Hinesight v Knightsight v Hindsight 2020

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whiskeytown said:
Wellingham, Marsh, Abbott... We’ve had a couple of WA players go back for one reason or another.

Maybe they think the SA boys are slightly more likely to settle long term in Melbourne
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Demographics play a part.

Population growth. Incomes.

Some may feel weather/lifestyle.

Proximity to home and time it takes are all factors that make the drive back to WA relatively greater v SA where again relatively more people want to leave.

So the draw back to WA is in relative terms greater than the draw back to SA.
 
Apples said:
I think the decision to move Stevo along will prove to be the right call. There were enough rumours circulating about his hub behaviour, to suggest he wasn't a popular team man or a particularly smart guy. His record of indiscretions suggests he is a very slow learner.

As for Treloar, I bow to the better judges about him being a star. I never saw him as such. Many times at quarter breaks I was astonished to compare my stats to those at Footy Wire. How could I miss him so often? I'd have a few ticks beside his name and yet, there he would be with 12 possessions in a quarter.

I understand the individual biases we all have, and I'm perfectly willing to accept I may miss a lot (especially with the terrible non-camera-side vision that Fox persists with - who can tell what's happening on the outer wing with Fox camera work?), but Treloar's possessions often appeared to be somewhat ineffective. Dinky kicks to a flat-footed teammate, ditto give-away handballs. He worked hard and ran all day, but in my opinion didn't provide enough quality ball use to be tagged a star.
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I totally agree with every word.
 

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I'll have to get around to updating the hindsight sections in these at some point.

For those who have been following these threads over the years, in my latest YouTube video I cover: my biggest hits and misses in my 12 years covering the AFL Draft. So for those wanting to see how I perform v AFL clubs, this is the one stop shop and most comprehensive look into that.

Not sure what the current protocol is on this board re. linking videos/content and whatnot but for those interested see my signature or if you see this post later down the track just check my YouTube channel (also linked in my signature) and you'll find it on there if you search: 'My biggest hits and misses in my 12 years covering the AFL Draft'
 
*Have just gone through and completed quick updates on previous threads with hindsights and some interest names we could have had.

In reviewing my own performance:
And I wish I had more of my trade calls included in these as I feel good about my trade calls each year and I feel more than not I'm on the right side of history (albeit not always admittedly eg. original Beams to Brisbane trade I wasn't in support of which yielded 5=DeGoey, Crisp and pick 25 which was moved for Greenwood). But then at least I picked on the other side that getting Beams back even for a first round pick wasn't appropriate and that Jarryd Lyons would have been a better trade or in the end as it worked out delisted free agent target.

For the draft..

The only year I got killed was 2014:
De Goey and Maynard v Laverde and Blakely. Going back through that draft, the Pies nailed De Goey, Moore and Maynard. 3 stars from 3 picks.


For other notable differences on draft boards:
2012:
Broomhead, Dwyer, Frost v Clurey and Langdon (one year early). Taking the best unique player in Langdon and having Clurey still running around and (serviceable) I look better but had Broomhead not sustained injuries I think that would be a more interesting discussion.

2013:
Scharenberg, Freeman and Langdon v Aish and Acres. For mine Langdon makes the Pies side winning, though under my previous year scenario I wouldn't need to draft him as I already have him, so if you take that out of the equation I look better for Aish and Acres. Having the bragging rights of having of these guys the two remaining players feels good on my end though in Aish and Acres. Obviously the injuries to Scharenberg and Freeman make that again for injury reasons a hard one for the Pies and is by no means a case of talent ID issues as we can't confirm either way how they would have gone if not for injury.

2015:
Sier and J.Thomas (redrafted as rookie) v Harley and Menegola. With Menegola my 2015 is favourable.

2016:
C.Brown, J.Daicos, M.Lynch v Willem Drew, Liam Ryan and Jye Bolton. I feel like I got the best player in Liam Ryan but Josh Daicos after his 2020 makes it a conversation. Jye Bolton after all these years remains one of if not the premier midfielder outside the AFL and I feel like would have been a best-22 player all this time. I like my 2016 more, but there is still lots to be played out. Do Brown and Lynch develop? Can Daicos continue improving? Does Drew on my side of the equation come good? I like my draft still, but there is still plenty more football to be played to call it conclusively.

2017:
Stephenson, N.Murphy, T.Brown, Mihocek v Darcy Fogarty, Charlie Ballard, Gryan Miers, Jordon Butts. Ballard and Miers are my favourites and in hindsight still stack up v only Mihocek at this stage on Collingwood's side. Still early but with Stephenson not developing this year then getting moved for peanuts, while Fogarty hasn't developed yet on my side, I feel I have the edge at this point. Though we still have to see how or if Murphy/T.Brown come good or if Fogarty/Butts on my side come good.

2018:
Quaynor and W.Kelly v Curtis Taylor and Sydney Stack? I imagine the Pies would do this one again and fair enough. Quaynor looks like a clear best 22 defender to me and Kelly is a later bloomer than I realised so he could come good this year. Curtis Taylor I like for North Melbourne on my side of the ledger and feel is in his own right a long term best 22 player and a good piece at the other end who will also only get better. Stack is such a wildcard isn't he? I still really like his game but that call for me comes down more-so to how he is off the field than on it, as when he plays, he generally plays good footy wherever you put him. A case of too early to call.
Irrelevant side note: I'm filthy with Essendon for delisting Noah Gown so quickly. His first year in the VFL was excellent then in 2020 which is year 2 he's delisted. I like him over two academy talls in Eyre and Brand and I'd be watching how Gown wherever he plays this year performs as I see more scope to develop if he keeps working at it.

2019:
Rantall, Bianco, Ruscoe v Byrnes, Nyuon? We'll have to wait and see. Byrnes I was happy for a late pick to see debut in 2020 (not that he did much). A wait and see that we'll need time to determine. A shame Jake Riccardi wasn't picked in hindsight but Pies will be happy enough for his draft position with Ruscoe being good enough to play this year and look reasonable.

Overall in going through the names, I feel pretty good about myself for someone who works full time and doesn't have a team of recruiters around me to consult. Other than 2014 I've otherwise been competitive if not a little better at least a few years.
 
Knightmare said:
*Have just gone through and completed quick updates on previous threads with hindsights and some interest names we could have had.

In reviewing my own performance:
And I wish I had more of my trade calls included in these as I feel good about my trade calls each year and I feel more than not I'm on the right side of history (albeit not always admittedly eg. original Beams to Brisbane trade I wasn't in support of which yielded 5=DeGoey, Crisp and pick 25 which was moved for Greenwood). But then at least I picked on the other side that getting Beams back even for a first round pick wasn't appropriate and that Jarryd Lyons would have been a better trade or in the end as it worked out delisted free agent target.

For the draft..

The only year I got killed was 2014:
De Goey and Maynard v Laverde and Blakely. Going back through that draft, the Pies nailed De Goey, Moore and Maynard. 3 stars from 3 picks.


For other notable differences on draft boards:
2012:
Broomhead, Dwyer, Frost v Clurey and Langdon (one year early). Taking the best unique player in Langdon and having Clurey still running around and (serviceable) I look better but had Broomhead not sustained injuries I think that would be a more interesting discussion.

2013:
Scharenberg, Freeman and Langdon v Aish and Acres. For mine Langdon makes the Pies side winning, though under my previous year scenario I wouldn't need to draft him as I already have him, so if you take that out of the equation I look better for Aish and Acres. Having the bragging rights of having of these guys the two remaining players feels good on my end though in Aish and Acres. Obviously the injuries to Scharenberg and Freeman make that again for injury reasons a hard one for the Pies and is by no means a case of talent ID issues as we can't confirm either way how they would have gone if not for injury.

2015:
Sier and J.Thomas (redrafted as rookie) v Harley and Menegola. With Menegola my 2015 is favourable.

2016:
C.Brown, J.Daicos, M.Lynch v Willem Drew, Liam Ryan and Jye Bolton. I feel like I got the best player in Liam Ryan but Josh Daicos after his 2020 makes it a conversation. Jye Bolton after all these years remains one of if not the premier midfielder outside the AFL and I feel like would have been a best-22 player all this time. I like my 2016 more, but there is still lots to be played out. Do Brown and Lynch develop? Can Daicos continue improving? Does Drew on my side of the equation come good? I like my draft still, but there is still plenty more football to be played to call it conclusively.

2017:
Stephenson, N.Murphy, T.Brown, Mihocek v Darcy Fogarty, Charlie Ballard, Gryan Miers, Jordon Butts. Ballard and Miers are my favourites and in hindsight still stack up v only Mihocek at this stage on Collingwood's side. Still early but with Stephenson not developing this year then getting moved for peanuts, while Fogarty hasn't developed yet on my side, I feel I have the edge at this point. Though we still have to see how or if Murphy/T.Brown come good or if Fogarty/Butts on my side come good.

2018:
Quaynor and W.Kelly v Curtis Taylor and Sydney Stack? I imagine the Pies would do this one again and fair enough. Quaynor looks like a clear best 22 defender to me and Kelly is a later bloomer than I realised so he could come good this year. Curtis Taylor I like for North Melbourne on my side of the ledger and feel is in his own right a long term best 22 player and a good piece at the other end who will also only get better. Stack is such a wildcard isn't he? I still really like his game but that call for me comes down more-so to how he is off the field than on it, as when he plays, he generally plays good footy wherever you put him. A case of too early to call.
Irrelevant side note: I'm filthy with Essendon for delisting Noah Gown so quickly. His first year in the VFL was excellent then in 2020 which is year 2 he's delisted. I like him over two academy talls in Eyre and Brand and I'd be watching how Gown wherever he plays this year performs as I see more scope to develop if he keeps working at it.

2019:
Rantall, Bianco, Ruscoe v Byrnes, Nyuon? We'll have to wait and see. Byrnes I was happy for a late pick to see debut in 2020 (not that he did much). A wait and see that we'll need time to determine. A shame Jake Riccardi wasn't picked in hindsight but Pies will be happy enough for his draft position with Ruscoe being good enough to play this year and look reasonable.

Overall in going through the names, I feel pretty good about myself for someone who works full time and doesn't have a team of recruiters around me to consult. Other than 2014 I've otherwise been competitive if not a little better at least a few years.
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KM, have you spoken to clubs about a role? I would think you have a body of work now that you could realistically point to. As you have said, you have a full-time job, so I suspect you can only get better. How do clubs recruit these guys anyway? Even an initial part-time role with scope to develop into a full-time position should be seriously considered.
Otherwise, you will need to do a Scully and have a kid.
 
Knightmare said:
*Have just gone through and completed quick updates on previous threads with hindsights and some interest names we could have had.

In reviewing my own performance:
And I wish I had more of my trade calls included in these as I feel good about my trade calls each year and I feel more than not I'm on the right side of history (albeit not always admittedly eg. original Beams to Brisbane trade I wasn't in support of which yielded 5=DeGoey, Crisp and pick 25 which was moved for Greenwood). But then at least I picked on the other side that getting Beams back even for a first round pick wasn't appropriate and that Jarryd Lyons would have been a better trade or in the end as it worked out delisted free agent target.

For the draft..

The only year I got killed was 2014:
De Goey and Maynard v Laverde and Blakely. Going back through that draft, the Pies nailed De Goey, Moore and Maynard. 3 stars from 3 picks.


For other notable differences on draft boards:
2012:
Broomhead, Dwyer, Frost v Clurey and Langdon (one year early). Taking the best unique player in Langdon and having Clurey still running around and (serviceable) I look better but had Broomhead not sustained injuries I think that would be a more interesting discussion.

2013:
Scharenberg, Freeman and Langdon v Aish and Acres. For mine Langdon makes the Pies side winning, though under my previous year scenario I wouldn't need to draft him as I already have him, so if you take that out of the equation I look better for Aish and Acres. Having the bragging rights of having of these guys the two remaining players feels good on my end though in Aish and Acres. Obviously the injuries to Scharenberg and Freeman make that again for injury reasons a hard one for the Pies and is by no means a case of talent ID issues as we can't confirm either way how they would have gone if not for injury.

2015:
Sier and J.Thomas (redrafted as rookie) v Harley and Menegola. With Menegola my 2015 is favourable.

2016:
C.Brown, J.Daicos, M.Lynch v Willem Drew, Liam Ryan and Jye Bolton. I feel like I got the best player in Liam Ryan but Josh Daicos after his 2020 makes it a conversation. Jye Bolton after all these years remains one of if not the premier midfielder outside the AFL and I feel like would have been a best-22 player all this time. I like my 2016 more, but there is still lots to be played out. Do Brown and Lynch develop? Can Daicos continue improving? Does Drew on my side of the equation come good? I like my draft still, but there is still plenty more football to be played to call it conclusively.

2017:
Stephenson, N.Murphy, T.Brown, Mihocek v Darcy Fogarty, Charlie Ballard, Gryan Miers, Jordon Butts. Ballard and Miers are my favourites and in hindsight still stack up v only Mihocek at this stage on Collingwood's side. Still early but with Stephenson not developing this year then getting moved for peanuts, while Fogarty hasn't developed yet on my side, I feel I have the edge at this point. Though we still have to see how or if Murphy/T.Brown come good or if Fogarty/Butts on my side come good.

2018:
Quaynor and W.Kelly v Curtis Taylor and Sydney Stack? I imagine the Pies would do this one again and fair enough. Quaynor looks like a clear best 22 defender to me and Kelly is a later bloomer than I realised so he could come good this year. Curtis Taylor I like for North Melbourne on my side of the ledger and feel is in his own right a long term best 22 player and a good piece at the other end who will also only get better. Stack is such a wildcard isn't he? I still really like his game but that call for me comes down more-so to how he is off the field than on it, as when he plays, he generally plays good footy wherever you put him. A case of too early to call.
Irrelevant side note: I'm filthy with Essendon for delisting Noah Gown so quickly. His first year in the VFL was excellent then in 2020 which is year 2 he's delisted. I like him over two academy talls in Eyre and Brand and I'd be watching how Gown wherever he plays this year performs as I see more scope to develop if he keeps working at it.

2019:
Rantall, Bianco, Ruscoe v Byrnes, Nyuon? We'll have to wait and see. Byrnes I was happy for a late pick to see debut in 2020 (not that he did much). A wait and see that we'll need time to determine. A shame Jake Riccardi wasn't picked in hindsight but Pies will be happy enough for his draft position with Ruscoe being good enough to play this year and look reasonable.

Overall in going through the names, I feel pretty good about myself for someone who works full time and doesn't have a team of recruiters around me to consult. Other than 2014 I've otherwise been competitive if not a little better at least a few years.
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Watched a little of your YouTube last night...gee whiz 3 hours...I'll come back to it..

I just cant get excited about ruscoe....Rantall also for that matter...hope I'm wrong..

Imo tyler brown and Kelly to come good

Sier and murphy wont make it to 2022..
 
Billys Back said:
KM, have you spoken to clubs about a role? I would think you have a body of work now that you could realistically point to. As you have said, you have a full-time job, so I suspect you can only get better. How do clubs recruit these guys anyway? Even an initial part-time role with scope to develop into a full-time position should be seriously considered.
Otherwise, you will need to do a Scully and have a kid.
Click to expand...

I have in the past had some dialogue with a specific Victorian club about coming aboard but the timing for me wasn't right and I didn't take up the opportunity.

Having been to games for so many years and knowing recruiters and how hard they have to work. In a day you'll have guys travelling from one venue, to the next, to the next. And they'll be leaving games at 3/4 time to do it. For me that's just ridiculous stuff and isn't a lifestyle to live. For those who are up for that lifestyle, go for it, but the longer I've done this, the more I've been able to put my finger on exactly what I enjoy and get a sense of fulfilment from.

I prefer from a lifestyle perspective living without a car (I'm very much a minimalist and I view having a car as an unnecessary expense from my perspective or in accounting terms having a car is a liability because it takes money out of your pocket every week) and I also enjoy picking and choosing the games I attend and then watching a few others during the week at my leisure and I'm not locked into exclusively watching the juniors every second of every day. In my role for ESPN I have the complete flexibility to do that and I also get the enjoyment of engaging with other footy watchers online and sharing that passion which I have long gotten a lot of enjoyment out of and would miss. In starting up my YouTube channel I've really doubled down on that where I have a full time job, I have ESPN, then YouTube, and for me they're three passion projects. I wouldn't want to give up any of them and hope in the future if/when I have a family I can continue with all of that and don't have to cut back too much, but at least with YouTube and ESPN there is the flexibility to choose how much I want to do, so going forward my hope is I can continue those for as long as possible and ideally never need to stop.

From a football perspective I also like being a generalist and this would be a missing component for me if stuck watching exclusively juniors. I like being over everything. From AFL, to U18s, to the state leagues. Just being told - go watch the juniors, focus on that and don't worry about anything else. That isn't me. I like to know what's going on everywhere. I'm a big picture person and enjoy if anything more-so the big picture list management decision side of things even more than the scouting side.

I've also found in observing the media landscape for the AFL, there is so little in terms of media from an analysis perspective. Whether it's analysing the AFL, analysing the junior ranks. There isn't anything that on an intellectual level from very many people engages me whereas for a point of contrast I've always got my nose in ESPN's basketball coverage with a lot more analysis focused content coming out of there whereas in Australia the media landscape is so focused on 'issues' and off-field stuff that the general tone of it doesn't entertain or engage me for the most part barr a very select few good minds with ESPN and elsewhere. Having this opinion and seeing the numerous gaps that need filling both with AFL and draft/trade perspective and with no one producing the type of content I would wish to consume out of routine, that's a large part in what fuels me from a football perspective to remain focused on what I'm doing for ESPN and now YouTube for a some additional exclusive content.

If clubs wish to get me in for a day to share some opinions/thoughts I'd be happy to do that kind of freelance consulting kind of stuff, but that's probably the most likely scenario if I am to have some involvement directly with a club or clubs. They can ask me for example: we're a win-now situation and we need a first possession winner at stoppages. Who should we get? And I might point out through trade Josh Dunkley is underutilised, is on a team where there is a vast oversupply of midfielders and he would in a more prominent ball winning role offer a great deal of value than he would provide to the Dogs, or his market value based off of past performance would be due to not having those regular midfield opportunities to play the role he is best utilised in.

If there was a scenario I would consider joining a club in a full time role, I'd be looking towards the list management role rather than as a scout as that's where I feel like I would provide the most value and greatest value for my time. And I'd be looking to completely restructure the recruiting department.

The reason I would look at a restructure is: My observation is all 18 clubs are poor when it comes to these two things, and I'm talking consistently poor. Opposition talent ID and state league talent ID. Some are better than others eg. Geelong for state league talent ID with Kelly and Stewart in successive years really turned around their fortunes and trajectory while Hawthorn as a point of contrast tend to go better than most trading for rival talent. Trades for Mitchell, Gunston, McEvoy and Burgoyne as among those most successful over this past 10 year stretch and helped them among many others sustain such a long term of success. And when a club gets one or the other right, they get a massive competitive advantage and can remain a great team for a long time as a result.

To get more specific into what I'd be looking to do and Collingwood based on recent trade history based off of results over the past five years really need to consider these thoughts closely as much or more than any other club I would argue.

I would be beefing up talent ID into state leagues and looking for there to be a greater focus on players who perform to an AFL standard where they can at least play a role at the level. Opposition talent ID from my perspective is half the battle. That's half of the process towards getting better and is ever bit as important as talent ID through the draft towards getting better, though the big difference is that they're helping you immediately. Building through the trade/free agency periods is an underutilised recruiting method and needs even more to be tapped into. Then any fantasy football players would recognise that each year you need to be looking at mature agers. They play and can contribute right away, but they're also going to be underpriced based on the value they provide relative to their draft position. They're low floor prospects and high probability of success based on their draft position and often have a great deal more upside than AFL clubs realise. I'm seeing blindspots from clubs in assessing state league talent. Recruiters ignoring those 25 years of age + all too often in particular. But then there is tremendous value in the general defenders, ruckmen, general forwards, midfielders, key defenders at those levels. Rarely, but sometimes key forwards as we've seen with Riccardi who looks a star from last years draft, Mihocek is good, Ben Brown was a great get, then Podsiadly as a 28 year old. Across the state leagues you can generally find someone who can fill a specific need if you find the right guy and there needs to as a component, and if not, then there is certainly someone on rival lists who is undervalued/underutilised who can.
So if I was to have eg. x6 full timers. I'd have three up to cover the AFL teams and state league teams and another three across the various Under-18 Competitions if I was to suggest an optimised structure and to give a much more optimal weighting to those parts of the process. And as list manager the role would be a generalist one observing all levels of competition and having that big picture overview perspective and giving everything the right weighting, and that of a capologist to really plan the long term strategy towards fitting players into the salary cap and always having room to add rival talent through the trade and free agency periods when the right talent becomes available to add to the list.
Whether I'm involved in a club or not, if I'm advising a club, that's how they can set themselves up for optimised results. And if a club only as room for 4 full timers all up, then again it's keeping that same ratio, keep the two on AFL/state league duties and the other two on U18 duties.

pablo disco bar said:
Watched a little of your YouTube last night...gee whiz 3 hours...I'll come back to it..

I just cant get excited about ruscoe....Rantall also for that matter...hope I'm wrong..

Imo tyler brown and Kelly to come good

Sier and murphy wont make it to 2022..
Click to expand...

For those who don't have 3 hours to watch, there is x2 speed which is a great feature for breezing through YouTube content or podcasts on YouTube for those who like podcasts, but otherwise there is flicking through the names and seeing where I had them v clubs.

It's really just a video keeping myself accountable, putting my record out there and hopefully for any aspiring talent scouts out there passing on some of my lessons and learnings over the years, some areas I need to keep improving, and some general thoughts and how some of the younger guys I think may go and how some of my views with some players have changed/evolved.

It will be interesting to see the directions a lot of those Pies go. Kelly given the extra growth I'm with you despite not loving as a junior I think has a genuine chance of coming good, and possibly at either end.

Tyler Brown I'm not as optimised about as he's not much of a ball winner/accumulator but if ever he can add volume, given he has the quality, fingers crossed.

Rantall would be nice to see come good. Could be a first possession winner and distributor inside. We need that. But that's a wait and see. Ruscoe has scope at either end but has more developing to go as all these others do.

Sier I don't think makes it either. Had the good 2018, but that's the only year he has shown up. He needs to surpass and build upon that standard of play to prove to be a long term piece. Murphy we haven't seen haven't seen get enough of a chance, and not since 2018, so we need to see him get a stretch of opportunities, but like you I tend to think against the odds.

Bianco who you didn't mention is also interesting. Small, but ready and has the skills. Not sure his best position or where he could settle. Not sure he makes it. But another where as with a lot of these guys, we just have to see how he develops, or indeed if he develops.
 
Knightmare said:
I have in the past had some dialogue with a specific Victorian club about coming aboard but the timing for me wasn't right and I didn't take up the opportunity.

Having been to games for so many years and knowing recruiters and how hard they have to work. In a day you'll have guys travelling from one venue, to the next, to the next. And they'll be leaving games at 3/4 time to do it. For me that's just ridiculous stuff and isn't a lifestyle to live. For those who are up for that lifestyle, go for it, but the longer I've done this, the more I've been able to put my finger on exactly what I enjoy and get a sense of fulfilment from.

I prefer from a lifestyle perspective living without a car (I'm very much a minimalist and I view having a car as an unnecessary expense from my perspective or in accounting terms having a car is a liability because it takes money out of your pocket every week) and I also enjoy picking and choosing the games I attend and then watching a few others during the week at my leisure and I'm not locked into exclusively watching the juniors every second of every day. In my role for ESPN I have the complete flexibility to do that and I also get the enjoyment of engaging with other footy watchers online and sharing that passion which I have long gotten a lot of enjoyment out of and would miss. In starting up my YouTube channel I've really doubled down on that where I have a full time job, I have ESPN, then YouTube, and for me they're three passion projects. I wouldn't want to give up any of them and hope in the future if/when I have a family I can continue with all of that and don't have to cut back too much, but at least with YouTube and ESPN there is the flexibility to choose how much I want to do, so going forward my hope is I can continue those for as long as possible and ideally never need to stop.

From a football perspective I also like being a generalist and this would be a missing component for me if stuck watching exclusively juniors. I like being over everything. From AFL, to U18s, to the state leagues. Just being told - go watch the juniors, focus on that and don't worry about anything else. That isn't me. I like to know what's going on everywhere. I'm a big picture person and enjoy if anything more-so the big picture list management decision side of things even more than the scouting side.

I've also found in observing the media landscape for the AFL, there is so little in terms of media from an analysis perspective. Whether it's analysing the AFL, analysing the junior ranks. There isn't anything that on an intellectual level from very many people engages me whereas for a point of contrast I've always got my nose in ESPN's basketball coverage with a lot more analysis focused content coming out of there whereas in Australia the media landscape is so focused on 'issues' and off-field stuff that the general tone of it doesn't entertain or engage me for the most part barr a very select few good minds with ESPN and elsewhere. Having this opinion and seeing the numerous gaps that need filling both with AFL and draft/trade perspective and with no one producing the type of content I would wish to consume out of routine, that's a large part in what fuels me from a football perspective to remain focused on what I'm doing for ESPN and now YouTube for a some additional exclusive content.

If clubs wish to get me in for a day to share some opinions/thoughts I'd be happy to do that kind of freelance consulting kind of stuff, but that's probably the most likely scenario if I am to have some involvement directly with a club or clubs. They can ask me for example: we're a win-now situation and we need a first possession winner at stoppages. Who should we get? And I might point out through trade Josh Dunkley is underutilised, is on a team where there is a vast oversupply of midfielders and he would in a more prominent ball winning role offer a great deal of value than he would provide to the Dogs, or his market value based off of past performance would be due to not having those regular midfield opportunities to play the role he is best utilised in.

If there was a scenario I would consider joining a club in a full time role, I'd be looking towards the list management role rather than as a scout as that's where I feel like I would provide the most value and greatest value for my time. And I'd be looking to completely restructure the recruiting department.

The reason I would look at a restructure is: My observation is all 18 clubs are poor when it comes to these two things, and I'm talking consistently poor. Opposition talent ID and state league talent ID. Some are better than others eg. Geelong for state league talent ID with Kelly and Stewart in successive years really turned around their fortunes and trajectory while Hawthorn as a point of contrast tend to go better than most trading for rival talent. Trades for Mitchell, Gunston, McEvoy and Burgoyne as among those most successful over this past 10 year stretch and helped them among many others sustain such a long term of success. And when a club gets one or the other right, they get a massive competitive advantage and can remain a great team for a long time as a result.

To get more specific into what I'd be looking to do and Collingwood based on recent trade history based off of results over the past five years really need to consider these thoughts closely as much or more than any other club I would argue.

I would be beefing up talent ID into state leagues and looking for there to be a greater focus on players who perform to an AFL standard where they can at least play a role at the level. Opposition talent ID from my perspective is half the battle. That's half of the process towards getting better and is ever bit as important as talent ID through the draft towards getting better, though the big difference is that they're helping you immediately. Building through the trade/free agency periods is an underutilised recruiting method and needs even more to be tapped into. Then any fantasy football players would recognise that each year you need to be looking at mature agers. They play and can contribute right away, but they're also going to be underpriced based on the value they provide relative to their draft position. They're low floor prospects and high probability of success based on their draft position and often have a great deal more upside than AFL clubs realise. I'm seeing blindspots from clubs in assessing state league talent. Recruiters ignoring those 25 years of age + all too often in particular. But then there is tremendous value in the general defenders, ruckmen, general forwards, midfielders, key defenders at those levels. Rarely, but sometimes key forwards as we've seen with Riccardi who looks a star from last years draft, Mihocek is good, Ben Brown was a great get, then Podsiadly as a 28 year old. Across the state leagues you can generally find someone who can fill a specific need if you find the right guy and there needs to as a component, and if not, then there is certainly someone on rival lists who is undervalued/underutilised who can.
So if I was to have eg. x6 full timers. I'd have three up to cover the AFL teams and state league teams and another three across the various Under-18 Competitions if I was to suggest an optimised structure and to give a much more optimal weighting to those parts of the process. And as list manager the role would be a generalist one observing all levels of competition and having that big picture overview perspective and giving everything the right weighting, and that of a capologist to really plan the long term strategy towards fitting players into the salary cap and always having room to add rival talent through the trade and free agency periods when the right talent becomes available to add to the list.
Whether I'm involved in a club or not, if I'm advising a club, that's how they can set themselves up for optimised results. And if a club only as room for 4 full timers all up, then again it's keeping that same ratio, keep the two on AFL/state league duties and the other two on U18 duties.



For those who don't have 3 hours to watch, there is x2 speed which is a great feature for breezing through YouTube content or podcasts on YouTube for those who like podcasts, but otherwise there is flicking through the names and seeing where I had them v clubs.

It's really just a video keeping myself accountable, putting my record out there and hopefully for any aspiring talent scouts out there passing on some of my lessons and learnings over the years, some areas I need to keep improving, and some general thoughts and how some of the younger guys I think may go and how some of my views with some players have changed/evolved.

It will be interesting to see the directions a lot of those Pies go. Kelly given the extra growth I'm with you despite not loving as a junior I think has a genuine chance of coming good, and possibly at either end.

Tyler Brown I'm not as optimised about as he's not much of a ball winner/accumulator but if ever he can add volume, given he has the quality, fingers crossed.

Rantall would be nice to see come good. Could be a first possession winner and distributor inside. We need that. But that's a wait and see. Ruscoe has scope at either end but has more developing to go as all these others do.

Sier I don't think makes it either. Had the good 2018, but that's the only year he has shown up. He needs to surpass and build upon that standard of play to prove to be a long term piece. Murphy we haven't seen haven't seen get enough of a chance, and not since 2018, so we need to see him get a stretch of opportunities, but like you I tend to think against the odds.

Bianco who you didn't mention is also interesting. Small, but ready and has the skills. Not sure his best position or where he could settle. Not sure he makes it. But another where as with a lot of these guys, we just have to see how he develops, or indeed if he develops.
Click to expand...
Yeah without VFL last year hard to know much about bianco/rantall..however from reading posts on here i am optimistic on bianco however maybe 2022 is his year due to side? Hope to see 5 to 8 games from him this year
 
pablo disco bar said:
Yeah without VFL last year hard to know much about bianco/rantall..however from reading posts on here i am optimistic on bianco however maybe 2022 is his year due to side? Hope to see 5 to 8 games from him this year
Click to expand...

I really hope to see all those young guys for stretches of games.

Tom Wilson is another. I want to see an extended stretch. Collingwood need to get the youth playing and into the senior team to play alongside the more seasoned veterans. That's the only way at this stage in the club's list cycle that Collingwood are going to make any ground on the competition and help the long term outlook.
 
Knightmare said:
I really hope to see all those young guys for stretches of games.

Tom Wilson is another. I want to see an extended stretch. Collingwood need to get the youth playing and into the senior team to play alongside the more seasoned veterans. That's the only way at this stage in the club's list cycle that Collingwood are going to make any ground on the competition and help the long term outlook.
Click to expand...
Tom Wilson I've never known less about a Collingwood player in all my time
 
pablo disco bar said:
Tom Wilson I've never known less about a Collingwood player in all my time
Click to expand...

U16 footballer, but chose basketball over football, played college, tried for a basketball career as a point guard but wasn't quite good enough. Back to footy and signed as a cat b rookied. Could be a key forward or medium marking forward at 194cm but light bodied. Possible midfield scope and has some good awareness and capabilities in traffic.

Will be interesting to see what happens. We just need to see him to see if he can make it.

I don't go along to training or have those kinds of links to the club, so like others I haven't seen what kind of strides or otherwise he may/may not have made these past 12 months. That's why I'm so curious.
 

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Knightmare said:
U16 footballer, but chose basketball over football, played college, tried for a basketball career as a point guard but wasn't quite good enough.
Click to expand...

He was a boomer at 21. I daresay that he could have had a good career in the NBL, but maybe not the international career that he'd dreamt about.
 
sr36 said:
He was a boomer at 21. I daresay that he could have had a good career in the NBL, but maybe not the international career that he'd dreamt about.
Click to expand...

Wilson the basketballer was listed as 77kg and is now substantially more than that now and from what I saw last week has a body that is ready for AFL football now.

I would love to see him come through and take either WHE or Josh Thomas' spot in the side as a medium sized forward or even play on the wing. He is a category B rookie, so he's really a hit and hope, so let's hope he comes off, but if he doesn't, it has not cost us anything.
 
Knightmare said:
Absolutely seeing that squad go from that to Grand Final in 2018 was remarkable. It's a team that had top-8 potential, but didn't have apparent Grand Final upside.
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Agree but the other thing that is forgotten in that season is our very kind draw and that we took absolute advantage of it. Our form was that of a lower 8 team and we hit the finals in best form and nearly pinched a flag.

Hindsight, pardon the pun, is always the best way to assess the draw. In 2018 we played 8 matches against top 8 sides and 14 against the bottom 10. We maxed that out by being 14/14 against the bottom 10 but only 1/8 v the top 8. Performed well above the season once finals began

Reckon it gave the team confidence in 2019 and we were clearly a better H&A side in 19 but faded a bit in finals.

2020 saw us closer to our talent level I think, bottom 8, and with our talent drop off in 2021, matched against almost all our immediate rivals and a few below improving themselves over the off season means I think we will struggle to final in 2021
 
Gone Critical said:
Agree but the other thing that is forgotten in that season is our very kind draw and that we took absolute advantage of it. Our form was that of a lower 8 team and we hit the finals in best form and nearly pinched a flag.

Hindsight, pardon the pun, is always the best way to assess the draw. In 2018 we played 8 matches against top 8 sides and 14 against the bottom 10. We maxed that out by being 14/14 against the bottom 10 but only 1/8 v the top 8. Performed well above the season once finals began

Reckon it gave the team confidence in 2019 and we were clearly a better H&A side in 19 but faded a bit in finals.

2020 saw us closer to our talent level I think, bottom 8, and with our talent drop off in 2021, matched against almost all our immediate rivals and a few below improving themselves over the off season means I think we will struggle to final in 2021
Click to expand...

Hard to disagree with your feel on any of those points.

2021 projection? 9-12 finish if I'm to narrow down the range and guess at this point.

As I've said before, we'll go as far this year as the youth takes us. Who can emerge and become genuine best-22 calibre pieces? The more the merrier.
 
Interesting re Bianco... I like him but wonder if there is a spot for him in defence considering we have simile players in Noble already and now Chugg, who is impressing down back

Hopefully Bianco can learn to play a small half forward role he could deliver it inside 50 with aplomb

Given his foot skills we should be doing all we can to fit him in the lineup
 
whiskeytown said:
Interesting re Bianco... I like him but wonder if there is a spot for him in defence considering we have simile players in Noble already and now Chugg, who is impressing down back

Hopefully Bianco can learn to play a small half forward role he could deliver it inside 50 with aplomb

Given his foot skills we should be doing all we can to fit him in the lineup
Click to expand...

Wasn't he playing predominantly wing-HHF before we drafted him.
 
whiskeytown said:
Interesting re Bianco... I like him but wonder if there is a spot for him in defence considering we have simile players in Noble already and now Chugg, who is impressing down back
Hopefully Bianco can learn to play a small half forward role he could deliver it inside 50 with aplomb
Given his foot skills we should be doing all we can to fit him in the lineup
Click to expand...
If Bianco makes it, whether forward or back, will be off the back of his kicking, which from what we have seen at training is close to elite. The question is, can he get enough of the ball & maintain that accuracy in first grade. I think both he and Rantall will get a run early this season.
 
whiskeytown said:
Interesting re Bianco... I like him but wonder if there is a spot for him in defence considering we have simile players in Noble already and now Chugg, who is impressing down back

Hopefully Bianco can learn to play a small half forward role he could deliver it inside 50 with aplomb

Given his foot skills we should be doing all we can to fit him in the lineup
Click to expand...
At the end of the year, Bucks mentioned that high half forward was an area we may look to bolster. It's an area that we don't really have anyone established and is completely wide open in terms of selection and it's where young mids are likely to cut their teeth. Post the draft, we now have a queue of unestablushed guys who would be eyeing off those roles. It's the most likely role for whoever out of the Brown's, Thomas, Reef, Macrae, Rantall, and Ginnivan see senior action in 2021. Thus, I think they'll continue to develop Bianco for half back or wing.
 
Knightmare said:
Hard to disagree with your feel on any of those points.

2021 projection? 9-12 finish if I'm to narrow down the range and guess at this point.

As I've said before, we'll go as far this year as the youth takes us. Who can emerge and become genuine best-22 calibre pieces? The more the merrier.
Click to expand...
Wrong again NM.
 
jmac70 said:
Wrong again NM.
Click to expand...

What specifically gives you confidence that we will finish higher than 9-12?

I see a list with 23 players having played 23 games or less... most of them middle to late draftees.

And a team that was in 2020 bottom 4 for marks inside 50... which we’ve done nothing to really rectify as far as trade or recruitment goes. Drafted McMahon but it’s unlikely he’ll impact in 2021.

We’re just hoping Cox and Elliot rediscover form inside 50... and putting the rest of our eggs into Will Kelly making a Mihocek like transition from defender to forward

Having looked at the draw I think we struggle to win 10 games in 2021.
 
whiskeytown said:
What specifically gives you confidence that we will finish higher than 9-12?

I see a list with 23 players having played 23 games or less... most of them middle to late draftees.

And a team that was in 2020 bottom 4 for marks inside 50... which we’ve done nothing to really rectify as far as trade or recruitment goes. Drafted McMahon but it’s unlikely he’ll impact in 2021.

We’re just hoping Cox and Elliot rediscover form inside 50... and putting the rest of our eggs into Will Kelly making a Mihocek like transition from defender to forward

Having looked at the draw I think we struggle to win 10 games in 2021.
Click to expand...
I’m confident
 
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