who is a suspect kick. Sier just needs to build his tank further.

In the case of Carlton, I suspect they think they have the midfield weapons in the future and feel the need to get games into them as a combined unit. Setterfield, O'Brien, Dow, Walsh, SPS need time. I am not sure Kennedy is much chop though and appears to be more SOS protecting his legacy.

Gold Coast could do with the mature bodies and leadership more than any. Saints don't have the talent or leadership either.
 

Knightmare

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No, despite a pretty solid season in 2018, I don't regard Josh Thomas as best 22. I think Elliott takes his spot easily. I also think Quaynor beat him in match sim last week. He's the first of our small forwards who makes way.

Sier has plenty of upside still as a big-bodied, clean hands midfielder with a good length kick, the likes of which we don't have many. He's clearly ahead of Wills for mine, who is a suspect kick. Sier just needs to build his tank further.

In the case of Carlton, I suspect they think they have the midfield weapons in the future and feel the need to get games into them as a combined unit. Setterfield, O'Brien, Dow, Walsh, SPS need time. I am not sure Kennedy is much chop though and appears to be more SOS protecting his legacy.

Gold Coast could do with the mature bodies and leadership more than any. Saints don't have the talent or leadership either.
Sier I agree is better than Wills. Elliott (if healthy) I have ahead of Thomas, but Thomas on 2018 form I'd have ahead of certainly Aish and Greenwood and a touch ahead of Varcoe.

Kennedy I feel can come good for Carlton. Just needs a full preseason. I have him ahead of O'Brien who while talented is too outside and more of a question mark.

Saints and Carlton will be fighting it out for 16th/17th. Even with the Docherty injury, Saints I have at 17th.
 

barrackers

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For points of comparison, Tim Kelly who was drafted last year was worse than all of Grigg/Bolton/Schloithe at that time on 2017 standard of play. Kelly who broke out in 2017 found another level again in 2018 upon joining Geelong and I'm not seeing those guys taking that next step on that level, but that's largely because these guys are all capable midfielders who I'd include in pretty much any AFL club's best side. They're all really good mids.

If they all played for West Coast to look at another club, only Gaff, Shuey and Yeo would be clearly better and ahead of them with Redden in that conversation with them.
I still don't get why West Coast rookie listed Josh Smith as I'm not sure what role he fits. By all reports Smith is a great bloke, but despite his endurance and ability to run he never really played midfield for our VFL team. If WC were looking to fill the gap left by the inability to trade for Kelly it would have made more sense to recruit a known state league mid.
 

Knightmare

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I still don't get why West Coast rookie listed Josh Smith as I'm not sure what role he fits. By all reports Smith is a great bloke, but despite his endurance and ability to run he never really played midfield for our VFL team. If WC were looking to fill the gap left by the inability to trade for Kelly it would have made more sense to recruit a known state league mid.
Smith is depth. West Coast know they lack outside run and probably didn't see anyone they liked left so they thought they'd go for someone who is able to play if required or who could for certain matchups come in and play a limited role.
 

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I’m all for mature agers myself and I think we’ve overlooked them a bit over the past decade, along with KPP’s its about the only area we haven’t quite nailed, but to rate guys that have been spat out by the system ahead of JT on the back of state league form is mad.

Put them in the role JT played in 2018 and I’d be certain they’d be Kyle Martinesque because some guys find their level lower down. On the flip side you put JT full time in the midfield at VFL level and he’s putting up 30+ppg and a goal.

A guy like Kelly is also a very different prospect to those three because he’d never been in the system before.
 

Mark W

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No, despite a pretty solid season in 2018, I don't regard Josh Thomas as best 22. I think Elliott takes his spot easily. I also think Quaynor beat him in match sim last week. He's the first of our small forwards who makes way.
I've read opinions like this a lot over the last month. That Elliott is better than JT, therefore he takes his place. I think it's a shortsighted argument. They play COMPLETELY DIFFERENT roles. Elliot is a marking forward, he is a target. He is a superb mark, he leads with authority..Stylistically he isn't all that different to WHE(also a superb mark), or JDG (also a superb leading forward). JT doesn't play that way, he is a crumber. Hardly any of his goals come from marks, they come from crumbs. He plays front and square. Elliot doesn't, he flies for marks.

We have been really weak at crumbing since Krakouer retired. The ball hit the ground on our forward line, and we just couldn't convert. Dropping JT will leave a major hole that Elliott, great player that he is, just doesn't fill. Wells might, he is a superb crumber. Ate might, it looks like he crumbs, but it's not Elliott's bread and butter. My solution? Bring in Elliot, push WHE or Stevo to a wing, drop Mayne/Greenwood/Aish
 

left at home

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Been on the Sier bandwagon from the the start, has all the tools, size, strength, vision and good speed. Good kick.
Only negative is his running ability as in covering the ground.
As far as l am concerned the players mentioned above as better from state leagues is not right, there is a reason they are out of the system as they were not that good.
As for JT it’s his spot to lose, as in right now he is best 22
 

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frizzle

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I've read opinions like this a lot over the last month. That Elliott is better than JT, therefore he takes his place. I think it's a shortsighted argument. They play COMPLETELY DIFFERENT roles. Elliot is a marking forward, he is a target. He is a superb mark, he leads with authority..Stylistically he isn't all that different to WHE(also a superb mark), or JDG (also a superb leading forward). JT doesn't play that way, he is a crumber. Hardly any of his goals come from marks, they come from crumbs. He plays front and square. Elliot doesn't, he flies for marks.

We have been really weak at crumbing since Krakouer retired. The ball hit the ground on our forward line, and we just couldn't convert. Dropping JT will leave a major hole that Elliott, great player that he is, just doesn't fill. Wells might, he is a superb crumber. Ate might, it looks like he crumbs, but it's not Elliott's bread and butter. My solution? Bring in Elliot, push WHE or Stevo to a wing, drop Mayne/Greenwood/Aish
With all hands on deck I have JT out of our best 22, but you make a solid argument to keep him there.
 

TradeDraft

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Been on the Sier bandwagon from the the start, has all the tools, size, strength, vision and good speed. Good kick.
Only negative is his running ability as in covering the ground.
As far as l am concerned the players mentioned above as better from state leagues is not right, there is a reason they are out of the system as they were not that good.
As for JT it’s his spot to lose, as in right now he is best 22
Not always not good enough. They may not been Great Off-Field
 
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I've read opinions like this a lot over the last month. That Elliott is better than JT, therefore he takes his place. I think it's a shortsighted argument. They play COMPLETELY DIFFERENT roles. Elliot is a marking forward, he is a target. He is a superb mark, he leads with authority..Stylistically he isn't all that different to WHE(also a superb mark), or JDG (also a superb leading forward). JT doesn't play that way, he is a crumber. Hardly any of his goals come from marks, they come from crumbs. He plays front and square. Elliot doesn't, he flies for marks.

We have been really weak at crumbing since Krakouer retired. The ball hit the ground on our forward line, and we just couldn't convert. Dropping JT will leave a major hole that Elliott, great player that he is, just doesn't fill. Wells might, he is a superb crumber. Ate might, it looks like he crumbs, but it's not Elliott's bread and butter. My solution? Bring in Elliot, push WHE or Stevo to a wing, drop Mayne/Greenwood/Aish
I can see where you are coming from.

I think that Elliott can be a crumber. In the past we haven't had the alternate marking/leading prowess for him to play that role. He's quick and can play a pressure role too. Given his history with his back, he may even need to become less of a flyer than he was in the past.

I also see Greenwood/Aish/Mayne as vulnerable as others join the team. A returning Beams likely takes one of their spot. Quaynor and Murphy potentially do too.
 

Prochard123

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I've read opinions like this a lot over the last month. That Elliott is better than JT, therefore he takes his place. I think it's a shortsighted argument. They play COMPLETELY DIFFERENT roles. Elliot is a marking forward, he is a target. He is a superb mark, he leads with authority..Stylistically he isn't all that different to WHE(also a superb mark), or JDG (also a superb leading forward). JT doesn't play that way, he is a crumber. Hardly any of his goals come from marks, they come from crumbs. He plays front and square. Elliot doesn't, he flies for marks.

We have been really weak at crumbing since Krakouer retired. The ball hit the ground on our forward line, and we just couldn't convert. Dropping JT will leave a major hole that Elliott, great player that he is, just doesn't fill. Wells might, he is a superb crumber. Ate might, it looks like he crumbs, but it's not Elliott's bread and butter. My solution? Bring in Elliot, push WHE or Stevo to a wing, drop Mayne/Greenwood/Aish
This.

I just can’t believe that there are some people who watch Collingwood play closely but don’t rate Thomas As a top 22 player. Thomas imo is AT LEAST top 18 player on list if not top 15.

Like you said Thomas offers something completely different to the likes of Elliot and WHE, who both obtain possessions via marks.

What makes Thomas so unique and irreplaceable is just how efficient and composed he is up forward. He doesn’t require other players to shepherd or make space for him, he’s not a completely offensive player that applies no pressure and he’s certainly not wasteful with the opportunities presented to him.

To have this level of impact (38 goals 13 behinds) when he doesn’t nearly receive nearly as many opportunities from our mids as someone like De Goey is phonomenal.

On top of how clutch he is up forward, he’s also effective as an occasional midfielder when rotated there.

Elliot needs to do quite well to break into our best 22, and even if he does, it won’t be at the expense of Thomas.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=5&type=A&pid1=3642&pid2=3376&fid1=S&fid2=S

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=5&type=A&pid1=6485&pid2=3376&fid1=S&fid2=S

Statistically he has both WHE and Stephenson well-covered in all of:
1. Inside-50
2. Tackles
3. Disposals
4. Effective disposals
5. Contested possessions
6. Clearances

On-par in terms of goals, and he achieved all of this with less playing time than both. The only statistics he's low on is the number of behinds per game...

He may be overtaken by both WHE and stephenson in the future, but as of this moment, kinda ridiculous to suggest that he's not best 22.
 
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Knightmare

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Josh Thomas is best 22 in my view.

My fully healthy best 22:
B: Brayden Maynard Lynden Dunn Tom Langdon
HB: Jeremy Howe Darcy Moore Jack Crisp
CEN: Taylor Adams Scott Pendlebury Steele Sidebottom
HF: Tom Phillips Brody Mihocek Daniel Wells
F: Jordan De Goey Mason Cox Jamie Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy Adam Treloar Dayne Beams
BENCH: Jaidyn Stephenson Brayden Sier Josh Thomas Will Hoskin-Elliott
In the mix/able injury replacements: Matthew Scharenberg Ben Reid Travis Varcoe Levi Greenwood Chris Mayne Isaac Quaynor Tyson Goldsack Flynn Appleby

The one selection choice that alluded me throughout the 2018 season was James Aish. He's not one that chokes on the big stage based on past and junior performances but based on his standard of play I'm not surprised by the poor finals series he had with average players tending to go worse in finals particularly when they're not prolific ball winners. As hindsight tells us, playing Aish ahead of Moore/Reid in the Grand Final was a mistake.

Josh Thomas will need to continue to perform. He'll need to replicate his 2018 form or continue to expand his game to hold his position. But if he does, he holds his spot.

Another who should for mine be under the pump at the selection table is Will Hoskin-Elliott after only kicking 3 goals from his last 7 matches and managing no 15 or better disposal games between rounds 11 and 23. Tackle numbers are also embarrassingly low at 46 from 26 games. The way he started the season hitting the scoreboard so meaningfully every week was fantastic and he has the aerobic capacity and is a strong mark, but he needs to improve a lot defensively, needs to be able to win his own ball and push up the field more and find more of it before I feel like he has earnt his position.
 

Prochard123

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Josh Thomas is best 22 in my view.

My fully healthy best 22:
B: Brayden Maynard Lynden Dunn Tom Langdon
HB: Jeremy Howe Darcy Moore Jack Crisp
CEN: Taylor Adams Scott Pendlebury Steele Sidebottom
HF: Tom Phillips Brody Mihocek Daniel Wells
F: Jordan De Goey Mason Cox Jamie Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy Adam Treloar Dayne Beams
BENCH: Jaidyn Stephenson Brayden Sier Josh Thomas Will Hoskin-Elliott
In the mix/able injury replacements: Matthew Scharenberg Ben Reid Travis Varcoe Levi Greenwood Chris Mayne Isaac Quaynor Tyson Goldsack Flynn Appleby

The one selection choice that alluded me throughout the 2018 season was James Aish. He's not one that chokes on the big stage based on past and junior performances but based on his standard of play I'm not surprised by the poor finals series he had with average players tending to go worse in finals particularly when they're not prolific ball winners. As hindsight tells us, playing Aish ahead of Moore/Reid in the Grand Final was a mistake.

Josh Thomas will need to continue to perform. He'll need to replicate his 2018 form or continue to expand his game to hold his position. But if he does, he holds his spot.

Another who should for mine be under the pump at the selection table is Will Hoskin-Elliott after only kicking 3 goals from his last 7 matches and managing no 15 or better disposal games between rounds 11 and 23. Tackle numbers are also embarrassingly low at 46 from 26 games. The way he started the season hitting the scoreboard so meaningfully every week was fantastic and he has the aerobic capacity and is a strong mark, but he needs to improve a lot defensively, needs to be able to win his own ball and push up the field more and find more of it before I feel like he has earnt his position.
My statement wasn't directed at you. And honestly very hard to fault your best 22.

Obviously we have the benefit of hindsight now, but yes, I feel having Moore/Reid in grand final was the right decision even if one of them got injured half way through the game.

Looking at our potential best 22, what strikes me immediately is still the lack of footskills down back. Maynard, Langdon, Howe and Crisp are probably all too fumbly and inaccurate to be the main distributor from defence. I think Pendlebury should play a whitfield role and pretty much stay away from stoppages.

50-50 HBF/Wing for pendles.
 

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My statement wasn't directed at you. And honestly very hard to fault your best 22.

Obviously we have the benefit of hindsight now, but yes, I feel having Moore/Reid in grand final was the right decision even if one of them got injured half way through the game.

Looking at our potential best 22, what strikes me immediately is still the lack of footskills down back. Maynard, Langdon, Howe and Crisp are probably all too fumbly and inaccurate to be the main distributor from defence. I think Pendlebury should play a whitfield role and pretty much stay away from stoppages.

50-50 HBF/Wing for pendles.
I figured, and as such didn't quote your post.

Some class could be added down back and Pendlebury has regressed, but he hasn't shown any competence anywhere other than through the midfield. Last time Pendlebury played back (was it '16?) he had no influence. If the club's midfielder's Adams is the one who looks suited down back.

With Pendlebury, if he does find a second position, I feel it's as a half-forward rather than half-back with his delivery i50 that other strength secondary to his composure and evasion in traffic - as he showed previously as a defender he's not a 1v1 stopper, not intercepting and not hurting teams with his rebound. If Pendlebury can find that genuine second position, that would be a big win, but he hasn't shown it yet.

I also don't love Pendlebury on a wing. He's slow and doesn't cover as much ground as easily as he once did. Again, his better work is when around the ball. I'd still look at Pendlebury as primarily an inside mid who switches from mid - bench but he could here/there have stints as that hf/wing.

Of that best 22, Treloar/Adams can all have their outside minutes with Adams also getting shots down back Beams across half-forward when not around the ball. Other than Pendlebury the only other mid I'm not sure has a second position is Sier.

Better skills from defence is a nice to have, but I'm not going to call it essential. Maynard can roost it and hit some really good targets, he just has the occasional shank in there. Howe and Crisp are serviceable kicks with Langdon a below average kick due to inconsistency issues though he's not as bad as he was. I think more generally the key is - and we got it right this year which made a huge difference towards winning beyond Grundy's ascension was the speed of movement and speed of movement from defence which until last season was each prior season too slow to create any meaningful offence. The bigs also use it fine, Dunn is a good user with a long kick and if he's not in there, I'd have Reid in that group and he's another fine kick.

I also fully expect to see a lot of Quaynor in season one as he's physically ready and able to play a role in defence - and with him what he offers depends on his role. He can lock players down or if used higher he'll provide run though he like Lumumba is a one function at a time kind of defender. And he'll again like Lumumba go long.
 
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Josh Thomas is best 22 in my view.

My fully healthy best 22:
B: Brayden Maynard Lynden Dunn Tom Langdon
HB: Jeremy Howe Darcy Moore Jack Crisp
CEN: Taylor Adams Scott Pendlebury Steele Sidebottom
HF: Tom Phillips Brody Mihocek Daniel Wells
F: Jordan De Goey Mason Cox Jamie Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy Adam Treloar Dayne Beams
BENCH: Jaidyn Stephenson Brayden Sier Josh Thomas Will Hoskin-Elliott
In the mix/able injury replacements: Matthew Scharenberg Ben Reid Travis Varcoe Levi Greenwood Chris Mayne Isaac Quaynor Tyson Goldsack Flynn Appleby

Another who should for mine be under the pump at the selection table is Will Hoskin-Elliott after only kicking 3 goals from his last 7 matches and managing no 15 or better disposal games between rounds 11 and 23. Tackle numbers are also embarrassingly low at 46 from 26 games. The way he started the season hitting the scoreboard so meaningfully every week was fantastic and he has the aerobic capacity and is a strong mark, but he needs to improve a lot defensively, needs to be able to win his own ball and push up the field more and find more of it before I feel like he has earnt his position.
Even at 30 a fully fit, healthy Ben Reid walks into that team.

Did you not notice the correlation between WHE's dip in form and the knee injury he copped against Essendon....
 
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Sier I wasn't a fan of at all in his early years, but he's legit now based on his late season performance if he can build upon that as I'm expecting. Even in Collingwood's most loaded midfield I'm looking at him starting the season inside the best 22. I also don't disagree with your evaluation of Sier though I'll hold off on comparing him to greats of the game - with Sier something like an early stages Josh Kennedy (Sydney) for a more modern comparison. The critical point with Sier is the direction he's trending as you say. Even in 2017, he looked lost at VFL level with only his very last games looking like he belonged at that level. So going from that to a best 22 what I was most surprised about in 2018 - more so even than being a goal away from winning a Grand Final.

I use Sier and J.Thomas as points of reference/comparison in my previous post to illustrate how big time Grigg/Bolton/Schloithe all are.

For points of comparison, Tim Kelly who was drafted last year was worse than all of Grigg/Bolton/Schloithe at that time on 2017 standard of play. Kelly who broke out in 2017 found another level again in 2018 upon joining Geelong and I'm not seeing those guys taking that next step on that level, but that's largely because these guys are all capable midfielders who I'd include in pretty much any AFL club's best side. They're all really good mids.

If they all played for West Coast to look at another club, only Gaff, Shuey and Yeo would be clearly better and ahead of them with Redden in that conversation with them.

So my valuation of that group is radically higher than is the case in clubland as evidenced by that group going undrafted. But when you're 25 or older, that tends to happen with state leaguers like that. Clubs are disproportionately focused on youth.
In my humble view, there may be many players in the VFL who performed better than others in the VFL who were picked up and/or who have played well in senior footy.

It’s a big step going from VFL to AFL. Just because player A was better than player B in the VFL doesn’t mean he will be better in the AFL.

Knightmare, I admire your thought processes, your diligent research and the fact you put yourself out there.

But overall when I look at the ‘Hinesight v Knightsight’ I would say Hine has had the more difficult role in having to assess talent and what is asked of him from the club. And with all of this, he seems to have been far more successful in his assessment of the talent he has brought in than I think what you have been. I must add and without the luxury of making calls post draft.

I still cannot understand how you believe we should have picked up Alex Johnson after he suffered yet another serious knee injury. The kid will be 27 and only played his second afl game since 2012 and went down again. Surely that would be a complete waste of a pick.

And making the statement that Marty Hore is better than most of the Collingwood backmen I found surprising. Howe, Crisp, Maynard, Langdon are well ahead of him. Dunne is a better fullback than Hore. So who exactly is he better than? He is totally unproven in senior footy. The game is quicker the players are stronger in seniors.

I understand it’s only an opinion but I can’t help but think that it’s complete speculation in highest order.

Again I admire the hard work you put in and I do enjoy reading your assessment on draft prospects. The fact you put ourself out there is very courageous. However, some of your comments are very surprising and, in my opinion make little sense.

There’s a huge difference firing a rifle at a range and firing one in the heat of battle. I think Hine has shown he has done a reasonably good job performing in the heat of battle.
 

Knightmare

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Even at 30 a fully fit, healthy Ben Reid walks into that team.

Did you not notice the correlation between WHE's dip in form and the knee injury he copped against Essendon....
At this stage of career Reid has declined. At either end, it's hard to see who he is decisively better than. Mihocek? For mine he's that first depth KPP if there is a full compliment of KPPs available. I'm very open minded to Reid if he outperforms any of the other KPPs or they drop off, which is why I feel beyond depth Reid needed to be retained this year, but he's not what he used to be, even when available. Reid's play has regressed badly and he looks shot, but with veterans sometimes they have unexpected seasons where they show more glimpses of their former self than expected, so I'm not going to draw a line through his name either. I still have him, even in decline ahead of Roughead.

Re. WHE. If you're health enough to play, you're healthy enough to perform. If he shows up this year and improves his tackling, wins more of the contested footy, finds more of it up the ground and gets his scoreboard impact back somewhere closer to where it was at in the first half of the season, then he holds his spot. He's one I have on watch though as there were too many facets of the game he was weak - even with his speed/endurance/marking and through the first half of the season scoreboard impact excellent.

In my humble view, there may be many players in the VFL who performed better than others in the VFL who were picked up and/or who have played well in senior footy.

It’s a big step going from VFL to AFL. Just because player A was better than player B in the VFL doesn’t mean he will be better in the AFL.

Knightmare, I admire your thought processes, your diligent research and the fact you put yourself out there.

But overall when I look at the ‘Hinesight v Knightsight’ I would say Hine has had the more difficult role in having to assess talent and what is asked of him from the club. And with all of this, he seems to have been far more successful in his assessment of the talent he has brought in than I think what you have been. I must add and without the luxury of making calls post draft.

I still cannot understand how you believe we should have picked up Alex Johnson after he suffered yet another serious knee injury. The kid will be 27 and only played his second afl game since 2012 and went down again. Surely that would be a complete waste of a pick.

And making the statement that Marty Hore is better than most of the Collingwood backmen I found surprising. Howe, Crisp, Maynard, Langdon are well ahead of him. Dunne is a better fullback than Hore. So who exactly is he better than? He is totally unproven in senior footy. The game is quicker the players are stronger in seniors.

I understand it’s only an opinion but I can’t help but think that it’s complete speculation in highest order.

Again I admire the hard work you put in and I do enjoy reading your assessment on draft prospects. The fact you put ourself out there is very courageous. However, some of your comments are very surprising and, in my opinion make little sense.

There’s a huge difference firing a rifle at a range and firing one in the heat of battle. I think Hine has shown he has done a reasonably good job performing in the heat of battle.
None of my calls were post-draft. I had my orders each year locked in pre-draft combining my power rankings with the understandings from my phantom draft of where guys are and aren't likely to land in terms of teams and range. As per this year, had I known Sydney Stack would have gone undrafted, I would have taken him as a rookie and taken Boyd Woodcock late, but I didn't know that with certainty on draft day so I didn't use the benefit of hindsight in this activity.

As per Knightsight on page one, and I make no reference to Alex Johnson, I had other players I favoured to him and as such did not select. Specifically by position Jon Marsh. Had Johnson been able to play out the season without doing another ACL, he probably would surely have been retained by Sydney, but that's more when I would have this year looked at him or had Marsh not entered this years draft. He's one I spoke about in this thread in the context of - he's one to watch for next year if he gets his body right and puts some strong VFL games together late season.

I don't have Hore ahead of Howe, Crisp, Maynard or Langdon. Nor Dunn or Moore. I do have Hore largely competing with Langdon for a position and I consider that close, but depending on structural preferences Hore I suggest could be played alongside that group if the club wants to push Maynard or a Crisp or Langdon up the field and want that seventh defender inside that best 22. Hore would be clearly the best kick in Collingwood's back half and improves that balance considerably while further adding to the club's intercepting defenders. I'm expecting to see a fair bit of Quaynor this season, and Hore while he plays a different role I consider him more advanced and likely to perform to a higher level in season one as advanced as Quaynor's body is.

One theory and you're not completely wrong on this 'It’s a big step going from VFL to AFL. Just because player A was better than player B in the VFL doesn’t mean he will be better in the AFL' I find interesting. When one's game doesn't convert for the most part it's due to role and not being able to play their role at AFL level while a lesser performer in the 2s may get that chance. Otherwise if comparing two players who mostly play reserves and you bring them up a level, if they're both playing the roles their better in, you'd expect the better performed guy to go better assuming their game fits the gameplan/gamestyle and compliments their peers to some extent with a complimentary skillset.
 

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Even at 30 a fully fit, healthy Ben Reid walks into that team.

Did you not notice the correlation between WHE's dip in form and the knee injury he copped against Essendon....
Reid’s cooked. WHE though I’m leaning toward your POV even though I agree with Knight that once you’re out there your fit. A 42 goal and 135 mark season is better than the best of Elliott, Fasolo and any KPF, Cloke aside, since Pebbles retired. He needs to do more in transition, IMO, but he’s our second most dangerous forward (until Elliott shows some resilience) and his spot is as safe as any!
 
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At this stage of career Reid has declined. At either end, it's hard to see who he is decisively better than. Mihocek? For mine he's that first depth KPP if there is a full compliment of KPPs available. I'm very open minded to Reid if he outperforms any of the other KPPs or they drop off, which is why I feel beyond depth Reid needed to be retained this year, but he's not what he used to be, even when available. Reid's play has regressed badly and he looks shot, but with veterans sometimes they have unexpected seasons where they show more glimpses of their former self than expected, so I'm not going to draw a line through his name either. I still have him, even in decline ahead of Roughead.

Re. WHE. If you're health enough to play, you're healthy enough to perform. If he shows up this year and improves his tackling, wins more of the contested footy, finds more of it up the ground and gets his scoreboard impact back somewhere closer to where it was at in the first half of the season, then he holds his spot. He's one I have on watch though as there were too many facets of the game he was weak - even with his speed/endurance/marking and through the first half of the season scoreboard impact excellent.



None of my calls were post-draft. I had my orders each year locked in pre-draft combining my power rankings with the understandings from my phantom draft of where guys are and aren't likely to land in terms of teams and range. As per this year, had I known Sydney Stack would have gone undrafted, I would have taken him as a rookie and taken Boyd Woodcock late, but I didn't know that with certainty on draft day so I didn't use the benefit of hindsight in this activity.

As per Knightsight on page one, and I make no reference to Alex Johnson, I had other players I favoured to him and as such did not select. Specifically by position Jon Marsh. Had Johnson been able to play out the season without doing another ACL, he probably would surely have been retained by Sydney, but that's more when I would have this year looked at him or had Marsh not entered this years draft. He's one I spoke about in this thread in the context of - he's one to watch for next year if he gets his body right and puts some strong VFL games together late season.

I don't have Hore ahead of Howe, Crisp, Maynard or Langdon. Nor Dunn or Moore. I do have Hore largely competing with Langdon for a position and I consider that close, but depending on structural preferences Hore I suggest could be played alongside that group if the club wants to push Maynard or a Crisp or Langdon up the field and want that seventh defender inside that best 22. Hore would be clearly the best kick in Collingwood's back half and improves that balance considerably while further adding to the club's intercepting defenders. I'm expecting to see a fair bit of Quaynor this season, and Hore while he plays a different role I consider him more advanced and likely to perform to a higher level in season one as advanced as Quaynor's body is.

One theory and you're not completely wrong on this 'It’s a big step going from VFL to AFL. Just because player A was better than player B in the VFL doesn’t mean he will be better in the AFL' I find interesting. When one's game doesn't convert for the most part it's due to role and not being able to play their role at AFL level while a lesser performer in the 2s may get that chance. Otherwise if comparing two players who mostly play reserves and you bring them up a level, if they're both playing the roles their better in, you'd expect the better performed guy to go better assuming their game fits the gameplan/gamestyle and compliments their peers to some extent with a complimentary skillset.
But you did say that Hore was better than ‘most players’ in our backline. Removing big key positionnplayers such as Dunne, I simply listed those players in our backline (Howe, Maynard, Crisp and Langdon) and I can’t see how an unproven player in the VFL is better than these guys who make up the current backline. Maybe a replacement for an ageing Goldsack? Hore I find interesting because the Pies have been able to watch him closely for a few years now and they elected to pass on him. They must have a view why he isn’t good enough to replace others. I suppose the club is looking at players such as Murphy coming through and wanting to give him opportunities to develop? And yes you would expect Hore to have a head start on Quaynor. After all he is about 5 years older and has a lot more experience. But is he the type of player the Pies are looking for to add to the backline? Does he provide the burst and run off the backline that I’m assuming the Pies want (after all it’s why they picked up Murray) and get in Quaynor.

And Alex Johnston you thought was worthy of a rookie pick pre-draft.

Sorry Knightmare, while I do admire some of your thoughts, others I believe are way off.
 

Dynamics

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Even at 30 a fully fit, healthy Ben Reid walks into that team.

Did you not notice the correlation between WHE's dip in form and the knee injury he copped against Essendon....
So does a fully fit Jack Regan, but that's only marginally less likely.

I love Ben Reid but he'll never be what he was, unfortunately.
 
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