Hinesight v Knightsight v Hindsight

Knightmare

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Always a bit of fun. Pitting myself against the club and then can come back in a few years time to review how right/wrong/close or otherwise.

Hinesight:
40: Jay Rantall
45: Trent Bianco
55: Trey Ruscoe
Notes: All suitable selections. Rantall and Bianco both represent relative value without being my preferred picks. My full thoughts can be found in my signature in my AFL Draft winners and losers piece.

Knightsight:
40: Ryan Byrnes
45: Bigoa Nyuon
55: Joshua Shute
RD 13: Angus Baker
Notes: Best available at each pick. Byrnes top 20, Nyuon top 25, Shute top 30 and Baker top 35 respectively on my own personal draft board as an inside mid, key defender, outside mid/def and mature age gen def respectively.

Hindsight: TBD

--
Scenario. Last year all throughout the trade and draft period I came down hard trading for Dayne Beams. I stated I would not have traded one first round selection for him let alone two as part of a deal. As a hypothetical had Collingwood retained that pick. I would have drafted:
Knightsight:
18: Deven Robertson
40: Ryan Byrnes
45: Bigoa Nyuon
55: Joshua Shute
RD 13: Angus Baker
Notes:
All best availables. On Robertson was every bit as good as Rowell and Anderson during the U18 Champs winning the Larke Medal. Kicking issues overstated.

Hindsight: TDB
18:
40:
45:
55:

Let me know if keen on more insight on any of the players mentioned or alternatively have a go yourselves.

My past attempts

2018: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/hinesight-v-knightsight-v-hindsight-2018.1209520/

2016/2017: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightsight-hinesight-and-hindsight.1182775/

2015: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightsight-v-hinesight-v-hindsight.1118177/

2014: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightsight-v-hinesight-v-hindsight.1082834/

2013: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/hinesight-knightsight-and-hindsight-end-of-2013.1041937/

2012: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/hinesight-knightsight-and-hindsight.981606/


Knightmare v Carlton 2012-2018:
 
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Apex36

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Mar 26, 2014
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Always a bit of fun. Pitting myself against the club and then can come back in a few years time to review how right/wrong/close or otherwise.

Hinesight:
40: Jay Rantall
45: Trent Bianco
55: Trey Ruscoe
Notes: All suitable selections. Rantall and Bianco both represent relative value without being my preferred picks. My full thoughts can be found in my signature in my AFL Draft winners and losers piece.

Knightsight:
40: Ryan Byrnes
45: Bigoa Nyuon
55: Joshua Shute
RD 13: Angus Baker
Notes: Best available at each pick. Byrnes top 20, Nyuon top 25, Shute top 30 and Baker top 35 respectively on my own personal draft board as an inside mid, key defender, outside mid/def and mature age gen def respectively.

Hindsight: TBD

--
Scenario. Last year all throughout the trade and draft period I came down hard trading for Dayne Beams. I stated I would not have traded one first round selection for him let alone two as part of a deal. As a hypothetical had Collingwood retained that pick. I would have drafted:
Knightsight:
18: Deven Robertson
40: Ryan Byrnes
45: Bigoa Nyuon
55: Joshua Shute
RD 13: Angus Baker
Notes:
All best availables. On Robertson was every bit as good as Rowell and Anderson during the U18 Champs winning the Larke Medal. Kicking issues overstated.

Hindsight: TDB
18:
40:
45:
55:

Let me know if keen on more insight on any of the players mentioned or alternatively have a go yourselves.

My past attempts

2018: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/hinesight-v-knightsight-v-hindsight-2018.1209520/

2016/2017: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightsight-hinesight-and-hindsight.1182775/

2015: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightsight-v-hinesight-v-hindsight.1118177/

2014: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightsight-v-hinesight-v-hindsight.1082834/

2013: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/hinesight-knightsight-and-hindsight-end-of-2013.1041937/

2012: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/hinesight-knightsight-and-hindsight.981606/


Knightmare v Carlton 2012-2018:
I can see the “COLLINGWOOD BIAS!!!1” posts on your almanac thread coming thick and fast once people read that write up KM :tearsofjoy:
 

Saintly Viewed

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Knightmare the interesting discussion is if we kept our First Pick this season (was pick 16 then pushed down with the various bids etc) who we actually would have gone for?

You are going for Robertson but who would we have actually taken?

Might just have been Rantall all the same?
Quote fascinating if we could see all the clubs’ draft boards after the event.

I just have a feeling the two we got, we ranked far higher than what transpired.
 

Knightmare

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What did you think of our pick ups KM?
From my Every club's draft haul rated piece:

'Collingwood

Improved their draft hand slightly in the latter half of the draft to increase their involvement without losing a lot. Jay Rantall represents strong value as a basketball convert with elite endurance who does his best work inside winning the contested ball, distributing by hand and moving through traffic. Oakleigh premiership captain Trent Bianco is a second selection who represents strong value as one of the best kicks in the draft and the most advanced outside player in the pool. Trey Ruscoe at 192cm with his versatility to play defence, midfield or forward, is a third solid selection with his skills, mobility, ball winning capabilities and the way he reads the ball in flight and takes marks. Though the question of whether Collingwood should have retained pick 51 to draft key forward Jake Riccardi rather than trade it to GWS who used the pick to draft the VFL's Fothergill-Round-Mitchell Medal is a question that will be asked given Collingwood's lacking key position stocks.

Grade: A'

--
It may be the first time since 2013 I've felt like I can actually give Collingwood a positive review. Collingwood selected relative value with the first two choices and Ruscoe while not quite inside my top 55, I consider suitable as someone I have in my top 65 and consider suitable late/rookie.

I can see the “COLLINGWOOD BIAS!!!1” posts on your almanac thread coming thick and fast once people read that write up KM :tearsofjoy:
Somehow there is always that one Carlton supporter.

I can never understand why 😂
 

Knightmare

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Knightmare the interesting discussion is if we kept our First Pick this season (was pick 16 then pushed down with the various bids etc) who we actually would have gone for?

You are going for Robertson but who would we have actually taken?

Might just have been Rantall all the same?
Quote fascinating if we could see all the clubs’ draft boards after the event.

I just have a feeling the two we got, we ranked far higher than what transpired.
I'm about Robertson as the 7th guy on my draft board.

I suspect Collingwood would have taken one of De Koning, Worrell or Jones. Not sure which but they likely would have gone tall. De Koning is my best guess. I don't have that confirmation.

Collingwood need midfielders as well as KPPs, so that's plausible. But with a few KPPs in that range I suspect we would have gone tall first knowing if not there, there probably wouldn't be another good one at one of the later choices.

Would be interesting to hear just how high Collingwood rated Rantall. Some had him top 20 or around 20, but obviously he dropped. Bianco also had his fans a combination of clubs also depending on who else was there potentially taking him both in the first round and in the 20s.
 

ThePheonix

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From my Every club's draft haul rated piece:

'Collingwood

Improved their draft hand slightly in the latter half of the draft to increase their involvement without losing a lot. Jay Rantall represents strong value as a basketball convert with elite endurance who does his best work inside winning the contested ball, distributing by hand and moving through traffic. Oakleigh premiership captain Trent Bianco is a second selection who represents strong value as one of the best kicks in the draft and the most advanced outside player in the pool. Trey Ruscoe at 192cm with his versatility to play defence, midfield or forward, is a third solid selection with his skills, mobility, ball winning capabilities and the way he reads the ball in flight and takes marks. Though the question of whether Collingwood should have retained pick 51 to draft key forward Jake Riccardi rather than trade it to GWS who used the pick to draft the VFL's Fothergill-Round-Mitchell Medal is a question that will be asked given Collingwood's lacking key position stocks.

Grade: A'

--
It may be the first time since 2013 I've felt like I can actually give Collingwood a positive review. Collingwood selected relative value with the first two choices and Ruscoe while not quite inside my top 55, I consider suitable as someone I have in my top 65 and consider suitable late/rookie.



Somehow there is always that one Carlton supporter.

I can never understand why 😂
Wasn't the 2013 draft a disaster for Collingwood? 2 top ten picks and what did we get, one player who has played a handful of games. I'm confused Knightmare what do you mean?
 

ThePheonix

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Wasn't the 2013 draft a disaster for Collingwood? 2 top ten picks and what did we get, one player who is played an handful of games. I'm confused Knightmare what so you mean?
I'm talking of my view at the time.

Langdon and Marsh particularly I liked for value late. I was pretty well right with those guys - albeit Marsh needed to return home.
Thank you Knightmare, I do respect your opinion.
 

Knightmare

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Thank you Knightmare, I do respect your opinion.
The disappointing component has been the injuries to Scharenberg/Freeman. Who could have predicted? I didn't love Freeman that early and Scharenberg wasn't my preferred, but still liked the pick. But as before, really liked Langdon (and the year before he was picked) along with Marsh.
 

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Markfs

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I've had a look at your stuff a few times in the past and it's an interesting process. I like how you use long term references to the old threads to see how you're going warts and all. I spent 15 minutes or so on the degoey draft and an earlier one. I have to agree with you on the beams assessment. There seems to be a thing with all the clubs to dismiss the importance of future draft picks ... and then the future becomes the present and everyone realises that we are missing out on a 1st rounder this year. The pick trade gold coast did with geelong probably reflects their casual approach to high end draft picks but I cant believe they did that. I'm not even sure the pies tigers round 1 swap will be neutral... anyway that's really about drafting.

I was wondering what you considered your most significant win over Derek over the years you've been doing this.....
 

Matt_352

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If we had just gone Riccardi over Ruscoe I'd give our draft a 10/10. For the picks we had we've done very well.
 

cityslick1

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Will Drew is the one I am tracking, based on your comments at the time, & the fact we took McLarty ahead of him at 30. Do you still rate him highly, as we clearly got that pick wrong. Tom Stewart at 40.... 😳
 

Knightmare

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I've had a look at your stuff a few times in the past and it's an interesting process. I like how you use long term references to the old threads to see how you're going warts and all. I spent 15 minutes or so on the degoey draft and an earlier one. I have to agree with you on the beams assessment. There seems to be a thing with all the clubs to dismiss the importance of future draft picks ... and then the future becomes the present and everyone realises that we are missing out on a 1st rounder this year. The pick trade gold coast did with geelong probably reflects their casual approach to high end draft picks but I cant believe they did that. I'm not even sure the pies tigers round 1 swap will be neutral... anyway that's really about drafting.

I was wondering what you considered your most significant win over Derek over the years you've been doing this.....
I think looking ahead to next year, clubs have been far too liberal with how freely they've given away future first round picks. Picks have more value in the year of that draft. Whether used as trade chips. Whether used to move up/down the draft next year.

Seeing trades like Melbourne parting with their 2020 first + 26+50 for 8. Gold Coast trading pick 11 in next years draft + a late pick to get pick 27. Giving up future firsts is a ridiculous idea unless it's netting you a star and the value even with the probable future value of that pick is considered, is considered clearly advantageous

I think there is a number of clubs that will learn hard lessons over the next few years about how to manage future picks. Collingwood unfortunately were the first victim having gone through that Beams trade.

Gold Coast were going to take Sharp at 15, which is why they could justify throwing pick 11 in next years draft at him. Still understanding that, at pick 11 next year I'd still expect someone I'd rate more highly than that given variation on draft boards are going to happen at any time in the draft.

Sydney Stack from last year may prove in this series my largest win over Hine in this series.

Historically. Ben Brown would be as someone in 2010 I would have picked in the national draft.
 
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Knightmare

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If we had just gone Riccardi over Ruscoe I'd give our draft a 10/10. For the picks we had we've done very well.
Ruscoe I'm not sleeping on. He's 192cm and does it all. Strong, can play def/fwd/mid. Good skills, vision, agility, evasion and is reliable capable intercept mark. He has some good tools. He's one I considered in my extended power rankings but ultimately having only seen his u18 champs play I didn't quite feel confident enough to list him ahead of some of those others I've seen a lot more of and feel more confident in who I think they can become. Ruscoe is one where I'm really interested. In a conversation with someone today they said he reminded them of Jake Stringer, and they're not far wrong. He has some of those same tools. Can be inconsistent and go missing at times whcih is why he was moved back this year. But he's interesting and developable.

But like you if asked who I'd favour and it's one or the other, I'm taking Riccardi.

Will Drew is the one I am tracking, based on your comments at the time, & the fact we took McLarty ahead of him at 30. Do you still rate him highly, as we clearly got that pick wrong. Tom Stewart at 40.... 😳
Tom Stewart at 40 was an incredible choice for Geelong. Drew I still like and would have liked to have seen given greater midfielder opportunity this year. Not as much as I did at the time of the draft, but looks AFL standard and love what he does at stoppages.
 
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Markfs

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I think looking ahead to next year, clubs have been far too liberal with how freely they've given away future first round picks. Picks have more value in the year of that draft. Whether used as trade chips. Whether used to move up/down the draft next year.

Seeing trades like Melbourne parting with their 2020 first + 26+50 for 8. Gold Coast trading pick 11 in next years draft + a late pick to get pick 27. Giving up future firsts is a ridiculous idea unless it's netting you a star and the value even with the probable future value of that pick is considered, is considered clearly advantageous

I think there is a number of clubs that will learn hard lessons over the next few years about how to manage future picks. Collingwood unfortunately were the first victim having gone through that Beams trade.

Gold Coast were going to take Sharp at 15, which is why they could justify throwing pick 11 in next years draft at him. Still understanding that, at pick 11 next year I'd still expect someone I'd rate more highly than that given variation on draft boards are going to happen at any time in the draft.

Sydney Stack from last year may prove in this series my largest win over Hine in this series.

Historically. Ben Brown would be as someone in 2010 I would have picked in the national draft.
As I said, I agree with you with the trading of future picks. It makes me think that the recruiting boys lose their heads a bit.... maybe they get a little light headed stuck in that room together because I would rarely trade future picks if it was my choice. I was thinking that there is a real danger that bubble can burst and then the future picks suddenly become more valuable and the club can't use them to rebuild..... a nightmare scenario.

Actually, I was thinking that the reverse might be the best strategy..... sell a first rounder for 2 first rounders next year etc etc...

I saw your syd stack pick. I actually think we are too focussed on "good citizens".....perfect families etc etc. I definitely would speculate more with indigenous players... not necessarily in the first round but there's a ton of them buzzing around the local leagues. I know that's the case with the WAFL. I dont care what Tim Kelly's family situation and lack of professionalism might have been, surely someone must have considered rookieing him in the past. The same goes for Stack.

Ridiculously, the club has employed or maybe they are volunteer, a new indigenous and minority group welfare officer. They did it last week. I thought that was going to mean that we were going to bring someone indigenous in. He must have been appointed for Bianco.....welfare for italians...
 

Knightmare

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As I said, I agree with you with the trading of future picks. It makes me think that the recruiting boys lose their heads a bit.... maybe they get a little light headed stuck in that room together because I would rarely trade future picks if it was my choice. I was thinking that there is a real danger that bubble can burst and then the future picks suddenly become more valuable and the club can't use them to rebuild..... a nightmare scenario.

Actually, I was thinking that the reverse might be the best strategy..... sell a first rounder for 2 first rounders next year etc etc...

I saw your syd stack pick. I actually think we are too focussed on "good citizens".....perfect families etc etc. I definitely would speculate more with indigenous players... not necessarily in the first round but there's a ton of them buzzing around the local leagues. I know that's the case with the WAFL. I dont care what Tim Kelly's family situation and lack of professionalism might have been, surely someone must have considered rookieing him in the past. The same goes for Stack.

Ridiculously, the club has employed or maybe they are volunteer, a new indigenous and minority group welfare officer. They did it last week. I thought that was going to mean that we were going to bring someone indigenous in. He must have been appointed for Bianco.....welfare for italians...
I have the same idea in mind re going two first rounders for one. Let clubs take this years if it means they give their firsts for this year and next year. Getting two firsts over a two year period from a team or even if a second and then a first can be had for a first.

While the industry have yet to develop this view, my thinking is - let's say the quality of the draft from year to year is equal. If say pick 15 can be exchange for what looks like a late first round pick for the following year. My view is that late first for the following year is more valuable. I'm seeing it from the perspective that eg. pick 15 this year, I might get something like the 7th guy on my draft board. Get something around that pick next year and I might get again someone around that same range or it may instead secure me a player or a player and a pick the following year I consider to be even more valuable with picks in my view generally overvalued in relation to established players. My view towards future picks over current picks is a soft view, and given clubs are over-exaggerating the importance of getting picks in the draft year we're in, and the likelihood that that will continue for at least a few more years, I'd be very much looking at ways to maximise the long term returns.

In terms of personalities at the club (playing personnel) it seems like there is a real mixed bag. Some leaders and good guys, others who are talented but probably not your natural model citizens. I happen to agree with you I'd be open to more who aren't those model citizens with the condition being that the club's culture needs to be strong to be able to absorb a few of those if they're representing particular value in a draft.
 

sr36

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--
It may be the first time since 2013 I've felt like I can actually give Collingwood a positive review. Collingwood selected relative value with the first two choices and Ruscoe while not quite inside my top 55, I consider suitable as someone I have in my top 65 and consider suitable late/rookie.
You should keep it a bit quiet that you rated our 2013 haul, but not our 2014 haul.
 

sr36

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I've had a look at your stuff a few times in the past and it's an interesting process. I like how you use long term references to the old threads to see how you're going warts and all. I spent 15 minutes or so on the degoey draft and an earlier one. I have to agree with you on the beams assessment. There seems to be a thing with all the clubs to dismiss the importance of future draft picks ... and then the future becomes the present and everyone realises that we are missing out on a 1st rounder this year. The pick trade gold coast did with geelong probably reflects their casual approach to high end draft picks but I cant believe they did that. I'm not even sure the pies tigers round 1 swap will be neutral... anyway that's really about drafting.

I was wondering what you considered your most significant win over Derek over the years you've been doing this.....
But there also seems to be a bit of a thing at this time of year, where we rue not having had a pick to get a particular kid. We then later ignore it when that kid doesn't make the grade.
 

sr36

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I have the same idea in mind re going two first rounders for one. Let clubs take this years if it means they give their firsts for this year and next year. Getting two firsts over a two year period from a team or even if a second and then a first can be had for a first.

While the industry have yet to develop this view, my thinking is - let's say the quality of the draft from year to year is equal. If say pick 15 can be exchange for what looks like a late first round pick for the following year. My view is that late first for the following year is more valuable. I'm seeing it from the perspective that eg. pick 15 this year, I might get something like the 7th guy on my draft board. Get something around that pick next year and I might get again someone around that same range or it may instead secure me a player or a player and a pick the following year I consider to be even more valuable with picks in my view generally overvalued in relation to established players. My view towards future picks over current picks is a soft view, and given clubs are over-exaggerating the importance of getting picks in the draft year we're in, and the likelihood that that will continue for at least a few more years, I'd be very much looking at ways to maximise the long term returns.

In terms of personalities at the club (playing personnel) it seems like there is a real mixed bag. Some leaders and good guys, others who are talented but probably not your natural model citizens. I happen to agree with you I'd be open to more who aren't those model citizens with the condition being that the club's culture needs to be strong to be able to absorb a few of those if they're representing particular value in a draft.
I'm totally with you on trading out of drafts to bank future picks; however, it sounds like next year isn't the draft to be holding too many picks. Is it looking as weak outside of academy kids as this year's trading would suggest?
 

Gabbo64

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If we had just gone Riccardi over Ruscoe I'd give our draft a 10/10. For the picks we had we've done very well.
Riccardi went before our Ruscoe pick so we would have had to sacrifice Bianco to get him. Obviously the club rated Bianco higher than Riccardi. Maybe because the Bianco's have their own restaurant.!!
 

ThePheonix

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The disappointing component has been the injuries to Scharenberg/Freeman. Who could have predicted? I didn't love Freeman that early and Scharenberg wasn't my preferred, but still liked the pick. But as before, really liked Langdon (and the year before he was picked) along with Marsh.
I do remember what you wrote about Freeman at the time, something along the lines that, he is a good player but you weren't sure if he would be able make it or transition to AFL level.
 

Markfs

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I'm no expert, but i think the three guys look good. Hine does a good job - i think - but his "consistent" approach to drafting has been discussed often around here.
But there also seems to be a bit of a thing at this time of year, where we rue not having had a pick to get a particular kid. We then later ignore it when that kid doesn't make the grade.
I must have heard of 3 separate occasions that we were keen to trade back into the draft....one of them was the treloar thing and there was something on the first day about the club expressing a wish. There was another time about a month ago that i read it too....

There's an footy industry making pronouncements on winners and losers about these trade/drafting things. Clubs are losers!!! Boo boo.... Clubs are winners!! hooray...

look at this crap https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-10-16/trade-period-ranked-from-worst-to-best-whos-in-out-draft-hand

carlton were losers because sydney wouldnt trade papley....West coast were winners because tim kelly said he wanted to be traded to them and geelong was good enough to do it.... how the hell can you rate these things? But of course, the list managers dont want to be called losers....no one wants that these days... better to have the plague

so silvagni was a loser in trade period but a winner after the draft...

bell was a loser in the trade period but suddenly becomes a winner because the dockers had a load of draft picks..
 

Knightmare

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You should keep it a bit quiet that you rated our 2013 haul, but not our 2014 haul.
From memory I liked 2014 also, though for not the reasons people would assume. De Goey wasn't nearly my preference at 5. Moore I was fine with, Maynard I was fine with, Brandon Abbott for those who remember the name I liked as a rookie along with Cox who I was excited about.
 

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