Historical Grand Final Betting Odds

[PerthBoy86]

Curious, is there anywhere where one can find what the betting odds prior to the Grand Final for years past? For the major agencies anyway. Like say, the last 20 years at least, if not longer? I'm curious how often the underdog has won/favourite has lost. Collingwood were narrow faves last year, but it was really 50/50, whereas Swans and Crows were both favourites if I recall. It feels Tigers are the strongest favourites atm, pending final team selections, at about $1.30 to the Giants at $3+ last time I checked. Probably the strongest favourites in a GF this millennium, moreso than 08. Maybe only 00 compares?

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Favourites (Winner)

2018: Collingwood (West Coast)
2017: Adelaide (Richmond)
2016: Sydney (Western Bulldogs)
2015: Hawthorn (Hawthorn)
2014: Sydney (Hawthorn)
2013: Hawthorn (Hawthorn)
2012: Hawthorn (Sydney)
2011: Geelong (Geelong)
2010: Collingwood (Collingwood
2009: Geelong (Geelong)
2008: Geelong (Hawthorn)
2007: Geelong (Geelong)
2006: West Coast (West Coast)
2005: Sydney (Sydney)
2004: Brisbane (Port Adelaide)
2003: Collingwood (Brisbane)
2002: Brisbane (Brisbane)
2001: Brisbane (Brisbane)
2000: Essendon (Essendon)

 

[theyellowsash]

Being favourite this year makes me nervous.

 

[the_big_sav]

surprised brisbane were in 01

 

[CarterS]

Favourites (Winner)

2018: Collingwood (West Coast)
2017: Adelaide (Richmond)
2016: Sydney (Western Bulldogs)
2015: Hawthorn (Hawthorn)
2014: Sydney (Hawthorn)
2013: Hawthorn (Hawthorn)
2012: Hawthorn (Sydney)
2011: Geelong (Geelong)
2010: Collingwood (Collingwood
2009: Geelong (Geelong)
2008: Geelong (Hawthorn)
2007: Geelong (Geelong)
2006: West Coast (West Coast)
2005: Sydney (Sydney)
2004: Brisbane (Port Adelaide)
2003: Collingwood (Brisbane)
2002: Brisbane (Brisbane)
2001: Brisbane (Brisbane)
2000: Essendon (Essendon)

Outsider won last 3...interesting.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Favourites (Winner)

2018: Collingwood (West Coast)
2017: Adelaide (Richmond)
2016: Sydney (Western Bulldogs)
2015: Hawthorn (Hawthorn)
2014: Sydney (Hawthorn)
2013: Hawthorn (Hawthorn)
2012: Hawthorn (Sydney)
2011: Geelong (Geelong)
2010: Collingwood (Collingwood
2009: Geelong (Geelong)
2008: Geelong (Hawthorn)
2007: Geelong (Geelong)
2006: West Coast (West Coast)
2005: Sydney (Sydney)
2004: Brisbane (Port Adelaide)
2003: Collingwood (Brisbane)
2002: Brisbane (Brisbane)
2001: Brisbane (Brisbane)
2000: Essendon (Essendon)

So 8 out of 19 times the favourite lost, interesting. Would be interesting to know what the odds were. Interesting Sydney were faves in 2005 after they lost a close QF to us first week, and played an extra game. Likewise us in 2006 in the same position.

 

[TassieSaint]

Outsider won last 3...interesting.

That's why the specific odds would be handy for context. I feel like from memory the Dogs were massive outsiders say, whilst West Coast Collingwood was more of a 50/50 with Pies slight faves due to it being at the G.

 

[Giant Pete]

Smart money is with Richmond. Everything points to them winning.

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Search up historical odds australia since 2009. I'll try find it later

 

[blue harvest]

Betting odds are just that, they don't represent the actual chances of winning.
In 2014 Tom Waterhouse had Hawks at $2.30 and then offered $4 on GF day.
Anyone with half a brain knew it was ridiculous, we had beaten them just a few weeks earlier at the G.
The $3.20 on offer for the Giants at the moment is also ridiculous, they are a good chance on Saturday.

 

[danielgb123]

1. 2010 Grand Final (Game 1): Collingwood $1.41, St Kilda $2.88 (Drawn)
2. 2010 Grand Final (Game 2): Collingwood $1.59, St Kilda $2.33
3. 2011 Grand Final: Collingwood $1.96, Geelong $1.80
4. 2012 Grand Final: Hawthorn $1.52, Sydney $2.53
5. 2013 Grand Final: Hawthorn $1.61, Fremantle $2.31
6. 2014 Grand Final: Sydney $1.57, Hawthorn $2.41
7. 2015 Grand Final: West Coast $2.39, Hawthorn $1.58
8. 2016 Grand Final: Sydney $1.51, Western Bulldogs $2.60
9. 2017 Grand Final: Adelaide $1.64, Richmond $2.26
10. 2018 Grand Final: West Coast $2.24, Collingwood $1.67

 

[estibador]

surprised brisbane were in 01

Surely Essendon were. I remember that feeling like a big upset.

 

[Furn2]

So betting wise this is the most one sided in recorded history ?

Cats in 07 and Bombers 2000 would have been more one-sided.

 

[NonPhixion]

Smart money is with Richmond. Everything points to them winning.

Line has actually come in from 18.5 - 17.5

 

[Sentinel]

1. 2010 Grand Final (Game 1): Collingwood $1.41, St Kilda $2.88 (Drawn)
2. 2010 Grand Final (Game 2): Collingwood $1.59, St Kilda $2.33
3. 2011 Grand Final: Collingwood $1.96, Geelong $1.80
4. 2012 Grand Final: Hawthorn $1.52, Sydney $2.53
5. 2013 Grand Final: Hawthorn $1.61, Fremantle $2.31
6. 2014 Grand Final: Sydney $1.57, Hawthorn $2.41
7. 2015 Grand Final: West Coast $2.39, Hawthorn $1.58
8. 2016 Grand Final: Sydney $1.51, Western Bulldogs $2.60
9. 2017 Grand Final: Adelaide $1.64, Richmond $2.26
10. 2018 Grand Final: West Coast $2.24, Collingwood $1.67

So GWS at about $3.10 currently the biggest outsider over the past decade. Hawks were at $3.05 in 2008 when they rolled the Cats.

 

[Dan26]

Surely Essendon were. I remember that feeling like a big upset.

Nah, Brisbane had won 15 in a row going into the GF. Essendon has been out of form since about round 16.

 

[Coach_Required]

Nah, Brisbane had won 15 in a row going into the GF. Essendon has been out of form since about round 16.

 

[JMarra]

Gamble responsobllay

 

[4THAWN]

Betting odds are just that, they don't represent the actual chances of winning.
In 2014 Tom Waterhouse had Hawks at $2.30 and then offered $4 on GF day.
Anyone with half a brain knew it was ridiculous, we had beaten them just a few weeks earlier at the G.
The $3.20 on offer for the Giants at the moment is also ridiculous, they are a good chance on Saturday.


View attachment 753471

excluding promos, betting odds are pretty good measurements of "chances of winning".

Money talks, a whole lot more than say tips.

 

[TassieSaint]

So betting wise this is the most one sided in recorded history ?

Cats in 07 and Bombers 2000 would have been more one-sided.

That got me curious, bit of googling I found this thread on an old dog racing forum:
Link
Geelong $1.36, Port $3.00. So the Giants are actually longer than Port were lol.

For context Port had beaten Geelong at Kardinia that year and we're coming off a prelim flogging, whereas the Cats had come down to the wire against the Pies. Still hilarious in retrospect.

Also, how's old mate in the greyhound thread urging everyone to get on port at +39.5

 

[Dan26]

View attachment 753533

Closer to Grand Final day, Brisbane has slowly would in the odds and started favourites.

This stuff you've quoted about "seemingly unbeatable Essendon outfit" is pure crap (not your words I know). Essendon lost 5 home and awya games in 2001 and had a percenatge in the mid 130's. They fell over the line in the Preliminary Final, and had won only 5 of their last 9 games for the season, with two of those wins being close. Whoever wrote that article seems to be referring to Essendon the year before.

I'd suggest Essendon might have started favourites immediately after the Prelim, but by the time the Grand Final started, Brisbane would have been slight favourites, and certainly deserved to be favourites.

 

[Ron The Bear]

TAB’s Grand Final odds

1995 – Carlton ($1.87) defeated Geelong ($2) by 61 points
1996 – North Melbourne ($1.29) defeated Sydney ($3.60) by 43 points
1997 – St Kilda ($1.32) lost to Adelaide ($3.40) by 31 points
1998 – North Melbourne ($1.50) lost to Adelaide ($2.62) by 35 points
1999 – North Melbourne ($1.25) defeated Carlton ($3.50) by 35 points
2000 – Essendon ($1.20) defeated Melbourne ($4.50) by 60 points
2001 – Essendon ($1.80) lost to Brisbane ($2) by 26 points
2002 – Brisbane ($1.22) defeated Collingwood ($4.25) by 9 points
2003 – Collingwood ($1.80) lost to Brisbane ($2.05) by 50 points
2004 – Brisbane ($1.47) lost to Port Adelaide ($2.75) by 40 points
2005 – Sydney ($1.85) defeated West Coast ($2) by 4 points
2006 – West Coast ($1.62) defeated Sydney ($2.35) by 1 point
2007 – Geelong ($1.42) defeated Port Adelaide ($3) by 119 points
2008 – Geelong ($1.38) lost to Hawthorn ($3.25) by 26 points
2009 – Geelong ($1.58) defeated St Kilda ($2.42) by 12 points
2010 – Collingwood ($1.40) drew with St Kilda ($3)
2010 Replay – Collingwood ($1.60) defeated St Kilda ($2.40) by 56 points
2011 – Geelong ($1.82) defeated Collingwood ($2.05) by 38 points
2012 – Hawthorn ($1.55) lost to Sydney ($2.55) by 10 points
2013 – Hawthorn ($1.60) defeated Fremantle ($2.40) by 15 points
2014 – Sydney ($1.55) lost to Hawthorn ($2.55) by 63 points
2015 – Hawthorn ($1.60) defeated West Coast ($2.45) by 46 points
2016 – Sydney ($1.52) lost to Western Bulldogs ($2.60) by 22 points
2017 – Adelaide ($1.65) lost to Richmond ($2.30) by 48 points

https://www.bigbonusbets.com.au/tabs-afl-grand-final-betting-guide-2018/

Adelaide 1997 the biggest upset of modern times.

 

[Coach_Required]

Closer to Grand Final day, Brisbane has slowly would in the odds and started favourites.

This stuff you've quoted about "seemingly unbeatable Essendon outfit" is pure crap (not your words I know). Essendon lost 5 home and awya games in 2001 and had a percenatge in the mid 130's. They fell over the line in the Preliminary Final, and had won only 5 of their last 9 games for the season, with two of those wins being close. Whoever wrote that article seems to be referring to Essendon the year before.

I'd suggest Essendon might have started favourites immediately after the Prelim, but by the time the Grand Final started, Brisbane would have been slight favourites, and certainly deserved to be favourites.

You might think it's crap, but that's just your opinion. Essendon were clearly the team to beat over 1999, 2000 & 2001 seasons.

 

[Coach_Required]

TAB’s Grand Final odds

1995 – Carlton ($1.87) defeated Geelong ($2) by 61 points
1996 – North Melbourne ($1.29) defeated Sydney ($3.60) by 43 points
1997 – St Kilda ($1.32) lost to Adelaide ($3.40) by 31 points
1998 – North Melbourne ($1.50) lost to Adelaide ($2.62) by 35 points
1999 – North Melbourne ($1.25) defeated Carlton ($3.50) by 35 points
2000 – Essendon ($1.20) defeated Melbourne ($4.50) by 60 points
2001 – Essendon ($1.80) lost to Brisbane ($2) by 26 points
2002 – Brisbane ($1.22) defeated Collingwood ($4.25) by 9 points
2003 – Collingwood ($1.80) lost to Brisbane ($2.05) by 50 points
2004 – Brisbane ($1.47) lost to Port Adelaide ($2.75) by 40 points
2005 – Sydney ($1.85) defeated West Coast ($2) by 4 points
2006 – West Coast ($1.62) defeated Sydney ($2.35) by 1 point
2007 – Geelong ($1.42) defeated Port Adelaide ($3) by 119 points
2008 – Geelong ($1.38) lost to Hawthorn ($3.25) by 26 points
2009 – Geelong ($1.58) defeated St Kilda ($2.42) by 12 points
2010 – Collingwood ($1.40) drew with St Kilda ($3)
2010 Replay – Collingwood ($1.60) defeated St Kilda ($2.40) by 56 points
2011 – Geelong ($1.82) defeated Collingwood ($2.05) by 38 points
2012 – Hawthorn ($1.55) lost to Sydney ($2.55) by 10 points
2013 – Hawthorn ($1.60) defeated Fremantle ($2.40) by 15 points
2014 – Sydney ($1.55) lost to Hawthorn ($2.55) by 63 points
2015 – Hawthorn ($1.60) defeated West Coast ($2.45) by 46 points
2016 – Sydney ($1.52) lost to Western Bulldogs ($2.60) by 22 points
2017 – Adelaide ($1.65) lost to Richmond ($2.30) by 48 points

https://www.bigbonusbets.com.au/tabs-afl-grand-final-betting-guide-2018/

Adelaide 1997 the biggest upset of modern times.

13 wins to favourites to 10 wins to the underdogs.

Saints in 97 were even bigger favourites than Richmond are atm.

end thread /

 

[BigVic]

Hawks were outsiders but defeated Geelong 11 years ago