Hobart stadium business case

[Cunnington Cartel]

According to most reports the best we expect to get back for the investment is between 50 and 70 cents in the dollar. Tell you what, you give me 1 billion dollars and I'll give you 700,000 back. A world class venue won't necessarily attract world class acts, the on cost for shipping here and back is the killer there (at least $3000 per container, each way). The music industry isn't going so well in Australia in case you haven't noticed. Oh and the cost of the roof is at least $190 million plus $60 million for maintenance. So, $250 million, a full quarter of the project's currently projected costs.

Reports have also said the economic benefit to the state from having Tasmanian AFL & AFLW teams is estimated at $120m per year. However, the financial sustainability and competitiveness of the club is dependent on playing 7 home games at a modern, 23k all-seater stadium near the CBD. Whereas a stadium without a roof will provide a worse benefit cost ratio (BCR) because it won’t attract enough near-capacity events.

It’s annoying when that 50-70c stadium figure is bandied about in isolation without any consideration given to the estimates of the entire project over a 20 year period (local club playing in a multipurpose stadium), and how that is actually a significant economic win for the state.

When the entire project is considered, the forecasted stadium deficit ($306.3m over 20 years) is blown out of the water by the $120m p/a benefit from having a full-time AFL club based in the Tasmanian community. This is before we even look at the possibility of new opportunities that the state could attract with a new stadium in the future, such as a Gather Round and a full-time A-League team (neither of which were included in the stadium business case).

It’s a shame that positive news doesn’t sell papers though, and instead most people rely on receiving their info from sensationalist journos via misleading politicians / anti-development types with agendas.

 

[Bipolar Bear]

Investors (rich people) buy government bonds. It's highly encouraged in times of recession/economic downturn.
Australian Government Debt is traded on the ASX, I'm not sure if that includes state debt or if that's a seperate investment.

Thank you, I am blue collar AF and don't know anything about that stuff!

Here's hoping Goldman Sachs don't come sniffing tho right?

 

[btdg]

Reports have also said the economic benefit to the state from having Tasmanian AFL & AFLW teams is estimated at $120m per year. However, the financial sustainability and competitiveness of the club is dependent on playing 7 home games at a modern, 23k all-seater stadium near the CBD. Whereas a stadium without a roof will provide a worse benefit cost ratio (BCR) because it won’t attract enough near-capacity events.

It’s annoying when that 50-70c stadium figure is bandied about in isolation without any consideration given to the estimates of the entire project over a 20 year period (local club playing in a multipurpose stadium), and how that is actually a significant economic win for the state.

When the entire project is considered, the forecasted stadium deficit ($306.3m over 20 years) is blown out of the water by the $120m p/a benefit from having a full-time AFL club based in the Tasmanian community. This is before we even look at the possibility of new opportunities that the state could attract with a new stadium in the future, such as a Gather Round and a full-time A-League team (neither of which were included in the stadium business case).

It’s a shame that positive news doesn’t sell papers though, and instead most people rely on receiving their info from sensationalist journos via misleading politicians / anti-development types with agendas.

The economic forecasting on these sorts of projects is the ultimate 'garbage in, garbage out' modelling anyway. Estimates based on estimates based on estimates = not worth the paper they are printed on. They only serve to justify enormous fees for consulting firms.

The key point is that either Tassie has am AFL team and hopefully a brand new stadium, or it doesn't.

Get the AFL team and who knows what flows from there. I do know that the AFL will back the project to the end, though, as they have with Gold Coast and GWS.

And once you HAVE a brilliant new stadium with a roof down by the beautiful waterfront area it is a lot easier to find things to put in it. Who knows what 'sticks'. Maybe it is a gather round? or concerts?

But it could be something else entirely - thinking bigger, it's probably not hard to see a world where Tassie looks at Melbourne's insane population and property growth and goes down a path of attracting Melbourne people and businesses to move there. Great lifestyle, beautiful city... And an AFL team is a pretty big drawcard tbh

 

[Saucery]

The economic forecasting on these sorts of projects is the ultimate 'garbage in, garbage out' modelling anyway. Estimates based on estimates based on estimates = not worth the paper they are printed on. They only serve to justify enormous fees for consulting firms.

The key point is that either Tassie has am AFL team and hopefully a brand new stadium, or it doesn't.

Get the AFL team and who knows what flows from there. I do know that the AFL will back the project to the end, though, as they have with Gold Coast and GWS.

And once you HAVE a brilliant new stadium with a roof down by the beautiful waterfront area it is a lot easier to find things to put in it. Who knows what 'sticks'. Maybe it is a gather round? or concerts?

But it could be something else entirely - thinking bigger, it's probably not hard to see a world where Tassie looks at Melbourne's insane population and property growth and goes down a path of attracting Melbourne people and businesses to move there. Great lifestyle, beautiful city... And an AFL team is a pretty big drawcard tbh

The forecasting stuff is true, and whilst most here want a team they don't want an insane investment in a stadium at one end of the island, which might or probably might not earn anything. We can fly to Melbourne you know for concerts etc.

If the AFL is willing to dump as much money into the Devils as it has into GWS and GC (they are owned by the AFL you know) then maybe it might be worth it. Not sure how you know they will do this, however? We are not a growth area and never will be. Try comparing Ireland to the UK and you will get some idea.

So, we spend a billion dollars on what 'sticks'? Is that your vibe?

Tassie doesn't want to be Melbourne, endless suburbs with no facilities. An AFL team is not a big draw card and most here already follow their own teams, we can fly to Melbourne in an hour to live the AFL dream.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

The point being all cargo has to be freighted on ships, if you read the previous conversation it relates to you would understand. They were suggesting flying acts in and I pointed out neither airport can take container planes.

Hobart airport can land 747s, so air freight is certainly possible.

 

[Saucery]

Hobart airport can land 747s, so air freight is certainly possible.

Yes, it can handle 'limited 747' use (only 4 landings since 1989), very dependent upon weather. So it's possible but improbable, unless it's air force one. And air freight is not only possible but goes on every day, container air freight is another thing.

The airports here can't regularly take cargo planes that can carry container loads, both Launceston and Hobart are relatively small, domestic airports. So, any containers would have to be stripped, the gear put on to smaller pallet cons (that's if it even fits) and then sent. Unloaded here, reloaded after the event, sent back to the mainland and decanted back into trucking containers. Doesn't seem a very good business decision for the acts, does it?

 

[Jim Prideaux]

Yes, it can handle 'limited 747' use (only 4 landings since 1989), very dependent upon weather. So it's possible but improbable, unless it's air force one. And air freight is not only possible but goes on every day, container air freight is another thing.

The airports here can't regularly take cargo planes that can carry container loads, both Launceston and Hobart are relatively small, domestic airports. So, any containers would have to be stripped, the gear put on to smaller pallet cons (that's if it even fits) and then sent. Unloaded here, reloaded after the event, sent back to the mainland and decanted back into trucking containers. Doesn't seem a very good business decision for the acts, does it?

A lot of the gear for larger acts would be transported exactly that way. Only the biggest would require container freight, which could be done via tasfreight, how ever acts that large (Swift, Beyoncé) are unlikely to ever come to Hobart.

Medium large acts however could absolutely could use regular sir freight, or sea freight. That’s who they’re looking at.

 

[Saucery]

A lot of the gear for larger acts would be transported exactly that way. Only the biggest would require container freight, which could be done via tasfreight, how ever acts that large (Swift, Beyoncé) are unlikely to ever come to Hobart.

Medium large acts however could absolutely could use regular sir freight, or sea freight. That’s who they’re looking at.

And you know this for sure? How? You seem very sure of yourself, do you work in the industry or just like to make up convenient ideas. Why would they? The extra on costs are exorbitant. Do you just think bands will go through all that extra cost and stress when they can just play an extra date on the mainland? 500,000 population, 250,000 in the south. Newcastle has more in one spot.

 

[btdg]

The forecasting stuff is true, and whilst most here want a team they don't want an insane investment in a stadium at one end of the island, which might or probably might not earn anything. We can fly to Melbourne you know for concerts etc.

If the AFL is willing to dump as much money into the Devils as it has into GWS and GC (they are owned by the AFL you know) then maybe it might be worth it. Not sure how you know they will do this, however? We are not a growth area and never will be. Try comparing Ireland to the UK and you will get some idea.

So, we spend a billion dollars on what 'sticks'? Is that your vibe?

Tassie doesn't want to be Melbourne, endless suburbs with no facilities. An AFL team is not a big draw card and most here already follow their own teams, we can fly to Melbourne in an hour to live the AFL dream.

I think you underestimate how much the general footy public wants a team in Tassie. There is a romance to having a team in every state. The AFL will back it once launched because it would be desperately unpopular otherwise, and terrible for the game.

And yes, you should build a new stadium, for a billion dollars, because you need something.

You can comment about Melbourne being 'endless suburbs with no facilities' but that simply isn't true. Those suburbs are there because Melbourne is there - and Melbourne has a lot. Sports, art, music, restaurants, beaches, everything really. It might take some people a 60 minute drive, but they can do that easily and cheaply, whenever they want.

You say you can 'just fly to Melbourne', but you can't. Based on a rough estimate, there are about 15 flights from Tassie to Melbourne per day, which means about 2000 people total. For a major event, let's quadruple that - let's imagine some people travel up to 3 days ahead and others fly indirectly via Sydney. Even so, there is a hard cap of probably 8-10,000 people who can attend events in Melbourne. That's a third of the number who could attend a football match, with the cost being $500+ (minimum) compared to $30-odd to attend locally. It's not even comparable. How many times a year can you realistically attend an AFL match.

The only question for me should be size of the stadium. 27k feels slightly small but I guess if that allows the roof then maybe worth it.

 

[Saucery]

I think you underestimate how much the general footy public wants a team in Tassie. There is a romance to having a team in every state. The AFL will back it once launched because it would be desperately unpopular otherwise, and terrible for the game.

And yes, you should build a new stadium, for a billion dollars, because you need something.

You can comment about Melbourne being 'endless suburbs with no facilities' but that simply isn't true. Those suburbs are there because Melbourne is there - and Melbourne has a lot. Sports, art, music, restaurants, beaches, everything really. It might take some people a 60 minute drive, but they can do that easily and cheaply, whenever they want.

You say you can 'just fly to Melbourne', but you can't. Based on a rough estimate, there are about 15 flights from Tassie to Melbourne per day, which means about 2000 people total. For a major event, let's quadruple that - let's imagine some people travel up to 3 days ahead and others fly indirectly via Sydney. Even so, there is a hard cap of probably 8-10,000 people who can attend events in Melbourne. That's a third of the number who could attend a football match, with the cost being $500+ (minimum) compared to $30-odd to attend locally. It's not even comparable. How many times a year can you realistically attend an AFL match.

The only question for me should be size of the stadium. 27k feels slightly small but I guess if that allows the roof then maybe worth it.

What the actual heck? We need you to tell us what we need? Seriously?

And yes, Melbourne is an endless waste land of sprawling suburbs, when a guy says it takes him 45 mins to drive to a shopping center 13km away as there is no public transport.

'Did I make the right move buying here?': Residents face an hour of traffic just to get out of their housing estate

Traffic congestion is a growing frustration in Melbourne's booming outer suburbs, where experts say growth is far outpacing infrastructure. Pollsters say voters in the outer suburbs feel neglected because of a lack of services, an issue that may cost votes at this month's election.

www.abc.net.au

"His wife, Athirah Basalamah, allows at least 45 minutes to take their daughter Madinah to school in Donnybrook, which is just 3 kilometres away. The quickest I can do is half an hour, but it took up to an hour and a half one day," she said."

Here in Launceston, I live in the countryside and yet can get to the center of my city in 15mins and its about 10min from side to side. We have hospitals, shops, amazing Victorian era parks, astounding architecture, great restaurants (using fresh local produce) cataract gorge, good schools etc etc. There is a shit ton of agricultural old money here. And if we want to go to the big smoke occasionally it's a 1hr flight (yes who from the North would drive 2hr to Hobart when you can fly to Melbourne in 1hr? Hence the stadium placement issue).

Once again there are only 500,000 people in Tas, those who want to fly to Melbourne can do so very easily. You obviously have no idea and please stop pretending you do.

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[Nugett]

I’m curious with the stadium, will the north end of the stadium just sell Boags, while the southern just sells cascade?

 

[Saucery]

I’m curious with the stadium, will the north end of the stadium just sell Boags, while the southern just sells cascade?

Whatever the AFL decides

 

[footyscribe]

"yes who from the North would drive 2hr to Hobart when you can fly to Melbourne in 1hr? Hence the stadium placement issue"

Always chuckle at takes like this.

From your front driveway in Invermay to the middle of Murray Street in Hobart is 2.5 hours in a car, and 2.5 hours back. Maybe $60-70 in fuel.

From your front driveway in Invermay to the middle of Melbourne is a 15min car trip to the airport, arriving 1 hour before your flight takes off, 1 hour and 10 in the air, 15 to 20 minutes disembark and get to a cab/uber/skybus, 30 mins into the city for a 3.5 hour total if everything goes smoothly.

Then you have to get back. Also, you pay for return flights and transport, and most likely accommodation.

It is in no way shape or form easier, quicker or cheaper for a Launceston resident to watch a game of footy or a concert in Melbourne than it will be in Hobart.

 

[cactuscall]

I agree, why be cold and miserable in Melbourne when you can be cold and miserable in Tazzie for much less money.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

And you know this for sure? How? You seem very sure of yourself, do you work in the industry or just like to make up convenient ideas. Why would they? The extra on costs are exorbitant. Do you just think bands will go through all that extra cost and stress when they can just play an extra date on the mainland? 500,000 population, 250,000 in the south. Newcastle has more in one spot.

Bloody hell, being accused of being sure of myself by you.

Yes, I do work in an adjacent events industry that in particular involves moving 8 or so 40ft’s via rail, road and sea.

 

[Saucery]

Bloody hell, being accused of being sure of myself by you.

Yes, I do work in an adjacent events industry that in particular involves moving 8 or so 40ft’s via rail, road and sea.

OK then you have a better understanding than me granted, but the ability of something to happen and it actually happening, especially when there is so many logistical and financial constraints to be overcome, renders the point moot.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

OK then you have a better understanding than me granted, but the ability of something to happen and it actually happening, especially when there is so many logistical and financial constraints to be overcome, renders the point moot.

I think it will work fine as an entertainment venue, the freight costs won’t be a major issue, a the potential for weekend trip tourism will be well worth it. I would happily overnight in Tassie to watch a gig, and I’m sure others would too.

 

[Father Jack]

I’m curious with the stadium, will the north end of the stadium just sell Boags, while the southern just sells cascade?

Only if they build it at Oatlands

 

[boncer34]

Never, we can fly to the mainland you know. No matter how nice the stadium is they wouldn't spend tens of thousands of dollars and waste days on the road and on ships to play a gig here, when Newcastle has the same population in one spot. You're dreaming.

You know that other people can access those same flights you use yeah?

 

[Saucery]

You know that other people can access those same flights you use yeah?

Point being?

 

[boncer34]

Point being?

That bands won't waste days on the road

 

[Nugett]

Only if they build it at Oatlands

Oatlands wouldn’t be a bad spot. Cold during winter though

 

[Saucery]

That bands won't waste days on the road

You have any idea how expensive it is to air freight in equipment form Melbourne to Hobart? It's around $8 per KG, how much do you think a stage set weights? 1,2, 10 ton? So, a small 1 ton of gear is an extra $16,000 dollars both ways, for larger acts up to 10 ton is $160,000. For a gig of around 15,000 (max 23,000)? So, they save on time, but the cost escalates exponentially. Do they just plow that back into the ticket costs?

 

[boncer34]

You have any idea how expensive it is to air freight in equipment form Melbourne to Hobart? It's around $8 per KG, how much do you think a stage set weights? 1,2, 10 ton? So, a small 1 ton of gear is an extra $16,000 dollars both ways, for larger acts up to 10 ton is $160,000. For a gig of around 15,000 (max 23,000)? So, they save on time, but the cost escalates exponentially. Do they just plow that back into the ticket costs?

Have you already forgotten this post?

I think it will work fine as an entertainment venue, the freight costs won’t be a major issue, a the potential for weekend trip tourism will be well worth it. I would happily overnight in Tassie to watch a gig, and I’m sure others would too.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

Have you already forgotten this post?

Is this for me?