Hinesight v Knightsight v Hindsight

Knightmare

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I'm totally with you on trading out of drafts to bank future picks; however, it sounds like next year isn't the draft to be holding too many picks. Is it looking as weak outside of academy kids as this year's trading would suggest?
Next year is heavily compromised. I'm in the process of putting together a solid top 20.

From my preliminary top 30, 8 of those are linked to a club through F/S, Academy or NGA.

If it wasn't compromised it may be a touch better than this year's but being compromised the clubs of those first and second round picks see them as slightly less valuable than this year. I don't see a lot in it, this year is below average as is anyway.

I do remember what you wrote about Freeman at the time, something along the lines that, he is a good player but you weren't sure if he would be able make it or transition to AFL level.
Freeman had the explosiveness and good kick but I just wasn't completely convinced he would be able to become a dominant enough contested ball winner to become the midfielder the club had envisaged/that he showed glimpses of becoming. Hard to know now though as he's never had a decent run at it.
 

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LaCasaBianco

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Riccardi went before our Ruscoe pick so we would have had to sacrifice Bianco to get him. Obviously the club rated Bianco higher than Riccardi. Maybe because the Bianco's have their own restaurant.!!
It was the same pick, we chose to trade down instead and GWS immediately used our pick to select him. Clearly, we didn't have interest in him it seems.

I am starting to think there is a real strong possibility that the club is considering moving Moore up forward if the Cameron experiment fails and I would love to see nothing more than for Moore to go forward if one of Ruscoe/ Kelly can play the key back role along with Langdon playing the "Rance role".

Ruscoe looks ready made being 190cm -90kg and his highlights show it too. He just needs to earn his spot over the next few months.

As for Bianco, to think he was available at pick 40 had me beyond surprised and shocked but to then pass on him had me lost for words and confused. Other than Brisbane getting Robertson with pick 22, this is one of the biggest bargains I have ever seen. He is a top 25 player and I am very confident he will prove it next season. We have got ourselves another winger and one that can use the ball too!
 

Apex36

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Riccardi went before our Ruscoe pick so we would have had to sacrifice Bianco to get him. Obviously the club rated Bianco higher than Riccardi. Maybe because the Bianco's have their own restaurant.!!
Riccardi went with the pick that we traded away to GWS bud. He was literally in our hands and we gave him away.
 

Fratbrat

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It was the same pick, we chose to trade down instead and GWS immediately used our pick to select him. Clearly, we didn't have interest in him it seems.

I am starting to think there is a real strong possibility that the club is considering moving Moore up forward if the Cameron experiment fails and I would love to see nothing more than for Moore to go forward if one of Ruscoe/ Kelly can play the key back role along with Langdon playing the "Rance role".

Ruscoe looks ready made being 190cm -90kg and his highlights show it too. He just needs to earn his spot over the next few months.

As for Bianco, to think he was available at pick 40 had me beyond surprised and shocked but to then pass on him had me lost for words and confused. Other than Brisbane getting Robertson with pick 22, this is one of the biggest bargains I have ever seen. He is a top 25 player and I am very confident he will prove it next season. We have got ourselves another winger and one that can use the ball too!
It feels like we got 3 top 30 players, didn't expect to be this excited but they all bring something special to the table and we did it with bugger all to play with.
 

noideaatall

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Fascinating thread, thanks Knightmare and contributors. I know nothing but sounds a bit like drafting suffers from the same disease that inflicts all walks of human life. Gratification now vs delayed gratification - most choose now. That is understandable in an environment where coaches and administration are under pressure to produce now, not down the track.

Will we see clubs that have the fortitude to delay gratification build dynasties or does the attempts to level the competition and constant changing of the ground rules by the AFL rule out advantage by playing the long game?
 

sr36

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From memory I liked 2014 also, though for not the reasons people would assume. De Goey wasn't nearly my preference at 5. Moore I was fine with, Maynard I was fine with, Brandon Abbott for those who remember the name I liked as a rookie along with Cox who I was excited about.
I find it remarkable how good Degoey suddenly became. Was his pace always obvious? In his first couple of years of senior footy, I thought he was average paced. Then suddenly, he was off the charts.
 

Knightmare

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Fascinating thread, thanks Knightmare and contributors. I know nothing but sounds a bit like drafting suffers from the same disease that inflicts all walks of human life. Gratification now vs delayed gratification - most choose now. That is understandable in an environment where coaches and administration are under pressure to produce now, not down the track.

Will we see clubs that have the fortitude to delay gratification build dynasties or does the attempts to level the competition and constant changing of the ground rules by the AFL rule out advantage by playing the long game?
A good comment re. delayed gratification and I feel like there is something to that theory. Cash in at the right time, or keep cashing it out for more and more in the long run.

There also has historically been too much of a push towards having a certain amount of youth and a lot of focus on average list age demographics. In some respects and particularly with the recruitment of mature age prospects in their mid and late 20s AFL clubs have a blind spot. Last year Mitch Grigg could have been re-drafted. The last 3 and 4 Haiden Schloithe and Jye Bolton respectively each season had that level of game. I'm seeing these types not even nominating anymore as players who I view as walk-up starts for most teams.

Through the draft it's so much about bringing in the best youth and through the trade period clubs will often overpay for picks.

With clubs having their particular agendas or instructions/expectations of them, sub-optimal decisions continue to be made within the industry with opportunities being lost and clubs not making the most of their opportunities.
 

Knightmare

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I find it remarkable how good Degoey suddenly became. Was his pace always obvious? In his first couple of years of senior footy, I thought he was average paced. Then suddenly, he was off the charts.
De Goey is a lot better than he was as a junior. As a junior he wasn't hitting the scoreboard very much at all. Athletically he seemed more high work rate than overly explosive as he is now, so I agree with you there. Same goes for strength. He was somewhat dynamic, but not like he is now.

My projection of the time was that De Goey becomes something like Colin Sylvia, which in hindsight isn't a terrible projection in terms of the types of things he can do, it's just obviously well under who De Goey has become these past couple of seasons. But that's the type and quality of player De Goey looked like roughly becoming.
 

Saintly Viewed

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De Goey is a lot better than he was as a junior. As a junior he wasn't hitting the scoreboard very much at all. Athletically he seemed more high work rate than overly explosive as he is now, so I agree with you there. Same goes for strength. He was somewhat dynamic, but not like he is now.

My projection of the time was that De Goey becomes something like Colin Sylvia, which in hindsight isn't a terrible projection in terms of the types of things he can do, it's just obviously well under who De Goey has become these past couple of seasons. But that's the type and quality of player De Goey looked like roughly becoming.
Tragic story is Colin Sylvia.
courted and found trouble early days and then into his careeer which didn’t help his football. In ways an unfulfilled talent.
a cautionary tale for all footballers.
Seemed to have finally settled himself, then the waste of someone dying so young.
very very sad.
 

Knightmare

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Tragic story is Colin Sylvia.
courted and found trouble early days and then into his careeer which didn’t help his football. In ways an unfulfilled talent.
a cautionary tale for all footballers.
Seemed to have finally settled himself, then the waste of someone dying so young.
very very sad.
Indeed.

De Goey had his own off-field issues early days, but has done a great job in developing the right footy/life balance and is now getting the most of both and maximising his potential.
 

Saintly Viewed

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Indeed.

De Goey had his own off-field issues early days, but has done a great job in developing the right footy/life balance and is now getting the most of both and maximising his potential.
So important for the young players to get smart quickly.
getting around better people.
making better decisions.
everyone is different and some love the night life. But love it with a bit of sense. Love it a bit more at home.
leigh Matthews used to say: not much good comes after 11pm. Especially with alcohol.

i think the three of we’ve taken all have their heads screwed on Properly.

Rantall already dedicated enough to make a junior national team. Same for Tom Wilson. Means they are far easier to coach and get the most out of themselves.

just loved kevin Sheehan saying about Rantall, he’s going to set high standards at training.
Love it. Just makes development far easier.
 

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Knightmare

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So important for the young players to get smart quickly.
getting around better people.
making better decisions.
everyone is different and some love the night life. But love it with a bit of sense. Love it a bit more at home.
leigh Matthews used to say: not much good comes after 11pm. Especially with alcohol.

i think the three of we’ve taken all have their heads screwed on Properly.

Rantall already dedicated enough to make a junior national team. Same for Tom Wilson. Means they are far easier to coach and get the most out of themselves.

just loved kevin Sheehan saying about Rantall, he’s going to set high standards at training.
Love it. Just makes development far easier.
They're all high character guys. Rantall/Bianco if things really work out could have leadership potential down the track.

And Leigh Matthews is definitely right with that theory.

The hint with Rantall is he's been not only a national basketball prospect but also broke the draft combine 2km record by 14sec while also winning the yo-yo (comparable to the beep test). You're not getting those kinds of results if you're not putting in the work and committing to your craft.
 

Knightmare

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Random note. In going through my top 20 for 2020 and there are four key forwards I have in that range on my board at this early stage. It will be interesting to see whether Collingwood can trade up to a pick ahead of whatever bid may come for NGA prospect Reef McInness.

The piece I'm hoping ESPN put up tomorrow at some stage.
 

barrackers

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Random note. In going through my top 20 for 2020 and there are four key forwards I have in that range on my board at this early stage. It will be interesting to see whether Collingwood can trade up to a pick ahead of whatever bid may come for NGA prospect Reef McInness.

The piece I'm hoping ESPN put up tomorrow at some stage.
It would certainly be a welcome strategic shift by the club. Since the bidding system came in I've been lamenting that we keep pushing picks back (eg. Beams trade) or opting to accumulate junk picks for points (eg. Witts trade) instead of trying to jump a perspective bid.
 

Chrispiesssss

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Unfortunately, 2 of the 3 players I preferred didn’t get drafted. If I could have 3 players with our picks: Dyson Hilder, Darcy Chirgwin & Brady Rowles. Oh well, wasn’t to be, so I’ve just chosen 3 players out of the players drafted:

Pick 40: Jay Rantall. Agree with Hine on this pick.

Pick 45 : Trey Ruscoe. Pick him higher up. Although, I wouldn’t have minded Emerson Jeka. Trey is definitely a defender. Jeka could be an elite forward.

Pick 55 : Brady Rowles. He’s on the swans rookie list atm.

Also, I would have had a cheeky dig at Hugh Dixon from the Dockers. IMO, he’s gonna breakout but never with the influx of Forwards at the dockers.
 

Matt_352

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Riccardi went before our Ruscoe pick so we would have had to sacrifice Bianco to get him. Obviously the club rated Bianco higher than Riccardi. Maybe because the Bianco's have their own restaurant.!!
Didn't we trade a pick down?
 

Matt_352

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Random note. In going through my top 20 for 2020 and there are four key forwards I have in that range on my board at this early stage. It will be interesting to see whether Collingwood can trade up to a pick ahead of whatever bid may come for NGA prospect Reef McInness.

The piece I'm hoping ESPN put up tomorrow at some stage.
Sounds good Knightmare
 

pugsville

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Random note. In going through my top 20 for 2020 and there are four key forwards I have in that range on my board at this early stage. It will be interesting to see whether Collingwood can trade up to a pick ahead of whatever bid may come for NGA prospect Reef McInness.

The piece I'm hoping ESPN put up tomorrow at some stage.
With the large number of Academy, F/S , NGA, there coudl be a fair scope of movement if ealry draft picks, some wanting up and some wanting down.,. So depends exactly where Reef Mcinness is likely to go, if he;s not too pionty end of thr darft they may be scope from a club whose prospect will be to do a trade, into the pointyier than Reef end of the draft, teh trend of more pick traidng both trade week and live should get greater,
 

Jelly Bean

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It was the same pick, we chose to trade down instead and GWS immediately used our pick to select him. Clearly, we didn't have interest in him it seems.

I am starting to think there is a real strong possibility that the club is considering moving Moore up forward if the Cameron experiment fails and I would love to see nothing more than for Moore to go forward if one of Ruscoe/ Kelly can play the key back role along with Langdon playing the "Rance role".

Ruscoe looks ready made being 190cm -90kg and his highlights show it too. He just needs to earn his spot over the next few months.

As for Bianco, to think he was available at pick 40 had me beyond surprised and shocked but to then pass on him had me lost for words and confused. Other than Brisbane getting Robertson with pick 22, this is one of the biggest bargains I have ever seen. He is a top 25 player and I am very confident he will prove it next season. We have got ourselves another winger and one that can use the ball too!
We can't get too carried away with Ruscoe... Not many 190-192 cm players can hold down a key position. And not many players taken beyond 30 in the draft become someone. And not many utilities become key defenders. Very small likelihood he makes it in my view.
 

Knightmare

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Did you see amy of this Trey kid when he waa playing mid/forward? Does he project as defence only in AFL?
Have seen little of him mid/fwd as most of what I've seen of him is from U18 Champs play where he played back. He's a plausible through either spot due to his attributes but I favour him in defence at this stage seeing him mostly there but also having played his more consistent football in defence whereas before that switch he was very hot/cold.
 

Chrispiesssss

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Knightmare might be a silly question, but has a key position forward ever dominated in the under 18’ comp that also dominated in the seniors comp?

It’s hard enough in the Major league don’t think it would be any easier in the under age league.
 

Knightmare

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Knightmare might be a silly question, but has a key position forward ever dominated in the under 18’ comp that also dominated in the seniors comp?

It’s hard enough in the Major league don’t think it would be any easier in the under age league.
Most key forwards who dominate at AFL level are producing as juniors. That's why it's generally those who go early tend to do best.

The exceptions tend to be the later bloomers who grow later, though these guys also tend to go earlier.

Jack Darling was a dominant junior, Tom Hawkins also Jesse Hogan top of mind.

For me the equation is a combination of
1. rate of improvement (essential because they're normally not great until years 3 or 4 and beyond)
2. production
3. points of difference

The more emphatically that combination of boxes is ticked the more probable the chance of career success.

Those who dominate as juniors often can be misses if they don't in their draft year continue with that high rate of improvement, so that's the thing to be aware of and why some key forwards a year out might be seen as first rounders but then go undrafted the next year.

Those who performed as juniors otherwise but didn't kick on at AFL level have largely been for injury reasons or mental health reasons (Tom Boyd and Reece McKenzie being two notable examples of that).
 

TradeDraft

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Random note. In going through my top 20 for 2020 and there are four key forwards I have in that range on my board at this early stage. It will be interesting to see whether Collingwood can trade up to a pick ahead of whatever bid may come for NGA prospect Reef McInness.

The piece I'm hoping ESPN put up tomorrow at some stage.
Well we could do what GWS and Freo did and Trade Up above where Reef will get 2 picks in 1st Round
 

Knightmare

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Well we could do what GWS and Freo did and Trade Up above where Reef will get 2 picks in 1st Round
That could be a strategy to consider. Ultimately it depends where Reef is rated this time next year. Is he worth more like pick 5? Pick 20? It could change drastically over the next 12 months, but I have him probably just outside my top-10 for now.
 

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