Hinesight v Knightsight v Hindsight 2020

[TheGreatGrundy]

At a minimum, hopefully our draftees are better users of a footy by foot than Treloar and Stevo.

Stephenson used the footy pretty well when kicking for goal.

 

[sr36]

Did other clubs not rate the draft or just take because of list reductions, existing lists, and targeted recruits?

A lot of vacant list spots.

 

[jackcass]

Stephenson used the footy pretty well when kicking for goal.

Yes... and no. Didn’t have a bad conversion rate. His field kicking, though it improved in 2020, was ordinary.

 

[Kappa]

Yeah, that’s what I said....

I argued that being close to 35 Pendlebury will continue to slow down and won't be as good as he used to, because that's common sense and science.

You started an argument trying to deny that.

Yeah.

 

[jackcass]

A lot of vacant list spots.

A lot less last year than in previous years.

 

[sr36]

A lot less last year than in previous years.

What do you mean? You weren't allowed vacant list spots in previous years.

 

[jackcass]

I argued that being close to 35 Pendlebury will continue to slow down and won't be as good as he used to, because that's common sense and science.

You started an argument trying to deny that.

Yeah.

I merely highlighted that he was still in AA contention as a 32 year old and hasn’t shown any sign of waning as yet. Happy for you to show me where I suggested he’d play elite footy till he’s 45, that he’s not human, or that age doesn’t matter for elite sportspeople. Or in any way started an “argument” for that matter.

 

[jackcass]

What do you mean? You weren't allowed vacant list spots in previous years.

Yes you were. Teams haven’t had to carry full list quota’s for some time. We added Noble remember to a list vacancy. I did think you were referring to pre-draft though.

 

[sr36]

Yes you were. Teams haven’t had to carry full list quota’s for some time. We added Noble remember to a list vacancy. I did think you were referring to pre-draft though.

We'rent the mid-season draft kids popped into vacancies created by lti?

 

[jackcass]

We'rent the mid-season draft kids popped into vacancies created by lti?

Some, but other added in the supplemental draft were straight into vacancies.

 

[TradeDraft]

On clubs rating/not rating the draft.

It wasn't a draft that was highly rated and weren't going to pay too much to be involved in. Clubs even aside from list size reductions wanted to minimise involvement and maximise flexibility going forward given there was no Victorian exposure last year, and the odds as overagers a few of these guys will step up and look good this season as midseason draft options.

Then shows that there could be some Big Steals in this Draft because the Vic Kids not playing this Year and also some Big Busts as well

 

[Knightmare]

Then shows that there could be some Big Steals in this Draft because the Vic Kids not playing this Year and also some Big Busts as well

I'm fully expecting that to be the case.

 

[Lockyer24]

This draft you would expect will have the greatest variance of recent years in terms of draft position versus actual eventual ranking (say after 5-10 years).

This is due to the Victorian’s not playing.

I think Hine was keen to get into the draft as he rates his ability to forecast players trajectory from a young age. Whether that is true or just arrogance we will see.

 

[Knightmare]

This draft you would expect will have the greatest variance of recent years in terms of draft position versus actual eventual ranking (say after 5-10 years).

This is due to the Victorian’s not playing.

I think Hine was keen to get into the draft as he rates his ability to forecast players trajectory from a young age. Whether that is true or just arrogance we will see.

I think our draft involvement was largely predicated around these two considerations:
1. salary cap (forcing player dumps which lead to picks as compensation through those trades)
2. NGA and F+S considerations (Reef this year - getting picks before Reef) and next year with Daicos (wanting to move picks out of that draft).

The strategy of moving picks out of next year's draft isn't one I'm personally a fan of because it limits our flexibility next offseason. Those picks could be traded next offseason for players or they could be used to move around the draft and even move into the 2022 draft.

My feel if I'm to try to think about what Derek was thinking with his picks: Macrae/Henry best availables and get the two best possible players with those picks before Reef. Derek as I understand it spent the year in SA and obviously took a liking to Poulter and McCreery. While McMahon is a flyer on a speculative developing KPP.

Ginnivan though is well performed and was worth the rookie pick while Chugg was another speculative pick and a raw one at that, but training reports have been positive so maybe he's developing?

In any case, Derek at least based on my own ratings coming into the draft, drafted well, with having some common picks (liking guys where Derek took them) always an indicator in that.

 

[sr36]

Then shows that there could be some Big Steals in this Draft because the Vic Kids not playing this Year and also some Big Busts as well

Yep. Basically, Hine and co. have backed themselves to find the steals in the draft based on evidence from 2019, whilst other clubs have left list spots vacant in order to see more evidence from 2021. Hopefully Hine and co. win the bet and get the steals.